Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Venture Life LSE:VLG London Ordinary Share GB00BFPM8908 ORD 0.3P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 50.00p 48.00p 52.00p - - - 0 06:40:20
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Health Care Equipment & Services 14.3 -1.1 -3.8 - 18.42

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DateSubject
18/1/2018
08:20
Venture Life Daily Update: Venture Life is listed in the Health Care Equipment & Services sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker VLG. The last closing price for Venture Life was 50p.
Venture Life has a 4 week average price of 43p and a 12 week average price of 42.50p.
The 1 year high share price is 87.50p while the 1 year low share price is currently 42.50p.
There are currently 36,837,106 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 12,411 shares. The market capitalisation of Venture Life is £18,418,553.
05/1/2018
20:20
redartbmud: tlatsatt Shorting is a long way from the Buffet buy and hold forever principles that have been the foundation stone of our previous incarnation. I agree about the sums. £1.5k - £2.5k is a reasonable sum to punt, having done the hard yards to justify the investment. APAD's policy of multiple additions has to be under very strong consideration, taking advantage of upward momentum of the share price. BTFD on no news maybe. henryatkin, who posts regularly elsewhere has a formula whereby it is possible to remove the initial stake for a good profit, at some point, after the third purchase. Maybe that is a sort of answer. I will have to work out a model at some point. Certainly, it is very galling to see a share rise 50/60%, only to see it collapse back to the start point in very short order. It takes discipline to keep adding at ever higher share prices with no strategy for an exit and recovery of capital. APAD had to make a number of sales of Rws before he was able to sell out his entire holding. Apologies if I have rambled too much. red
02/1/2018
20:29
attrader: Dibbs TAP great performer this year and still modestly valued. Suffering as it always has from a foreign AIM stock penalty but they haven’t put a foot wrong. With the Tremor acquisition due to boost earnings along with expansion into new geographical territories I can’t see any reason not to pick TAP again. Mobile advertising is forecast to grow rapidly for several years yet and if the market does apply a higher multiple then a share price far higher is quite possible. WJG another 2017 pick, the developer and constructor of student accommodation also now moving into the build to rent market. Still on a modest PE and with excellent forward earnings visibility which gives investors comfort and for my mind should give decent scope for earnings upgrades. A bit boring again but if the market turns it will hopefully hold up pretty well. MGP new to the market this year and little loved thus far. Funnily, detractors seem to forget that the shares are still 50% up from the float price. Since opening at a healthy premium the shares have traded side ways with a few large shareholders moving on and recently Old Mutual emerging with a large holding that they continue to add to, now above 18%. MGP are leaders in teleradiology with their Nighthawk service offering hospitals very rapid reads of scans that they can’t hope to match in house. Radiologists unsurprisingly seem to be preferring to work from home, picking their hours rather than work in a pretty grim NHS hospital. As more leave the NHS’s ability to offer a decent service themselves will reduce so it seems that in time MGP will pick up more and more trusts. The shares aren’t cheap but quality rarely is. FFX A relatively new holding for me. FFX looks to be gathering momentum with a significant acquisition completed this summer. Transaction volumes are set to rise rapidly and at the same time FFX’s fees are set to increase. House broker forecasts suggest a period of very rapid growth is ahead. IDP A volatile share price and high Muppet concentration on the BB don’t do this one many favours but this company’s share price could do very well if the management can execute competently. Skinny Tan has performed very well and looks set to continue to grow, especially if they can make inroads into the US market where they have made what looks a good appointment. Roots, their hair care products are looking promising with good sales building through Superdrug. Plenty of execution challenges/ risks but then again that applies to most companies. Cragside SQZ Oil sector is a good place to be with rising fossil fuel prices, and this company has valuable oil/gas producing assets in the North Sea and £30m cash. The deal with BP should enhance production seven fold with little cash outlay. Too good to be true? We will find out in 2018 GMD I am expecting this company to rise further from the ashes. With plenty of cash, and 2 large shareholders, the available shares are limited. A decent trading update should be made in the next couple of weeks due to new consoles, and games released. I like the recent appointment of James Shinehouse as director, and am expecting prolonged growth particularly from its Events, Esports & Digital businesses. KRS This is definitely not a Value Growth share. More of a speculation on the ability of Dave Reeves to deliver shareholder returns from Australian gold, and Manganese in Togo. Boom or bust with this one but it may be flat in 2018 as it could take at least 2 or 3 years to come to fruition. WSG A major project in the Middle East has recently catapulted the price of this services and security company which has been loss making for over 5 years. Am expecting more from this transformational deal. D4T4 Data solutions is the business, with increasing turnover and more importantly profits. Modest P/E ratio about half of its peers. Recently announced "Contract wins in key vertical sectors". Four different directors buying decent amounts in November 2017. Fozzie SQZ Ahem, please forgive me one oiler! I hold 7 at the moment and have very high expectations of the sector in 2018 as the rising oil price and cost savings made in the lean years propel earnings. £300m deal with BP will complete in the middle of next year and production is expected to rise 7 fold to 21000bopd. No debt. No debt! Latest IC says SQZ has 'the potential for rapid, near-term equity growth. Buy.' RFX I have held for over a year but was given an unexpected opportunity to buy recently when following excellent results a seller appeared amid profit taking generally. Stunning results at the end of November almost achieving forecast FY in the first half. Foreign currency broking and trad pawnbroking are its business. Well diversified and cash generative, earnings are growing strongly, oh and they have net cash of £13.4m which is nice ;o) ESG is a pioneering digital financial transactions technology company. A recent joint partnership with Mastercard has seen its brand Homesend incorporated into Mastercard itself with a target market of $22 trillion. Homesend is a scaleable low cost model. They have signed up 15 banks this year, 5 in the last 2 months. Cash raise recently 'The Board of eServGlobal believes that the proceeds will allow HomeSend to better focus on the far larger than expected growth opportunities in the cross-border banking market' i like that bit! AEO is a live events specialist. The two founders left the board recently so a new team is in place, 'The board is very supportive of the new management team and believes that the Company is well positioned and has the resources and skills to build a much stronger business'. Results on Nov 10 were reassuring with a healthy balance sheet, at 30p £2.7M mcap but with £1.9M in cash. Divi cut back 'in anticipation of future development initiatives to build shareholder value' SPSY Spectra Systems manufactures products for industries that include brand authentication, document and mail processing, drug discovery, textile services and digital optical media. I began buying several years ago at sub 20p and have recently bought a lot more in the 80p area. Share price is lower now than in October when company gave an 'ahead' statement. Should be a trading update in early Jan 18. There has been a seller from 108 down to current 80p area. Katie Potts Herald IT took a decent slug at 100p earlier in the year. If last divi payment was maintained we would have a yield of 10% here, wishful thinking perhaps. DiscoDave4 AHT Ashtead Group is a FTSE 100 plant hire company which operates in the UK as A Plant and in the USA as Sunbelt. It is the second largest plant hire company in the US and generates 86% of its income from North America. It currently has 7% of the US market and is targeting 15% by 2021. Growth will be via acquisitions and organic. Its total earnings have already grown five-fold in the last 5 years and IMO they are expert at timing the cyclical nature of the sector. It is a highly leveraged business so beware. The BOD are very knowledgeable and experienced. Just announced a £500m share buyback programme. Forecast PE 16 and PEG 0.9. BUR Burford Capital is an AIM listed finance and investment management firm which is primarily focussed on litigation finance. This is (IMO) a unique business which operates in a niche area of expertise and as a result has significant barriers to entry. The CEO (Bogart) knows the business and the sector inside out. Generally analysts fail to be able to value the business and consistently under estimate earnings. Forecast Yr End PE 14.9 and PEG 0.2, 2018 analysts forecast reduced growth with a PE of 21 and PEG -0.8 (how far out will they be!). ENQ Enquest is a FTSE Small Cap Oil and Gas development and production company. Their business model is simply to acquire assets that the majors do not want anymore and turn them into high yield assets. They have just commissioned a $2.9 billion FPSO for the Kraken oil field of which they have a 70% stake and which will double their total oil production in 2018.They have high net debt but they will be generating sufficient free cash flow to start to pay down their debt during next year. The CEO and family hold about 18% of the shares. Forecast PE 4, PEG 0.02 (?). GAW Games Workshop is in the style of its previous CEO/Chairman, a FTSE Small Cap that continues to make the best fantasy miniatures in the world, distributes them and sells them at a very nice profit to adults that live only to play with toys!. Three quarters of its sales are overseas so its benefiting from a weak pound. A new product line will be rolling out in 2018 which will extend its successful 40k game across more gaming categories particularly in the US. Forecast PE 15 and PEG 0.2. TAP Taptica is an AIM listed mobile advertising technology company which is now also expanding into video. Most of its turnover is in the US and continued strong growth is anticipated with margins constantly improving over time. It is rated below fair value IMO but this may also be as a consequence of being an Israeli company. Forecast PE 12, PEG 0.6. Che7win TXP oiler with lots of potential - very undervalued compared to TrInidad peers, will drill 10 wells first half 2018, I view lowish risk. TRIN another Trinidad oiler with ambitions to grow fast from 3000 bopd - cash flow positive. IDP in beauty and cosmetics - Skinny Tan range established and new ROOTS hair growth range - selling well. More product launches expected in a busy H1 2018. Low PEG valuation. IMM finishing Lupus drug trial around now - multibagger potential if successful in short term. FDA fast track designation. SGP Supergroup - online growth as fast as BOO for a fraction of the price. RP19 VLE A conservatively ran company which buys struggling companies, turns them around and sells them on (think Melrose). Share price largely discounts realistic valuations for VLE's investments. Of the current portfolio, Impetus Automotive would seem to offer the most promise. RFX Northern company with 4 key business segments - foreign currency exchange, pawnbroking loans, buying and selling precious metals and retailing second hand and new jewellery. 120 stores with targeted expansion plans and a small but growing online presence. ASH Government policy has meant that there have been historic barriers to the company developing its considerable pipeline in the development of extra care and supported living provision. Recent joint venture with Morgan Sindall should unlock the delivery of this pipeline. ASH are also developing a presence in the modular building sector (houses, education facilities, site offices, health care etc) which I view as a growth area (Morgan Sindall also operate in this space). DRV Company providing engineering and construction consultancy services (planning, project management, dispute resolution etc). Acquired badly and diversified too much. However, would now seem to be a better focussed and more streamlined business. There has been a lot of M&A activity in this sector over the past year or so. FFX Payments service provider to retail and corporate clients. Excellent TrustPilot reviews. High operational gearing and recent move into SME banking sector. MasterCard also recently given full membership status to FFX. Relatively straight talking narrative from the CEO is also welcomed. Dacian XLM at the core, they trawl the internet for gamblers and pass them on to casino operators who in turn reward xlm with a cut from the profits. XPD they're trucking uk frock to eastern Europe and back. A buy and build in a fragmented sector. And they're not bloody truckers, they call themselves freight forwarders ( fancy words for truckers, really :-). FLTA they're cleaning deep frying oil, in restaurants. Yikes, dirty work. And I can't believe that people do actually pay for that. NTQ tiny engineer supplying drilling equipment to US shale. Enterprise value (market cap minus cash) circa £3 mil. PCIP not quite sure what they're up to, something to do with protecting customers' details when making a payment over the phone. Wskill ISAT leader in maritime sat coms now doing same in airplanes ,equipment best in class fallen back due to investment required to launch additional sats 12 months from now it will have completed most of the expenditures and be receiving income from investment. IGG Also best provider of spread betting and now branching into stockbroking ,with Barclays fiasco will soon pick up steam excellent divi. FLX cyber protection with own software just won a new contract after spending a week in DD having its software hacked it won the contract against stiff competition. HUM gold miner just had its first gold pour full production 130k Oz per year. IDP cosmetics brand just building a portfolio of products. Piedro TSTL Makes hospital disinfectants based on chlorine dioxide. Rest of world sales now approaching 50% of total. Takeover red herring. SRT Involved in marine domain awareness technology. Produce their own equipment and sell complete systems. Very jam tomorrow company waiting for big contracts to arrive so may not make it into the 2019 pick OCN 75% Brazilian