Uruguay Mineral (SEE LSE:OMI) Share Discussion Threads

[sir beeksalot] 21/12/2009 19:10

pat - they are currently sitting on a fat paper loss with those fvx shares.

They'd better hope that the deal goes through. After all, if anyone has been selling their UGY shares early, they could be in for a nasty shock if the deal doesn't go through.

I hope it gets delayed for a month - that should should screw anyone selling on a T position.

[p@] 21/12/2009 15:46

When the bid goes through be prepared for EK et al to take their profits from FVX out of UGY.

[robson1974] 21/12/2009 11:31

you can quite obviously buy ludicrously cheaper via FVX, the wonder is the price has held up so well

[adam] 21/12/2009 11:22

I think this is a necessary end of year clear-out of stock. The price is plainly ludicrous, but it is impossible and not even desirable to persuade people otherwise. Happy Xmas & New year all.

[currypata kai] 21/12/2009 11:09

I guess yankee doodle dandy investors might be realising their losses ?

[kibes] 21/12/2009 10:09

nelson01 - 19 Dec'09 - 08:45 - 3283 of 3287


At 16p the market cap would be 7-8 million...with that much in the bank and total assets of around 15 million...I think it very doubtful.

Unfortunately AIM shares never trade at what they are worth. Sometimes they are wildly above and sometimes wildly below. But if they fall out of favour they almost all end up below 10p and stay there either until dead or until there is a sudden rush back up (which happens much less often). Personally I am getting hacked off with this share, if it breaks 28p I am out for good.

[skidaddle] 20/12/2009 11:56

""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""
GOLD vs. EVERY OTHER INVESTMENT

EVALUATING JUNIORS: Juniors should be evaluated like stocks were during the good ole dot.com days: If a company had earnings, there was always the traditional way of evaluation: But if a company was in their early dreaming stage and had no chance of being profitable in the near future, traders and investors would come up with all kinds of ridiculous ways to justify lofty prices and bid them up even more. That is actually quite common throughout life. The anticipation is always much greater than the realization, no matter how great the eventual realization actually turns out to be. BUY ON THE RUMOR SELL ON THE NEWS. That's why the worse a company was fundamentally, the better its stock price did in the short run. SELL INTO THE NEWS because no matter how great the news is, there is always a let down.

Although a few Gold analysts as well as every other analyst you see traipsing across your TV screens are already calling a top, it is mostly the same bunch who has been calling a top on every breakout since 2001 when Gold was selling for just $300. They will eventually call the top correctly, although I expect it will be a few years and a few thousand dollars from here. If you are tempted to listen, check their records. What have they been saying during the last few years? If they could not foresee either the top or the bottom of either Gold or the Stock market before, what has changed to suddenly have made them so smart now?
"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""

Taken from:

UNCOMMON COMMON SENSE
For People Who Think

Aubie Baltin CFA, CTA, CFP, PhD.


December 19, 2009

[skidaddle] 19/12/2009 10:50

With profits like that then they can either pay a large dividend or/and buy up shares.

Personally I think they can prove up reserves for continuation of production of around 60,000ozs a year for at least 6 years! If gold goes up even more, then I doubt that investors will worry about the life of the mine. They will just look at the PE for next year!

How many companies can project what profits they can make in 6 years time? It's hard enough to make any kind of profit at the moment for most of them. Look at the up and down cycle of oil. They buy oil shares when the oil price goes up and sell them when the oil price goes down. They don't ask what will the price of oil be in 6 years time. They don't look that far ahead.

[sithuk] 19/12/2009 10:30

nelson: for me, it's the sustainability of the profit without the FVX assets that would be the problem should the FVX vote fail.

[nelson01] 19/12/2009 08:48

I should have added and on target to make £15 million profit next year.

[nelson01] 19/12/2009 08:45

At 16p the market cap would be 7-8 million...with that much in the bank and total assets of around 15 million...I think it very doubtful.

[sithuk] 18/12/2009 18:49

For a 16p limit order to trigger, the FVX take-over vote is likely to have to fail. If it does why would you buy in at all?

[dogberry202000] 18/12/2009 18:29

Getting closer to 16p. My buy is in for this price by the first quarter of next year. Happy Christmas everybody.

[3mahal] 18/12/2009 10:44

I think Mr.robson is out of the stock for now with his current form.I won't be surprised if he wants to get this down lower to buy back AIMHO.LOL.:-)

[adam] 17/12/2009 17:21

robson

> increasing their resource to a potential 3m oz

is not the same as

> i called it a 'potential 3m oz resource'

The 1st implies it is a resource to be increased.

