Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[redartbmud] 06/1/2017 07:53

For those in Bree, the latest comment.

Building materials supplier Breedon Aggregates (BREE) will buck the trend of slowing construction this year, predicts Berenberg.

Analyst Robert Chantry retained his ‘buy’ stance and lifted his target price from 80p to 85p. The shares edged 0.1p lower to 71.25p.

He said that Breedon delivered ‘impressive growth’ in 2016 against ‘tricky end-market conditions’, including Brexit and the impact of lower local authority spending.

‘Despite revenues nudging up only c.2% year-on-year by the first half of the year, growth and margins look to have improved over the second half with an upbeat trading statement delivered late in 2016,’ he said.

‘We continue to believe that Breedon is a differentiated long-term roll-up story in the UK construction sector and believe the potential for further progress to be made with the Hope Construction assets [bought last year] and the desire of management to continue building for the future could help mitigate any Brexit-driven slowdown in construction activity.’

red

[apad] 06/1/2017 07:03

V good article on Lithium in the FT.

Google: Lithium: the next speculative bubble? and you can read it.

apad

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 05/1/2017 22:01

Ho guyz.

Just been reading through some rns for fevr. Quite an incredible journey. Probably more to follow i'm sure.
To be honest Red i didnt do any research after i had allready seem it rise too much??..

Hopefully im towards to the beggining with 'skinny tan' ala IDP. But nothing will be clear until we get an update kr two. All gut instinct presently. Tomorrow i'll make my third purchase. Maybe i'm to desperate to get a meaningful multi bagger.

Back to FEVR. Forget the fashion for Gin. It does seem to be demand in for all sorts.

[pj 1] 05/1/2017 18:49

You did ask APAD!
TST one of my picks for 2017 had a profit warning today. Yes, 5 days and 3 trading days into the new year. Is that a record?

Perversely my main concern isn't the profit warning for 2016, but a (first for them) bad debt provision. It seems the new Chairman had not thrown all the dirty bath water out as I had hoped. :-//

Never mind, after 3 trading days into 2017 he is still 'comfortable' with 2017 market expectations.

Beam me up Scotty!!

[redartbmud] 05/1/2017 18:24

tlatsatt

Fevr is a growth story that has come a long way in a short time. There is little point in looking at hard numbers as they are already out of date as you view. I didn't take the plunge at a share price 50% below current quote.
They were doing a boxed package, in our local Sainsburys, that had small cans of Fevr tonic and minature bottles of gin. The lad looking after the shelves said that they went as soon as he refilled the space. That branch closed on 30 December. Intu don't like supermarkets in their complexes.

APAD
Don't get me wrong. I like Ror and Peter France. I am just concerned that short term they have headwinds and I applied a cautious approach which, to date, has bitten me in the bum.

red

[petersinthemarket] 05/1/2017 17:26

''removing flowers from your garden and leaving the weeds is the wrong strategy imo''

You have seen my garden then M, didn't realize you lived around here. pete

[apad] 05/1/2017 15:23

ROR does not raise concerns at my top level, red.
ROCE has dropped over the last few years.
FCF ROCE Quick
Yield Ratio
4.12% 41% 1.2
We have shared deeper information about ROR and are in broad agreement, although I am holding on.
Anyroadup, nothing is as bad as bloody GDWN!

tlst
FEVR is really about abroad now. The last rns pointed to excellent UK figures, but didn't mention foreign climes. I suspect/hope they are holding that back for an update towards the end of Jan.

apad

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 05/1/2017 15:01

Hi APAD
Re Fevert Tree. Last year i eard it mentioned quite a few times in th local but not for quite a whil... could be a summer thing but drinks do seem to have a whats 'in' at the moment to them. I think they become sort of fashionable for a while.
Just a heads up that the Gin interest may slow . I'm sure you considered it anyway but will ask about its popularity next time i'm the pub and report back.

All the best.

[redartbmud] 05/1/2017 14:50

APAD

No hard and fast number, but I am always interested in what percentage of the Balance Sheet is made up by intangibles. The higher that number the more I take heed.
As an example, the likes of Ror, that has been buying bolt on additions for a long time, need to be watched.
Their intangibles have jumped from £106.78m in 2011 to £340.64m in 2015. Their last purchase was at a much higher cost than those before - intangibles +£118m within the deal(s) in the year.
I know that they are heavily exposed to O&G, but when you run the other numbers, they are not so hot - hence my top slicing that ended up as being far too premature. Right decision, awful timing.
I could live with things whilst they were in an organic growth environment but once the cash in hand became borrowings I became far more cautious and limited my exposure to a more comfortable level.

I don't think that you could compare them to an AIM stock that say gobbled up a competitor and doubled intangibles, purely on the argument of size of the business. In that case, the growth weighting is greater in the thinking. Then again, I am only investing a small amount that I am prepared to write off if things go pear shaped. Obviously, I am not happy to do that, but I am buying in the expectation that the share price will grow significantly year on year - A la Fevr that I steadfastly ignored when you were championing the cause.

red

[apad] 05/1/2017 14:05

Is there a number (or something to look for) that triggers a warning about intangibles, red?
I too look at record history and try to read the annual report backwards. I understand that some numbers are more relevant to, say, capital intensive companies cf IT.
My numbers sit at the top of my spreadsheet to act as a red flag and for contemplation.

