Victoria Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[waterloo01] 26/1/2017 15:10

Company making news (or ought to be). If they can prove up the resource increase then long term contracts follow (no doubt at lower prices) unless someone comes in and buys the lot (including Grim).

[omega1525] 26/1/2017 15:05

bronco
yes, exactly, but the need to prove they can supply it for 20 years also, not think they can.

[broncowarrior] 26/1/2017 14:58

Thanks Omega. But the new well even on existing reserves will alow them to increase daily capacity, that is the reason for doing it I believe. They need to show they can belt out 40-50 scuffs.

[deutsch3] 26/1/2017 14:52

One more theory to add. - The oil industry woes mixed in with global politics has severely damaged confidence in the oil market and investing in the oil market. - The price is down, America is now self sufficient and exporting, Iran Iraq and soon Syria will have oil coming out of the ground on its own, and maybe China will hiccup if and when Trump has his way. - when the price tumbled lots of oil investors lost out and some big time ...fingers burned!! - So where to put your money ....Oil in Africa?? - not convinced - still a lot of nutters running around looking for a place to camp and create havoc next ....... The Board and Foo need to be much more proactive to overcome these widespread negative sentiments. They may think that they are home safe? - but Africa is Africa and I worry that their complacency may come back to haunt them. - This will soon come good ( hopefully) - but Africa is Africa and I hope they ( Foo & Co) are not rolling the dice too many times. - Stick or twist? - I wonder!

[clunes100] 26/1/2017 14:48

Graham, you are right I cannot prove it is 60, it is a guestimate based on the VOG shareholders that I know and those that I have met at the AGM, so a sample of about 50-60 people. If anything, I have been kind and the average age is probably higher.

I am not saying it is the only factor but it would account for some of the really small sells.

However, I do agree with you that the uncertainties are keeping the lid on the share price.

[fatnacker] 26/1/2017 14:45

still a long way to go yet.

[olieslim] 26/1/2017 14:32

Thx.

Very quiet here. You'd expect a scramble for shares here with that drilling nearing its conclusion.

?

[omega1525] 26/1/2017 14:12

bronco
These wells are about flow rates and moving us from p2 reserves (proven and possible) to p1 reserves (proven) if they can prove that we can supply amount of gas the new power plant needs for 20 years, they will sign up. The sideways drill will take them to a structure they could not log from the original well. When this is logged, they may be able to prove (p1) the amount of gas their, not guess what they might have their (p2). The straight well is going deeper and may find new reserves in the unexplored 3ed lower structure, and increase p1 reserves.

[grahamburn] 26/1/2017 14:07

Clunes. IMO the assumption that the average age of VOG investors 10 years ago was 60 is unproven (unless you know otherwise), so the whole theory on continual small sells is blown out of the window, save, perhaps, for CGT planning at the end of a positive year for the majority of the stockmarket.

The company has simply lost its attractions as a safe yet speculative bet - too many background issues (eg management, inter company deals that favour the third parties, difficult minority interest structure, failure to turn potential into reality [edit: in a reasonable time] etc etc.)

[fatnacker] 26/1/2017 12:59

I do understand your theory Clunes, I'm still not convinced that's the reason, it is a possibility though.

[clunes100] 26/1/2017 11:59

Fats - imagine a bell curve of investors in VOG 10 years ago where the average age of the 10,000 VOG investors was 60 and the spread of ages was 50-85 years barring a few exceptions.

Now imagine that the majority of the investors are long term and have seen the share price collapse and diluted, so that their shareholdings are very small in number and value, plus we have all aged 10 years.

For all the reasons I have mentioned in previous posts and as time passes we move further up the curve of those that have to sell. The reasons the number of small sells are also increasing more than one might expect is that after a good year for the average investor (unless they are heavily into BT and GKP...........), and as we near the tax year end, most investors look at their portfolios and look to crystallise losses against profits. That does not mean that they don't buy back in if they remain convinced by VOG's prospects.

This may all sound simplistic but I am convinced that this is the cause of the steady trickle of small sales.

I am still more perplexed by AEX's valuation being north of £90m and VOG's being in the low £30m - theories on the bulletin board - please! Although I realise we have covered this subject and it boils down to uncertainty created by a poor shareholder experience and a whole pile of contributing factors.

[fatnacker] 26/1/2017 11:16

and again, 44 shares, worth about £14.

[olieslim] 26/1/2017 10:48

not thinking blvn

[fatnacker] 26/1/2017 10:44

Its a ridiculously good fit Oileslim and I would not be surprised if it was, just hope its not, at this stage of the game anyway.

[sleveen] 26/1/2017 10:41

Not much option or he'd lose the lot.

[fatnacker] 26/1/2017 10:38

and yet the project partner is still pouring in multi millions of dollars, lets skip the facts though, facts are boring.

[sleveen] 26/1/2017 10:11

BW Trash away.

SRB is overvalued in comparison to say AAZ, which may explain the unexpected poor share price action.

But VOG is outlandishly overvalued.Revenue to crash in 2017 due to 60/40 split. See my previous posts for further analysis.

[sleveen] 26/1/2017 10:08

HAAK

Being positive, after all this is the positive thread.

[olieslim] 26/1/2017 10:07

just look at the map

[fatnacker] 26/1/2017 09:27

would make sense if it was with vog but I hope its not.

[broncowarrior] 26/1/2017 09:25

Plus a 400 share sale, all a bit odd. For every buy there is a subsequent sell, usually a tiny amount.

Agree with you dean. Positive drilling results significantly derisk this; if 40mm is spent for nowt, that is obviously a problem but good flow rates and then renewal of the power station deal and a deal with the third power station should get us moving.

Given the size of the third power station we can't supply to them on current capacity, we need the new reserves from these drills. That third power station is bigger than the other two put together...

[dan de lion] 26/1/2017 08:47

BLVN in talks to farm out Bomono.