Van Dieman Mines Share Discussion Threads

[katylied] 11/3/2008 12:32

Project management is about reaching project milestones on schedule.
To say that you are on schedule in mid Feb (for late March), then
just weeks later push the milestone back up to 2 months,
is not a news management issue...

[maddox] 11/3/2008 11:25

I'm not sure that this is a project management issue - more a news management issue. Their stated dates appear to be consistently based on an optimistic best case scenario. Much of the delivery is based on factors which will fall outside of their sphere of control. Which they then fail to achieve. That ruins their credibility. The fact that they do this repeatedly does raise questions about their ability to learn from past mistakes.

Regards, Maddox

[katylied] 11/3/2008 09:12

Well it is not really the same board of directors now. However the new ones are still having to deal with the legacy of the old. I wonder if the departure of Trist was connected to this latest delay? I find it very hard to believe that this problem just 'appeared' in the last couple of weeks. More likely I suspect, it was just one more screw-up too many, for the new regime to tolerate...

[cestnous] 11/3/2008 08:54

As posted before, most small miners have a share price run up as they approach production, and often a sell off when they reach it, as this is when investors expect gliches. VDM never had the run up as the delays were so long. I don't personally see any share price increase until production is reached, in our case, and maybe even a few moths later when it occured and steadied.

I only hope the mangement are not as incompetent as some are coming to believe.

[daz] 11/3/2008 08:39

Yes, it was too good to be true, that they would get the mine in on time. They actually were talking about December at the AGM, in H2 last year, so that's about a 5 month delay in 3 or 4 months, room for improvement I'd say.

Surprised the share price has not reacted.

[katylied] 11/3/2008 08:25

14 February 2008 - The board of Van Dieman Mines further confirms that the Scotia Mine Treatment Plant is expected to be in production by end March 2008.

11 March 2008 - The Board currently believes that this will delay the completion of the tailings dam construction until mid to late April. It is expected that production will commence immediately thereafter from the stockpiles and the board anticipates a ramp-up to full production within a period of one month following completion of the dams.

So, production has slipped yet again (remember? the original target from ~10 months ago, was before the end of 2007). And just 4 weeks ago, all was fine for the end of March. Note that 'full production' (which is all anyone should be interested in) is now scheduled for sometime in (end of?) May.

However, I doubt many who follow this are especially surprised.
Historic Project Management skills at VDM are... Ho Hmmmmm...

[m5artin] 11/3/2008 08:04

Delays , delays, delays why can't these sort of things be forseen and allowed for in the planning stage.

[varies] 10/3/2008 11:17

Further to my comments on Metals X I now see (having succeeeded in downloading various reports) that they are closing Collingwood and concentrating all their efforts (as far as tin is concerned) on Tasmania. Renison and Mt Bischoff should produce 8500 tpa in 2008/09 and they have tailings too.
(Whether Metals X will make more out of their tin or their nickel interests is hard to tell; this will probably depend on the metal prices)
Another company one might consider is Consolidated Tin Mines, a very small oufit with projects in Queensland. Strictly for optimists !

[varies] 09/3/2008 23:34

chipperfrd
Thanks so much for correcting my careless mistake and providing a figure that makes sense.

[chipperfrd] 09/3/2008 17:45

varies,

I cannot agree with your revenue numbers!

(for 2009) 1400t Sn @ $20,000 = $28m (not $112m!).

The target product is a concentrate grading 74% Sn (hence about 1900t of concentrate).

Treatment charges will be $244/dmt concentrate plus credits for Tantalum.

Obviously there will then be mining & processing costs, G&A, Interest, Royalty, Tax, etc to come off the top.

With the Sapphires included I arrive at around $18.6m for net earnings (about 6p/share).

Chip

[varies] 09/3/2008 15:30

In an attempt to answer my own question I have been looking at Metals X Ltd.
This is a much bigger company (mkt cap 980 million x A$0.32= $314m) and combines the former Bluestone Tin with Metals Exploration Ltd. I am having trouble downloading the info but it seems that Tin probably represents under half the business.
Bluestone owns the old Renison mines in Tasmania (which it thinks of re-opening) and the hard rock Collingwood mine in Queensland which it describes as the largest tin producer in Australia producing 5700 tonnes of concentrate p.a. grading 60% Sn.
VDM's update on 13 Dec 2007 told us that production from Scotia and Endurance should reach c. 1400 tpa but did not stipulate the grade.Might this be 60% too ?
I don't think that a comparison between Metals X and VDM provides much guidance on the value of VDM but I am pleased to see that in this context 1400 tpa is a respectable quantity.
1400 x US$20,000 x 60% = US$112 million, say A$123m gross annual sales but, of course, the price of nearly $20,000 is unlikely to last. I suppose that the current resources are expected to provide enough tin for the 6 year contract.
Then, of course, we have the sapphires too. So there should be plenty of cash coming in once we get started.