maritime and 25% Investment portfolio. Originally 50:50 the Brazilian part showing all the growth having 2 container terminals and 70 odd tugboats CAM Principal business is tea followed by nuts and avocados. Seems to have passed through a phase of diworsification getting involved in engineering and banking which are gradually being sold off. MGNS construction company with a difference. Passed through a period of bad contracts but now more careful preferring many small contracts rather than going for the big one. Iomax99 MGP leader in its field, forecast CARG of 20% for next 3/4 years, with gross margins not far short of 50%. FUTR Physical/digital specialist publishing, significantly transformed over last couple of years to focus on maximising overall online proposition. BUR Market leader in litigation finance, strong track record, industry still at an early stage. HL. Leading fintech in UK online platform space, ambitious plans for further expansion, yet barely scratching the surface of target UK savings market. CVSG Leading veterinary consolidator, still only have c 14% of UK market (strong acquisition pipeline), strong cross selling of services/continuing to add new/complementary services/ expanding overseas, recent correction overdone. Haywards26 REDS Software Solutions and Smart Building systems integrators, providing design, implementation of networks, managed services. Contract wins in 2017 with big name clients, which has confirmed the business traction being gained. BHRD a digital marketing group including marketing, technology and e-commerce businesses. Headed by experienced marketing Chairman (Peter Scott ). Profitable with strong growth potential. Business appears to be gaining traction cross selling between various group entities with new large name client wins of late. Buy and build strategy. BLVN board removed in 2017 and replaced by the largest shareholder (COC), who have removed the executive directors and turned the company into a holding entity, with two oil projects. Both pre commercialisation, but ETINDE (Cameroon) potentially a very significant discovery. Partnered with New Age/Lukoil further drilling to occur in 2018 to sure up the resource. I expect COC to at this point then to sell the remaining ETINDE asset and return cash to shareholders. Market cap underpinned by Cash on balance sheet. SRC a relatively new entity. Operates new and existing construction material assets in places where opportunity is greatest. Main asset is a quarry owned in Guernsey and has the market share supplying materials from the quarry. In addition there has been two recent concrete producers acquired in 2017. Experienced board. Buy and build strategy. Profitable and expect further significant growth . Market cap underpinned by Quarry asset. RHL is an engineering business offering design, manufacture, installation, maintenance and decommissioning services, specializing in the nuclear sector. They have had a tough few years due to an Energy to Waste construction contract nightmare. Following this the business has evolved its offering from the more complex and risky construction aspect to nuclear related manufacturing and decommissioning services. Valhamos DOTD Dotmailer product has a strong position with ecommerce platforms such as Magento. Growing international presence in US and Far East and recent acquisition enables move to omni-channel communication and customer engagement including live chat and social media. NEXS Recent IPO (July 2017), infrastructure services to housebuilding and commercial sectors, looks set to benefit from government commitment to build 300k houses p.a. Company has 2 division; Tamdown infrastructure and civil engineering services (customers 9 of top 10 largest UK housebuilders) and TriConnex designs, installs, connects utility networks (started in 2011 has shown profit CAGR of 70% since 2013) D4T4 Growth driver is Customer experience (CX) /Customer data platform software through the Celebrus offering along with necessity to meet GPRD requirements next year. Contracts delays impacted recent interims (and share price accordingly) but recent director purchases support company claims to be still on course to meet full year targets. CAKE Patisserie is almost metronomic in its growth and profit performance with increase in ROIC over the years. 199 outlets and targeting 20 new stores this current year each one expected to be profitable from day one with average payback under 2 years. SGP Recent launch of Superdry 5.0 Global Digital Brand strategy marks the next chapter in the company’s development with growth in ecommerce and continued roll-out and investment in US and China. Thelongandtheshortandthetall Googl (class A) revenue and profit growing growing at approximately 25% per year. Basically no debt. Huge cash reserves - i expect a tax ease on the repatriation of foreign held currency plus the US tax cut will benefit profits. There are too many strings to googles bow to list here. Heres just a couple: Waymo is the most advanced in the driverless car market, youtube, 90% of mobiles run on android etc. Also there is the potential for spin offs. Facebook basically no debt. Vertual monopoly - Throwing off cash. Regular acquisitions. Super targetted advertising that advertisers will pay a lot for. Slowing user growth but they are now in the monitisation stage. Will benefit from us tax cut and possible repatriation of foreign reserves. Idp small cosmetics and life science business. Very low debt. Sp way under recent placing. Growing list of brands. All products manufactured by third paries - no need for expensive plant or property. Products are advertised via social media. They are very inventive with their product designs. Usually combining two or three products in one. Ie fake tan and cellulite reducing effects, skin whitening cream with spf50 Caution there is a snake oil feeling that is growing in me. SOM small company manufacturing industrial concrete levelling machines. Basically no debt and growing cash reserves. World leader in this very niche part of the construction industry. I can see Somero being bought by one of the big boys one day. Should also benefit from us tax cut. Does require continued world commercial construction projects. Cake slow but steady growing cafe/bakery. Clear plan for more store roll outs - funded internally. Basically no debt and growing cash reserves. No need for huge capital outlays. Multibagger ARC Been in ARC for several years ago now. Stickiness of blue chip customers (only 2 customer losses over 10 years apparently), strong cash generation rate, no debt, hold about £2.6m cash, and now dividend paying (progressive policy indicated). New products in trials at 5 Tier 1 banks and participant in Symphony and OpenMAMA forums which could widen the addressable market. Very conservative, low key management and accounting style - the typical boring but solid company with high barriers to entry. Management seem quietly confident. IDEA Big UK player in Governance, Risk and Compliance (GRC) software space with several high profile customers across health, banking, rail, air transportation etc. About 160 NHS Trusts and all the Scottish NHS Trusts use them. Also 8 out of top 10 accounting groups use them.Growing upwards of 20%+ year on year. Solid track record of integrating acquisitions, paying down manageable debt and dividend paying. IQE Strong IP portfolio, proven tech capability and strong backing from Welsh government, massive expansion of manufacturing capacity in train and oversubscribed £100m recent placing. Technology has high barriers to entry and long lead times for competitors to try and catch up. I expect it to be acquired for the tech/IP in due course.I missed the ARM story, but won't miss this one. High PE stock - for cutting edge tech PE is the wrong metric, though not sure which metric ever makes sense. LTG Very strong track record of Andrew Brode (in particular) and Jonathan Satchell who own about 30-40% of the company. Strong suite of customisable products, complementary strategic acquisitions and excellent geographic spread. High US income through Rustici acquisition (may benefit from Trump's tax reforms). Online/elearning market can only get bigger. Successful ongoing delivery of a massive UK civil service contract (in conjunction with KPMG) could be a reference customer for further Whitehall contracts given Brexit. Serviceable debt and dividend paying. Intention to develop into a 100 million business (having upped target from a 50 million business). CYAN Looks like at the threshold of a turnaround in fortunes with smart metering space (electricity, gas, water and now IoT) developing at a rapid pace across the world. About $100m purchase orders signed over the last year or so across a number of countries - Sweden,UK, Iran, Bangladesh, India. Works with local/in country partners who do the implementation and CYAN provides the technology/communication solutions and is partnering a number of meter manufacturers, as the tech is meter agnostic. Excellent suite of communication technologies which are able to address different economic market segments, local terrain and built up area issues and at differing points of the technology maturity cycle. Expects to get at least £25m from UK "not spot coverage" in UK smart meter rollout. Moving from a hardware to a recurrent software, multi year, per meter revenue model (not very different from ARM model broadly speaking). John Cronin, Chairman has a good track record of several successful exits/sell ons (about £650m according to company website). Directors including JC took one year salaries in equity...and have bought the dips/propped up the share price. redartbmud Arc Maiden dividend announced, which indicates that the business is maturing as a strong business generating good cash returns. Plenty of scope for it’s products in the market. Vanl Undemanding rating and an active shareholder who is the former holder. He will keep the management honest and certainly on their toes to outperform. Outside chance of a takeover. Ltg Expect more activity. The statement below says it all. When the AIM-listed firm entered the market in 2013 it sought to achieve run-rate revenues of £50m and EBITDA margins of 20% by the end of 2018, but Learning Technologies' 2017 interim results revealed that the company had hit targets twelve months ahead of schedule. However, as part of Tuesday's event, the e-learning group outlined a plan focused on doubling run-rate revenues to £100m with an EBITDA in excess of £25m by the end of 2020. Learning Technologies said it planned to achieve the new objectives through a combination of strong organic growth paired with strategic acquisitions that complemented its current business model. Rpc operating in a fragmented market, ripe for further consolidation. The tintins marked it down on the number of acquisitions in the year. I think that they are wrong, and expect more activity and further organic and acquisition based growth in 2018. Cost savings along the line. Rws – Unfortunately keeps issuing paper, but continuing to build a niche business in a growing market. The purchase of Moravia is transformational. Mattjos AAZ Low cost of production & AISC, valued at 25% of the CAPEX to date on the Gedabek plant & equipment. Sat on a huge, mainly unexplored, acreage although previous Russian data (as given in the IPO docs) gives a strong indication what is really present. New Director of Geology (Stephen Westhead ex. Polyus) is really starting to make his mark and has already found the previously unknown Ugur deposit right on their doorstep. The CEO has leant his own cash to the company on two occasions rather than dilute the precious equity - a rare event for an AIM miner. NED Prof. John Monhemius is one of the worlds leading authorities on pm processing techniques & has been instrumental in their SART plant and then how to process the complex ore using combination of Agitation then Flotation or, Flotation then Agitation. They have a surplus of both oxide and sulphide ore now stacked at Gedabek in case of any harsh winter weather this year. The underground exploration activities at Gedabek this winter and the fan drilling scheduled for early 2018 are likely to prove the catalysts for a big increase in JORC resources. Meanwhile, the healthy cashflow keeps reducing the debt (on plan). News over the next 3 months needs to be watched very closely. Against all this, the state mining entity AZERGOLD has a gold mine close by but lacks the technical skills to develop it effectively .. A bid for the entirety of AAZ is a possibility and at even 3x current price is dirt cheap STAR It has some persuasive tracking technology and I believe will reach a point in 2018 where recurring revenues cover their costs. The business model looks very appealing & so too the potential for rapid scale-up. STCM It is simply far too cheap and looks a perfect takeover target in the acquisitive global cement market. A unique dry-line operation in Kaz. SYM It is a long term serial underperformer but, now has a strong major investor (Somerston) with a seat on the board and they are turning this company from a lifestyle operation into a solid business. Looks likely to pay a maiden divi next year. Strong marketing/branding and big distribution pipeline in place to push new products. Strong Bed'n'Isa activity by Directors this year. WTI It is probably the riskiest one but, Orion seem strongly persuaded of the opportunity and the recent acquisition of Katumba from a reluctant but forced seller (Intrepid Mines) looks transformational. Highly leveraged to copper price so a mining play on EV adoption. Gsbmba99 Arcontech (ARC) for reasons Janeann mentioned. Shares are good value. They get paid in advance. Lots of cash on the balance sheet. Have already stated they have enough cash so, in absence of any M&A, could show interesting dividend growth. New product currently in trials. Mortgage Advice Bureau (MAB1) 2H17 gross mortgage lending has been up high single digits YoY and UKFinance/Council of Mortgage Lenders recently upgraded 2017 and 2018 forecasts (albeit modestly). New technology being introduced to reduce paperwork which should hopefully benefit adviser productivity. Opening up of product switch market (new mortgage with same lender) means market opportunity £90bn (or +30%) larger than 18 months ago. New direct to consumer advertising commences in 2018. Despite recent senior hires and advertising, no change to forecasts whereas most companies would have reduced as a result of "investing" for growth. Makes me think things are going a bit better than previously planned. Liontrust (LIO) They bought the sustainable investments business from Alliance Trust in April. They hired a new head of distribution about a year ago. They've hired a fixed income manager and strategist who, judging by the Kames funds on Trustnet that changed manager the day before LIO announced their arrival, used to co-manage Kames Strategic Global Bond ($638 AuM according to Trustnet), Kames Strategic Bond (£320m), Kames High Yield Bond (£908m) and Kames