|As night follows day up AM down PM why would anyone buy in the morning|
|We're approaching the bottom of the trend channel, this is either a good entry point or are we going to see a reversal?|
|fhmktg-HBM have said the same, a lot is riding on the Advair generic.|
|The group is forecast to report pre-tax profits of £15m for 2016, rising to £47m for 2017, and £93m for 2018.
Are these broker-based forecasts, or fools own? The point being that 2016 ints showed Vec made a pre-tax loss of £22.4m (18.6 post tax, thanks to refund) for the six months to Sept.
We will know in March the 2016 finals, made up from 9 months trading, but the question is will favourable forex, plus of course steadily growing demand for existing range (but nothing new) be enough to change this pre-tax loss into a pre-tax profit for 2016 of £15m? It's a big turnaround.
Can only add it would be nice, but surprising, if they could do so.|
|Thanks!The 'advair' announcement could and should light the blue touch paper.|
|A nice article from the fools at Motley:However, growth-focused investors will tell you that over the years the pharmaceuticals sector has also been home to some spectacular growth plays, with previously unheard of companies like Hikma Pharmaceuticals and Shire plc finding their way into the blue-chip index on the back of rapid sales and earnings growth. Consequently, the share price of both these firms has tripled within the last five years.But don't worry, while both Hikma and Shire continue to offer attractions for growth seekers, there are other smaller and often overlooked firms that I believe could have similar growth potential in the coming years. One such firm is FTSE 250-listed Vectura Group (LSE: VEC). The Chippenham-based business is an industry leader specialsing in inhaled therapies for the treatment of respiratory diseases, with last reported revenues of £72m and a market value just shy of £1bn.Step-changeIn June last year Vectura completed its merger with rival SkyePharma, and consequently decided to move its year-end-date from 31 March to 31 December, leaving a shortened post-merger year of just nine months. Full-year results for the year ending 31 December aren't due until March, but in a pre-close trading update last week the company said it has made significant business development progress following on from the step-change in financial performance announced in its interim results in November.During the first six months of the shortened year Vectura boasted a massive 183% rise in revenue to £73.9m, compared to the same period a year earlier, helped in no small part by the £441m merger with SkyePharma. The group continues to see sustained momentum in recurring revenues from recently launched inhaled products, and now owns or is partered with seven assets that are currently in Phase III development or under regulatory review.Strong start to 2017Vectura starts 2017 in a very strong position, with significant progress made with the pipeline and sustained growth in recurring revenues driven by seven recently launched inhaled products. Sales have risen sharply in recent years, and the City expects revenues to double by 2019. The group is forecast to report pre-tax profits of £15m for 2016, rising to £47m for 2017, and £93m for 2018.The valuation isn't too demanding either, with the P/E ratio dropping to just 11 by 2019 after anticipated earnings growth of 69% and 54% for the next two years. I believe the current P/E rating significantly undervalues the company given its longer-term growth appeal. If all goes well, investors willing to take on a higher level of risk could be sitting on terrific gains by the end of the year.|
|HBM took quite a large cash split in the takeover which reduced holding vec they have not sold any since as of there last quarter reporting|
|As of a June 2016 RNS... Healthcare Investments held 70,274,572 VEC shares (10.46%) Now they hold 67,698,836 (9.9855%)I maybe wrong but think they also had a holding in VEC in addition to being very large in SKP prior to the merger.... it's not that much actually gone missing, just less than 3 million.... but there does seem there is unaccounted for discrepancy between last June and this recent RNS.|
|Maybe this HBM tack is a bit of a red herring. Unless I can't recall a previous offload RNS we're only talking about 160K shares here. Hardly troubling.|
|Luffness-that's the % I thought HBM had in SKP which suggests they've sold a heck of a lot of shares in VEC. I don't suppose we'll ever know whether it was some sort of re-balancing of their investment portfolio or a reflection of their view of the prospects of VEC.|
|luffness - yep... and they got 3 times as many VEC shares!|
|Healthcare Investments - holding in VEC came courtesy of their large stake in SKP was just below 30% i seem to recall|
|Hopefully this is the overhang I would like to see the £2 being the next stop on the journey Gla|
|Dontay.. Morestan Nominees Ltd A/C, ie Morgan Stanley hold the 70+ million and HBM a fraction of that holding, and slightly less now.|
|Carpadium... thanks for that, your list of majors is what I had. I have to stress that the info did come from a poster on another site so I cannot vouch for its authenticity, but it does appear to be genuine.Healthcare Investments, who are a Cayman Island fund (HBM Partners (Cayman) Ltd., Cayman Island) mentioned in the listing as holding over 70 million has... as per today's RNS just sold a few.... but I notice they are now 'only' holding between 67-68 million. So that's one fund that seems to have been slowly disposing of a few million without it being overly noticeable. Let's hope they stop soon!|
|Dontay.. the only listing of VEC major shareholders I can find doesn't list Black Rock or Massachusetts Mutual, as such, whilst Aviva looks almost correct. But I go along with big boys' weighting adjustments and we have no choice but to sit the wait out until done. They go with 'sentiment towards pharma sector' and rarely put faith in companies' potential positive news, until it happens. More or less polar opposite to PI's!