RSW share price seems to be benefitting from the low pound, but I'm still concerned about capital spend associated with additive manufacturing. Interims in Jan. but they are usually uninformative.

apad

[redartbmud] 05/1/2017 13:33

APAD

One size does not fit all. You cannot compare a Boo to something like SSE.
Investing depends on what you are looking to achieve.
Small cap stocks are usually considered to be growth businesses where year on year figures can be meaningless from a valuation perspective. The detailed information underlying the accounts can be limited as to history, and sometimes the quality can leave much to be desired.
The big boys operate on the global stage and are more influenced by macro fundamentals and fashion, as perceived by the tintins.
Then there are the ones in the middle.

Wherever possible, I look at the history over 5 - 10 years, balance sheet and P&L A/c to see trends and progression. Same with the share price, using Hargreaves Lansdown, showing % improvement.
On the balance sheet, I look at gearing and debt, with attention to the cost of servicing. Intangibles always worries me. Buying a bag of nails, then capitalizing the intangibles isn't too clever for the long term. At some point it can be a write off and may hamper future financing as the quality of hard assets isn't there.
Free cash flow it important. You need to cover dividends and interest plus something left to invest in the business. I like dividend cover around 2x if possible.
Tech companies can require sizeable R&D budgets year on year, to keep up with or ahead of the competition.

That said, I look at the PE, PEG, Yield, Dividend Cover and Growth YOY, Gearing, ROCE (Variable within industry sectors), NAV.
I am also very interested in the quality of management and the business model.


Just a few ramblings.

red

[apad] 05/1/2017 13:02

Big, fierce animals either attack or run away.

Go though and do likewise.

apad

[modform] 05/1/2017 12:57

Pete, removing flowers from your garden and leaving the weeds is the wrong strategy imo

[modform] 05/1/2017 12:55

Pete, if a trade goes wrong you get out quick beside FFWD is an investment vehicle with a nav of 7p and share price of 14p, so you're paying twice as much for a bunch of tintins to do your work.

[petersinthemarket] 05/1/2017 12:50

Aaaaaahhhhh, yes M, the one that got away; there's always one isn't there?
But I do understand your point.
Wait a minute, aren't I sitting tight on FFWD and currently down 30%.
Is that supposed to happen?
Someone, Pls pass me a copy of the FT for January 2018!
Best of luck for this year, Rgds, pete

[modform] 05/1/2017 12:35

Jane, A quote from a legendary investor Jesse Livermore IT WAS NEVER MY THINKING THAT MADE THE BIG MONEY FOR ME. IT WAS ALWAYS MY SITTING. GOT THAT? MY SITTING TIGHT...... Pet, had you sat tight with SPE, you would have made 50% more.

[petersinthemarket] 05/1/2017 12:18

I forgot to mention, I also pay great heed to the scuttlebut. pete

[petersinthemarket] 05/1/2017 12:16

I bet I can beat you on one trait A, I am an even worse accountant. I know perfectly well that any half decent accountant can hide from me the very bit I need to know, so I stopped looking a long time ago. I prefer my charts to fundamentals.
FWIW the first thing to alert my interest is a few months of fairly clean staircase chart. I look for a low peg, several years of rising rev and profit, positive cash flow and low debt levels. All stats off other website's published tables. Instinct is also a factor of course and being a normal perverse human I occasionally ignore everything and give it a go anyway. Unfortunately, as I am not up there with Mr Buffet, you can see that my approach is no better than anyone elses. GL, pete

[janeann] 05/1/2017 09:46

Blue Prism (AIM: PRSM), a global leader in Robotic Process Automation ("RPA"), is pleased to announce that its partnership with Accenture (NYSE: ACN) has to date resulted in the provision of RPA solutions to over 40 organisations. These organisations, which cover a number of industries, are using RPA to automate a wide range of business processes for reduced costs, improved compliance and increased productivity.

The alliance combines Accenture's global reach and cross industry expertise with Blue Prism's RPA software robots to provide the next generation of the "digital workforce." As part of this, Accenture plans to certify more than 600 professionals on Blue Prism technology and implementation to provide critical advice and guidance to companies navigating a complex automation landscape.

lesson to self ; run the winners !

[redartbmud] 04/1/2017 22:19

Haywards

Thanks, it was only ever going to be a day trade, but it didn't happen anyway.

red

[haywards26] 04/1/2017 21:17

Next is getting like M&S I feel. Same old clothes, pricey for what it is. Next used to also be a pig to order online with e.g. Needing to be a paid catalogue member.

I personally would not touch NEXT

[redartbmud] 04/1/2017 21:13

tlatsatt

I just thought that there might be a cheeky 4-5% day trade and, of course, there was if you were nimble enough. I was in and out, so I couldn't screen watch. On that basis it was a no.

red

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 04/1/2017 20:57

Hi Red

Regards next. My wife says there are three stores in our town now. Have they reached total capacity or is there room for further growth?

For whats worth ive always thougt next gear to be of reasonable quality and in fashion but you must take my idea of fashion with a large pinch of salt.

Cheers