Sterling Corporate Bond (£604m). If 10% of his prior clients follow him, could lead to nice amount of net new money. Also, Reade Griffith (Polygon) owns 10%. Jarvis Securities (JIM) I am hoping for EPS growth attractively into double digits for duration of interest rate raising cycle. See my previous comments on thread. Premier Asset Management (PAM) It's a retail focused asset manager that distributes almost exclusively through IFAs. They have a bit of a niche in the "income" category and within that in multi-asset funds. From the admission document (pdf page 17): "The IA has identified multi-asset and income funds as long term beneficiaries of changes in the UK pensions and retirement market and AUM invested in the multi-asset market in the UK has grown by a CAGR of 20.2 per cent. over the past 10 years." For reference, 1.202^10-1=529%. Every quarter since fiscal Q313 has seen positive net new money. The distribution platform is powerful with >£500m of gross sales in each of last four quarters. Unfortunately, net sales over that period "only" £746m. The fact that a surprisingly large proportion of their customers are in pre-RDR funds means that revenue and costs are distorted. Net management fee (after payment of trail commission): £27.6m (FY15), £33.3m (FY16), £40.9m (FY17). Costs (excl. trail commission): £20m (FY15), £22.8m (FY16), £26.6m (FY17). Op margin (% net revenue excl trail commission): 27.5% (FY15), 31.5% (FY16), 35% (FY17). That's 750bps of additional margin created through net revenue rising faster than net costs. Because it's retail oriented, I can track progress through the fund fact sheets (which represent 94% of corporate AuM). AuM increased at 13/23 funds in Jun, 19/24 in Jul, 17/23 in Aug, 16/23 in Sep, 22/23 in Oct and 16/23 in Nov despite most of the funds paying dividends very regularly (sometimes monthly). AuM movement: -£8.4m (Jun), £120.1m (Jul), £75.6m (Aug), £68.5m (Sep), £181.3m (Oct) and £48.5m (Nov). The multi-asset series of funds were £2.884bn as at May and were £3.225bn as at Nov. Valuation not nearly as cheap as it was so return may be down to EPS growth. Janeann ACSO Global ticketing specialist providing technology to improve customer experience primarily in leisure attractions theme parks etc. Leader in its field. Started out to avoid queueing at theme parks and developed since. Large global customer base. Growing by both expansion and acquisition, and growth expected to continue. ARC Is a small niche player and provides solutions to managing real time market data - both software and consultancy. Number of very high profile clients with recurring revenue streams. Recently started paying dividends. LTG is a dividend paying company providing digital learning solutions and interactive media programmes to a broad range of clients including government. Aiming to grow by both broadening its range of products and clients across a broader geographic range as well as via acquisition. PRSM Software company specialising and leading the field in development of robotic process automation particularly of more routing back office tasks enabling the freeing up staff to do more productive tasks. Globally active in events and with a diverse range of high profile partners prsm is at the forefront of the developing technology. ZTF Specialist manufacturer of plastic foam for a very broad and diverse range of industries including sports, automotive & construction. Many specialist uses and complex production process. Recent deal with Nike. Expanded production base in China now coming onstream and plans to expand in UK also. Dividend payer. Attrader Burford Capital They provide finance for litigations which is a market in flux. Historically, they have been generating 25% IRR on their investments. Litigation business is uncorrelated with rest of economy which should reduce risk in portfolio. Ample room to compound capital as market is still growing. Credit: Hydrus IG Index UK Based spread betting operator with exceptional customer service. They were hit by potential new regulations however they are diversifying into traditional brokerage businesses (SIPP, ISAs). That should improve stickiness of revenues and reduce necessity to constantly recruit new clients. High returns on capital, good management. Like the CEO. Credit: APAD Amadeus Spanish market leader in processing travel transactions. More people traveling due to cheap flights, growing middle class and wealth generation in Asia. Sticky revenues with potential to grow at 6% in line with market growth. Credit: Terry Smith) AppleGreen Irish forecourt retailer acquiring petrol stations from oil majors exiting the business. They refurbish forecourts, rebrand them, add food & cloth retailing. Forecourt retailing is high margin business as customers would pay more for buying snacks in the middle of motorway. Management owns a decent stake. Credit: Wexboy) MSAB-B Swedish mobile forensics software provider competing in a niche market with only few other companies. Their competitive edge is number of devices supported by their software. Law enforcement agencies need a reliable platform to quickly extract data from suspect device and decipher messages. 50+% recurring revenues. Mobile forensics market is growing at a decent rate. Lauders HOC Gold and silver miner with South American operations. FTSE 250 and pays a dividend. Reducing debt and as precious metal prices increase so do their profits. If 2018 is financially rocky as some say it will be then HOC should do well. My largest holding by a mile. SDX "Roulette wheel" to some but my 2nd largest holding and I think they will do well in 2018. Egyptian and Moroccan operations of mainly gas. Current drilling has been on a roll & coming up roses. The share-price is under-performing and hopefully will be rerated in 2018. MSLH Been a good year for this company that offers natural stone and concrete hard landscaping products, supplying the construction, home improvement and landscape markets. They are also into street furniture that protects public from some of the terror events we have witnessed over recent years. I believe they will continue to do well and acquire select businesses to expand their offerings. Current offer: 437.30p ITV Think everyone knows about this broadcaster. Been weak lately but the recent Disney/Time Warner news among other things has shifted momentum a bit and a new CEO next year may all mean a better year for the company. Pays dividends and special dividends. Always a chance of a bid/merger with them too. Been mentioned countless times in the past and no doubt will continue. Current offer: 166p BVXP No need to really comment on them here. Everyone pretty much knows the deal and why they are a great BTFD opportunity if the chance ever comes. Current offer: 2550p APAD FEVR a new international brand, creative management, minimal costs, pays a divi, needs to succeed in the US) BOO stunning CEO combination, huge barriers to entry, disruptive, buy direct from the brand not through an on-line shop, big spend but not difficult, no negatives ABC products gain value the more they are used, becoming the gorilla on the block but high costs developing their systems - need to prove success in developing software and distribution centres) BVXP niche technology, hard to compete with, very low costs, losing an income stream, needs to succeed with Siemens collaboration TSTL novel, low cost technology in an important area, international expansion is important, will probably be sold on in a year or two if it continues to be successful
01/1/2018
13:18
thelongandtheshortandthetall: I am one of those that holds three shares currently. Sold about 15% of my idps the other day to free up some cash to buy into one of my other two allowed picks. As funds become available I will hold all five. I dont expect fireworks from my selection but I feel I wont need to watch the share price minute by minute. Which is the essence of the exercise I think. Discodave. I see from the BB you were a previouse holder of SFE. Congrats on your sell price by the way. You obviously understoo that share price and company well. The question for me is when to buy. The recent director sell at 160p I dont beliv e will be the last of the bad news there. Have you considered buying back in an if so are there any indicators that might trigger that decision. To me its a matter of reading consumer confidence etc. There could be a great opportunity with SFE in the not to distant future - maybe a year or so. I recon the share price has a alot further to fall yet though Imo. But a rebound could be strong once they they start selling properly again esp with all the back ground work thats been done (paid for already) in the firms infrastructure. Cheers
01/1/2018
09:48
apad: BOO gross margin fall since the 2016 finals: 57.8% 54.6% 53.3% This is used to explain the continued depression of the BOO share price since the general drop in highly priced shares. The argument is oft-repeated "What I tell you three times it is true". My argument is that this is a deliberate part of the battle for customers (rather than the result of some sort of fundamental change in the business environment), and so it is a sensible business tactic. We'll soon see whether I am correct or not! Looking forward to seeing your portrayal of the Comparison entries, attrader. apad Update of entry descriptions: Multibagger ARC Been in for several years ago now. Stickiness of blue chip customers (only 2 customer losses over 10 years apparently), strong cash generation rate, no debt, hold about £2.6m cash, and now dividend paying (progressive policy indicated). New products in trials at 5 Tier 1 banks and participant in Symphony and OpenMAMA forums which could widen the addressable market. Very conservative, low key management and accounting style - the typical boring but solid company with high barriers to entry. Management seem quietly confident. IDEA Big UK player in Governance, Risk and Compliance (GRC) software space with several high profile customers across health, banking, rail, air transportation etc. About 160 NHS Trusts and all the Scottish NHS Trusts use them. Also 8 out of top 10 accounting groups use them.Growing upwards of 20%+ year on year. Solid track record of integrating acquisitions, paying down manageable debt and dividend paying. IQE Strong IP portfolio, proven tech capability and strong backing from Welsh government, massive expansion of manufacturing capacity in train and oversubscribed £100m recent placing. Technology has high barriers to entry and long lead times for competitors to try and catch up. I expect it to be acquired for the tech/IP in due course.I missed the ARM story, but won't miss this one. High PE stock - for cutting edge tech PE is the wrong metric, though not sure which metric ever makes sense. LTG Very strong track record of Andrew Brode (in particular) and Jonathan Satchell who own about 30-40% of the company. Strong suite of customisable products, complementary strategic acquisitions and excellent geographic spread. High US income through Rustici acquisition (may benefit from Trump's tax reforms). Online/elearning market can only get bigger. Successful ongoing delivery of a massive UK civil service contract (in conjunction with KPMG) could be a reference customer for further Whitehall contracts given Brexit. Serviceable debt and dividend paying. Intention to develop into a 100 million business (having upped target from a 50 million business). CYAN Looks like at the threshold of a turnaround in fortunes with smart metering space (electricity, gas, water and now IoT) developing at a rapid pace across the world. About $100m purchase orders signed over the last year or so across a number of countries - Sweden,UK, Iran, Bangladesh, India. Works with local/in country partners who do the implementation and CYAN provides the technology/communication solutions and is partnering a number of meter manufacturers, as the tech is meter agnostic. Excellent suite of communication technologies which are able to address different economic market segments, local terrain and built up area issues and at differing points of the technology maturity cycle. Expects to get at least £25m from UK "not spot coverage" in UK smart meter rollout. Moving from a hardware to a recurrent software, multi year, per meter revenue model (not very different from ARM model broadly speaking). John Cronin, Chairman has a good track record of several successful exits/sell ons (about £650m according to company website). Directors including JC took one year salaries in equity...and have bought the dips/propped up the share price. redartbmud Arc Maiden dividend announced, which indicates that the business is maturing as a strong business generating good cash returns. Plenty of scope for it’s products in the market. Vanl Undemanding rating and an active shareholder who is the former holder. He will keep the management honest and certainly on their toes to outperform. Outside chance of a takeover. Ltg Expect more activity. The statement below says it all. When the AIM-listed firm entered the market in 2013 it sought to achieve run-rate revenues of £50m and EBITDA margins of 20% by the end of 2018, but Learning Technologies' 2017 interim results revealed that the company had hit targets twelve months ahead of schedule. However, as part of Tuesday's event, the e-learning group outlined a plan focused on doubling run-rate revenues to £100m with an EBITDA in excess of £25m by the end of 2020. Learning Technologies said it planned to achieve the new objectives through a combination of strong organic growth paired with strategic acquisitions that complemented its current business model. Rpc operating in a fragmented market, ripe for further consolidation. The tintins marked it down on the number of acquisitions in the year. I think that they are wrong, and expect more activity and further organic and acquisition based growth in 2018. Cost savings along the line. Rws – Unfortunately keeps issuing paper, but continuing to build a niche business in a growing market. The purchase of Moravia is transformational. Mattjos AAZ Low cost of production & AISC, valued at 25% of the CAPEX to date on the Gedabek plant & equipment. Sat on a huge, mainly unexplored, acreage although previous Russian data (as given in the IPO docs) gives a strong indication what is really present. New Director of Geology (Stephen Westhead ex. Polyus) is really starting to make his mark and has already found the previously unknown Ugur deposit right on their doorstep. The CEO has leant his own cash to the company on two occasions rather than dilute the precious equity - a rare event for an AIM miner. NED Prof. John Monhemius is one of the worlds leading authorities on pm processing techniques & has been instrumental in their SART plant and then how to process the complex ore using combination of Agitation then Flotation or, Flotation then Agitation. They have a surplus of both oxide and sulphide ore now stacked at Gedabek in case of any harsh winter weather this year. The underground exploration activities at Gedabek