Vatukoula Gold Share Discussion Threads

[janyboy9] 02/4/2012 12:41

VATAKOUALA AREA VILLAGES UNDER 7 FEET OF WATER




Floodwaters reach records

Monday, April 02, 2012

FLOODWATERS reached record levels in most places in the Western Division yesterday as the region experienced more heavy rain.

Nadi felt the full brunt of the heavy downpours with the Nadi River bursting its banks again.

District Officer Nadi Peni Koro said the water levels had reached four to five feet in Nadi town at about 3pm yesterday and it was still rising.

"We still expect the water levels to rise higher than that," he said.

Mr Koro said all forms of communication were down, making it difficult for authorities to contact each other.

He said movement around the town had been restricted while rescue efforts were being carried out by police, military and fire officers.

A similar situation was experienced in Ba with most of the town's main areas inundated with floodwaters. Ba Town Council special administrator Arun Prasad said the market area and major business houses were flooded.

"Water in Ba town has reached seven feet and all our businesses have been badly affected," he said.

"Areas in Yalalevu and Wailailai are underwater and the residents there have moved to higher ground and to evacuation centres," said Mr Prasad.

Rakiraki provincial administrator Sitiveni Tavaga said entrance to the town was completely shut off.

Mr Tavaga said Rakiraki town had power supply and residents had been advised to collect rain water.

He said about nine families were evacuated yesterday morning following a fresh wave of rising floodwaters.

Lautoka's special administrator Praveen Bala said some landslides were recorded in a few places within the city yesterday.

Mr Bala said the Lautoka City Council had assessed the situation and he advised people to take necessary precautions.

Sigatoka town and Tavua also experienced flooding in most areas.

Surrounding villages and settlements were inundated by floodwaters while residents were moved to evacuation centres by the authorities.

[speedwaymad] 02/4/2012 12:37

I may be interested in releiving some distressed sellers, such as "Michaels" here at around 40p.

[janyboy9] 02/4/2012 12:27

HELLO HAS SOMETHING LEAKED ... (INTO THE MINE)?

[ceohunter] 02/4/2012 11:49

The directors of Pan African Resources (AIM: PAF), Nostra Terra Oil & Gas (AIM: NTOG), Vatukoula Gold Mines (AIM: VGM) and Longreach Oil and Gas Ltd (TSX-V: LOI) will be presenting in London on Wednesday 18th April 2012.

VENUE: Chesterfield Mayfair Hotel, 35 Charles Street, Mayfair, W1J 5EB (Charles Suite)

The presentations will start at 6:00pm and finish at approx 8:00pm. After the presentations are complete the directors will also be available to take questions during a free canapé and wine reception.

REGISTER YOUR ATTENDANCE FOR FREE HERE:

[speedwaymad] 02/4/2012 11:02

I'd hate to think Paxton might get his feet wet.

[charleyduck] 02/4/2012 10:42

A cyclone is NOT expected.
The warning was withdrawn 12 hours ago.


A shallow tropical depression was located west-southwest of Nadi at 12pm today-gradually moving towards the south. But it is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone over Fiji waters according to the duty forecaster at the Fiji Meteorological Service in Nadi.

[janyboy9] 02/4/2012 10:01

THE BIG CYCLONE HAS NOT EVEN HIT YET !!!!!!!!!!!!
ROADS UNDER WATER POWER LINES WASHED AWAY
NO COMMUNICATION


2 hours ago

Flood-stricken Fiji braces for cyclone

Frustrated locals say the interim government doesn't have the funds or resources to help people





MON, 02 APR 2012 6:03P.M.

The first evacuation flights have arrived from Fiji, bringing hundreds of stranded New Zealanders out – with tales of tears and hardship.
But the mercy flights were soon grounded again, by a cyclone due to hit the main island of Veti Levu in the next 24 hours.
Fiji is now a country under deep, brown, murky water. Locals can't escape it – it's everywhere.
Flooding has already claimed the lives of four people, three more are missing. At least 8,000 have been forced out of their homes.
A young Australian family is stranded and struggling, telling media there's a lot of uncertainty hanging over the next few days.
"We hear the cyclone is coming in. Weather-wise it's going to get worse. We can't get out. We are stranded," traveller John Grimley says.
Communication, he says, has been non-existent. Food and supplies are scarce.
In some areas, dead animals float in the murky water.
Yesterday, the Fijian government declared a state of emergency.
Frustrated locals say the interim government doesn't have the funds or resources to help people.
"We haven't been formally asked for support, but New Zealand stands by ready to give support," says Prime Minister John Key. "Serious situation. Weather is getting worse."


Read more:


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[janyboy9] 02/4/2012 09:46

YESTERDAY







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[janyboy9] 02/4/2012 09:36

This bullboard never learns. avoid VGM for the sake of your wealth













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[dukedosh] 02/4/2012 09:01

This bullboard never learns. Don't feed the trolls!

