Velocys Share Discussion Threads

[beeezzz] 23/9/2016 15:24

Speculative....you can say that about most AIM stocks, more like a pure gamble, roulette give better odds.

[fluky] 23/9/2016 13:30

SH: regarding the small-scale GTL competition:
INFRA Technology is constructing a 100 bpd GTL demo plant in Texas - all modules in place - finishing up mechanical construction - Start-up: 1Q17.
Juniper GTL is finishing construction of their 1100 bpd plant in Louisiana - well funded now after emerging from bankruptcy - Start-up 2H17.
So, there are 3 demo plants with competing technology nearing completion. Unfortunately, the demand side is weak as long as the oil price remains under $70.
Lastly, my guess: 35 at Christmas.

[beeezzz] 23/9/2016 12:50

12EMA has crossed the 26, maybe higher share price ..nothing is guaranteed..

[goodgrief] 23/9/2016 12:49

If wasn't for the fact that the share price is already on its knees, I'd usually say 'guess the share price competitions' were the kiss of death!!

[fern5] 23/9/2016 12:25

My name in the hat please at 60p.

[visionon] 23/9/2016 12:18

alamaison join the xmas competition - unless of course you are just trading around the results.

gac141 50p
vision 49p
Musard 40p
Fluky - being shy at present

The prize is a rolled up copy of the directors remuneration report FY2016 to wave in a fencing like manner at the chairman come next AGM ;)

[alamaison] 23/9/2016 12:10

In with you chaps. Research as brought me here. Great prospect and money should start flowing sooner rather than later.
Lots of cash at year end of £37.7.
Revenue of £2.0 million (FY 2014: £1.7 million before exceptional items)

[sheep_herder] 23/9/2016 10:59

So this Envia plant at Oklahoma - could it really be transformational? I.E. does the fact that they'll have a working plant suddenly mean that everyone watching on the sidelines jumps in?

How many other companies are out there today with small scale GTL plants?

[gac141] 23/9/2016 10:13

Velocys PLC (LON:VLS)‘s stock had its “buy” rating reiterated by investment analysts at Numis Securities Ltd in a research report issued to clients and investors on Wednesday. They currently have a GBX 114 ($1.49) price objective on the stock. Numis Securities Ltd’s price target suggests a potential upside of 283.19% from the company’s current price

What do they know???

[musarddjm] 23/9/2016 10:03

I'll take 40p

[fluky] 22/9/2016 21:00

Before year end is optimistic, January is more realistic.

[gac141] 22/9/2016 19:38

I am expecting the plant to be up and running this year.

[sheep_herder] 22/9/2016 18:52

So any idea on how long the rest of the commissioning process will take? From the wording of the loan agreement and the update, they expect the drawdown of the loan to start in 4Q16 and the final payment taken in 1Q17. Does that imply that the plant will be fully operational by 2Q17? From then the Velocys team can move onto other projects?

[gac141] 22/9/2016 17:49

The .7m I think is for the employees that moved over from the demonstration plant in Ohio to East Oak.

[fluky] 22/9/2016 17:26

Thanks, SH.

[sheep_herder] 22/9/2016 17:00

Fees for the commissioning I assume. It's in the full year results as an extra 0.7m for the current year.

Edit - sorry, it was in the business update:

The Velocys subcontract with Ventech for operations, commissioning and start-up planning and execution and the secondment agreement with ENVIA will generate a total of over $0.7 million of revenue for the Company in the current financial year.

[fluky] 22/9/2016 16:56

SH: It is not a question of to like or not, it was a must do. Could you clarify the extra income of 700K?

[visionon] 22/9/2016 16:35

fluky shall we put you down for 27p then ? ;)

[sheep_herder] 22/9/2016 16:31

The wording in the full year results implies that:
- they get a bigger equity stake in the JV
- they get a 10% coupon on their loan
- they get extra income of 700K during 2016
- the loan can be repaid quickly after commissioning.

They also push the project through commissioning and therefore prove the whole concept faster. What's not to like?

[fluky] 22/9/2016 16:27

Visionon: Guess3: the JV partners were fed up with the overruns in budget and time and did not want to pitch in anymore. Since this demo plant is indeed a make or break situation for Velocys, they had no choice of putting up the precious cash.
There was no estimate of the start-up in the press release. This might be mentioned in the upcoming interims.
I also expect that the Westlake GTL (ad)venture will be mentioned. I posted a couple of times on the subject but nobody seems to be interested to know why Velocys wanted to buy the Juniper GTL assets earlier this year and why they are still fighting in court on this issue.

[sheep_herder] 22/9/2016 15:59

New to this share but can't the reasoning be as simple that this is a make or break deal for VLS? By loaning the funds and taking over the commissioning they can push the project to completion faster than an inexperienced company like Envia. In the interview he comments multiple times about the strength of the team and the quality of the processes and fault finding procedures they've put in place. I'm assuming that they have all the experience here and could see the benefit of stepping in.

[visionon] 22/9/2016 15:55

fluky I share your wondering about the loan to complete ENVIA. The Brr interview contained the phrase "ENVIA needed extra funding". Why ?

Guess 1 (glass half empty)- the original JV agreement had a clause concerning the price of natural gas (as the plant is consented and designed to take both landfill and mains gas) and that with a rise in gas prices it triggered the requirement for more funding to make the model work. Why the other partners weren't prepared to chip in is anyone's guess...

Guess 2 (glass half full) - the partnership had always intended to get some construction bridging finance and VLS felt that it was worth investing shareholders funds to have a greater influence and hopefully further limit risk to VLS technology (which is only a small part of the whole plant). Which in effect is what I think Pummell is saying.

The loan now needs to be paid back. If the plant works then hopefully they will get some debt/equity funding. If not then we long-suffering shareholders will be getting 9% on that money rather than 20%+ which one would expect in a higher risk share. perhaps the board would like to take their remuneration in shares in the meantime ?

Pummel says that they are convinced that the technology works and will prove it shortly. My guess is that they will prove it within the next month and certainly before December. In time for the interims I doubt, but it would be preferable, otherwise the interims will likely be very backward-looking...

Interesting that Pummell says that landfill gas to liquids is a "huge attraction to us as a company" and that "we have a strategic view about where we need to go in this sector". that suggests that the famed "strategic review" might be close to completion.

gac141 I see that you have thrown down the gauntlet at 50p. Shall we have a xmas share price competition ?

Gac141 50p
Visionon 49p (I wanted 50p but it was taken)

what says you fluky ? will you consult with gac141 and then disagree ? ;)

[meijiman] 22/9/2016 15:54

I hope so -I have a few but I guess I've thrown in the towel here .......

[gac141] 22/9/2016 15:20

Meijiman I see every reason for the share price to rise. I'll have a sportsman's bet that we will be 50p plus by Christmas.

[meijiman] 22/9/2016 14:57

I can't see any reason why this share price won't be 30p in a years time. Hopefully not but this company needs to seriously up its game.