[varies] 08/3/2008 15:46

I have bought a few shares since the IC tip.
It would be interesting to know whether there are other quoted companies whose primary product is tin outside Cornwall and Indonesia and how VDM compares with them.I cannot find any but would be glad to hear from anyone who knows better.

I came near to investing in Sons of Gwalia shortly before they went bust. As far as I can remember their principal interests were in tantalum and gold but they had tin too. I wonder what became of their licenses.

Looking back over the long list of announcements since VDM's admission to AIM in 2004 it is rather depressing to see quite how often we have been assured that production was only months away; also how many changes of directors.
The presentation given in Jan. 2008 is headed "Production March 2008" and it will certainly be embarrassing for the directors if they fail to achieve this.

The RAB shareholding is a drag but I still think this is an attractive punt and will alter our scoreboard by rating the shares a buy.

[cestnous] 07/3/2008 14:31

Daz

I took a very small posn in these @ 22p, hoping to build as time progressed, but its gone down ever since. Nothing yet has convinced me to increase my holdings. I would have expected some upward movement by now but it seems that the tin/sapphire combination is not lighting anyones fire, perhaps because it's unusual. Best hope, is that it will rise when there is some DEFINITE news of production, without words like 'expected' inserted as an obvious safeguard.
Small miners usually rise on imminent production, and often fall when production is announced , as investors shy away from the prospect of production teething problems. I suspect (and hope) that here it may be the other way round, after the record of delays we have had, more delays is probably what potential investors fear most.

[katylied] 07/3/2008 14:14

jonwig, from 2007... The high grade tin concentrate is dried and bagged in 1.5 tonne bulker bags for shipment to the Thaisarco smelter in Phuket, Thailand... ...but doesn't say from where.

...Gladstone came into existence in 1870 when, after tin had been discovered in the area, miners arrived and a town grew up around the tin mine. Today mining has almost disappeared from the district.... many tin mining ruins notably at Boobyalla which was once Gladstone's port...

So Daz, maybe by truck to Burnie? Guess I will have to e:mail and ask. If it is Burnie, it may be possible in future, to spot the ships on the port schedule (ie. cargo concentrate, destination Phuket, Thailand)...

[daz] 07/3/2008 13:33

KL

I seem to remember from the AGM that Burnie was mentioned, it's also quite close. Gladstone is inland, looking at the google map, so can't be from there

[jonwig] 07/3/2008 13:30

KL, the prospectus (page 80) has:

The tin concentrates from the VDM tenements will be packed in 1 tonne bulk bags and shipped to Malaysia from the port of Bell Bay near Launceston.

That may have changed, of course since 2004.

I've mulled about whether to re-enter these. They should be a bargain, but clearly something isn't quite right. ("Ho-Hummm")

[katylied] 07/3/2008 13:16

Burnie is a large port and is associated with minerals, timber etc., whereas little info appears to be available about the Gladstone port (not to be confused with the large Queensland port of the same name). So I was wondering... from where exactly, is the concentrate shipped? It is produced in Gladstone, butthen what? Anyone know?... obviously Hectorp doesn't have a clue (as usual), but does anyone know?...

Burnie port publishes an on-line shipping schedule...

[hectorp] 07/3/2008 12:25

OK got that chip
H.

[katylied] 07/3/2008 09:37

I was wondering about the 'shipping' to Thailand. A document from 2006 stated... It is anticipated that concentrate shipping will occur twice a week from Gladstone... Which seems quite substantial, though tonnage was not specified. Still, cash-flow is what is needed now... and lots of it...

Another 2006 document says ...via coastal shipping from Burnie...

[ramnik007] 05/3/2008 08:09

Tin 3mo Official $/m tonne 19247.50

With a seller in the mkt, in my view, it is a great opportunity for private investors to buy with what is happening to Tin price.

When company IPO'd Tin was at approx $7000/ m tonne and yet investors were willing to pay approx 35p; with all the risks of developing the mine and securing all the equipment.

[cestnous] 04/3/2008 16:17

From that article

'If RAB isn't under other, heavy, selling pressure, then Minesite should be getting the seasoning ready for his hat. '

All the small co sells add up ......

[chipperfrd] 04/3/2008 14:09

Daz,

I agree, but the reality is that is what they are doing. See the link for an example:

[daz] 04/3/2008 13:48

While RAB may be trying to trim their holding especially as they bought in the recent placings, they wouldn't get anywhere near to plugging their NRK losses with their VDM stake. If that is the case they would have to liquidate far more valuable and saleable holdings.