Vale Int Share Discussion Threads

[deswalker] 01/5/2007 10:52

looking good. still hoping for 30p by Christmas.

[cockneyrebel] 01/5/2007 10:39

This stock is making a breakout through the old 19.5p resistance level - bodes well for it to go a lot higher imo.

CR

[rainmaker] 30/4/2007 12:40

Moving up nicely but IMHO still a lot further to go. Why are some Investors selling here?IMHO there're crazy just because you have a one bagger over the last six months is no reason to sell.It reminds me of the saying "Always let the Company's underlying value as dictated by fundamental factors not the share price act as your guide" If it goes to 110p they will have had a 10 bagger. How will they feel then?
Certainly I believe that there is plenty more upside from current levels(the prospective p/e at the offer price is still in single figures at just 9.46 times) and short term expect +30p but slightly longer term expect to see substantially higher prices
regards

[rainmaker] 26/4/2007 13:10

A little Ben Graham "intrinsic" valuation model applied to VIG

Raw data
E-current or historic eps ie 12 months to 31 Dec 2006-1.51p
prospective eps ie forecast eps for 12 months to 31 Dec 2007- 2.06p
G-Growth rate-36.42%
Y-Yield on AAA rated Bonds(ie 5 year gilt as none listed)-5%

Equation as follows-

E(2G + 8.5)x 4.4 ./.(ie divided by) Y

=1.51(2x36.42 + 8.5) x 4.4 ./. 5.0

=1.51(81.34) x 4.4 ./. 5.0

=108p

VI Group (VIG) is currently trading at just 18p

regards

[rainmaker] 23/4/2007 13:10

Another "Buy" recommendation this time Shares Magazine released last Thursday 19 April. Not a particularly long piece, about 100 words, talks about acquisitions and says that even though VIG have all but doubled, with a prospective p/e of less than 10 they are a buy

regards

[rainmaker] 20/4/2007 12:51

More buying....can't be long before the MM move the price higher..Will check level 2.Note that VIG's share price is up 80% in the last six months, a similiar move in the same time frame will take it to +32p before the year end.VIG is currently trading a ridiculously low prospective p/e of less than 9 times

regards

[rainmaker] 20/4/2007 12:51

More buying....can't be long before the MM move the price higher..Will check level 2.Note that VIG's share price is up 80% in the last six months, a similiar move in the same time frame will take it to +32p before the year end.VIG is currently trading a ridiculously low prospective p/e of less than 9 times

regards

[rainmaker] 18/4/2007 12:51

Hi DW-saw the article but the forecast eps was wrong-should be 2.06p. More buying in the last few days and little in the way of selling which is always a good sign-hopefully the price will move up in the next few days

regards

[deswalker] 17/4/2007 11:23

Nice to see the tick up.

Small write-up in the IC last week with a buy rec.

[rainmaker] 12/4/2007 13:14

Just having a cursory look at VIG's forecasts and note that Turnover is predicted to rise by £1.6mln in the current year.Aslo that VIG's earnings and turnover will fall in 2008?! However Camtek's turnover in the twelve months to Dec 2005 was £1.9 mln?!We correctly predicted that VIG's EPS would exceed 1.17p and we were proved corrected. Can their House Broker, Blue Oar be relied upon?I feel it's about time VIG brought in some paid for research

regards

[rainmaker] 12/4/2007 13:01

Lets see what the IC make of VIG's results-really can't see them rating them other than"good value" but as everyone knows, they have an infinite capacity to disappoint!

regards

[rainmaker] 11/4/2007 12:41

Could well be a case of Post Earnings Announcement Drift whereby figures are better than expected after the initial price surge the price comes back a little before shooting up again!At their current rating I cannot see any other outcome!

regards

[valhamos] 10/4/2007 20:55

Aim_Trader - Thanks for highlighting that. Good write up - though SMIRTware was acquired in 2005 rather than 2006 as suggested in the article, the first acquisition in 2006 being Plastics & Computer. I like the reminder that despite the recent share price increase, it still only trades at around 30% over book - net asset value per share 13.2p

Rainmaker - Current year broker forecast noted. Probably conservative (as all good forecasts should be) considering the momentum they seem to be building up, but fine for now.

Particularly struck by the following in the results statement "New sales to existing customers accounted for 63% of revenues as they expanded the VI solutions within their own organisations" - which suggests a good take up by the customer base of the recently expanded product range, and validates the strategy of concentrating on highly specific products for particular application areas eg automotive and plastic injection moulding.

[rainmaker] 10/4/2007 12:59

Hi EJ-They will pay a dividend when they have the distributable reserves. Aside from the extremely low rating, the main reason I look for a sharp upward move is that VIG have most definitely closed the credibility gap that existed previously

regards

[rainmaker] 10/4/2007 12:51

Hi Valhamos-Estimate for the current year(to 31 Dec 07) is 2.06p so at 17.75p mid price VIG trade on a prospective P/E of just x 8.61.They have 1.82p for 2008 which is obviously a mistake as they were the old estimates for 2007. Very convinced that a sharp spike to +30p will happen in the coming weeks!!Coincidentially some years ago VIG went from around 10 to 36p in the space of a week or so-check out the chart

regards

[valhamos] 07/4/2007 21:57

Rainmaker. Apologies, yes you're right - the broker forecast was after the Camtek acquisition was announced. I noticed the two months Camtek contribution; it suggests there may be more profit to come than the contribution we were expecting based on the acquisition announcement, though difficult to extrapolate with any confidence based on just two months.

As regards dividends, I can only think VIG were under pressure a while back from some of the VCTs to pay a dividend to some way compensate for the low share price. But now the share price is now moving in the right direction, and while they continue to identify profitable acquisitions to invest the cash they're generating, I can't say it's a top priority - certainly not for me.

Still very cheap imo and although you've always been more optimistic than me on share price movement, 30p can't be too far away.

[rainmaker] 07/4/2007 17:57

EJ-think it would be a big mistake to top slice. As per dividend they are obviously playing it by the Book but a dividend will obviously be paid it's just a question of when-will investigate further

regards

[rainmaker] 07/4/2007 17:54

Hi Guys-Just catching up with the recent results.Valhamos believe that 1.82p 2007 forecast was after Camtek acquisition so based on recent historic earnings the current year should be 2.16p(Forecast was 1.17p for 2006)putting the shares on a prospective p/e of just 8.33 when the sector average is 17 which would mean 36p. expect VG's share price to make substantial progress from current levels and reach 30p in the next few months.

Very encouraged by the results if you look at Camtek acquisition it contributed operating profits £100k in just two months equivalent to an annual figure of £600k compare that to it's last year's profits pre takeover.Obviously there will be more productivity gains to be made.Absolutely convinced that this share price is going to fly

regards