Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[madmix] 21/3/2017 16:05

APAD,

Not tempted by an ABC top-up at these levels? Some reasonable size director buys around the £8.40 level, and now trading at £8.05.

[martywidget] 21/3/2017 16:04

21 Mar '17 - 13:45 - 9234 of 9239 0 0
End of FEVR saga - deja vu all over again

....Had a quick look at the PrettyBoyQuicklyBackward board to cheer myself up for missing the FEVR low.
The church of Confirmation Bias is alive and well.
How folks can be so confident in their speculations when looking at a car crash of a share price is beyond me.

apad


Hi APAD,

I asked Widget what he thought the Fever-Tree share price would do, and here is his confirmation bias response:



;)

[madmix] 21/3/2017 15:43

APAD,

"Last time I felt like this I top-sliced and after an initial drop the share price motored over about 5 days."
So, the trick is to wait 5 days any time you feel like selling. ;-)

I bought more at 1400p this morning. Buyer's remorse kicked in as they dropped to 1370p soon after, but I'm feeling better now...

The reason I'm happy to buy such a highly rated stock is summed up in these words :

"However, it is notable that gin only accounts for 6% of the global premium spirits category. The dark spirits category, on the other hand, accounts for 60% of global premium spirits, ten times the size. Within the dark spirits category the same trends of premiumisation and mixabilty that are driving the rise of premium gin and tonic consumption are also emerging, with major premium dark spirits brands actively promoting simple long serves. New Fever-Tree products will be launched in 2017 to complement our existing dark spirit mixing range, reintroducing quality and choice to the trade and consumers of dark spirits. We believe that an exciting opportunity exists to work alongside the premium spirits brands to reinvigorate the dark spirits category, in much the same way we approached the gin category over ten years ago."

Edit: I see you've already highlighted the 'dark spirits' opportunity, APAD.

[apad] 21/3/2017 15:40

Bought it first back in 2014 when wife and friend's wife paid more for the tonic than the gin in the Old Hall hotel, Buxton, EI.
Looked at the background of the founders and the business model (no CAPEX!) and it became a conviction buy.
I've bought 25 times now and my average price is 367.9665988p. Top-sliced once - huge mistake, feedback in one week!
Hard to value on a PER basis because it is a brand, almost more than it is a company.
Also, it is easy to watch its success in this country. Lots of gins and one premium tonic. The US is different, but if their dark mixers are a success then it is light speed.
I'm happy to ride the story.
apad

[essentialinvestor] 21/3/2017 15:18

ADAP, FEVR, you must be near the eligibility criteria for Jersey
permanent residence at this stage, incredible longer term call.
Even gave you a mention on SHA.

Never held and tbh if i did, would have sold long long before now.

[essentialinvestor] 21/3/2017 14:15

ROR is fantastic company, however the current rating more than allows for
that imv.

[apad] 21/3/2017 14:05

Dumped the rest of ROR - when in doubt get out.

Transmogrified them into IGG.

Polishing the Portfolio :-)

Happy now.

apad

[apad] 21/3/2017 13:45

End of FEVR saga - deja vu all over again

Spent some ROR monies on a RWS top up and shoved the rest into BOO because I couldn't think what else to do with it.
Late April FY and lots to talk about.
Must be nuts buying more of my second largest holding - and no income to boot.

Had a quick look at the PrettyBoyQuicklyBackward board to cheer myself up for missing the FEVR low.
The church of Confirmation Bias is alive and well.
How folks can be so confident in their speculations when looking at a car crash of a share price is beyond me.

apad

[essentialinvestor] 21/3/2017 12:53

Hoped Wood would dip a little lower this morning.

[apad] 21/3/2017 09:40

It was FEVR who predicted 102m in Jan, red.

RWS looks to have bottomed at 325p.

apad

[redartbmud] 21/3/2017 08:11

APAD

Didn't you forecast Revenues of £102m?

RNS:
Premium carbonated mixers supplier Fever-Tree's revenues rose by 73% to £102.2m in the year to the end of December.

Mystic Meg rules ok?

red

[apad] 21/3/2017 08:11

Don't thinks so, red.

rns Jan accurate.

Last time I felt like this I top-sliced and after an initial drop the share price motored over about 5 days. Great divi increase.

Europe not brilliant either.