this winter and the fan drilling scheduled for early 2018 are likely to prove the catalysts for a big increase in JORC resources. Meanwhile, the healthy cashflow keeps reducing the debt (on plan). News over the next 3 months needs to be watched very closely. Against all this, the state mining entity AZERGOLD has a gold mine close by but lacks the technical skills to develop it effectively .. A bid for the entirety of AAZ is a possibility and at even 3x current price is dirt cheap STAR It has some persuasive tracking technology and I believe will reach a point in 2018 where recurring revenues cover their costs. The business model looks very appealing & so too the potential for rapid scale-up. STCM It is simply far too cheap and looks a perfect takeover target in the acquisitive global cement market. A unique dry-line operation in Kaz. SYM It is a long term serial underperformer but, now has a strong major investor (Somerston) with a seat on the board and they are turning this company from a lifestyle operation into a solid business. Looks likely to pay a maiden divi next year. Strong marketing/branding and big distribution pipeline in place to push new products. Strong Bed'n'Isa activity by Directors this year. WTI It is probably the riskiest one but, Orion seem strongly persuaded of the opportunity and the recent acquisition of Katumba from a reluctant but forced seller (Intrepid Mines) looks transformational. Highly leveraged to copper price so a mining play on EV adoption. Gsbmba99 Arcontech (ARC) for reasons Janeann mentioned. Shares are good value. They get paid in advance. Lots of cash on the balance sheet. Have already stated they have enough cash so, in absence of any M&A, could show interesting dividend growth. New product currently in trials. Mortgage Advice Bureau (MAB1) 2H17 gross mortgage lending has been up high single digits YoY and UKFinance/Council of Mortgage Lenders recently upgraded 2017 and 2018 forecasts (albeit modestly). New technology being introduced to reduce paperwork which should hopefully benefit adviser productivity. Opening up of product switch market (new mortgage with same lender) means market opportunity £90bn (or +30%) larger than 18 months ago. New direct to consumer advertising commences in 2018. Despite recent senior hires and advertising, no change to forecasts whereas most companies would have reduced as a result of "investing" for growth. Makes me think things are going a bit better than previously planned. Liontrust (LIO) They bought the sustainable investments business from Alliance Trust in April. They hired a new head of distribution about a year ago. They've hired a fixed income manager and strategist who, judging by the Kames funds on Trustnet that changed manager the day before LIO announced their arrival, used to co-manage Kames Strategic Global Bond ($638 AuM according to Trustnet), Kames Strategic Bond (£320m), Kames High Yield Bond (£908m) and Kames Sterling Corporate Bond (£604m). If 10% of his prior clients follow him, could lead to nice amount of net new money. Also, Reade Griffith (Polygon) owns 10%. Jarvis Securities (JIM) I am hoping for EPS growth attractively into double digits for duration of interest rate raising cycle. See my previous comments on thread. Premier Asset Management (PAM) It's a retail focused asset manager that distributes almost exclusively through IFAs. They have a bit of a niche in the "income" category and within that in multi-asset funds. From the admission document (pdf page 17): "The IA has identified multi-asset and income funds as long term beneficiaries of changes in the UK pensions and retirement market and AUM invested in the multi-asset market in the UK has grown by a CAGR of 20.2 per cent. over the past 10 years." For reference, 1.202^10-1=529%. Every quarter since fiscal Q313 has seen positive net new money. The distribution platform is powerful with >£500m of gross sales in each of last four quarters. Unfortunately, net sales over that period "only" £746m. The fact that a surprisingly large proportion of their customers are in pre-RDR funds means that revenue and costs are distorted. Net management fee (after payment of trail commission): £27.6m (FY15), £33.3m (FY16), £40.9m (FY17). Costs (excl. trail commission): £20m (FY15), £22.8m (FY16), £26.6m (FY17). Op margin (% net revenue excl trail commission): 27.5% (FY15), 31.5% (FY16), 35% (FY17). That's 750bps of additional margin created through net revenue rising faster than net costs. Because it's retail oriented, I can track progress through the fund fact sheets (which represent 94% of corporate AuM). AuM increased at 13/23 funds in Jun, 19/24 in Jul, 17/23 in Aug, 16/23 in Sep, 22/23 in Oct and 16/23 in Nov despite most of the funds paying dividends very regularly (sometimes monthly). AuM movement: -£8.4m (Jun), £120.1m (Jul), £75.6m (Aug), £68.5m (Sep), £181.3m (Oct) and £48.5m (Nov). The multi-asset series of funds were £2.884bn as at May and were £3.225bn as at Nov. Valuation not nearly as cheap as it was so return may be down to EPS growth. Janeann ACSO Global ticketing specialist providing technology to improve customer experience primarily in leisure attractions theme parks etc. Leader in its field. Started out to avoid queueing at theme parks and developed since. Large global customer base. Growing by both expansion and acquisition, and growth expected to continue. ARC Is a small niche player and provides solutions to managing real time market data - both software and consultancy. Number of very high profile clients with recurring revenue streams. Recently started paying dividends. LTG is a dividend paying company providing digital learning solutions and interactive media programmes to a broad range of clients including government. Aiming to grow by both broadening its range of products and clients across a broader geographic range as well as via acquisition. PRSM Software company specialising and leading the field in development of robotic process automation particularly of more routing back office tasks enabling the freeing up staff to do more productive tasks. Globally active in events and with a diverse range of high profile partners prsm is at the forefront of the developing technology. ZTF Specialist manufacturer of plastic foam for a very broad and diverse range of industries including sports, automotive & construction. Many specialist uses and complex production process. Recent deal with Nike. Expanded production base in China now coming onstream and plans to expand in UK also. Dividend payer. Attrader Burford Capital They provide finance for litigations which is a market in flux. Historically, they have been generating 25% IRR on their investments. Litigation business is uncorrelated with rest of economy which should reduce risk in portfolio. Ample room to compound capital as market is still growing. Credit: Hydrus IG Index UK Based spread betting operator with exceptional customer service. They were hit by potential new regulations however they are diversifying into traditional brokerage businesses (SIPP, ISAs). That should improve stickiness of revenues and reduce necessity to constantly recruit new clients. High returns on capital, good management. Like the CEO. Credit: APAD Amadeus Spanish market leader in processing travel transactions. More people traveling due to cheap flights, growing middle class and wealth generation in Asia. Sticky revenues with potential to grow at 6% in line with market growth. Credit: Terry Smith) AppleGreen Irish forecourt retailer acquiring petrol stations from oil majors exiting the business. They refurbish forecourts, rebrand them, add food & cloth retailing. Forecourt retailing is high margin business as customers would pay more for buying snacks in the middle of motorway. Management owns a decent stake. Credit: Wexboy) MSAB-B Swedish mobile forensics software provider competing in a niche market with only few other companies. Their competitive edge is number of devices supported by their software. Law enforcement agencies need a reliable platform to quickly extract data from suspect device and decipher messages. 50+% recurring revenues. Mobile forensics market is growing at a decent rate. Lauders HOC Gold and silver miner with South American operations. FTSE 250 and pays a dividend. Reducing debt and as precious metal prices increase so do their profits. If 2018 is financially rocky as some say it will be then HOC should do well. My largest holding by a mile. SDX "Roulette wheel" to some but my 2nd largest holding and I think they will do well in 2018. Egyptian and Moroccan operations of mainly gas. Current drilling has been on a roll & coming up roses. The share-price is under-performing and hopefully will be rerated in 2018. MSLH Been a good year for this company that offers natural stone and concrete hard landscaping products, supplying the construction, home improvement and landscape markets. They are also into street furniture that protects public from some of the terror events we have witnessed over recent years. I believe they will continue to do well and acquire select businesses to expand their offerings. Current offer: 437.30p ITV Think everyone knows about this broadcaster. Been weak lately but the recent Disney/Time Warner news among other things has shifted momentum a bit and a new CEO next year may all mean a better year for the company. Pays dividends and special dividends. Always a chance of a bid/merger with them too. Been mentioned countless times in the past and no doubt will continue. Current offer: 166p BVXP No need to really comment on them here. Everyone pretty much knows the deal and why they are a great BTFD opportunity if the chance ever comes. Current offer: 2550p APAD FEVR a new international brand, creative management, minimal costs, pays a divi, needs to succeed in the US) BOO stunning CEO combination, huge barriers to entry, disruptive, buy direct from the brand not through an on-line shop, big spend but not difficult, no negatives ABC products gain value the more they are used, becoming the gorilla on the block but high costs developing their systems - need to prove success in developing software and distribution centres) BVXP niche technology, hard to compete with, very low costs, losing an income stream, needs to succeed with Siemens collaboration TSTL novel, low cost technology in an important area, international expansion is important, will probably be sold on in a year or two if it continues to be successful thelongandtheshortandthetall Googl (class A): revenue and profit growing growing at approximately 25% per year. Basically no debt. Huge cash reserves - i expect a tax ease on the repatriation of foreign held currency plus the US tax cut will benefit profits. There are too many strings to googles bow to list here. Heres just a couple: Waymo is the most advanced in the driverless car market, youtube, 90% of mobiles run on android etc. Also there is the potential for spin offs. Facebook: basically no debt. Vertual monopoly - Throwing off cash. Regular acquisitions. Super targetted advertising that advertisers will pay a lot for. Slowing user growth but they are now in the monitisation stage. Will benefit from us tax cut and possible repatriation of foreign reserves. Idp: small cosmetics and life science business. Very low debt. Sp way under recent placing. Growing list of brands. All products manufactured by third paries - no need for expensive plant or property. Products are advertised via social media. They are very inventive with their product designs. Usually combining two or three products in one. Ie fake tan and cellulite reducing effects, skin whitening cream with spf50 Caution there is a snake oil feeling that is growing in me. SOM: small company manufacturing industrial concrete levelling machines. Basically no debt and growing cash reserves. World leader in this very niche part of the construction industry. I can see Somero being bought by one of the big boys one day. Should also benefit from us tax cut. Does require continued world commercial construction projects. Cake: slow but steady growing cafe/bakery. Clear plan for more store roll outs - funded internally. Basically no debt and growing cash reserves. No need for huge capital outlays. Valhamos DOTD Dotmailer product has a strong position with ecommerce platforms such as Magento. Growing international presence in US and Far East and recent acquisition enables move to omni-channel communication and customer engagement including live chat and social media. NEXS Recent IPO (July 2017), infrastructure services to housebuilding and commercial sectors, looks set to benefit from government commitment to build 300k houses p.a. Company has 2 division; Tamdown infrastructure and civil engineering services (customers 9 of top 10 largest UK housebuilders) and TriConnex designs, installs, connects utility networks (started in 2011 has shown profit CAGR of 70% since 2013) D4T4 Growth driver is Customer experience (CX) /Customer data platform software through the Celebrus offering along with necessity to meet GPRD requirements next year. Contracts delays impacted recent interims (and share price accordingly) but recent director purchases support company claims to be still on course to meet full year targets. CAKE Patisserie is almost metronomic in its growth and profit performance with increase in ROIC over the years. 