Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[roman2325] 28/10/2009 19:06

Hi Dave - I know them aswell; there a few funds out there like ASPL and ICV - all trading at significant discounts yet I fear you need to take a very long-term view...how long have you been holding for?

[davebowler] 28/10/2009 16:29

I am a holder of ASPL a Vietnam and Malaysia property play -its way below asset value and well worth a look.

[roman2325] 28/10/2009 16:24

I'm a great believer in the Vietnam growth story and I rate Chris Gradel and the Vinacapital team highly - I will be a buyer yet am in no hurry at the moment..

[dickbush] 28/10/2009 16:05

Ex-Im Bank listed from OTC. Represents 8.7% of the fund.

Vietnam market valuation may be a little overcooked but this fund is at a 30% discount to NAV. I'm in for the long run.

[roman2325] 28/10/2009 08:23

In fact I think I'll go short rather than long in the current climate!!

[roman2325] 27/10/2009 08:39

I used to hold this in 2007 when the hot money ramped up to $4 and now see it as a far more stable investment yet believe it could be slightly overcooked at this level - does anybody hold any other Vietnam plays or solely this?

[dickbush] 23/10/2009 09:35

and the only one to go down today!

[dickbush] 22/10/2009 11:53

Now at 624 and one of the few far east markets to rise today.

[dickbush] 15/10/2009 09:08

Main market up 2%, minor market up 3%.

[washbrook] 14/10/2009 11:23

SEPEMBER 2009 monthlty update:-

[washbrook] 14/10/2009 11:15

I started the graph for the 3.3.2009-FTSE100 hit a closing low for the year at 3512.09.
On 9.3.09 it was on an intra day low for the year but closed above the 3.3.09.
The lines performing to Vietnam
FTSE100=Green
New City Energy=Blue
£gold index=Orange
City Resources High yield Trust=Black

The next graph from 31.12.2007-the £ gold index outperforms all.


CLICK GRAPH TO EXPAND

[dickbush] 14/10/2009 09:40

Through 600!

[dickbush] 12/10/2009 09:53

New high. Less than 1% from 600.

[dickbush] 09/10/2009 15:15

Latest, end-Sep, NAV due out soon.

Main market was up circa 6% in September.

[dickbush] 09/10/2009 09:21

Hanoi market hit a new high for this bull market. Main market just a tad below.

[dickbush] 03/10/2009 00:18

Vietnam 4.6% Growth Estimate May Rise Again, IMF Says (Update1)
By Jason Folkmanis

Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The International Monetary Fund said its latest growth estimate for Vietnam may be revised upward after the economy accelerated in the third quarter.

Vietnam's gross domestic product expanded 5.8 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, up from 4.5 percent in the previous three months, according to figures this week from the General Statistics Office in Hanoi. The government is targeting growth of at least 5 percent this year.

Growth for the first nine months of 2009 reached 4.6 percent and the IMF yesterday increased its forecast for the full year to that figure, up from a previous estimate of 3.5 percent. Still, the latest projection didn't take the third- quarter numbers into account, according to Benedict Bingham, the IMF's senior Vietnam resident representative.

"It may get revised upward," Bingham said in a telephone interview today from Hanoi. "The encouraging resilience of economic activity reflects partly the underlying strength of the Vietnamese economy, but the stimulus package clearly also contributed to the uptick in activity in the second and third quarters."

Vietnam put in place a fiscal stimulus package that it values at 8.6 percent of GDP in a bid to boost the economy, which grew 3.1 percent in the first quarter, the slowest pace on record. Measures included tax exemptions, reductions and deferments for businesses, and an interest-rate subsidy program.

"The robust rebound in construction suggests that the stimulus package was quite a significant factor, at least in that sector," Bingham said.

Construction Expands

Industry and construction, which account for 40 percent of the Vietnamese economy, grew 4.5 percent in the first nine months of the year, with the sub-category measuring construction alone expanding 9.7 percent. Services, which make up 38 percent of GDP, grew 5.9 percent in the first three quarters.

"Vietnam's recovery has been solid and driven by domestic demand," Tai Hui, head of Southeast Asian economic research at Standard Chartered Plc in Singapore, wrote in a Sept. 29 note. "Vietnam has weathered the global economic crisis relatively well."

The stimulus package may increase Vietnam's budget deficit to as much as 10.3 percent of GDP this year from 4.1 percent in 2008, the Asian Development Bank said last month. Inflation pressures re-emerged in Vietnam in the second quarter, the ADB said.

Vietnamese inflation accelerated in September for the first time in more than a year. The IMF is "encouraged" by recent government statements that there will be a greater focus on reining in inflation, Bingham said.

"Vietnam still has to maintain a careful balance between maintaining macroeconomic stability and supporting economic activity," he said. A greater focus on inflation and the balance of payments "is appropriate in our view, especially given the signs that economic activity is holding up relatively well," Bingham said.

[dickbush] 02/10/2009 10:59

Market down again for a 2 day decline of circa 6%. Now only slightly higher than end-Sep. NAV should still be circa $2.44. ie VOF at a 30% discount at $1.70.

[tenapen] 01/10/2009 18:10

Good ;-) It allows others to get 'in' without the fear of buying at the top.

Regards.

[dickbush] 01/10/2009 10:15

First bad day in a while. Main index down 2%. Seems to be having trouble with round numbers, ie 600.

[dickbush] 25/9/2009 12:47

FWIW August 2008 to August 2009 the fund outperformed by circa 3% (market essentially flat over the year).

[dickbush] 24/9/2009 13:07

Marc Faber bullish on China, India and Vietnam. 22/Sep

[dickbush] 22/9/2009 07:36

Vietnam Economy May Expand 5.5% This Quarter, Thoi Bao Reports
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By Nguyen Dieu Tu Uyen

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnam's economy may expand 5.5 percent in the third quarter and grow 6.5 percent in the last three months of the year, Thoi Bao Kinh Te Vietnam newspaper reported, citing the Ministry of Planning and Investment.

Economic growth may accelerate as local and international markets recover, the ministry forecast at a meeting of the National Assembly's economic committee yesterday, Thoi Bao said. The predicted expansion in the second half of 2009 would help Vietnam achieve its full-year growth target of between 5 percent and 5.2 percent, the newspaper said.

Inflation may accelerate to 7 percent at the end of the year, the planning ministry was cited by Thoi Bao as saying.

Vietnam's economy expanded 6.2 percent last year, the slowest pace since 1999, according to government figures.