Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[dickbush] 10/8/2009 09:28

Market Update - This month the Prime Minister announced a downward revision in the full year credit growth target from 30% to 25%, which would infer a significant contraction from 1H09 when credit growth surpassed 17%, in a strong sign that the Government will be proactive in combating inflationary pressures.

A 4th straight month of monthly price increases combined with rising commodity prices and strong 1H credit growth brings the spectre of inflation back to Vietnam, however, on an average basis it is still improving down to 3.31% YoY. The trade deficit through the first 7 months is estimated at $3.38bn, much lower than 2008 levels but picking up especially when considering that through 1Q09 Vietnam was in surplus.
Combining the above mentioned potential early warning signs with a Fitch Ratings Dong downgrade from BB to BB- at the beginning of July has led to some renewed USD hoarding behaviour putting some mild pressure on the Dong this month. The black market rate is VND18,530/$1, a record high since March 28, 2009, while in the official market rates are largely unchanged at VND17,810/$1. However, the State Bank of Vietnam assured (while not giving a specific number) that in the final week of July they released a flood of US dollar liquidity to banks with shortages in an effort to assuage concerns.

The VN-Index had a largely down and up month in July, finishing at 466.76 or up 4.1%. Some of the above mentioned macro indicators combined with a Government crackdown of improper use of subsidized loans entering into equities were likely responsible for the market bottoming out the month at 412.88 on 20th July, but continued strong performance in global markets combined with ongoing strong earnings reports led to a strong rally in the last week and half of the month.

By end July, first half 2009 results had come out for most listed and large OTC companies. Overall, it is a good earnings season with most companies reporting very encouraging numbers, many even beat investors expectations by a long mile. Sectors which have done particularly well are those that serve the domestic market and therefore benefited from Vietnams improving economic environment in 1H09. These include Staples Consumers, Utilities, Property, Construction Materials and Auto Components. Companies in these sectors have generally achieved 60% or more of their FY09 profit target in just the first 6 months, with some even fulfilling more than 100%.

Banks have also done very well, with average year-on-year income growth of about 10% despite a narrower interest spread compared to last year. Both deposit growth and credit growth are now at 20-30% year-to-date. Pharmaceuticals companies having benefited from lower material costs finally managed to expand their margin and achieving full year profit target appears very likely. Companies in Energy sector performed in line with their own profit target; however, we would probably see a margin squeeze in 2H09 for drilling service providers as the current rates are 30% lower than those in 1H09. Companies experiencing poor performance in 1H09 were mainly in Aqua-product Exporting, Marine Transportation and Rubber sectors. We would not expect remarkable earnings improvement for these sectors in 2H09.

[washbrook] 04/8/2009 12:57

Why Thailand is the PLACE to be
SEE You Tube-19.7.09 on :-

[washbrook] 04/8/2009 12:28

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[pudpud] 04/8/2009 12:13

Thanks washbrook

[washbrook] 04/8/2009 12:04

Pudpud
The stock is up 56% this year

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see 30.6.09 Quarterly report:-

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current discount to NAV = -44.12%
share price=75c
NAV=$1.34

[pudpud] 04/8/2009 11:48

Anyone looked into VNL?

[dickbush] 04/8/2009 10:21

VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund Limited


Statement of intent to invest in closed-end funds

VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund Limited ("VOF" or "the Company"), an
AIM-traded investment company established to target key growth segments within
Vietnam's emerging market, announces its intention to invest in shares of other Vietnam-focused closed-end funds trading at substantial discounts.

The Board of Directors of the Company ("the Directors") have elected, subject to market conditions and following certain procedures, to allow VOF to invest up to 10 percent of its Net Asset Value ("NAV") at the time of purchase in shares of other closed-end Vietnam funds. This includes VinaLand Limited ("VNL"), an AIM-traded closed-end fund also managed by VinaCapital Investment Management Limited ("VinaCapital" or "the Investment Manager") with a primary focus on real estate investment.

Investment in VinaLand / Fee rebate

Real estate investment has been a key strategy for VOF since its inception.
After VinaLand was established in March 2006, VOF has selectively co-invested
alongside VinaLand in its direct real estate investments. However, over the past 6 months VNL shares have traded at discounts of up to 80%. In light of this substantial discount, the Board has elected to allow VOF to make its real estate investments indirectly through VNL shares.

The Investment Manager will rebate to VOF the management fees corresponding to the portion of VOF's holding in VNL shares.

As described in VNL's admission document, VOF has the right of first refusal to take up to a 25 percent direct stake in newly acquired VNL assets. VOF will
temporarily suspend this right during such periods of VOF investment in VNL
shares until further notice.

As at the date of this announcement, the Company held 14,749,044 shares in VNL, representing a 2.95 percent equity stake in VNL and 1.49 percent of the
Company's NAV.

In respect of any VOF investment in other funds managed by VinaCapital, the
Directors have instituted the following protocols. VOF will enter into fixed
arrangements with an independent broker to specifically purchase on its behalf
and within certain pre-set parameters, ordinary shares of the other fund or
funds managed by VinaCapital. VOF intends to acquire and hold shares in other
funds managed by VinaCapital via such arrangements on a rolling basis.
Furthermore, only the Independent Directors of the VOF Board shall be authorised to provide instructions to the third party broker and to vote on behalf of VOF at any shareholder meetings of the other funds managed by VinaCapital.

