Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[apad] 07/10/2016 15:51

You make a judgement and take a position, L.
Continue to research the business, not the balance sheet.
Bail out if you've made a mistake or the story changes.
No emotion, no forward guesses, no recriminations.
Let the research shape the portfolio - no ideal 'balanced' portfolios.

Top five:
FEVR
BOO
ABC
RSW
TRCS

Current capital gains:
232%
245%
87%
181%
430%

[lauders] 07/10/2016 15:23

You must be rather "confident" then APAD. After 10 years working at it I would hope they are rather confident too and they need to be or else BVXP will take a hit no doubt. Never selling and receiving those dividends sounds nice!

[apad] 07/10/2016 15:20

£8.95 a trade, L.
Bought 21 times so far, prices ranging from 947 to 1152.
Trades inside the spread, but larger orders attract premium prices.
I'm expecting Siemens news to drive the price before the hoped for 2017 revenue stream.
If BVXP is successful I don't expect to ever sell. If not it will be dreadfully difficult to exit.
apad

[lauders] 07/10/2016 15:01

Interested in BVXP but the spread is awful! Don't you lose trading frequently as you do APAD? Of course you will not lose in the end if your exit price is significantly higher than now, but I think you get the gist of my query. Dividends will help in the long run just so long as all goes to plan with the replacement revenue source hoped for in 2017,

[apad] 07/10/2016 13:31

dacian,
QP. Don't be reassured by Slater?

H,
My style is just to let people know what I am doing.
I have never been a fan of anything, ever.
Even as a schoolboy.
My favourite response to "Don't you know who I am" is "Don't worry, dear, the nurse will be along in a minute and she'll let you know."

apad

[haywards26] 07/10/2016 13:20

You are a BVXP fan APAD!! I will be looking at them over the coming days.

I took some RDSB off the table today, for a 55% capital gain plus divi's, so I now have cash without a home currently. I suspect over the coming weeks/months there shall be a market wobble and I will be able to pick RDSB up again for below £18.

[apad] 07/10/2016 13:13

Bought more BVXP in daughter's ISA.
apad

[apad] 07/10/2016 09:48

RSW 13 Oct agm/rns date.

I don't understand the relentless share price increase.

Commiserations on QP. dacian.

I'm not so sure about oil's ability to rebound now that US shale is another equilibrium player.

I'd like to increase rdsb, but the £ has killed that ambition.

apad

[apad] 07/10/2016 08:06

Increased BVXP at 1150 this morning.
apad

[redartbmud] 07/10/2016 07:58

APAD

Thanks for the comment on Goodwin. I would say that it is spot on.

red

[cougar99] 07/10/2016 05:43

IMF on Mar 31st 2017: “Britain will ,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ??? ”.

[apad] 07/10/2016 04:05

IMF on June 18th: “Brexit will trigger UK recession”

IMF on Sept 4th: “Britain will be fastest growing G7 economy this year”.

[apad] 07/10/2016 03:17

Beddard on GDWN:

Watch: Goodwin

Goodwin (GDWN) is busy diversifying, as revenues from the manufacture of valves used to control the flow of oil in pipelines, tankers and refineries dry up.

The company's performance was not impressive in comparison to previous years, when oil prices were high and driving investment in infrastructure by oil companies, but Goodwin remained profitable in the year ending April 2016.

We now know what Goodwin looks like when orders for its patented valves are fewer and won on tighter margins. Revenue has fallen 3% to its lowest since 2012, and profit is down 36%.

Goodwin doesn't predict an upturn in the oil industry; instead it plans to speed up diversificationThe company's borrowings are rising too, as it invests and extends more credit to customers. Return on capital was 10%, half the average since 2007.

Revenue from oil companies and related industries has shrunk from about 45% two years ago to 38.5% in 2016.

Out of necessity, Goodwin International, the casting and machining business that makes valves, is seeking new business in the power, defence and construction industries, while the company is expanding its refractory engineering division, which supplies powders and moulds for casting jewellery and tyres, and minerals for heat-resisting applications including fire extinguishers, insulation and paint.

In its annual report Goodwin does not predict an upturn in the oil industry; instead, it is planning to speed up its diversification.

A share price of £21.50 values the enterprise at £187 million or 18 times adjusted profit. The earnings yield is 6%. If profitability returns to former levels, the valuation is more compelling.

Assuming an average return on capital of 20%, the earnings yield is 11%.

[apad] 06/10/2016 15:31

Hi red.
I agree with that statement. I was surprised at how O&G dependent they were (my sloppy research) and they should be better diversified (as I thought they were) after the cycle turns.

Nevertheless, comparing them with RSW's management I am disillusioned and will be looking to reduce on their strength and my target's weakness. I think there are better opportunities one year ahead, say.
Choosing from my own holdings (PRV/AMS, say).
Also, they are parsimonious with news and and I tend to lose interest.

apad

[redartbmud] 06/10/2016 14:49

APAD

I agree about the Ltip. It is supposed to incentivise the executives but, in my day, all the incentive that you needed to do your job was the fact that you were in employment and you wanted to do your best.
£40 was in the heady days of growth, growth and more growth. Oil $100+ per barrel and up to $147. Orders falling in your lap and high demand meant high selling prices and margins. Not there anymore.
I do believe that they will come out stronger but we have 2 years or more before world economic uncertainty starts to dissipate.

Just MHO.

red

[modform] 06/10/2016 14:09

Apad, SRT directors option scheme last month was the signal to get out

[apad] 06/10/2016 13:29

Mmmmm...
Nevertheless, they are down from £40 in 2014, so now is the time to start a ltip.
Thanks for the feedback, red.
apad

[redartbmud] 06/10/2016 13:14

dacian

Thanks.

The next generation appear to me to be very bright and, of course, they buy into the culture of the business.
The apprenticeship scheme appears to be paying off as well.

red

[redartbmud] 06/10/2016 09:25

dacian

AGM went as expected.
The O&G market remains tough, but they are working hard to diversify into new areas that will replace the lost revenue. This takes time to achieve but encouraging signs are beginning to emerge. They don't see any improvement in O&G for the next couple of years.
They have developed and patented new isolation or control valve for the gas market that is due to be launched in November. They believe it to be superior to the competition and expect to take a share of that market as a result.
The investment in machining calacity is an area that should add to turnover in due course.
The targeted customers are at the top end of the quality spec. and it therefore takes a long time to dislodge existing suppliers.
The chairman spent a long time explaining the new LTIP and the reasons for it's implementation. The targets are very tough and should give significant shareholder returns if thet are met and the director benefits are triggered.
A significant percentage of sales are made to the rest of the world, excluding Europe. That shields them from Brexit, to some degree.
This company is a slow burner. They take a long term view on all that they do. The aim is quality that sells.

red

[apad] 06/10/2016 08:31

www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBGkhPx529g

[apad] 06/10/2016 08:24

Decided to stick with PTSG. My sort of acquisition company. Under the shadow of Paul Scott's criticism. Plenty of risk, but knowledgeable management and a clearly visible theme.
I could have wished to have bought it later :-)
apad