199 outlets and targeting 20 new stores this current year each one expected to be profitable from day one with average payback under 2 years. SGP Recent launch of Superdry 5.0 Global Digital Brand strategy marks the next chapter in the company’s development with growth in ecommerce and continued roll-out and investment in US and China. Haywards26 *REDS – Software Solutions and Smart Building systems integrators, providing design, implementation of networks, managed services. Contract wins in 2017 with big name clients, which has confirmed the business traction being gained. *BHRD – a digital marketing group including marketing, technology and e-commerce businesses. Headed by experienced marketing Chairman (Peter Scott ). Profitable with strong growth potential. Business appears to be gaining traction cross selling between various group entities with new large name client wins of late. Buy and build strategy. *BLVN – board removed in 2017 and replaced by the largest shareholder (COC), who have removed the executive directors and turned the company into a holding entity, with two oil projects. Both pre commercialisation, but ETINDE (Cameroon) potentially a very significant discovery. Partnered with New Age/Lukoil further drilling to occur in 2018 to sure up the resource. I expect COC to at this point then to sell the remaining ETINDE asset and return cash to shareholders. Market cap underpinned by Cash on balance sheet. *SRC – a relatively new entity. Operates new and existing construction material assets in places where opportunity is greatest. Main asset is a quarry owned in Guernsey and has the market share supplying materials from the quarry. In addition there has been two recent concrete producers acquired in 2017. Experienced board. Buy and build strategy. Profitable and expect further significant growth . Market cap underpinned by Quarry asset. *RHL – is an engineering business offering design, manufacture, installation, maintenance and decommissioning services, specializing in the nuclear sector. They have had a tough few years due to an Energy to Waste construction contract nightmare. Following this the business has evolved its offering from the more complex and risky construction aspect to nuclear related manufacturing and decommissioning services. Iomax99 Hold all five, final two are LTBH, and have held for quite some time. Part time investor/serial lurker. MGP - leader in its field IT system for radiologists), forecast CARG of 20% for next 3/4 years, with gross margins not far short of 50%. FUTR - Physical/digital specialist publishing, significantly transformed over last couple of years to focus on maximising overall online proposition. BUR - Market leader in litigation finance, strong track record, industry still at an early stage. HL. - Leading fintech in UK online platform space, ambitious plans for further expansion, yet barely scratching the surface of target UK savings market. CVSG - Leading veterinary consolidator, still only have c 14% of UK market (strong acquisition pipeline), strong cross selling of services/continuing to add new/complementary services/ expanding overseas, recent correction overdone. Piedro TSTL - makes hospital disinfectants based on chlorine dioxide. Rest of world sales now approaching 50% of total. Takeover red herring. SRT - involved in marine domain awareness technology. Produce their own equipment and sell complete systems. Very jam tomorrow company waiting for big contracts to arrive so may not make it into the 2019 pick OCN - 75% Brazilian maritime and 25% Investment portfolio. Originally 50:50 the Brazilian part showing all the growth having 2 container terminals and 70 odd tugboats CAM - Principal business is tea followed by nuts and avocados. Seems to have passed through a phase of diworsification getting involved in engineering and banking which are gradually being sold off. MGNS - construction company with a difference. Passed through a period of bad contracts but now more careful preferring many small contracts rather than going for the big one. wskill ISAT leader in maritime sat coms now doing same in airplanes ,equipment best in class fallen back due to investment required to launch additional sats 12 months from now it will have completed most of the expenditures and be receiving income from investment. IGG Also best provider of spread betting and now branching into stockbroking ,with Barclays fiasco will soon pick up steam excellent divi. FLX cyber protection with own software just won a new contract after spending a week in DD having its software hacked it won the contract against stiff competition. HUM gold miner just had its first gold pour full production 130k Oz per year. IDP cosmetics brand just building a portfolio of products. dacian XLM - at the core, they trawl the internet for gamblers and pass them on to casino operators who in turn reward xlm with a cut from the profits. XPD - they're trucking uk frock to eastern Europe and back. A buy and build in a fragmented sector. And they're not bloody truckers, they call themselves freight forwarders ( fancy words for truckers, really :-). FLTA - they're cleaning deep frying oil, in restaurants. Yikes, dirty work. And I can't believe that people do actually pay for that. NTQ - tiny engineer supplying drilling equipment to US shale. Enterprise value (market cap minus cash) circa £3 mil. PCIP - not quite sure what they're up to, something to do with protecting customers' details when making a payment over the phone. RP19 VLE - A conservatively ran company which buys struggling companies, turns them around and sells them on (think Melrose). Share price largely discounts realistic valuations for VLE's investments. Of the current portfolio, Impetus Automotive would seem to offer the most promise. RFX - Northern company with 4 key business segments - foreign currency exchange, pawnbroking loans, buying and selling precious metals and retailing second hand and new jewellery. 120 stores with targeted expansion plans and a small but growing online presence. ASH - Government policy has meant that there have been historic barriers to the company developing its considerable pipeline in the development of extra care and supported living provision. Recent joint venture with Morgan Sindall should unlock the delivery of this pipeline. ASH are also developing a presence in the modular building sector (houses, education facilities, site offices, health care etc) which I view as a growth area (Morgan Sindall also operate in this space). DRV - Company providing engineering and construction consultancy services (planning, project management, dispute resolution etc). Acquired badly and diversified too much. However, would now seem to be a better focussed and more streamlined business. There has been a lot of M&A activity in this sector over the past year or so. FFX - Payments service provider to retail and corporate clients. Excellent TrustPilot reviews. High operational gearing and recent move into SME banking sector. MasterCard also recently given full membership status to FFX. Relatively straight talking narrative from the CEO is also welcomed. che7win TXP: oiler with lots of potential - very undervalued compared to TrInidad peers, will drill 10 wells first half 2018, I view lowish risk. TRIN: another Trinidad oiler with ambitions to grow fast from 3000 bopd - cash flow positive. IDP: in beauty and cosmetics - Skinny Tan range established and new ROOTS hair growth range - selling well. More product launches expected in a busy H1 2018. Low PEG valuation. IMM: finishing Lupus drug trial around now - multibagger potential if successful in short term. FDA fast track designation. SGP: Supergroup - online growth as fast as BOO for a fraction of the price. DiscoDave4 AHT - Ashtead Group is a FTSE 100 plant hire company which operates in the UK as A Plant and in the USA as Sunbelt. It is the second largest plant hire company in the US and generates 86% of its income from North America. It currently has 7% of the US market and is targeting 15% by 2021. Growth will be via acquisitions and organic. Its total earnings have already grown five-fold in the last 5 years and IMO they are expert at timing the cyclical nature of the sector. It is a highly leveraged business so beware. The BOD are very knowledgeable and experienced. Just announced a £500m share buyback programme. Forecast PE 16 and PEG 0.9. BUR - Burford Capital is an AIM listed finance and investment management firm which is primarily focussed on litigation finance. This is (IMO) a unique business which operates in a niche area of expertise and as a result has significant barriers to entry. The CEO (Bogart) knows the business and the sector inside out. Generally analysts fail to be able to value the business and consistently under estimate earnings. Forecast Yr End PE 14.9 and PEG 0.2, 2018 analysts forecast reduced growth with a PE of 21 and PEG -0.8 (how far out will they be!). ENQ - Enquest is a FTSE Small Cap Oil and Gas development and production company. Their business model is simply to acquire assets that the majors do not want anymore and turn them into high yield assets. They have just commissioned a $2.9 billion FPSO for the Kraken oil field of which they have a 70% stake and which will double their total oil production in 2018.They have high net debt but they will be generating sufficient free cash flow to start to pay down their debt during next year. The CEO and family hold about 18% of the shares. Forecast PE 4, PEG 0.02 (?). GAW - Games Workshop is in the style of its previous CEO/Chairman, a FTSE Small Cap that continues to make the best fantasy miniatures in the world, distributes them and sells them at a very nice profit to adults that live only to play with toys!. Three quarters of its sales are overseas so its benefiting from a weak pound. A new product line will be rolling out in 2018 which will extend its successful 40k game across more gaming categories particularly in the US. Forecast PE 15 and PEG 0.2. TAP - Taptica is an AIM listed mobile advertising technology company which is now also expanding into video. Most of its turnover is in the US and continued strong growth is anticipated with margins constantly improving over time. It is rated below fair value IMO but this may also be as a consequence of being an Israeli company. Forecast PE 12, PEG 0.6. Cragside SQZ: Oil sector is a good place to be with rising fossil fuel prices, and this company has valuable oil/gas producing assets in the North Sea and £30m cash. The deal with BP should enhance production seven fold with little cash outlay. Too good to be true? We will find out in 2018 GMD : I am expecting this company to rise further from the ashes. With plenty of cash, and 2 large shareholders, the available shares are limited. A decent trading update should be made in the next couple of weeks due to new consoles, and games released. I like the recent appointment of James Shinehouse as director, and am expecting prolonged growth particularly from its Events, Esports & Digital businesses. KRS: This is definitely not a Value Growth share. More of a speculation on the ability of Dave Reeves to deliver shareholder returns from Australian gold, and Manganese in Togo. Boom or bust with this one but it may be flat in 2018 as it could take at least 2 or 3 years to come to fruition. WSG: A major project in the Middle East has recently catapulted the price of this services and security company which has been loss making for over 5 years. Am expecting more from this transformational deal. D4T4: Data solutions is the business, with increasing turnover and more importantly profits. Modest P/E ratio about half of its peers. Recently announced "Contract wins in key vertical sectors". Four different directors buying decent amounts in November 2017. fozzie SQZ - Ahem, please forgive me one oiler! I hold 7 at the moment and have very high expectations of the sector in 2018 as the rising oil price and cost savings made in the lean years propel earnings. £300m deal with BP will complete in the middle of next year and production is expected to rise 7 fold to 21000bopd. No debt. No debt! Latest IC says SQZ has 'the potential for rapid, near-term equity growth. Buy.' RFX - I have held for over a year but was given an unexpected opportunity to buy recently when following excellent results a seller appeared amid profit taking generally. Stunning results at the end of November almost achieving forecast FY in the first half. Foreign currency broking and trad pawnbroking are its business. Well diversified and cash generative, earnings are growing strongly, oh and they have net cash of £13.4m which is nice ;o) ESG - is a pioneering digital financial transactions technology company. A recent joint partnership with Mastercard has seen its brand Homesend incorporated into Mastercard itself with a target market of $22 trillion. Homesend is a scaleable low cost model. They have signed up 15 banks this year, 5 in the last 2 months. Cash raise recently 'The Board of eServGlobal believes that the proceeds will allow HomeSend to better focus on the far larger than expected growth opportunities in the cross-border banking market' i like that bit! AEO - is a live events specialist. The two founders left the board recently so a new team is in place, 'The board is very supportive of the new management team and believes that the Company is well positioned and has the resources and skills to build a much stronger business'. Results on Nov 10 were reassuring with a healthy balance sheet, at 30p £2.7M mcap but with £1.9M in cash. Divi cut back 'in anticipation of future development initiatives to build shareholder value' SPSY - Spectra Systems manufactures products for industries that include brand authentication, document and mail processing, drug discovery, textile services and digital optical media. I began buying several years ago at sub 20p and have recently bought a lot more in the 80p area. Share price is lower now than in October when company gave an 'ahead' statement. Should be a trading update in early Jan 18. There has been a seller from 108 down to current 80p area. Katie Potts Herald IT took a decent slug at 100p earlier in the year. If last divi payment was maintained we would have a yield of 10% here, wishful thinking perhaps. Dibbs TAP, great performer this year and still modestly valued. Suffering as it always has from a foreign AIM stock penalty but they haven’t put a foot wrong. With the Tremor acquisition due to boost earnings along with expansion into new geographical territories I can’t see any reason not to pick TAP again. Mobile advertising is forecast to grow rapidly for several years yet and if the market does apply a higher multiple then a share price far higher is quite possible. WJG, another 2017 pick, the developer and constructor of student accommodation also now moving into the build to rent market. Still on a modest PE and with excellent forward earnings visibility which gives investors comfort and for my mind should give decent scope for earnings upgrades. A bit boring again but if the market turns it will hopefully hold up pretty well. MGP, new to the market this year and little loved thus far. Funnily, detractors seem to forget that the shares are still 50% up from the float price. Since opening at a healthy premium the shares have traded side ways with a few large shareholders moving on and recently Old Mutual emerging with a large holding that they continue to add to, now above 18%. MGP are leaders in teleradiology with their Nighthawk service offering hospitals very rapid reads of scans that they can’t hope to match in house. Radiologists unsurprisingly seem to be preferring to work from home, picking their hours rather than work in a pretty grim NHS hospital. As more leave the NHS’s ability to offer a decent service themselves will reduce so it seems that in time MGP will pick up more and more trusts. The shares aren’t cheap but quality rarely is. FFX, A relatively new holding for me. FFX looks to be gathering momentum with a significant acquisition completed this summer. Transaction volumes are set to rise rapidly and at the same time FFX’s fees are set to increase. House broker forecasts suggest a period of very rapid growth is ahead. IDP, A volatile share price and high Muppet concentration on the BB don’t do this one many favours but this company’s share price could do very well if the management can execute competently. Skinny Tan has performed very well and looks set to continue to grow, especially if they can make inroads into the US market where they have made what looks a good appointment. Roots, their hair care products are looking promising with good sales building through Superdrug. Plenty of execution challenges/ risks but then again that applies to most companies.
