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UGY Uruguay Mineral (SEE LSE:OMI)

33.00
0.00 (0.00%)
28 Mar 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Uruguay Mineral (SEE LSE:OMI) LSE:UGY London Ordinary Share CA9169091043 COM SHS NPV
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 33.00 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
0 0 N/A 0

Uruguay Mineral (SEE LSE:OMI) Share Discussion Threads

Showing 3251 to 3274 of 3475 messages
Chat Pages: 139  138  137  136  135  134  133  132  131  130  129  128  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
01/12/2009
22:05
anisha. The volume on the Toronto Venture Exchange is mostly much lower than here for UME and I believe they don't have MM's. It is a matched trades system there I think.

UME prices are all over the place on TSX-V partly because of these factors and they take the closing price as the last trade price not the mid as with London. So if the last trade is a buy the closing price for UME may show a gain and conversely if the last trade was a sell, a fall.

The 52c closing price yesterday I think you will find was due to one trade in the whole day of a few hundred shares (a sell) put through just before close. Obviously someone not interested in getting value or just having a laugh ... !!

stevea171
01/12/2009
21:17
hi

any reasom why this is showing 19% fall to 52c on stockhouse and not in uk

anisha
01/12/2009
19:03
Gold $1200. Another milestone today. UGY bottom line profits enhanced which will be recognised in valuations sooner or later ... !

"Another point to note is that this last surge in gold is to a certain extent unconfirmed by the gold stocks and by silver. Although it is up 65% year-on-year, silver, at $18.80, is still some 11% off its high of $21 in March 2008. The gold stocks are also a few points off their March 2008 highs (and they under performed in that move), while gold is some 20% higher. Goldcorp, for example, is seen by many as the market leader, yet it has only marginally taken out its September high. This divergence creates ambivalence in me. On one hand, it suggests that gold's move is unconfirmed and thus urges caution. On the other hand, it makes me want to buy more gold stocks and silver as they have more potential upside, just playing catch-up.

... longer term, we are going a lot higher. And we remain on course – in fact we are ahead of schedule – for $1,400 by next spring."

stevea171
01/12/2009
12:04
interesting discussion on gold on ft alphaville now
robson1974
01/12/2009
11:32
robson, thanks.
thx1138
01/12/2009
11:05
1) there is an arbitrage - you can buy as many FVX as you like and when they convert into UME you can sell for a profit, so it makes sense to sell UGY/UME and buy FVX

2) still uncertainty about whether FVX will approve deal on December 11th, i imagine with arb buying of FVX this should be a formality but still what arbs would term as 'deal-break' risk

3) whilst the deal is in process i understand brokers can not publish research/recommendations and thus there is no broking of the 'story' going on despite the gold profit per ounce going up 100% since the deal was first announced

robson1974
01/12/2009
11:01
robson, why do you believe the price remains depressed here, genuine question?
thx1138
01/12/2009
08:56
adam are you being deliberately thick? (i suspect you are so should point out this was actually a rhetorical question)

the minesite article pointed out the production slippages were minor whilst the cash profit per oz is up about 200%

Original cash profit ($850 - $700) = $150
Current cash profit ($1150 - $700) = $450

if there is a 'profit warning' it will be in an upward direction

robson1974
01/12/2009
08:52
gold flying today
drago
30/11/2009
18:27
adam. Yes, the flooding will have had some (likely minor) impact on mining but it's normal for mills to have a decent stockpile of ore so I don't see the mill being affected greatly by the weather. We will see.

I am hopeful they can knock out more than 60k oz for the full year (70k last year and some references to exceeding 60k this year) but first they need to deliver on 15k/quarter (smoothed) before we can think about exceeding the 60k target.

They still need to catch up the oz from Q1 which was expected to be low because of overburden removal, etc.

stevea171
30/11/2009
17:49
Steve - have you accounted for days lost to rain/flooding? I am expecting the quarter to disappoint. Minesite article implied can catch up ounces later, but presumably costs incurred during lost days with idle workforce non recoverable.
adam
30/11/2009
09:51
Thanks maxi. Also thanks to you for the charts etc on the other thread.

robson. There has been a trading update giving production output and cash position following every quarter for at least the last 4 quarters. eg Last year the trading update came out on 5/12 for the November quarter which was pretty slick work! Full details expected in January as usual.

Drilling report could come any time and yes, Fortune Valley result of EGM, December.

UGY needs to start hitting some forecast production numbers and with a favourable gold price the share price should take care of itself!

stevea171
30/11/2009
08:32
Steve not sure there will be any trading update in December although they certainly should update on the FVX transaction and could append a trading update to that. I've got no idea whether anyone will look at these juniors on earnings metrics or resource metrics but either way you can see this being substantially higher one year out.

