Valiant Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[utrecht_00] 07/3/2013 14:14

Ed - you expecting anybody else to bid or no?

[ed 123] 07/3/2013 14:09

Yep, and even longer till we get to my old Valiant bid target of 540p. That would need Ithaca to trade at 175p.

Ithaca/Valiant responding to good news from Taqa.

[utrecht_00] 07/3/2013 14:04

rising along with iae. A while before we get to 475p though.

[utrecht_00] 06/3/2013 17:02

wheres the counter bid?

[bbluesky] 04/3/2013 21:50

Have we have reached that point of playing cards. (And fair play to Ch C in spotting the anomaly, whilst Rome (VPP) burns?) And to be historical Rome didn't finish there!
Let's play cricket. Frankly Cheyene Capital sound like an outfit who have to take singles because they are incapable of scoring a century. I am more interested in VPP or their assets and prospects in the ground, a couple of ducks(dusters)does not mean you are without value - Bell?

[ed 123] 04/3/2013 17:01

utrecht_00.

Well, maybe, but they've done a pairs trade which looks like they make money whether Ithaca/Valiant go up or down.

They've gone long Valiant, short Ithaca, all using CFDs.

Valiant buy average around 451p. If the bid runs its course, then Ithaca would have to be under about 108.5p for them to lose. But they must profit overall anyway, since at 108.5p, they will make about 9.5p on each Ithaca short (average about 118p).

A good pairs trade.

[utrecht_00] 04/3/2013 16:10

interesting Cheyne Capital management buying 3.45% on friday. Expecting a higher bid or a cheap way into IAE?

[utrecht_00] 04/3/2013 09:17

the more IAE weakens the higher the chance of a counter bid. Forget 475p at the moment this deal is a 445p one. And that a shocker.

PB must be licking his lips on this one.

[llef] 03/3/2013 14:31

new cormorant alpha leak

[mcdougall1] 03/3/2013 14:28

Hmmm, I think on balance I'll probably hold and see what happens. Given that VPP appear to be recommending the deal there should be a good chance it goes through.

Besides, my timing usually sucks anyway...

It would be good if a competing offer comes in, but I'm not holding my breath.

McD

[hpcg] 03/3/2013 12:42

There are several reasons I'm holding for the duration - the timetable is short anyway so I don't see much lost opportunity in redeploying the cash. If you think that the deal is cheap then there might be short upside recognised in IAE shares and that means upside to the bid value. If you think its good value for IAE then those shares are a way to retain an interest in that under valuation. If you think it makes IAE more attractive to a predator then IAE shares are worth having. Any which way you look at it the market discount to full value in the bid means that on any particular day it is cheaper to buy IAE shares through VPP than IAE.

Norwegian exploration is amazingly cash effective for high risk high reward plays like Storbaden so given that VPP has already made a move the other side of the median line I think there is a future for an independent VPP if the deal falls through.

Finally there could be a higher bid from the third party but I can't say I'm expecting that.

[utrecht_00] 02/3/2013 18:52

McDougall- I think there is a reasonable chance of a higher bid hence why I am holding. I think most agree its a steal at these prices.

IAE really do not have that many II's on board, after all this time they have guaranteed only 6.2% of shares (letters of intent mean nothing).

I think that spells out what holders think.

There are a number of other II's who have obviously said sod off as well as PB who holds a big chunk.

I expect PB to make a move to be honest. 5 pounds cash is a low ball but it blows IAE out of the water and would make a fortune for the acquirer.

Maybe the Indians or Chinese could come in.

In any case we don't have long to wait as the deal is set to be tied up one way or another by mid/end April.

[mcdougall1] 02/3/2013 17:36

What do peeps reckon on the chances of a competing bid for VPP ?

I'm mulling over whether to sell VPP now and top up elsewhere while valuations look cheap (e.g. AEY, TRAP, IAE) or see whether someone else such as Dana or Taqa come in for a cheeky £5.00 per share cash bid?

For IAE to have payback in 2.5 years and still have half the P1 reserves left is a pretty good deal, so maybe someone with deeper pockets would not need to pay much more to leave IAE behind....

McD

[utrecht_00] 02/3/2013 14:20

Christ, we'd be at 50 quid a share if that were true. 100 quid on drilling handcross alone and it being dry!

[hpcg] 02/3/2013 13:47

hilarious - so why didn't the share price soar on all those other dusters?

[mcdougall1] 02/3/2013 13:26

Hi Utrecht,

Very funny !

[utrecht_00] 02/3/2013 13:13

There's always a ray of sunshine though, this did make me laugh.

[pyemckay] 02/3/2013 03:00

held vpp for 3 years at 450p 420p and 405p. disppointed but glad to get some kind of price returned. looks like a stitch up to me. but i sold and i bought IAE. if you think vpp is undervalued get in to iae. no brainer once again.

i sold up today..

[flyingbull] 02/3/2013 00:27

The March oil stock competition challenge is still on.....deadline for entries is Midnight on Monday 4 March 2013.

Best regards,
fb

[frazboy] 02/3/2013 00:22

i think Ithaca's management team have done their homework. i also think that a combined group makes sense. am i disappointed with the offer? yes, a little, but i do believe it's all that ithaca could afford and the market could stomach. do i think the take over will go ahead? yes

i sold out today but have bought back into Ithaca

i look forward to the usual posters contributions on that thread when this one goes quiet