UK good.

apad

[redartbmud] 21/3/2017 08:00

Burst bubble?

red

[apad] 21/3/2017 07:54

FEVR

US at interims: 59% (46% constant currency)
US at FY: 55% (36% constant currency)

Unimpressive.

apad

[tudes100] 20/3/2017 22:43

APAD, suspect you're right on HTG in that sustained upward move in oil price will be needed for further momentum but its worth watching speed of recovery in US shale market imo. Speed of HTG turnaround will be determined by US drillers probably more so than any other UK listed oil service Co's.
www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
I suspect a decent amount of capital investment that was cancelled and deferred during the last 24 mths will have to be spent now to ensure that the pumps can keep producing.
Currently have a small HTG stake but will be looking to add over the next 6 months.

[hydrus] 20/3/2017 22:07

Sold out of one of my five picks today -SAT.Didn't like the delayed results announcement and once results did come out, whilst decent revenue growth the lack of profitability (behind broker expectations) and poor cash flow/balance sheet put me off. Growth by acquisition which could be a good strategy and they may do well but too risky now for me.

[redartbmud] 20/3/2017 21:42

EI

Yes I am becoming a dab hand at this trading lark.
What I have stated previously, I still believe. It will take time for the due process to come to a conclusion, so a quick tickle is not a bad option to take. I may well get another chance to dive in. The less than 2% movement could easily be repeated several times!

APAD
Best of luck tomorrow. You never know when Mr Market will catch you out with the reaction to trading updates etc.

Agreed on oil. The natural cycle is a downturn or softening for the present time. On that basis there is no need to rush.

Wynnstay tomorrow and a chance to ask why farmers have to sell milk to supermarkets at less than cost of production, meaning that Wyn is squeezed on profits.
Deflation rules ok!

Hey Ho.

red

[madmix] 20/3/2017 21:38

APAD,

I see from the FEVR board that you've already realised that "full year revenue is expected to be circa GBP102.2 million" from the January trading statement.

What I find interesting is how little growth is forecast by the 'tintins' for 2017. PBT is forecast to be £35m for 2016 and £37.2m for 2017.

6% growth in PBT this year seems extremely conservative, but this does mean a high likelihood of further "ahead of expectations" trading statements.

[apad] 20/3/2017 19:13

HTG
Cost cutting measures continued during the year and include:

o 24% reduction in headcount to 2,107 since 31 December 2015; and

o 3 manufacturing facilities and 10 distribution centres decommissioned during 2016.


I'm not convinced that there is anything in the market likely to drive oil prices up and so am not in any hurry.

apad

[apad] 20/3/2017 19:05

BOO on a high, about 18% up on the year.

FEVR: tintin's max. prediction is £102m turnover. I'm expecting £110m plus.

Maybe it's a two goat sacrifice?

apad

[essentialinvestor] 20/3/2017 18:09

red, you trader!, nicely done.

Took the afternoon off, a rareity for me ).


My instinct tells me that WG is worth at least watching medium term, lower would be lovely.

DLG, very pleased with that, HSTN, over the bloody moon.

[redartbmud] 20/3/2017 16:34

Took the profit in AMFW. After all, a trade is a trade, and a profit is a profit. The share price could be volatile.
Out tomorrow so I am bullet proof on that one. Sold 505.14p

red

[petersinthemarket] 20/3/2017 14:26

VLG must be one of the best threads on this site,
but as a matter of interest has anyone taken a look at the ''other'' VLG thread?

Venture Life Group Plc VLG
AIM All Share
MktCap £23m
Tiny div
Some cash

Has been loss making for some time but recently moved into profit.
Current share price around 69p but Panmure predicting 128p and CSchwab 142p.
Lovely bowl shaped chart for those who follow such things.
Chart rising nicely in recent weeks, but might just be a ''buy on the rumour''.
Results 23 March 2017.

Recent 6 March change of CFO to a man with wide appropriate experience.
DigLook predicting Rev yr end 31dec16 £14.3m, 31dec17 16.5m, 31dec18 18.3m.
January TU claimed they held around £2m in cash.

VLG describes itself as an international consumer self-care company focussed on developing, manufacturing and commercializing products for an aging population. They typically supply self administered drugs and cosmetic aplications through pharmacies.

Growth expected to be by acquisition and revenue.

I hold a modest initial stake - anything more will depend on results.
pete

[apad] 20/3/2017 13:51

ROR down to 0.5% of portfolio now.

First FEVR purchase was £1.69, m.

apad

[petersinthemarket] 20/3/2017 11:41

TSTL appears to have confirmed a break out. Can often be quite difficult to get through round number levels like 200. Very encouraging. pete