31/12/2017
21:23
dibbs: I know I don’t contribute anything to this thread but when I get a chance it is a favourite to look in on. I greatly appreciate the thoughts of the main contributors. After a great year this year I have to say I’m looking to 2018 with much lower expectations. The market has been good for so long with Bitcoin mania illustrating that all rational thought has left the building in certain areas of the market. On the other hand there are stocks that appear to have the potential to maintain rapid growth so in theory their share prices could still appreciate. As they say though, a rising tide carries all ships higher but the converse tends also to apply so if we do see a correction even the stocks growing earnings will still take a hit. I’m planning to remain invested but not so fully so I can in theory buy into a wobble to make a bit back on a rebound. I retain many of the same holdings as I did a year or more ago so my 2018 picks feature some of the same stocks as for 2017. TAP, great performer this year and still modestly valued. Suffering as it always has from a foreign AIM stock penalty but they haven’t put a foot wrong. With the Tremor acquisition due to boost earnings along with expansion into new geographical territories I can’t see any reason not to pick TAP again. Mobile advertising is forecast to grow rapidly for several years yet and if the market does apply a higher multiple then a share price far higher is quite possible. WJG, another 2017 pick, the developer and constructor of student accommodation also now moving into the build to rent market. Still on a modest PE and with excellent forward earnings visibility which gives investors comfort and for my mind should give decent scope for earnings upgrades. A bit boring again but if the market turns it will hopefully hold up pretty well. MGP, new to the market this year and little loved thus far. Funnily, detractors seem to forget that the shares are still 50% up from the float price. Since opening at a healthy premium the shares have traded side ways with a few large shareholders moving on and recently Old Mutual emerging with a large holding that they continue to add to, now above 18%. MGP are leaders in teleradiology with their Nighthawk service offering hospitals very rapid reads of scans that they can’t hope to match in house. Radiologists unsurprisingly seem to be preferring to work from home, picking their hours rather than work in a pretty grim NHS hospital. As more leave the NHS’s ability to offer a decent service themselves will reduce so it seems that in time MGP will pick up more and more trusts. The shares aren’t cheap but quality rarely is. FFX, A relatively new holding for me. FFX looks to be gathering momentum with a significant acquisition completed this summer. Transaction volumes are set to rise rapidly and at the same time FFX’s fees are set to increase. House broker forecasts suggest a period of very rapid growth is ahead. IDP, A volatile share price and high Muppet concentration on the BB don’t do this one many favours but this company’s share price could do very well if the management can execute competently. Skinny Tan has performed very well and looks set to continue to grow, especially if they can make inroads into the US market where they have made what looks a good appointment. Roots, their hair care products are looking promising with good sales building through Superdrug. Plenty of execution challenges/ risks but then again that applies to most companies. Wishing all a very Happy and healthy New Year! Dibbs
30/12/2017
10:58
apad: Comments to date: Multibagger ARC Been in ARC for several years ago now. Stickiness of blue chip customers (only 2 customer losses over 10 years apparently), strong cash generation rate, no debt, hold about £2.6m cash, and now dividend paying (progressive policy indicated). New products in trials at 5 Tier 1 banks and participant in Symphony and OpenMAMA forums which could widen the addressable market. Very conservative, low key management and accounting style - the typical boring but solid company with high barriers to entry. Management seem quietly confident. IDEA Big UK player in Governance, Risk and Compliance (GRC) software space with several high profile customers across health, banking, rail, air transportation etc. About 160 NHS Trusts and all the Scottish NHS Trusts use them. Also 8 out of top 10 accounting groups use them.Growing upwards of 20%+ year on year. Solid track record of integrating acquisitions, paying down manageable debt and dividend paying. IQE Strong IP portfolio, proven tech capability and strong backing from Welsh government, massive expansion of manufacturing capacity in train and oversubscribed £100m recent placing. Technology has high barriers to entry and long lead times for competitors to try and catch up. I expect it to be acquired for the tech/IP in due course.I missed the ARM story, but won't miss this one. High PE stock - for cutting edge tech PE is the wrong metric, though not sure which metric ever makes sense. LTG Very strong track record of Andrew Brode (in particular) and Jonathan Satchell who own about 30-40% of the company. Strong suite of customisable products, complementary strategic acquisitions and excellent geographic spread. High US income through Rustici acquisition (may benefit from Trump's tax reforms). Online/elearning market can only get bigger. Successful ongoing delivery of a massive UK civil service contract (in conjunction with KPMG) could be a reference customer for further Whitehall contracts given Brexit. Serviceable debt and dividend paying. Intention to develop into a 100 million business (having upped target from a 50 million business). CYAN Looks like at the threshold of a turnaround in fortunes with smart metering space (electricity, gas, water and now IoT) developing at a rapid pace across the world. About $100m purchase orders signed over the last year or so across a number of countries - Sweden,UK, Iran, Bangladesh, India. Works with local/in country partners who do the implementation and CYAN provides the technology/communication solutions and is partnering a number of meter manufacturers, as the tech is meter agnostic. Excellent suite of communication technologies which are able to address different economic market segments, local terrain and built up area issues and at differing points of the technology maturity cycle. Expects to get at least £25m from UK "not spot coverage" in UK smart meter rollout. Moving from a hardware to a recurrent software, multi year, per meter revenue model (not very different from ARM model broadly speaking). John Cronin, Chairman has a good track record of several successful exits/sell ons (about £650m according to company website). Directors including JC took one year salaries in equity...and have bought the dips/propped up the share price. redartbmud Arc Maiden dividend announced, which indicates that the business is maturing as a strong business generating good cash returns. Plenty of scope for it’s products in the market. Vanl Undemanding rating and an active shareholder who is the former holder. He will keep the management honest and certainly on their toes to outperform. Outside chance of a takeover. Ltg Expect more activity. The statement below says it all. When the AIM-listed firm entered the market in 2013 it sought to achieve run-rate revenues of £50m and EBITDA margins of 20% by the end of 2018, but Learning Technologies' 2017 interim results revealed that the company had hit targets twelve months ahead of schedule. However, as part of Tuesday's event, the e-learning group outlined a plan focused on doubling run-rate revenues to £100m with an EBITDA in excess of £25m by the end of 2020. Learning Technologies said it planned to achieve the new objectives through a combination of strong organic growth paired with strategic acquisitions that complemented its current business model. Rpc operating in a fragmented market, ripe for further consolidation. The tintins marked it down on the number of acquisitions in the year. I think that they are wrong, and expect more activity and further organic and acquisition based growth in 2018. Cost savings along the line. Rws – Unfortunately keeps issuing paper, but continuing to build a niche business in a growing market. The purchase of Moravia is transformational. Mattjos AAZ Low cost of production & AISC, valued at 25% of the CAPEX to date on the Gedabek plant & equipment. Sat on a huge, mainly unexplored, acreage although previous Russian data (as given in the IPO docs) gives a strong indication what is really present. New Director of Geology (Stephen Westhead ex. Polyus) is really starting to make his mark and has already found the previously unknown Ugur deposit right on their doorstep. The CEO has leant his own cash to the company on two occasions rather than dilute the precious equity - a rare event for an AIM miner. NED Prof. John Monhemius is one of the worlds leading authorities on pm processing techniques & has been instrumental in their SART plant and then how to process the complex ore using combination of Agitation then Flotation or, Flotation then Agitation. They have a surplus of both oxide and sulphide ore now stacked at Gedabek in case of any harsh winter weather this year. The underground exploration activities at Gedabek this winter and the fan drilling scheduled for early 2018 are likely to prove the catalysts for a big increase in JORC resources. Meanwhile, the healthy cashflow keeps reducing the debt (on plan). News over the next 3 months needs to be watched very closely. Against all this, the state mining entity AZERGOLD has a gold mine close by but lacks the technical skills to develop it effectively .. A bid for the entirety of AAZ is a possibility and at even 3x current price is dirt cheap STAR It has some persuasive tracking technology and I believe will reach a point in 2018 where recurring revenues cover their costs. The business model looks very appealing & so too the potential for rapid scale-up. STCM It is simply far too cheap and looks a perfect takeover target in the acquisitive global cement market. A unique dry-line operation in Kaz. SYM It is a long term serial underperformer but, now has a strong major investor (Somerston) with a seat on the board and they are turning this company from a lifestyle operation into a solid business. Looks likely to pay a maiden divi next year. Strong marketing/branding and big distribution pipeline in place to push new products. Strong Bed'n'Isa activity by Directors this year. WTI It is probably the riskiest one but, Orion seem strongly persuaded of the opportunity and the recent acquisition of Katumba from a reluctant but forced seller (Intrepid Mines) looks transformational. Highly leveraged to copper price so a mining play on EV adoption. Gsbmba99 Arcontech (ARC) for reasons Janeann mentioned. Shares are good value. They get paid in advance. Lots of cash on the balance sheet. Have already stated they have enough cash so, in absence of any M&A, could show interesting dividend growth. New product currently in trials. Mortgage Advice Bureau (MAB1) 2H17 gross mortgage lending has been up high single digits YoY and UKFinance/Council of Mortgage Lenders recently upgraded 2017 and 2018 forecasts (albeit modestly). New technology being introduced to reduce paperwork which should hopefully benefit adviser productivity. Opening up of product switch market (new mortgage with same lender) means market opportunity £90bn (or +30%) larger than 18 months ago. New direct to consumer advertising commences in 2018. Despite recent senior hires and advertising, no change to forecasts whereas most companies would have reduced as a result of "investing" for growth. Makes me think things are going a bit better than previously planned. Liontrust (LIO) They bought the sustainable investments business from Alliance Trust in April. They hired a new head of distribution about a year ago. They've hired a fixed income manager and strategist who, judging by the Kames funds on Trustnet that changed manager the day before LIO announced their arrival, used to co-manage Kames Strategic Global Bond ($638 AuM according to Trustnet), Kames Strategic Bond (£320m), Kames High Yield Bond (£908m) and Kames Sterling Corporate Bond (£604m). If 10% of his prior clients follow him, could lead to nice amount of net new money. Also, Reade Griffith (Polygon) owns 10%. Jarvis Securities (JIM) I am hoping for EPS growth attractively into double digits for duration of interest rate raising cycle. See my previous comments on thread. Premier Asset Management (PAM) It's a retail focused asset manager that distributes almost exclusively through IFAs. They have a bit of a niche in the "income" category and within that in multi-asset funds. From the admission document (pdf page 17): "The IA has identified multi-asset and income funds as long term beneficiaries of changes in the UK pensions and retirement market and AUM invested in the multi-asset market in the UK has grown by a CAGR of 20.2 per cent. over the past 10 years." For reference, 1.202^10-1=529%. Every quarter since fiscal Q313 has seen positive net new money. The distribution platform is powerful with >£500m of gross sales in each of last four quarters. Unfortunately, net sales over that period "only" £746m. The fact that a surprisingly large proportion of their customers are in pre-RDR funds means that revenue and costs are distorted. Net management fee (after payment of trail commission): £27.6m (FY15), £33.3m (FY16), £40.9m (FY17). Costs (excl. trail commission): £20m (FY15), £22.8m (FY16), £26.6m (FY17). Op margin (% net revenue excl trail commission): 27.5% (FY15), 31.5% (FY16), 35% (FY17). That's 750bps of additional margin created through net revenue rising faster than net costs. Because it's retail oriented, I can track progress through the fund fact sheets (which represent 94% of corporate AuM). AuM increased at 13/23 funds in Jun, 19/24 in Jul, 17/23 in Aug, 16/23 in Sep, 22/23 in Oct and 