Velocys Share Discussion Threads

[fluky] 28/9/2016 23:51

And the point is...

[gac141] 28/9/2016 22:43

Velocys have made reference on numerous occasions to an NOC which is progressing to FID.

Even this week it was mentioned again... so I thought it merited more research and below is what I eventually came up with.. Big stuff.. and definitely underlines the share price !!!





So there you have it....

[sheep_herder] 28/9/2016 08:39

Maybe a photo of the moon on a stick to remind us how nuts we are. ;-)

[visionon] 28/9/2016 07:58

gac I would 2nd that. the page takes longer to open with the photos and more graphs would be helpful.

[supernumerary] 27/9/2016 19:01

gac - I don't suppose you could add the usual daily and monthly graphs to the header could you? If they were to replace the (not very interesting, even the first time) photos that would be even better ;¬)

[haydock] 27/9/2016 16:50

16:39 - 27/09
Buy 76743 30.00p £23,022.90

16:39 - 27/09
Buy 40000 30.00p £12,000.00

[beeezzz] 27/9/2016 11:32

Broker reduces price target from 110 to 95p

[alamaison5] 27/9/2016 06:05

Looking at the latest buying, 197,000 shares bought at 16:36p; I am confident enough to say that our seller is gone.
So let rise from today toooooo 46.33p, lol
Enjoy the fun.

[bikwik] 27/9/2016 01:06

I have posted a chart on my thread BIKWIK and Technical Analysis.

[visionon] 26/9/2016 20:03

46.33p alamaison5 - stewards apology, mix-up with the list for 3.45 at Kempton. you are in the race and running a comfortable 3rd.

[visionon] 26/9/2016 18:44

I was equally underwhelmed. They threw a lot of money (for a company of VLS size) speculatively at the Westlake opportunity and did no work on the strategic review in the meantime. Presumably it must of been an unmissable deal to warrant that.

I wonder if the strategic review might conclude that VLS can only grow under the wing of a larger company, perhaps an oil+gas major looking ahead and wanting to diversify in BTL and WTL. The problem was highlighted at the AGM - VLS kit is only 5-6% of total plant cost, so they will always be at the whim of project developers and funders. Under a big parent and with a budget to to direct schemes they could push on much quicker. And todays RNS indicates that their skill base is extending beyond just the FT part of the puzzle.

Cash will surely be needed in 2017 even if they do the red rock deal, because they need to sell a lot of modules to fund cash burn of £14m-£15m (£7m indicated for H2). That cash raise could be a lot more difficult than the last because these projects take so long and are so uncertain i.e. investors will question whether VLS can get market penetration. Perhaps a strategic investor could be an O+G sector major dipping their toe.

Once ENVIA is running a strategic investor might be tempted. And and M&A £100m-£200m range would hardly be a massive outlay for an O+G sector major. Indiestu's xmas share price shout would equate to roughly £100m.

Anyway, now that the interims are out I'm declaring the xmas entry list closed. good luck all !

Runners and riders are:

Indiestu 75p
Fern5 60p
gac141 50p
vision 49p
Musard 40p
Fluky 35p

Fluky, easily identified by drab grey silks, jumped the interims fence well and has a comfortable early lead - albeit taking a very safe line on the inside rail. gac141 is mid-pack easily identifiable by the rose tinted goggles, and Indiestu having strayed to the outside rail in search of firmer ground has been momentarily overtaken by the St John's ambulance ;) to be continued after the next RNS.

[fluky] 26/9/2016 17:21

Except for the fact that progress is made at the ENVIA plant, there is not much uplifting news.
One new element: regarding the catalyst lease. "Revenue from reactor sales to ENVIA was recognised in 2015 and revenue from the lease of catalyst to ENVIA will be recognised once the plant is operational." This should spread the revenue more evenly over time, as compared to a biannual purchase.
Finally, we know now much the Westlake GTL adventure costs: $3.1M. But no reason why Velocys embarked on this path. It delayed the start of the strategy review and wasted a lot of cash.
Lastly, the projected cash outflow of the year will be £20.6. This leave about £10M for 2017 if ENVIA draws down the $9M loan completely. This means that the company will need a cash injection before the end of 2017. I hope it will be from a strategic investor.

[gac141] 26/9/2016 13:11

I was happy with the results and more importantly with most of the commentary.

I and the markets are waiting for one of these close deals to get done. My money is on Red Rock.. The US major player has gone on for an awfully long time and progress has been painfully slow. Central Asia has some promise and could happen quite quickly.

I think David has done a pretty good job all in all. Still waiting for this review so that must head it was towards the waste to liquid route certainly in the near term.

I am happy to keep my investment and any of the above happening will give me my Christmas target easily.

[alamaison5] 26/9/2016 12:50

Yep, this is the trigger. Bid up, few sales but then again the bid goes up, lol
As from today; Enjoy the rise.

[sheep_herder] 26/9/2016 11:16

Nice detailed update today. Looks good for the future to me.

[indiestu] 24/9/2016 11:28

75p. Sale price.

[fern5] 24/9/2016 09:51

Absolutely!

[sheep_herder] 24/9/2016 09:32

alamaison5 - pun detector on the blink today? :-)

[alamaison5] 24/9/2016 08:24

What would be the catalyst then Mr Fren5? I am listening.

[fern5] 24/9/2016 06:30

But why? All the share price needs is a little catalyst and it'll fly!!

[alamaison5] 24/9/2016 05:28

Mine would be 46.33p. I have added up all of your quotes and divided them by 3.
Simple math but the more accurate.
I left FERN5 on the side...No offense...

[visionon] 23/9/2016 15:45

Noted Fern5 and Fluky. in the book. going is soft to firm and 13 furlongs till xmas

Broker targets are usually 12mths so they can't enter the xmas competition. So there ! Unless of course they wish to put out xmas special targets. ;)

If you take the average of Fluky/gac - a yin/yang combo - then 42.5p might be a good tail to pin the donkey on, so to speak. Anyone ?

I think a deadline for forecasts should be tuesday 27th close in case VLS pop out interims on the 28th with something unexpected.