Vantis Share Discussion Threads

[juju43] 02/5/2008 11:38

looking like its on its way now

[juju43] 22/4/2008 18:22

insolvencies and assosiated market is about to explode

[agreeable] 22/4/2008 15:09

They are still piled high with debt and with too high a level of debtors and WIP. Their acquisition led model is now dead in the water, with a less busy stockmarket and fewer private equity deals there will be a reduction in fee income plus the bigger firms will be happy to take on smaller jobs until the market recovers

[egoi] 22/4/2008 10:15

Think you are right Juju, Directors buying, share price bottomed.

As i said might happen it got trashed with all the others because it is a 'financial' in the eyes of the market.

Recent results set a strong base, and recovery should go a long way. Nice chart gap to fill and stale shorters forced to close soon imho on any further gains.

[juju43] 22/4/2008 09:24

i am on breakeven. this is about to come good i think.in the right business

[juju43] 22/4/2008 08:24

maybe we have turned

[juju43] 18/4/2008 09:11

perhaps at last ...........?

[lapiteau] 07/4/2008 16:41

Well at least they are having lots of fun in the interim:





Lap

[dinger74] 07/4/2008 16:33

The lack of communication from the senior management who have overseen this major slump is very worrying indeed. I recall when Tenon was in its slump there was an undertaking from the senior people that shareholder value would be a priority - I'm not sure the same can be said of VTS.

[agreeable] 03/4/2008 09:55

To take private they would need to take on more debt, they are already up to their kneck in debt. The key issue here is cash flow. The business model is built upon offering a number of services where they are only paid at the end of the process eg business recovery, taxation planning etc, thus huge debtors position. There is little chance of a bid, the other majors BDO, Baker Tilly etc would not want to be landed with all this debt, Tenon went through their bad times but the 'Bob Morton' fan club now supports the price. IMHO it will take a new management team and the formal abandonment of 'buy and build' before we see some recovery. They need to abandon the 'tricky tax deals' and some of the reputation issues they have picked up in their Sports division. At some point a Luke Johnson type figure will take a stake and force change. In the meantime more drift downwards

[lapiteau] 02/4/2008 23:18

A few questions:

Their closest rival is Tenon. Their business models are near identical. Why is it the case that Vantis' share price has collapsed and Tenons has held up? Is it the debt issue that is making the city nervous?

If the company is so good, why has noone made an offer to buy it at this ridiculously low price?

Also, would it make sense for the directors to take the business private? Currently the market cap is half the company's T/O and only about three times their net profit. They own the majority of shares and would probably get better value. Private, they could probably demand far more than the current market cap were they to sell up and retire.

Any thoughts?

lapiteau

[amd7000] 02/4/2008 18:01

Sit tight and wait i think, this will be higher by the end of the year without a doubt.

[agreeable] 02/4/2008 13:14

difficult to see this as double bottom, more death spiral. By my calculation market capitalisation is now less than debt

[juju43] 25/3/2008 08:35

double bottom . time to make some money i think

[agreeable] 18/3/2008 17:38

until the point raised by lapiteau above is resolved it looks to me as though this has been funded by the Directors or is there a pension scheme now buying shares (or maybe all those investors still waiting for their HMRC clearnces on the Charities Scheme)Also I am at a loss as to how the earn out is based upon performance and growth expectation, how do they measure expectation? This will be a fascinating contract to read when it goes on display.
This company twists and turns but the inevitable downward vortex is established

[egoi] 18/3/2008 16:01

Looks a nice bolt-on. Clearly shows they are confident about their own finances. Think someone claimed they couldn't afford any acquisitions. There you go! -:)

[lapiteau] 18/3/2008 15:30

Hell agreeable

I am confused by this too.

Also, have you got any idea what this statement means in the RNS:

"The Board of Vantis has for some time been planning to implement an acquisition structure to embrace an investment opportunity for appropriate and relevant members of the team. This is part of a longer term progressive transition to a broader management equity structure. These investment opportunities are intended to be an ongoing tool to build the capital base of Vantis' key team members and to support future acquisitions. This first investment will contribute towards the acquisition cost of Brewer Higgins."

This suggests that they are not using their own cash, but that of key staff members.

Very confusing.

Thanks

[agreeable] 18/3/2008 09:20

not sure if i have missed something about today's announced acquisition, last years turnover £770,000, acquiring half the business ie non audit and this turns over £800,000. Profit attributable to be £380,000, why would they sell for £415,000 i.e. one years profits. I would suggest the exceptional costs on re-organisation will carry the answer. The key issue here will be cash, they are over-borrowed at present and expending cash on a marginal acquisitions seems odd

[juju43] 12/3/2008 12:45

very unloved lady here. i think its turn is not far off ... and when it arrives ..........

[juju43] 23/2/2008 10:39

i have dipped a toe here.i think it is very oversold and is in the right place at the right time. falling interest rates will take care of the debt cost

[juju43] 05/2/2008 19:14

when interest rates come down - imminent - this will soar

[agreeable] 05/2/2008 09:33

I was reacting to scumdogs suggestion of a share placing and saying that the only share issue that would have a chance would be a convertible with a good yoeld. as for talking to VTS i know a number of people who work inside VTS and indeed a number who have left.

[egoi] 02/2/2008 13:46

Agreeable speaking to VTS?? Thanks Lapiteau. -:)

Why does that not surprise me!

Trying to get in on this rumoured placing ahead of an acquisition maybe agreeable? Not quite as public spirited as you'd like us to believe on here?

[lapiteau] 02/2/2008 00:46

Scumdog/Agreeable

Are you suggesting a share placing to reduce some of the debt? I cannot see that there would be any take up were this the case.

Also agreeable, your mail infers that you have tried to speak with the company. Can you confirm that this is the case?

Thanks

[agreeable] 01/2/2008 13:24

Difficult to see how they can place more shares at this level, the institutions who took them at 180p cannot be happy, maybe a convertible but this would be very dilutive for the equity. No-one inside the organisation is allowed to say anything in case it further hurts the share price, as I have always said before long the good partners will head for higher ground