Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Utilico Emerging Markets LSE:UEM London Ordinary Share BMG931151069 ORD 10P (DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 208.25p 209.25p 210.50p - - - 5,267.00 10:05:15
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Equity Investment Instruments 21.3 18.6 8.1 25.9 442.42

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Date Time Title Posts
15/3/201719:14Utilico Emerging Markets 80.00
07/1/201510:27Interesting New Inv.Trust314.00

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Utilico Emerging Markets Daily Update: Utilico Emerging Markets is listed in the Equity Investment Instruments sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker UEM. The last closing price for Utilico Emerging Markets was 208.25p.
Utilico Emerging Markets has a 4 week average price of 211.09p and a 12 week average price of 204.31p.
The 1 year high share price is 216.75p while the 1 year low share price is currently 0p.
There are currently 212,448,067 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 106,806 shares. The market capitalisation of Utilico Emerging Markets is £442,423,099.53.
kenmitch: mustardmark. 1. Good online brokers all allow on line trades on warrants and sub shares. And PCFS is easy to trade online and usually well inside the spread too. My PCFS buys have all been so far inside the spread that they have been recorded as sells. PCFS is more liquid than UEMS. But UEMS is ok too, albeit on a wider spread, but again often able to buy and sell UEMS too well inside the spread. 2. Good luck with your UEMS stake if/when you buy. Can't go far wrong with £500 and if the share does drop it shouldn't be difficult to sell. BUT if looking to sell it is best to do so on an up day,as the price tends to be better then. Again depends on how good the broker is, but when sometimes it is difficult to buy or sell in size, then a "fill or kill" order usually works. I've rarely had any difficulty selling warrants, and certainly not for small stakes like yours. 3. Your stake might "only" be £500 but that gives roughly the same upside as £5000 in the share over the next year. So the sub is a no brainer IF thinking the share price rise is likely to continue. 4. Most newcomers to warrants and subs think they are highly volatile, very risky and risk of sudden wipe out. Have a look at the charts for both UEMS and PCFS and see that is just not the case. At times warrant and sub prices move very little for weeks.
kenmitch: badday. Yes. Very frustrating. Good reasons so few left, but won't explain why now. THE year to invest in them was 1993 when all but 2 of several hundred warrants ended the year UP, with average gain for all warrants 223%, with 70% at least doubling and only 2 ending the year down! No wonder I love/d warrants. mustardmark. What a shame you've only found out about them now. Over the years many long dated warrants in the money were low risk even though investors did (and you will probably have to too) have to sign a risk form that makes them sound very high risk before being allowed to trade them. The 2 best sub shares (sub shares are identical to warrants, except that if called a warrant it cannot go in to an ISA but if called a sub share it can!) are PCFS and UEMS. Neither are low risk simply because we are close to expiry date.. July 31st for PCFS and Feb next year for UEMS. And if a bear market soon, and if both PCFT and UEM falling and staying below their exercise prices then both could expire worthless. BUT remember we can buy and sell them at any time up to expiry date so no need to wait for that total loss. And you are not wiped out if the share price falls below the exercise price and then recovers again. And anyway £1000 staked in UEMS and the share crashes 20% fast could mean a loss of around 80% and £800. BUT if staking £5000 in the share the loss is £1000 so no more risky on that basis than the share. Right now imo PCFS has the edge over UEMS. We know higher interest rates are likely and are good for banks margins, and also the main PCFT holdings are on a very good run. Higher interest rates could be negative for UEM. And right now PCFT share price is UP to 134p to sell, making PCFS (exercise price 115p) worth 19p. Yet it can still be bought for a crazily too cheap 13.6p. it's a shame PCFS can't be exercised at any time as then there would be a great arbgitrage opportunity. In the past (e.g with 3i warrants) it was possible to arbitrage time and time again when market makers mis priced them as they are mis pricing both UEMS and PCFS right now. I hold both btw and have all I want. First bought PCFS years ago and though cutting some of the loss, held on to the rest all the way down to 1p to sell. Then started buying again at 2p and now that stake up to nearly 13p. So now well in profit again. Another plus for long dated warrants.. they can recover from huge % losses.
