Venture Production Share Discussion Threads

[exmooroil] 12/8/2009 14:48

Credit Suisse has today announced a holding increased from 5% to >6%.

[bountyhunter] 12/8/2009 14:45

Do they have to announce the % or could they just extend the offer date?
If they do have to announce then I think your guess of 58% could be fairly close to the mark Ed, imho

[zingaro] 12/8/2009 14:19

The Offer initially remains open for acceptance until 1.00 p.m. (London time) on 13 August 2009.The Offer initially remains open for acceptance until 1.00 p.m. (London time) on 13 August 2009.

Anyone know when the result will be announced ?

[davidhp] 12/8/2009 13:24

The amusing thing is, if Cen-tricker don't get the 75% they're after (which looks increasingly likely!) they'll simply be forced to buy the remainder in the market (earlier post re. European issue).

Currently the market is shying away from this stock because, in this climate, investors fear uncertainty. When that uncertainty is lifted, one way or the other, the remaining 'un-delisted' VPC will rise and Centrica will get shafted in the small hole trying to pick up the remainder at a 'fairer' price (to us!)... like a one-legged drunken tramp chasing Rizlas in a windy park, Cen-tricker will have a lot of fun on it's hands!

BTW is it well paid work, Phillis?

DYOTaxReturn

[ed 123] 11/8/2009 13:12

Anyone for a fun challenge on the side?

What total percentage will Centrica have (ie. their almost 30% + % acceptances by other holders) at the first closing date of the offer?

I'll go for 58%.

[phillis] 11/8/2009 12:30

no white knight then

Most PIs will sit on their hands so institutions will - as always - determine whay happens on first closing.
Probably a chance that 50% will not be achieved and offer will be extended

[bountyhunter] 10/8/2009 18:37

no problem, I had to look it up to be sure having heard the 6 mths mentioned elsewhere in other takeover situations

[ygor705] 10/8/2009 17:57

Thx for the clarification Bountyhunter................don't think that rule was about in my day.

[phillis] 10/8/2009 16:30

chunky sales this afternoon

[hysteron] 09/8/2009 09:30

Centrica closes in as Venture shareholders decide on hostile takeover
Published Date: 09 August 2009
By Rosemary Gallagher

THE City expects Centrica's hostile takeover bid for Aberdeen-based oil and gas exploration company Venture Production to get the go-ahead from shareholders.
Thursday is the first closing date for Venture shareholders to decide whether or not to back the £1.3 billion offer. But analysts say most shareholders will wait until at least 26 August, when the European Commission (EC) is expected to give the deal clearance on competition issues. The final cut-off point for the deal is 14 September, 60 days from when Centrica posted its formal offer document.

Al Stanton, analyst with RBC Capital Markets, said: "The key event is regulatory clearance from the EC. If the EC gives its approval, Centrica can make a mandatory offer and start buying stock in the marketplace. Why would shareholders tend their shares today, and have to wait for payment, when they could shortly get 845 pence?".................

[bountyhunter] 08/8/2009 18:08

Hi scatty, yes that outcome certainly seems possible but they have to get to 50% first or the bid will fail before that even becomes a consideration. I think it's 50:50 whether they even get to 50% short term given the price, and even if they do as you say they then need to get to 75% or another bid just 6 mths later is quite likely imho given how desperate CNA are to secure increased NS gas production and developments! ;-)
imho dyor

[scatty] 08/8/2009 15:05

Thanks bh - clarification at last. They will presumably extend the offer period in the hope of reaching 75%. Then six month wait (at least) until a take-out recommended offer at a sensible level??

[bountyhunter] 08/8/2009 13:55

if CNA get more than 50% but less than 75% and the offer then "became or was declared wholly unconditional" it appears from the takeover panel's regulations that they only have to wait 6 months (not 12) before making a higher bid...

35.3 DELAY OF 6 MONTHS BEFORE ACQUISITIONS ABOVE THE OFFER VALUE
Except with the consent of the Panel, if a person, together with any
person acting in concert with him, holds shares carrying more than
50% of the voting rights of a company, neither that person nor any
person acting in concert with him may, within 6 months of the closure
of any previous offer made by him to the shareholders of that company
which became or was declared wholly unconditional, make a second
offer to any shareholder in that company, or acquire any interest in
shares in that company, on more favourable terms than those made
available under the previous offer (see also Rule 6.2(a)). For this
purpose the value of a securities exchange offer shall be calculated as
at the date the offer closed. In addition, special deals with favourable
conditions attached may not be entered into during this 6 months
period (see also Rule 16).

[scatty] 08/8/2009 12:01

ygor - I agree with your logic, and am in exactly the same position. I don't think there is a need for any immediate decision. However, refering to an FT comment which I posted here a couple of weeks ago, I think a recommended bid within 12 months remains a possibility if CNA need to get beyond 75%.

[ygor705] 07/8/2009 18:14

Salpara111

I agree with your thought process ie CNA will probably get more than 50% but less than 75%. In these circumstances Phillis is correct, CNA will almost certainly make the offer unconditional and extend the offer to shake out as many VPC holders as possible to try and get to 75%. By then it will be too late for VPC to attract a White Knight. If this happens I will accept the CNA offer for the 50% of my holding that I retain.

If CNA don't get to 50.0001% then the bid will have failed as CNA have said that they won't increase it unless a competitive offer comes in. The old rule was that an offeror could not make another offer for a year but that may have changed. Anyway, my belief is that the VPC share price will fall in these circumstances and I will be looking to buy back the 50% of my holding that I have sold at around 835p.

Thats's my logic...........doubtless many on this site will disagree. Have a good weekend.

[chopsy] 07/8/2009 17:54

Nice to see a bit of a breakout from the range.

[bountyhunter] 07/8/2009 17:50

interesting to see that some sales went through at 845 today

[salpara111] 07/8/2009 17:17

My goodness! It is like a bunch of old ladies bickering!
Seriously, I assume that we are all here to make money so you only have to ask yourself one simple question.

What is the probability that I will be able to sell my Venture shares for more than 845p in.....lets say the next 6 months?

Once you have answered that question to your own personal satisfaction then make a decision to sell to CNA or not!

The "rights and wrongs" of who said what to whom is best left to the "Katie/Peter" divorce.

I do not hold a position but have been watching this as a learning experience. Given that the share price is now just a couple of pence short of the offer price it would strongly suggest (if past t/o situations are any indication) that the bid will succeed, however what I find interesting is the fact that I am not sure if CNA will get the 75% they need to delist etc. This is the reason that I am interested in this situation as I want to see what happens if they get between 50% and 75%.
I have absolutely no interest in any theoretical value ascribed to VPC, my objective is simply to make money by either taking a long or short position on the stock.
It appears that quite a number of people have taken an emotional stance here and once again I would suggest that when you let emotions enter into a financial transaction there is generally one outcome........you get screwed.... but not in a good way!
Good luck!

[phillis] 06/8/2009 17:41

With what do you disagree
Let's debate

How does the post you have made have any relevance to the offer for VPC ?

[phillis] 06/8/2009 16:58

We wouln't have to be adversaries if only you would agree with me...

:-)

[hysteron] 06/8/2009 16:46

Phillis, I doubt we will ever be bosom buddies but I am pleased we can be polite adversaries.

[hysteron] 06/8/2009 16:42

Churchill2 if the Venture board do agree a deal with CNA then I too will accept it, I have no problem with that.

[phillis] 06/8/2009 16:31

e.g re unconditional as to acceptances