16/23 in Nov despite most of the funds paying dividends very regularly (sometimes monthly). AuM movement: -£8.4m (Jun), £120.1m (Jul), £75.6m (Aug), £68.5m (Sep), £181.3m (Oct) and £48.5m (Nov). The multi-asset series of funds were £2.884bn as at May and were £3.225bn as at Nov. Valuation not nearly as cheap as it was so return may be down to EPS growth. Janeann ACSO Global ticketing specialist providing technology to improve customer experience primarily in leisure attractions theme parks etc. Leader in its field. Started out to avoid queueing at theme parks and developed since. Large global customer base. Growing by both expansion and acquisition, and growth expected to continue. ARC Is a small niche player and provides solutions to managing real time market data - both software and consultancy. Number of very high profile clients with recurring revenue streams. Recently started paying dividends. LTG is a dividend paying company providing digital learning solutions and interactive media programmes to a broad range of clients including government. Aiming to grow by both broadening its range of products and clients across a broader geographic range as well as via acquisition. PRSM Software company specialising and leading the field in development of robotic process automation particularly of more routing back office tasks enabling the freeing up staff to do more productive tasks. Globally active in events and with a diverse range of high profile partners prsm is at the forefront of the developing technology. ZTF Specialist manufacturer of plastic foam for a very broad and diverse range of industries including sports, automotive & construction. Many specialist uses and complex production process. Recent deal with Nike. Expanded production base in China now coming onstream and plans to expand in UK also. Dividend payer. Attrader Burford Capital They provide finance for litigations which is a market in flux. Historically, they have been generating 25% IRR on their investments. Litigation business is uncorrelated with rest of economy which should reduce risk in portfolio. Ample room to compound capital as market is still growing. Credit: Hydrus IG Index UK Based spread betting operator with exceptional customer service. They were hit by potential new regulations however they are diversifying into traditional brokerage businesses (SIPP, ISAs). That should improve stickiness of revenues and reduce necessity to constantly recruit new clients. High returns on capital, good management. Like the CEO. Credit: APAD Amadeus Spanish market leader in processing travel transactions. More people traveling due to cheap flights, growing middle class and wealth generation in Asia. Sticky revenues with potential to grow at 6% in line with market growth. Credit: Terry Smith) AppleGreen Irish forecourt retailer acquiring petrol stations from oil majors exiting the business. They refurbish forecourts, rebrand them, add food & cloth retailing. Forecourt retailing is high margin business as customers would pay more for buying snacks in the middle of motorway. Management owns a decent stake. Credit: Wexboy) MSAB-B Swedish mobile forensics software provider competing in a niche market with only few other companies. Their competitive edge is number of devices supported by their software. Law enforcement agencies need a reliable platform to quickly extract data from suspect device and decipher messages. 50+% recurring revenues. Mobile forensics market is growing at a decent rate. Lauders HOC Gold and silver miner with South American operations. FTSE 250 and pays a dividend. Reducing debt and as precious metal prices increase so do their profits. If 2018 is financially rocky as some say it will be then HOC should do well. My largest holding by a mile. SDX "Roulette wheel" to some but my 2nd largest holding and I think they will do well in 2018. Egyptian and Moroccan operations of mainly gas. Current drilling has been on a roll & coming up roses. The share-price is under-performing and hopefully will be rerated in 2018. MSLH Been a good year for this company that offers natural stone and concrete hard landscaping products, supplying the construction, home improvement and landscape markets. They are also into street furniture that protects public from some of the terror events we have witnessed over recent years. I believe they will continue to do well and acquire select businesses to expand their offerings. Current offer: 437.30p ITV Think everyone knows about this broadcaster. Been weak lately but the recent Disney/Time Warner news among other things has shifted momentum a bit and a new CEO next year may all mean a better year for the company. Pays dividends and special dividends. Always a chance of a bid/merger with them too. Been mentioned countless times in the past and no doubt will continue. Current offer: 166p BVXP No need to really comment on them here. Everyone pretty much knows the deal and why they are a great BTFD opportunity if the chance ever comes. Current offer: 2550p APAD FEVR a new international brand, creative management, minimal costs, pays a divi, needs to succeed in the US) BOO stunning CEO combination, huge barriers to entry, disruptive, buy direct from the brand not through an on-line shop, big spend but not difficult, no negatives ABC products gain value the more they are used, becoming the gorilla on the block but high costs developing their systems - need to prove success in developing software and distribution centres) BVXP niche technology, hard to compete with, very low costs, losing an income stream, needs to succeed with Siemens collaboration TSTL novel, low cost technology in an important area, international expansion is important, will probably be sold on in a year or two if it continues to be successful thelongandtheshortandthetall Googl (class A): revenue and profit growing growing at approximately 25% per year. Basically no debt. Huge cash reserves - i expect a tax ease on the repatriation of foreign held currency plus the US tax cut will benefit profits. There are too many strings to googles bow to list here. Heres just a couple: Waymo is the most advanced in the driverless car market, youtube, 90% of mobiles run on android etc. Also there is the potential for spin offs. Facebook: basically no debt. Vertual monopoly - Throwing off cash. Regular acquisitions. Super targetted advertising that advertisers will pay a lot for. Slowing user growth but they are now in the monitisation stage. Will benefit from us tax cut and possible repatriation of foreign reserves. Idp: small cosmetics and life science business. Very low debt. Sp way under recent placing. Growing list of brands. All products manufactured by third paries - no need for expensive plant or property. Products are advertised via social media. They are very inventive with their product designs. Usually combining two or three products in one. Ie fake tan and cellulite reducing effects, skin whitening cream with spf50 Caution there is a snake oil feeling that is growing in me. SOM: small company manufacturing industrial concrete levelling machines. Basically no debt and growing cash reserves. World leader in this very niche part of the construction industry. I can see Somero being bought by one of the big boys one day. Should also benefit from us tax cut. Does require continued world commercial construction projects. Cake: slow but steady growing cafe/bakery. Clear plan for more store roll outs - funded internally. Basically no debt and growing cash reserves. No need for huge capital outlays. Valhamos DOTD Dotmailer product has a strong position with ecommerce platforms such as Magento. Growing international presence in US and Far East and recent acquisition enables move to omni-channel communication and customer engagement including live chat and social media. NEXS Recent IPO (July 2017), infrastructure services to housebuilding and commercial sectors, looks set to benefit from government commitment to build 300k houses p.a. Company has 2 division; Tamdown infrastructure and civil engineering services (customers 9 of top 10 largest UK housebuilders) and TriConnex designs, installs, connects utility networks (started in 2011 has shown profit CAGR of 70% since 2013) D4T4 Growth driver is Customer experience (CX) /Customer data platform software through the Celebrus offering along with necessity to meet GPRD requirements next year. Contracts delays impacted recent interims (and share price accordingly) but recent director purchases support company claims to be still on course to meet full year targets. CAKE Patisserie is almost metronomic in its growth and profit performance with increase in ROIC over the years. 199 outlets and targeting 20 new stores this current year each one expected to be profitable from day one with average payback under 2 years. SGP Recent launch of Superdry 5.0 Global Digital Brand strategy marks the next chapter in the company’s development with growth in ecommerce and continued roll-out and investment in US and China. Haywards26 *REDS – Software Solutions and Smart Building systems integrators, providing design, implementation of networks, managed services. Contract wins in 2017 with big name clients, which has confirmed the business traction being gained. *BHRD – a digital marketing group including marketing, technology and e-commerce businesses. Headed by experienced marketing Chairman (Peter Scott ). Profitable with strong growth potential. Business appears to be gaining traction cross selling between various group entities with new large name client wins of late. Buy and build strategy. *BLVN – board removed in 2017 and replaced by the largest shareholder (COC), who have removed the executive directors and turned the company into a holding entity, with two oil projects. Both pre commercialisation, but ETINDE (Cameroon) potentially a very significant discovery. Partnered with New Age/Lukoil further drilling to occur in 2018 to sure up the resource. I expect COC to at this point then to sell the remaining ETINDE asset and return cash to shareholders. Market cap underpinned by Cash on balance sheet. *SRC – a relatively new entity. Operates new and existing construction material assets in places where opportunity is greatest. Main asset is a quarry owned in Guernsey and has the market share supplying materials from the quarry. In addition there has been two recent concrete producers acquired in 2017. Experienced board. Buy and build strategy. Profitable and expect further significant growth . Market cap underpinned by Quarry asset. *RHL – is an engineering business offering design, manufacture, installation, maintenance and decommissioning services, specializing in the nuclear sector. They have had a tough few years due to an Energy to Waste construction contract nightmare. Following this the business has evolved its offering from the more complex and risky construction aspect to nuclear related manufacturing and decommissioning services. Iomax99 Hold all five, final two are LTBH, and have held for quite some time. Part time investor/serial lurker. MGP - leader in its field IT system for radiologists), forecast CARG of 20% for next 3/4 years, with gross margins not far short of 50%. FUTR - Physical/digital specialist publishing, significantly transformed over last couple of years to focus on maximising overall online proposition. BUR - Market leader in litigation finance, strong track record, industry still at an early stage. HL. - Leading fintech in UK online platform space, ambitious plans for further expansion, yet barely scratching the surface of target UK savings market. CVSG - Leading veterinary consolidator, still only have c 14% of UK market (strong acquisition pipeline), strong cross selling of services/continuing to add new/complementary services/ expanding overseas, recent correction overdone. Piedro TSTL - makes hospital disinfectants based on chlorine dioxide. Rest of world sales now approaching 50% of total. Takeover red herring. SRT - involved in marine domain awareness technology. Produce their own equipment and sell complete systems. Very jam tomorrow company waiting for big contracts to arrive so may not make it into the 2019 pick OCN - 75% Brazilian maritime and 25% Investment portfolio. Originally 50:50 the Brazilian part showing all the growth having 2 container terminals and 70 odd tugboats CAM - Principal business is tea followed by nuts and avocados. Seems to have passed through a phase of diworsification getting involved in engineering and banking which are gradually being sold off. MGNS - construction company with a difference. Passed through a period of bad contracts but now more careful preferring many small contracts rather than going for the big one. wskill ISAT leader in maritime sat coms now doing same in airplanes ,equipment best in class fallen back due to investment required to launch additional sats 12 months from now it will have completed most of the expenditures and be receiving income from investment. IGG Also best provider of spread betting and now branching into stockbroking ,with Barclays fiasco will soon pick up steam excellent divi. FLX cyber protection with own software just won a new contract after spending a week in DD having its software hacked it won the contract against stiff competition. HUM gold miner just had its first gold pour full production 130k Oz per year. IDP cosmetics brand just building a portfolio of products. dacian XLM - at the core, they trawl the internet for gamblers and pass them on to casino operators who in turn reward xlm with a cut from the profits. XPD - they're trucking uk frock to eastern Europe and back. A buy and build in a fragmented sector. And they're not bloody truckers, they call themselves freight forwarders ( fancy words for truckers, really :-). FLTA - they're cleaning deep frying oil, in restaurants. Yikes, dirty work. And I can't believe that people do actually pay for that. NTQ - tiny engineer supplying drilling equipment to US shale. Enterprise value (market cap minus cash) circa £3 mil. PCIP - not quite sure what they're up to, something to do with protecting customers' details when making a payment over the phone. RP19 VLE - A conservatively ran company which buys struggling companies, turns them around and sells them on (think Melrose). Share price largely discounts realistic valuations for VLE's investments. Of the current portfolio, Impetus Automotive would seem to offer the most promise. RFX - Northern company with 4 key business segments - foreign currency exchange, pawnbroking loans, buying and selling precious metals and retailing second hand and new jewellery. 