kenmitch: Hi badday. Good to see a post from you here. I've happy memories of your posts and some excellent investment finds on Mike Walters subscription website. As you'll know (but the helpul vacendak probably won't) there was a thriving warrant thread there, and also I ran a warrant portfolio that rocketed for a while (nearly tripled at it's peak) before we had to end it because there were so few warrants and subs left. And you'll also know my strong feelings about keeping it simple. Warrant fans elsewhere are inclined to make them sound far more complex than needed! Anyway to your questions: 1. They OUGHT to go up penny for penny with the share price BUT there are now very few warrants and sub shares left, and for reasons I can't fathom the market makers are now pricing PCFS and to a lesser extent UEMS at a discount. So it is not certain that they will go up penny for penny in line with the share. e.g as explained in my earlier post, if the share gets to 240p then UEMS is worth 57p (exercise price is 183p). BUT it's likely that UEMS will not go as high as that. My guess would be about 50p to sell with share at 240p. (You/we can get the full value by exercising). Note too that though spreads are wide it is often possible to buy both UEMS and PCFS so far inside the spread that sells are recorded as buys. This is nothing new btw. Biggest sub share winner on the portfolio on Mike's site was Geiger Counter sub shares where we bought a small stake at just 0.8p when the spread was 0.75p to 1.5p!!! The price peaked nearly times 60 higher at 46p. Bet you didn't buy any! (That gain was when the share only doubled) 2. re US interest rate rises and effects on Emerging markets. Opinion on the effects of this is divided, and also it varies from Country to Country, and anyway since rises this year are expected some of this will already be priced in. Also remember that UEMS invests mostly in Utilities. A safer than average sector, if a little boring. Hence share price upside potential not that large over the next year or so, and hence why imo it is far better to buy a small stake in UEMS than any stake in UEM. If UEM can go up a boring 10-15% or so over the next year, then UEMS is likely to go up 80%- to a bit over 100%. Hence my view that it is unwise exercising except at expiry time. Finally PCFS is also well worth a look. Unlike for UEM/UEMS interest rate rises are seen as good for banks - easy to widen margins. And US bank shares are flying this year. PCFT shares is 133.5p to sell,making PCFS worth 18.5p (exercise price is 115p and expiry July 31st this year). Yet though worth 18.5p PCFS could be bought for 13.5p on Friday. Ask if wanting to know more. Now that I know you're here I'll check this thread more often. Btw I don't see why you need to time your buying, except that ideal time is an up day for share and before UEMS is up too. As you might know I've rarely exercised a warrant in nearly 30 years investing in them, including the good old days when there were several hundred of them!
badday: Ken A couple of quick questions Now that subs are in the money, they should go up penny for penny with the share price? How do you see US interest rate rises rises affecting UEM? Has the recent rise been in anticipation of US rate rise increase? Cheer
kenmitch: mustardmark. If you are looking to build a position, then buying some sub shares now and exercising them at expiry time at 183p makes sense. Usually no dealing costs. Or just sell the sub shares in the market. Best to do that at least 4 weeks before final expiry date. With share currently 212p to sell, UEMS are worth 29p but could be bought for 26p today. Target 240p share price and UEMS worth 57p. So FAR more upside potential. e.g £1000 in UEMS if share gets to £2.40 will give profit not far off £1000. £5000 invested in the share now will give around £600 profit. So FAR more staked for FAR less reward! Few realise this. Hence very few trades and often sub price is cheap. And UEMS is very cheap.
vacendak: Result of the conversion round. Around one million shares have been converted, which represents only 0.6% of the total in circulation. Thirty three odd millions subs are left for the next rounds.