Based on 3m oz being 'proved up' the Market Cap of UGY should be approximately $50 x 3m = $150m / £90m so about 140p/share ?

robson1974
30/11/2009
01:05
Great post stevea171, thanks. Not the usual 'rampy' nonsense you sometimes get on here, but well reasoned out.

In the short term however, I do think the market is going to tank big time taking everything down with it, but if it does, this should become one of those 'once in a lifetime opportunities', more so as Chile developements come to fruition, potentially at the height of a gold bull. ;-)

maximoney1
29/11/2009
18:20
No takers to my question?
Here are my calculations based on current company guidance, POG, etc.

Uruguay Minerals (Orosur?).
09/10 Full year actuals/estimates:

Q1 actuals:
Production: 13,173 oz
Sale price: Av $912
Revenue gold: $12,014,000
Silver credit: $484,000
Total revenue: $12,498,000

Q1 result: loss ($2.2 million)

Q2 estimate:
Production: 15,000 oz giving 28,200 oz for H1 (full year estimate 60,000)
Sale prices: Sept $1000, Oct $1050, Nov $1100, av $1050
Revenue gold: $15,750,000
Silver credit: $500,000
Total revenue: $16,250,000 (increase of $3.75 million cf Q1)

Cash cost: $750
Gross profit: 15,000 oz x $300 = $4.5 million
Amortisation and depreciation: $2.5 million/qtr ($10 million full year estimate)
Capex: $2.3 million ($1.7 million exploration as Q1, $0.6 million other)
Cash balance: $10.3 million (Q1: $8.1 million)

Result Q2: profit of c. $1.6 million, based on implied charges/costs Q1. To be announced January.
Half 1 result: (loss) $0.6 million

The good news is that after 6 quarters of losses, Q4 07/08, Q1-Q4 08/09, Q1 09/10 UGY should make a profit in the current quarter but probably not enough to bring H1 into profit after the $2.2 million loss in Q1. Expect a small H1 loss, followed by a decent profit for the full year if production and cost targets are met or near met and gold stays above $1050.

Q3 result:
Production: 15,800 oz
Sale price: Av $1100
Revenue gold: $17,380,000

Q4 result:
Production: 16,000 oz
Sale price: Av $1150
Revenue gold: $18,400,000

Full year:
Gold sales: $63.55 million
Silver credits: $2 million
Royalties and taxes: ($2 million)
Operating expenses: ($44 million)
Amort. & Depreciation: ($10 million)
s/t: $9.5 million

less capex write down Provision: ($1.0 million) for exploration.
plus recoveries (sale of Montevideo office): $2.2 million
General and Admin: ($3.0 million)

Income before tax: $7.7 million
Tax: nil due to tax credits from past losses.

Estimated 2009/10 profit: $7.7 million (Half 2: profit c. $8.3 million)

Shares in issue: 48.7 + 16.9 (Fortune Valley) = 65.6 million
Shares in issue (av): 57 million
Earnings/share: 13c (8p)
Share price: 35p
Price/earnings ratio: 4.4

If share price rose x 4 to 140p, forward P/E rating would increase to 17-18 which would bring it more in line with its peers in the Junior gold producers sector.

Estimated 2010/11:
Profit: $12.2 million (60k oz production, $1125 av gold price)
Earnings/share: 18c (11p)
Price/earnings ratio: 3.2

Gold Junior sector P/E: average for a small-cap producer is 27 for CY2009 and 19.9 for CY2010 (Kitco).

stevea171
29/11/2009
15:16
Worth bearing in mind if gold dips over the next week.
ragpicker
29/11/2009
12:00
What production and cash numbers are everyone expecting for Q2 to be announced in about 10 days time (approx 9th December)?
stevea171
29/11/2009
11:45
Annual saving from resignation of George Schroer, VP Exploration:
Salary .. $198,000
Benefits. $44,000
Total ... $242,000

stevea171
29/11/2009
10:54
dogberry was talking gold to $650 when it was under a $1000.

The guys an idiot.

skidaddle
28/11/2009
22:37
here boy here boy.... doggy

so what is a good stock.


all ears

wimbled
28/11/2009
21:00
This is "a bad stock", too. 14p by March? COTS thinks so.
dogberry202000
27/11/2009
20:23
Ovoca Gold THAT IS A BAD STOCK..
shujja
27/11/2009
17:19
HP. A 45% Russian shareholding puts me off, but think i may have a small punt anyway. Another trading near cash is ITM. m/cap £19m. Seems to have large holdings with directors or former directors, so hopefully won't run it into the ground. Something to do with Hydrogen fuel cells and polymers. Last year burnt £5m in cash with no revenue.
adam
27/11/2009
12:41
Adam
I think I would have expected a tax liability to show up in the interims given how much the PolyMetal shares have appreciated.
Directors own about 45%. The director-speak in the accounts sounds very shareholder friendly.
Not aware of what happened at TSG.

hugepants
Chat Pages: 139  138  137  136  135  134  133  132  131  130  129  128  Older

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