For the avoidance of doubt, this is what the company states


This preliminary assessment was made by Kinross Gold in 2007 and was estimated based on a total of 8,398 meters of reverse circulation drilling and diamond drilling. The potential quantity and grade of the potential mineral deposit is conceptual in nature as there has been insufficient exploration to define a mineral resource in accordance with disclosure guidelines in National Instrument 43-101 Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects and it is uncertain if further exploration will result in the target being delineated as a mineral resource.

[skidaddle] 17/12/2009 17:01

You can tell its Christmas can't you.

[stevea171] 17/12/2009 16:59

It costs nothing to be polite to other investors.

[robson1974] 17/12/2009 16:51

which is why i called it a 'potential 3m oz resource' numbnuts

[adam] 17/12/2009 16:32

The 3m oz cannot be called a resource yet as it is non NI43-101 compliant.
My understanding from the AGM was that cheap to prove up as near-surface widely disseminated and so wider spaced and cheap drill holes over an area required. So hopefully moot.

I think investors spooked by delays in closure of deal, weak gold price and lack of liquidity towards end of year.

[robson1974] 17/12/2009 16:05

robson1974 - 11 Dec'09 - 12:11 - 3234 of 3272 edit

no statement from company so far, that i count as a good thing, they should keep their mouths shut until the FVX deal is complete

1000 oz here or there in a production update is meaningless in the grand scheme of things compared with increasing their resource to a potential 3m oz

[adam] 17/12/2009 15:57

You can buy UGY at equivalent of 21p in Canada by buying FVX (assuming merger goes through). I managed to pick up a few at 17c. (i.e. 0.17 * / 0.456 = 37.2c = 21.5p). I have not sold equivalent UGY as might not go through, though i can't see why not as it is only FVX voting on this. So bar due-diligence issues what can scupper things? I think just weak gold price, lack of buyers and nervousness at the delays have caused this large disparity (50% difference!). 21p would be UGY trading at net working capital (i.e. $21m)

[stevea171] 17/12/2009 08:13

Kibes. Your post 3260: The company is not at the moment including Arenal Deeps in its production profile but this should occur from next year.

Uruguay Minerals San Gregorio area gold resources.

190,000 oz gold expected to be mined from open pits over the next 4 years.

In addition is the gold being proved up at Arenal Deeps for underground mining but excluded from mineable projections currently until more work has been completed. The mineable resource from Arenal Deeps is currently in the range of 107k to 224k oz gold based on the drilling to April but may be higher as a result of the further drilling that has been in progress since then. The NPV of this resource is $15.7 million at a gold price of $888.

Total mineable resource. It is likely that the open pit 190k oz will increase to a total of 300-400k oz gold or more when the latest drilling is factored in and the new resource for Arenal Deeps is produced in a couple of months (by March). This would give a mine life of approx. 5 years at an average 70k oz/year.

7/4/09. Initial Resource Estimate for Arenal Deeps.

Independent NI 43-101 compliant resource estimate by Golder Associates S.A. for Arenal Deeps:

224,000 oz gold from 3,164,000 tonnes at 2.21 g/t with cut off at 1.5 gm/ton gold.

4/8/09. Prefeasibility Results for Arenal Deeps.
The base case financial results of the PFS are: Gold Price $US 740 per ounce
Total capital $US 5.8 million
NPV at 10% $US 7.7 million
IRR 41%

Reserves used for the PFS estimated using open stope design, diluted and mine recovered are as follows:

Reserve Category Tonnes Au Grade (g/t) Contained Au Oz
Proven 140,278 1.86 8,389
Probable 1,576,184 1.95 98,817
Proven + Probable 1,716,462 1.94 107,206

The table below outlines the sensitivity of PFS economics to various price scenarios:

Gold Price (US$) NPV at 10% (US$M) IRR (%)
592 -0.3 8.8
666 3.9 26.9
740 7.7 41.3
814 11.8 57.4
888 15.7 71.7

Application of the PFS development schedule to the current status of the project results in the following timeline:

Activity Timing
Definition drilling July 2009 to December 2009
Resource modeling January/February 2010
Updated Resource estimate, NI 43-101 compliant by March 2010
Bankable Feasibility Study by June 2010
Commence Development July 2010
Open Stope production starts February 2011
Open Stope in full production May 2012

Opportunities to accelerate the development timetable are being considered as part of feasibility work.

[p3dr036] 16/12/2009 17:55

Thanks to both of you
P3