kenmitch: vacendak. Also a good post and very useful for any readers not familiar with sub shares, and I agree with most of it. I've invested in warrants and subs since the 1980s and they have often proved to be fabulous investments. Note too that only small sums invested give such good rewards. e.g invest £3000 in UEM and if share goes up 10% gain is £300. £500 invested in UEMS now and if share goes up 10% UEMS should go up around 80%. That gives a £100 BIGGER gain than £3000 invested in the share and with far less money risked should markets crash and take UEM way down too! re. UEMS. Don't agree re the sub being that volatile partly because the share isn't. A look at the UEMS chart should confirm that. Also the value of the sub won't be completely wiped out if the share falls until much closer to expiry date. BUT note if wanting to sell it is far easier to do so on an up day for the share. Then it is often possible to sell inside the spread too. It is also often possible to buy inside the spread too. e.g I added yesterday at 21.3p when the buy quote was 22.5p. After that buy they widened the spread again. Yes, so few subs are traded that even one buy or sell can move the price. re. converting at the end of this month? Why? You will then be holding more shares that will go up far slower. Why not continue to hold the subs if believing the share price is likely to rise? I'll convert as many of mine as I can afford to at the final opportunity next year. And if between now and then I want out of UEM/UEMS then I'll just sell the sub shares. Also. Yes. There should be no charges if/when exercising. I rarely exercise and usually just sell the sub in the market well ahead of expiry. Yes again. Subs are almost always issued for free and often on a one for five basis. It is like a disguised rights issue and if the subs are exercised it means a slightly lower NAV. BUT it also means that the Trust gets £millions when they are all exercised. Also for you and anyone else interested; I ran a warrant portfolio on Mike Walters website until we had to close it when there were too few warrants and subs left to invest in. It exactly doubled but did a lot better than that for a a time before lack of warrants and the odd poor call hit performance. One of those poor calls was PCFS which since that portfolio was closed has quadrupled. There are posts there right now on UEMS and PCFS and anyone interested is I think able to take out a brief free trial. I also am currently running an Investment Trust portfolio there, which we started nearly a year ago and is currently around 35% up. It did include UEMS but I sold that stake on a dip a few months ago.I make the buy/sell decisions and react to any suggestions made. A poster there does all the hard work updating it in brilliant and colourful fashion every week. It's worth visiting the site just to see how he does it! Shares there on the Investment Trust portfolio can be found on the KITE thread and posts on warrants and subs on the WARP thread.
kenmitch: The subscription shares (UEMS) are now very good value AND (some probably don't realise this) sub shares can go in to ISAs. For any not familiar with sub shares and warrants,they are traded the same way as shares though you may have to sign a risk form first if never having traded them before. As with shares they can be bought and sold at any time up to expiry date of Feb 28th next year. Exercise price is 183p. So with the share at 205p to sell, UEMS are currently worth 22p. Current buy quote is 24.5p but they can be bought inside the spread at 23.25p. Yesterday they could be bought for just 21.3p. Target a 5% gain for the share price to 215p and UEMS would be worth 32p, and around 35% more than the buy price today. Target a 10% share price gain to 225p to sell and UEMS would then be worth 42p and not far off double the current price. Downside. If the share price falls then UEMS will fall faster too. e.g 190p share price would mean UEMS only worth 7p. And if the share is 183p or lower at expiry then UEMS would expire worthless. A very good tactic if currently in profit on the share would be to take just that profit and reinvest it in UEMS. Then EITHER exercise at expiry by converting UEMS in to shares at just 183p a share OR sell ahead of expiry date or let them lapse and let the trustee appointed exercise for you. That trustee route is a last resort and better one of the first two options. Not always easy to trade sub shares in size as there are so few trades. BUT a very good way of maximising profits IF the share price can keep rising. e.g to give another example. While Polar Capital Finance Investment Trust shares have risen from around 115p late last year to 135p to sell now, their sub share PCFS has risen from 4p to buy to 13p to sell.
davebowler: Edison; The manager’s view: Investment opportunities abound The manager approaches the market as an owner of assets, without reference to the composition of the MSCI Emerging market index. For example, the portfolio has no exposure to Russia or South Africa, which are sizeable weightings within the index. He highlights two countries where portfolio exposure has been increased: Romania and Mexico. Romania – the country has a population of 20 million, with GDP per capita of $22,000. It has benefited significantly since the IMF bailout in 2009; there is now more monetary and fiscal prudence at the government level and there is a more conservative approach to investment at the corporate level. Romania is one of the fastest growing economies in Europe; the IMF forecasts GDP growth of 4.2% in 2016 and 3.6% in 2017 vs 2.0% and 2.1% respectively for Europe as a whole. There is strong domestic consumer demand and wages are growing; core inflation is positive and rising. UEM’s investments in the country are primarily in electricity, gas and oil transmission; these are natural monopolies with clear regulation. Historically state-run and inefficient, there is potential for significant cost cutting at these companies. Balance sheets are solid and free cash flow generation strong, with a large percentage returned to shareholders as dividends. Although one-third of the increased exposure during FY16 was a result of share price performance, the manager still believes that valuations of Romanian companies remain attractive. Mexico – the country has a population of 136 million, with GDP per capita of $10,765. The manager considers the economic background stable, with GDP and inflation running around 2.5%. He highlights airports as attractive investments, with passenger numbers rising by more than 8% pa in recent years. Flight penetration is low and demand is increasing, led in part by the rising middle classes. There is a change in mind-set as passengers increasingly switch from buses to airplanes for domestic travel; in 2006 buses had a 93% market share, which declined to 91% in 2015, with air transportation increasing. The manager highlights the consistency of the investment strategy; he has no shortage of potential investment ideas; targeting 15% total return pa. He says that the biggest challenge over the last 12 months has been exchange rates such as the Brazilian real, which has been very volatile. From mid-June to late-September 2015 the real fell by more than 35% and between late-January to the end of June 2016 it rallied by more than 20%. The portfolio is not hedged due to the expense involved and the manager sees diversification as the best way to address currency volatility, rather than trying to predict forex movements.