120 stores with targeted expansion plans and a small but growing online presence. ASH - Government policy has meant that there have been historic barriers to the company developing its considerable pipeline in the development of extra care and supported living provision. Recent joint venture with Morgan Sindall should unlock the delivery of this pipeline. ASH are also developing a presence in the modular building sector (houses, education facilities, site offices, health care etc) which I view as a growth area (Morgan Sindall also operate in this space). DRV - Company providing engineering and construction consultancy services (planning, project management, dispute resolution etc). Acquired badly and diversified too much. However, would now seem to be a better focussed and more streamlined business. There has been a lot of M&A activity in this sector over the past year or so. FFX - Payments service provider to retail and corporate clients. Excellent TrustPilot reviews. High operational gearing and recent move into SME banking sector. MasterCard also recently given full membership status to FFX. Relatively straight talking narrative from the CEO is also welcomed. che7win TXP: oiler with lots of potential - very undervalued compared to TrInidad peers, will drill 10 wells first half 2018, I view lowish risk. TRIN: another Trinidad oiler with ambitions to grow fast from 3000 bopd - cash flow positive. IDP: in beauty and cosmetics - Skinny Tan range established and new ROOTS hair growth range - selling well. More product launches expected in a busy H1 2018. Low PEG valuation. IMM: finishing Lupus drug trial around now - multibagger potential if successful in short term. FDA fast track designation. SGP: Supergroup - online growth as fast as BOO for a fraction of the price. DiscoDave4 AHT - Ashtead Group is a FTSE 100 plant hire company which operates in the UK as A Plant and in the USA as Sunbelt. It is the second largest plant hire company in the US and generates 86% of its income from North America. It currently has 7% of the US market and is targeting 15% by 2021. Growth will be via acquisitions and organic. Its total earnings have already grown five-fold in the last 5 years and IMO they are expert at timing the cyclical nature of the sector. It is a highly leveraged business so beware. The BOD are very knowledgeable and experienced. Just announced a £500m share buyback programme. Forecast PE 16 and PEG 0.9. BUR - Burford Capital is an AIM listed finance and investment management firm which is primarily focussed on litigation finance. This is (IMO) a unique business which operates in a niche area of expertise and as a result has significant barriers to entry. The CEO (Bogart) knows the business and the sector inside out. Generally analysts fail to be able to value the business and consistently under estimate earnings. Forecast Yr End PE 14.9 and PEG 0.2, 2018 analysts forecast reduced growth with a PE of 21 and PEG -0.8 (how far out will they be!). ENQ - Enquest is a FTSE Small Cap Oil and Gas development and production company. Their business model is simply to acquire assets that the majors do not want anymore and turn them into high yield assets. They have just commissioned a $2.9 billion FPSO for the Kraken oil field of which they have a 70% stake and which will double their total oil production in 2018.They have high net debt but they will be generating sufficient free cash flow to start to pay down their debt during next year. The CEO and family hold about 18% of the shares. Forecast PE 4, PEG 0.02 (?). GAW - Games Workshop is in the style of its previous CEO/Chairman, a FTSE Small Cap that continues to make the best fantasy miniatures in the world, distributes them and sells them at a very nice profit to adults that live only to play with toys!. Three quarters of its sales are overseas so its benefiting from a weak pound. A new product line will be rolling out in 2018 which will extend its successful 40k game across more gaming categories particularly in the US. Forecast PE 15 and PEG 0.2. TAP - Taptica is an AIM listed mobile advertising technology company which is now also expanding into video. Most of its turnover is in the US and continued strong growth is anticipated with margins constantly improving over time. It is rated below fair value IMO but this may also be as a consequence of being an Israeli company. Forecast PE 12, PEG 0.6.
15/12/2017
11:10
stephen2010: Check out ALBA. Huge multibag potential. ALBA currently trading at 0.39p target price 6p making a nice 15 bagger. Please read the following: MARKET CAP PUZZLE ❖ Alba (market cap £8.4m) is in a resources neighbourhood populated with listed companies with much enhanced market capitalisations, such as UKOG.L (£134m) and JAY.L (£172m). With either shared project interests or adjacent tenements to these companies, Alba should trade at a much higher valuation than its current token value. Like Bluejay, Alba owns 100% of its ilmenite project. Direct comparisons with UKOG are also instructive. While both companies own other projects, UKOG’s 49.9% of Horse Hill Developments Limited (HHDL), when compared to Alba’s 18.1% means that Alba has approximately one third of the value of Horse Hill compared to UKOG but only about 7% of the market capitalisation. Once the market recognises these disparities, the room for growth in Alba’s share price is undeniable. VALUATION RATIONALE - Our valuation in this First Equity Limited initiation note uses a risked valuation approach for Alba’s two main projects, at Horse Hill and TBS. The Horse Hill licences are valued using independent published technical data from Schlumberger, Xodus and Nutech on the oil potential of the licences, along with our own assumptions on recovery rates, oil discovery value, resource and development risks factors. From this a risked value of $127m net to Alba on a ‘Base Case’ basis is derived for Horse Hill. Given the similar geology and economic potential of both TBS and Dundas, we have adopted a risked closeology valuation approach, by computing an NPV for Dundas of $223m and then applying a three-tiered risked probability calculation to arrive at a value of $54.7m for TBS. Once Alba announce its JORC resource and exploration target at TBS and Bluejay its Feasibility Study results, this number is likely to be revised upwards very rapidly, possibly up to $200m, representing up to 7p per share in additional shareholder value. We compute a valuation of $185m (£139m) for Alba, equating to 6.0p per share, of which 4.1p is attributed to the stake in Horse Hill, 1.8p for TBS. Given this analysis and wealth of valuation catalysts anticipated across the project portfolio in the coming months, we recommend the shares as a ‘BUY, with a Target Price of 6.0p, representing a potential 15 times plus uplift from the current share price.
08/12/2017
16:16
apad: IC CVS pays the price for high expectations The veterinary group has experienced a major share price sell-off MEGAN BOXALL T he annual general meeting of veterinary group CVS (CVSG) is usually an opportunity for management to proudly reveal that recent acquisitions have sent profits way ahead of expectations. Normally, what proceeds is a flurry of broker upgrades andastampede to buy the shares. Not so this time around. News that like-for-like revenue growth has slowed to 4.3 per cent wiped 30 per cent off the group’s share price in three days. The price has been paid for high expectations. To a certain extent, the drop in organic revenue growth can be explained by the extraordinarily strong performance last year: in the four months to September 2016, revenues grew 6.3 per cent on a like-for-like basis. But management has also pointed to a slowdown in the UK veterinary marketplace, which they think may have been caused by economic instability, and a drop in the number of clinicians. Moreover, exclude the Animed Direct online veterinary retail division – which reported a 60 per cent increase in sales–and the underlying business only grew 1.5 per cent in the first four months of the financial year, compared with 6.3 per cent in the year to June 2017. And yet overall revenue growth remains just as spectacular as ever at 20.6 per cent. The group spent £20m on 21 new surgeries in the period, taking the total number of sites up to 444 (from 378 in the comparable period last year). Those acquisitions span the UK–from north Scotland to south Wales – and cover domestic animals, farm animals and horses. Four new sites have been added in Northern Ireland and three in the Netherlands, including the first Dutch equine business. But the price of veterinary practices has climbed to roughly 10 times adjusted cash profits, according to brokers at Peel Hunt, compared with the historic range of six to eight times. CVS has spent £6.5m more in the first four months of the current financial year than last, for just three more surgeries. But there are positives. More expensive surgeries mean more willing sellers and CVS maintains the financial firepower to keep growing via acquisition: net debt is forecast to fall to just 1.7 times adjusted cash profits by the end of June 2018 thanks to the group’s ability to generate cash. • The recent turn of events will have been disappointing for followers of our buy tip. However, we also think the sell-off is a major over-reaction to moderately disappointing news. With the shares now trading on 17 times forward earnings, we think this is an ideal opportunity for investors to top up their holdings. Buy at 915p.
20/10/2017
06:10
11_percent: SDX. Notes from flaberghast on lse Went to tonight’s presentation in London here’s my thoughts. I managed to talk to him afterwards.. First off, he said they’re definitely not thinking of raising anything in the near future. While they are actively looking to acquire assets in North Africa, due to competition over those distressed assets they will certainly not be able to “steal” anything as they did with Circle. Therefore the deal will have to be right for the company, and in their eyes, obviously value accretive. He said they would be looking at a mixture of debt, cash and equity to fund those targets depending on location and size. He didn’t give a definite estimate in the size of the targets, only that some of them would be larger than Circle. In terms of targets, the likes of SOU’s concessions in Morocco are not on the list as they do not fit the profile. He did say they would be looking at Naftogaz but the deal would have to be good. In terms of production, he said everything was ticking over nicely and Q3 results would be out sometime in November (no specific date). He said that they would be looking to update the market on drilling in Morocco when they feel it is appropriate and not just to chase the share price but he seemed very optimistic of drills to come and said that they had met the time targets of drilling in Morocco they’d aimed to achieve and found gas in the first well. He’s hoping that each well will be drilled in a time of 2 weeks but that the next one would probably be closer to 3. He said the 5 year gas contracts they’re negotiating in Morocco for production from KSR are between $10-12/mcf, so about a 20% increase to those previously which is great. He said demand in the region was double of their current pipeline capacity so he hopes to keep growing production rapidly in Morocco as margins are so high and the oil and gas regime is one of the best in the world. In terms of Egypt, he’s meeting with the minister next week to negotiate gas sales contracts from South Disouq beginning Q1 next year. He said it’s like negotiating with the Souk sellers so he couldn’t give a date as to when he expected a deal to be made. He thought they were in a strong position to negotiate a good deal as production would be coming online just as the country hits peak energy usage next summer. He said they’d made some further progress with receivables and it was now closer to $7m recovered and there was no reason why the balance wouldn’t be cleared by the end of next year. In terms of the most recent discoveries at Rabul and KSR-14, he was very surprised at the reaction of the share price given they will be in production so quickly. He wouldn’t comment on his thoughts for the stagnation in the share price, just that if he were to get a takeover offer atm, it would have to be many multiples of the share price Lastly he reiterated that the aim over the next 3 years is still to create a $1bn company
19/10/2017
18:28
hydrus: I see Paul Scott has today touched on the point I made earlier about re-ratings: 'The danger is that investors think we're investing Gods, because our portfolios have risen a lot. However in many cases, as Zytronic demonstrates, the share price rise from 375p to 577p has been driven mainly by multiple expansion - i.e. the market valuing the company on 20 times, instead of 14 times future earnings.Whereas earnings expectations have only risen from 26.0p to 28.6p. In other words, a 10% increase in earnings expectations fed through into a 54% share price rise in the last year. By far the largest factor for the 54% share price rise is expansion of the PER from 14 to 20. This is dangerous, as it's bull market stuff, which can very easily reverse back to normal (mean reversion) in a bear market.'I do think that one or two of the posters on here would do well to reflect on his opening line.
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