[phillis] 01/4/2012 14:57

Development costs are high
They always have been but previously they were capitalised allowing VGM to show a profit that really wasn't

[elban] 31/3/2012 23:25

looky,

the previous owners had to do just as much development work as VGM are currently doing in order to produce 110,000 oz a year. Hence this does not increase the total costs. [Most of the VGM development work is just to replace the 60,000 oz per year thay they are producing. The big increase in development is mostly because VGM were previously not doing enough to replace what they were removing.]

VGM development work reduces the number of oz produced and so increaces the cash costs - but I had already taken that into account.

I believe that VGM are pulling less rock tons out of the mine now than the previous owners did when running at a steady 100,000+ oz. They are both similarly limited by the number of shafts and the decline.

[looky] 31/3/2012 23:05

Janyboy9


For the record I have extracted the main paragraph on the front page of HD Securities note which states

"Unlike many of its gold producing peers, VGM does not suffer from a lack of Resources or exploration potential. In fact it may suffer the ignominy, in three to four years' time, of having 8 to 10Moz Au in Resources, or in-excess of 100 years mine life at the current extraction rate. We believe our valuation of VGM is conservative, based entirely on projected cashflows from its key project, the Emperor/Vatukoula Gold mine. The non-linear financial model incorporates both fixed and variable components, as well as a Stage 2 expansion costing US$270m, large on-going annual underground capital development, and a five-year US$134m exploration programme. Given the enormity of out-going cashflows, we have expanded the number of shares on issue by 24%. Based on modelled cashflows and an issued capital base of 111.02m shares, we initiate with a BUY recommendation and value VGM at an after-tax NPV12% of 165p per share. Our 3-year valuation is based on after-tax cashflows from FY15 onwards, which results in 247p per share."


I think it is very clear that HD Securities like the shares, feel it is undervalued and have a buy recommendation.

You are now going on about the costs which management have accepted are high due to the significant amount of development work being undertaken. The costs per tonne are actually very competitive within the industry. This is a well managed mine which is undergoing a significant amount of updating which is costly. Management have reiterated that the costs per ounce will fall significantly over the next two years to $800oz when production reaches 100koz and this takes no account of the potentially significant cost saving of over $100oz if the biogeneration plant moves forward.

[janyboy9] 31/3/2012 19:11

COULD ANYONE WHO BELIEVES THAT THEY WILL MAKE OVER £11M IN THE NEXT 6 MONTHS..... CALL ME IMMEDIATELY .


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[janyboy9] 31/3/2012 19:08

total costs now 3 times larger than the total costs of the previous opperators - despite employing only half of the workforce??



BY JINGO I HAVE IT !!!!!!!! --- THEY PAY THE WORKERS SIX TIMES AS MUCH -- SIMPLES


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[looky] 31/3/2012 18:10

I have now been through the latest detailed research notes of WH Ireland the company's Nomad and broker and HD Capital and this is what they say:

Current price targets of 122p (WH Ireland) and 165p (HD Securities). HD Securities also have a 3 year price target of 247p
Both believe the mine has enormous potential
Both state they have used conservative assumptions in arriving at their valuations
Both have buy recommendations on the stock

The production figures I quoted are part of the company's presentation and according to the company are based on a more realistic bottom up approach to the mine plan. The production of 30k oz in the first 6 months of this financial year is at the rate management expected and they are highly confident of hitting 65k oz this year. The increases in 2013 and 2014 are based on a detailed seven year mine plan and financial model and management are highly incentivised to reach these figures. I asked management about HD Securities forecasts and why they are lower. They reported that HD Securities did not have sight of the mine plan and made their own assumptions as to the ramp up.


At Fridays closing price of 62.5p, VGM is valued at £55m. It is forecast to make PAT in the current year of $18.8m, say £12m (WH Ireland) placing the shares on a PE of 4.5x.

The company's management have accepted that they have made mistakes but they are working hard to deliver for shareholders. Management own share and options over 6% of the shares and have options/warrants at prices starting from £1, they know they have to deliver and are incentivised to do so. All of the large shareholders have retained their shares and while the last year has been painful I am looking forward to a multiple return over the next 3 years.

[speedwaymad] 31/3/2012 17:36

Something IS clearly wrong ELBAN - but then what would you expect with people like "Michaels" as investors here?

[elban] 31/3/2012 14:58

janyboy,

I think that you are missing the most important point.

Ignore future predictions and what analysts say. That's all hot air and guesswork.

The problem that realy needs explaining is:
why are VGM's total costs now 3 times larger than the total costs of the previous opperators - despite employing only half of the workforce??

A greater than 300% cost increase in about 6 years and producing 40% less gold and with loads of new equipment and part of the production is from cheap oxide ore.
Somthing is clearly wrong!