davebowler: Edison; Valuation: Discount wider than historical averages UEM’s share price discount to cum-income NAV of 11.3% is wider than the 12-month average of 10.4% (range of 3.9% to 16.3%), and wider than the averages of the last three, five and 10 years of 8.2%, 7.9% and 8.3% respectively. UEM has a history of stable or rising dividends, compounding at an annual rate of 4.24% over the last five years. UEM’s current dividend yield of 3.3% compares favourably to the peer group average of 2.9%. Current portfolio positioning The portfolio typically holds c 60-90 names. At the end of May 2016, the top 10 positions accounted for 44.3%; this was a decrease in concentration from 52.8% at the end of May 2015 (see Exhibit 1). Reflecting the long-term nature of investments, nine companies are common to both periods. The new name in the top 10 list is Transgaz, a Romanian gas transmission company in its third regulatory cycle with a regulated rate of return of 7.7% until September 2017. There is a long tail of investments in the portfolio as initial position sizes are often small, either for liquidity reasons or to allow the manager to build confidence in the management of investee companies. Formerly the largest position in the portfolio, Malaysian IT services company MyEG is now the sixth largest holding, with the manager selling down as the shares are considered to be fully valued. The position in Malaysia Airport Holdings is now the largest single exposure. The manager expects good passenger growth at both its Malaysia-based airports and its now wholly owned investment in Sabiha Gökçen International Airport in Istanbul, Turkey. The fund typically invests/disinvests c £100m per annum. In FY16 £96.1m was invested and £130.5m realised as profits were taken on a number of Chinese H-share positions in the April 2015 market rally, although China remains the largest country exposure. Looking at sector exposure, over the last 12 months the largest increases have been in electricity (3.6pp), gas (2.8pp) and airports (2.3pp), while the largest decreases have been in satellites (3.3pp), other infrastructure (2.9pp) and toll roads (2.1pp). Dividend policy and record UEM pays dividends quarterly in September, December, March and June. Despite the focus on capital growth, the board aims for a flat or growing annual dividend; this has been achieved every year since fund inception in 2005. In FY16, the dividend of 6.4p was a 4.9% increase versus the prior year. Over the last five years, dividends have grown at a compound annual rate of 4.24%. UEM is able to distribute from both income and capital when necessary, which allows a smooth progression of the dividend even though income levels may fluctuate significantly. For the 12 months to 31 March 2016, total income rose by 45.9% to £21.3m. This was a yield on gross assets of 4.8% versus 3.0% in the previous year. Most of the increase was as a result of the special dividend distributed by Asia Satellite Telecom in H116. Higher income, coupled with lower costs, led to a revenue return of £17.5m in FY16 versus £10.6m in FY15, meaning that dividend payments were more than fully covered. Peer group comparison Exhibit 9 shows a comparison of UEM with AIC Global Emerging Markets sector trusts that have market caps greater than £50m. Given its focus on specific areas of the market, UEM cannot be compared directly with the peer group; however, its emerging market exposure provides some relevance to the comparison. UEM has outperformed the peer group average over one, three, five and 10 years, ranking second over three and five years and first over 10 years. In terms of risk-adjusted returns as measured by the Sharpe ratio, UEM is in line with the peer group average over one year and higher over three years. Its discount is narrower than average and it has one of the lowest ongoing charges, although a performance fee is payable. UEM’s 3.3% dividend yield ranks it third out of the five peers that pay a dividend.
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