In the event that VOF invests in listed closed-end investment funds not managed by VinaCapital, the above protocols will not apply, and the Investment Manager shall exercise its judgment on behalf of the Company's shareholders within itsstandard trading authorities.
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Sounds like a good idea. I still don't understand why VOF's shareholders didn't vote to allow the company to buy in its own shares when the discount is large. Given the difficulty for institutions, never mind private investors, to value and deal in Vietnamese shares, I would have thought the discount could turn into a premium when investors get enthusiastic again about Vietnam.

[dickbush] 27/7/2009 09:36

Vietnam market has bounced back with the other Far East markets. Despite underperforming its still up almost 15% versus end-May while VOF is only up circa 5%.

[dickbush] 20/7/2009 10:35

Vietnam market now down 100 points since June 9th, and back to end-May level. Down 3.7% today while the overall S&P Asia Index was up 2.9%. Very poor performance. Presumably, the NAV is still circa $2.12.

[davebowler] 09/7/2009 11:27

Here is a cheap way into Vietnamese property Aseana Property

[dickbush] 09/7/2009 10:38

Hi, hijinx

I assume you got out at a better price than today's. So well done.

What are you looking for as a catalyst to get back in? My average is well below the current price but I was thinking of topping up about 10-15 cents below the current level. I am a long term investor and expect to be a holder for many years. What do you think?

[dickbush] 08/7/2009 13:35

End-June NAV due soon. Should be around $2.12. So discount to nav is circa 37%. Big loss of confidence over the past month.

[dickbush] 01/7/2009 12:51

Vietnam Reports Faster Growth, as Asian Economy Figures Improve
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By Jason Folkmanis

July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnam's economic growth accelerated in the second quarter, buoyed by construction activity, amid indications of a broader regional recovery.

The country's gross domestic product grew 3.9 percent in the six months through June from a year earlier after gaining 3.1 percent in the first quarter, the General Statistics Office in Hanoi said. The economy expanded 4.5 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to today's statement.

Stronger economic expansion in Vietnam adds to evidence that Asia may be starting to emerge from the worst of the global recession. Stimulus spending that the Vietnamese government values at more than $8 billion has helped drive loan growth in the Southeast Asian country, spurring construction.

"The one common factor in the improvement in the Asian growth numbers is aggressive growth in liquidity," said Ken Peng, a Beijing-based economist at Citigroup Inc. "Vietnam has taken measures to encourage loans. The impact in Asia of stimulus spending can probably sustain better growth conditions for the rest of this year."

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development on June 24 raised its forecast for its 30 member nations for the first time in two years as the global recession shows signs of abating. The International Monetary Fund last week boosted its outlook for Australia for this year and next.

[dickbush] 25/6/2009 08:58

Premier-Led Group Makes Oil, Gas Discovery in Vietnam (Update2)

By Jason Folkmanis

June 24 (Bloomberg) -- A Premier Oil Plc-led group found oil and gas off the coast of southern Vietnam in its first well in the area, as the U.K. company seeks to build on earlier drilling success in the Southeast Asian nation.

Testing at two reservoir zones in Block 07/03 produced flows at a combined rate of 3,265 barrels of oil and 8.1 million cubic feet of gas a day, Premier said today in a statement. The London-based explorer has previously said the Chim Sao and Dua fields, located in an adjacent block, are commercially viable.

The Premier-led group, which also includes Vietnam American Exploration Co., Australia's Pan Pacific Petroleum NL and a unit of Abu Dhabi-based Mubadala Development Co., began drilling the Ca Rong Do exploration well in Block 07/03 last month. The area was opened up for drilling by a 2003 accord between the Indonesian and Vietnamese governments.

"The flow rates are similar to what Chim Sao flowed in testing," Phil MacLaurin, Vietnam country manager for Premier, said today by telephone from Ho Chi Minh City. "That is good news because it shows that reservoir-quality sandstones are present."

Premier advanced 3.6 percent to 1,097 pence in London trading, the biggest one-day gain in three weeks.

The prospect targeted by the Ca Rong Do well may hold 80 million barrels, Pan Pacific Petroleum said in a May presentation.

[dickbush] 23/6/2009 10:04

After the last two days the Vietnamese market is off 14.5% from its rally high.

[dickbush] 18/6/2009 11:23

Share price decline now suggests that the discount to NAV is over 30%.

[dickbush] 10/6/2009 08:35

Main market down 3%. Virtually every other Far East market was up a similar amount. Still, profit-taking was due after the recent strong run.

[dickbush] 09/6/2009 09:29

Another 2% rise today. Now less than 10% away from a breakout.




Note that the chart is through yesterday. Go to the 1 day chart for today's performance.

[dickbush] 08/6/2009 16:46

A 90 point rise in the main inex has translated into a rise of 9% in the net asset value. Presumably this is conservative reflecting the amount of non-quoted holdings. Even so there has been a further 90 point rise through today suggesting the nav, again conservatively, is circa $2.22. So the shares are trading at a minimum of a 27% discount to nav.

[dickbush] 08/6/2009 08:53

Vietnam markets up 4.8% and 6.8% today. Rest of Far East mixed. Only 12% to go before it gets past the 12 month high on the main market. Then its a clear run to the old high.