Morgan Stanley Investment Management Ltd. 71,832,134 10.6%
HBM Partners AG 70,274,572 10.4%
Invesco Asset Management Ltd. 65,867,848 9.72%
Baillie Gifford & Co. 27,479,346 4.06%
Legal & General Investment Management Ltd. 26,296,618 3.88%
OppenheimerFunds, Inc. 25,980,000 3.83%
Aviva Investors Global Services Ltd. 24,597,102 3.63%
AXA Investment Managers UK Ltd. 21,769,423 3.21%
Franklin Advisers, Inc. 18,928,262 2.79%
Threadneedle Asset Management Ltd. 16,377,000 2.42%|
|Richtea... hopefully lots more than that during 2017 :) I'm thinking more of a quick but more modest jump to around 180p by end of March once any overhangs (IF... there are any!!!) have been sorted. IMO there are no reasons why the share price shouldn't be coming somewhere close to at least the lower end of the target prices if it wasn't for some overhangs pulling it back. Numis 252, N+1 Singer 202, Investec 220, Peel Hunt 200, J P Morgan 240, Stifel 225. More realistic and what should be in reach IMO are: RBC Capital Markets on 190 and Cantor Fitzgerald on 160p. I'll settle for in-between those two at the mo!|
|This is going to £2 - end of|
|Thanks to maybemaybenot who posted on ISE.According to Bloomberg... holders BlackRock have been selling. They filed last week that they have sold just over 2.2 million... they still hold over 30 million, equating to 4.5% of the company approx. Other sellers, reported on the 24/12/16Massachusetts Mutual... sold 1.850,000 they now hold 24 millionAviva sold 1.6 million they now own 23 million.Today's RNS being released was due to the 10% threshold being crossed, whereas other sales may not have triggered one.I think it's possible these sales are simply funds who held both companies readjusting, possibly still slowly top slicing after the merger. It's also that 'readjusting' time of the year! For every seller there is a buyer... but the cumulative effect of having these overhangs in the background means the share price will keep getting knocked back until weighting balances are restored. Only my opinion.|
|Diesel, we need some good news, there has been a distinct shortage of it since the merger. We've had bad news such as litigation and the failed COPD trial and disappointing news such as delayed marketing plans for Ultibro. On 23rd Nov VEC said that the results of the China/Asia COPD trial would be known by the end of the year, we're still waiting. It is no wonder that holders are concerned and some are reducing their holdings.|
|Well there's a seller, not significant numbers but the market might get spooked by a big holder reducing. We will know if the uptrend of the last few months gets broken...|
|Agree , alord53|
|AO , if were seller/s with more than 3% , we should have rns already.
We dont have rns yet, so it means that seller/s have less than 3% or we have short seller/s.
sp is under pressure despite buy recommendations almost of all analysts.|
|If there is a seller and they have over 3% there should be an RNS in the near future,if there is more than one seller over 3% it could take some time.
|There is definitely a very large overhang holding the share price back IMO... it has been going on for a while... so I think it more likely to be a fund manager, possibly slowly readjusting a funds weighting levels after the merger? The share price is trying to rise but is constantly being held back... it's simply not being allowed to reflect VEC's recent interim results, recent reasonably good pipeline news, the two industry reports, (Gold and Crystal) expected excellent full yr results, or future prospects. Trump isn't helping but I think his mouth is nothing to be overly concerned about. Could well be a few more millions to be sold yet... but once cleared I think it's possible we will a re-rating.|