Velocys Share Discussion Threads

[fluky] 07/1/2017 12:34

gac14: I'm glad to be at your side for a change...Please comment on the 3 other scenarios I suggested.

[gac141] 07/1/2017 08:38

I'm with fluky on this one...I expected the ENVIA plant to be up and pre running by Christmas hence my price target last time. I hope to see significant improvement in the share price going through this year subject to these alliances. If they are all good ones and Red Rock comes through together with ENVIA; I hope for at least 100p but I am always viewing through Rose tinted glasses so my price is 140p

[haydock] 06/1/2017 18:01

Good day EJ.
Very pleased to see, you here, not on Blur !
Interested to see your predictions for the future.
I think that the massive patent Library here has been under used & could be of future interest.

If you have time see Post 3330 for the way it could develop under the new plan.
Cheers Hay.

[fern5] 06/1/2017 17:57

I thought it might have a little bit of a jot.

[visionon] 06/1/2017 17:42

Is it perhaps fluky getting an early start on pushing the share price up to his 125p xmas prediction ?

Or is it the CEO trying to push the share price back to the 40p it stood at when he was appointed 12mths ago ? perhaps his bonus is linked to the share price not going down by more than 5%...;)

gac141 - no prediction from you yet. are you still reeling from fluky's bullishness perhaps ? you wanted to bid 4 clubs didn't you...5 no trumps maybe ?

so far we have:

fluky 125p
fern5 66p
vision 50p

[gac141] 06/1/2017 16:41

Waste Management is a fortune 250 company..I don't think VLS share movement will have a jot of impact on them.

[meijiman] 06/1/2017 15:56

Why is it telling? -don't follow the logic of that point.

[fern5] 06/1/2017 15:32

Interesting Waste Management share price has hardly budged in comparison to VLS. That is telling

[sheep_herder] 06/1/2017 15:15

Has one of the reactors sprung a news leak?

[brucie5] 06/1/2017 14:52

Yes, peach of a chart, but how far do you trust the business plan?

I hold.

[gac141] 06/1/2017 14:27

Perhaps your wish will be granted

[fern5] 04/1/2017 17:50

Relatively speaking, I think the probability attached to RA will be higher as compared to any other 'partner'.

I am no expert in these matters so please DYOR.

[fluky] 04/1/2017 16:33

Good point. Let's add scenario #4: RA takes VLS private and buys out the other shareholders at 55p - probability 30%. Probability of scenario #2 goes down to 50%.
Fern5: what do you think?

[fern5] 04/1/2017 16:00

would RA accept 55p fluky?

[fluky] 04/1/2017 15:49

Velocys cannot survive this year without a cash injection. There are a few scenarios to get to year's end:
1. Another raise at approx 50p - probability: 5% - Will run into shareholders opposition because last round was at 225p unless VLS could grant them a deal.
2. An acquisition by a strategic partner - probability: 80% - would mean that the VLS shares are converted into cash and/or shares of the acquirer
3. VLS goes out of business - probability: 15%
If VLS stays in business I'll go for 125p at Christmas 2017. I'll go for zero in the other cases. In the latter case, the shareholders will have cash or shares equivalent to 55p VLS share price. I discard the "going out of business" scenario.
Thoughts?

[visionon] 04/1/2017 14:22

Thanks fern5. in the book. a good shout 66p I think.

6th Jan is anniversary of CEO appointment.

6.1.16 share price was 40p. now 37p

31.12.16 £34.74m cash
6.1.17 £10-12m cash ? (allowing for balance of loan to hand over this quarter)

Strategic review was delayed by unsuccessful attempt to buy some GTL assets, which also incurred costs. And ENVIA seemingly late (based on original project timetable).

I hope the board won't be thinking about bonuses for themselves...we are still reeling from the disproportionate ones paid out a few years back.

3 brokers now on 107-114p range (presumably for 12mths). Let's see if we can do better in the xmas 2017 stakes.

[gac141] 03/1/2017 15:23

Well one thing we are probably all agreed on is that News-flow from Velocys is what will move the share price

[fern5] 03/1/2017 15:06

I think solid partnerships and successful commencement of the operational running of ENVIA will act as very positive boosts of the share price I'll go for 66p by Christmas 2017.

[visionon] 03/1/2017 13:00

Fern5. I too think the partners update will be some months away. The short-term news should be ENVIA start-up and I think partners would want to see that running for at least 3mths (and preferably 6mths) before putting their names to any PR.

Also repayment of the loan would require re-financing of the plant. That might not happen for 12mths (a funder would surely want to see data) and I interpret from the accounts that the interest is rolled up and paid at 31.12.17 but with the option to delay that to 31.12.18. So money may start getting tight in 2017 - see below.

I'm going to plump for 50p by xmas 2017. That would hopefully allow also for dilution via any placing that might be required this year to keep VLS sustainable while they negotiate these strategic partnerships. 50p is still 40% plus on current share price so I would be quite happy as a LTH, albeit I would love to see the brokers forecasts proven in 2017.

[gac141] 03/1/2017 11:54

Velocys Reiterated As Outperform By Macquarie Research

In an analyst rating update on Tuesday shares of Velocys (LON:VLS) had their rating reiterated by analysts at Macquarie Research.

The broker said it has now set a ‘Outperform217; rating on shares of Velocys with a price target of 100. The price target according to the broker shows a possible increase of 172.76% from the current stock price of 36.66.

[fern5] 03/1/2017 11:27

Happy new year gac. I'm hoping to get an update on ENVIA asap.

updates on strategic partners would also be welcome. Just a hunch however that it may be a while before we get an update on partners.

[gac141] 03/1/2017 11:16

Happy New Year all - Looking forward to updates pretty soon on our strategic partners.