Uramin Share Discussion Threads

[papillon] 15/6/2007 08:05

Bit of interest 1st thing. Means news soon?

[marnewton] 15/6/2007 06:27

Thanks SJM;@)

[sir josephs mate] 15/6/2007 05:55

Nuclear rivals battle for control of UraMin
By Katherine Griffiths
Last Updated: 3:15am BST 15/06/2007



Uranium miner UraMin is the subject of a bidding battle between rival nuclear companies.

Shares in UraMin rose 6p yesterday to 377p after France's Areva, the world's largest nuclear reactor maker, said it was in talks with the Aim-listed company.

UraMin is also thought to be talking to China National Nuclear Corporation, which oversees the country's civilian and military nuclear programmes.

UraMin operates primarily in Namibia and South Africa, and has uranium development joint ventures in Canada. It also has three uranium projects that are due to commence production by the end of 2009.

Interest in uranium has soared in recent months after leading industrial powers such as the UK and US set out a plan for major nuclear building programmes, which will require a large increase in uranium supply.

UraMin said it was at a "very advanced stage" of discussions with a potential buyer of the company. "There are a number of companies that have approached us, and we are dealing with one very seriously," UraMin said.

Traders believe it could attract an offer of 400p or more.

Areva said: "We confirm we are discussing with UraMin, as well as some other junior companies. We assume that they are discussing with other potential partners."

Meanwhile, speculation is rising that Areva, which is owned by the French state, will float on the stock market later this year. The move is being watched carefully by utility companies, which see the intended float as an opportunity to take a stake in Areva.

[netsdeal] 15/6/2007 00:37

guys, don't know if the Mining Journal will shed some light on the market's thinking (June 14 Bloomberg):

[papillon] 14/6/2007 22:43

simon, it has been mentioned in the press that Areva could have a partner. However you are incorrect to say that Areva has no interest in mining and exploration since Areva is split into 2 Divisions; Areva NP (construction of power stations etc) and Areva NC (mining of U3O8 etc through to spent fuel recycling). In fact Areva NC is the 3rd biggest producer of yellowcake in the world and plans to double production by 2012!! It has JV mines in Niger, Kazakstan and Canada ( has a JV with Cameco for the ill fated Cigar Lake mine). It also has a worldwide exploration programme that dwarfs that of UMN!! Hence there is no reason why Areva NC couldn't just absorb the smaller UMN into its NC Division.

[simonbroughton] 14/6/2007 21:57

I would not be surprised if GLA are taking an active role in the background as I'm sure they will be keen to find a buyer for their stake. My impression is that Areva are keen on the resource but not on the exploration and mining of it so I think there could be at least one more player involved which we don't know about yet. This is all pure conjecture but I don't think this is going to be a straightforward take over by Areva in the next few days.

[gardenarc] 14/6/2007 20:39

Interesting post papillon thanks.

[papillon] 14/6/2007 19:29

The Swedish investor with his own web site www.loparn.com (its in English as well as Swedish) has calculated a 2007 target price of C$12.65 for UMN. His analysis is very detailed and mathmatically rigorous. I think his analysis makes sense and is suitably cautious. He also reckons that any bid for UMN below C$11 would be a steal. A lot of posters on the advfn bb's like giving price targets but rarely, if ever, give the details, calculations, assumptions and figures necessary to back up their target. C$12.65 equates to £6 per share and C$11 equates to £5.22 per share. I was using loparn's figures when I said earlier today that UMN is currently worth at least £5 per share. Its possible that the Directors could accept a bid lower than £5 per share because they have been more cautious in their assumptions about the future earnings of UMN. After all what UMN will be earning in 2011, when in full production at Trekkopje, is dependent on a number of variables. What value you ascribe to those variables in 2011 affects your current value of UMN. Areva will know what they think UMN is worth to them, but they will obviously try to obtain a bargain and pick UMN up at a cheaper price. If UMN is as desirable as the majority of investors on this bb think then its possible that another bidder(s) might top any bid by Areva. We are not privy to the negotiations and can only guess at the final outcome.

[utwiq] 14/6/2007 17:50

True enough; and the fact that Areva (apparently) are talking openly about UMN being in talks with multiple parties may suggest an auction is a very real possibility. I have to say I thought the same thing with EMC and was disappointed at the price offered by SXR. We should see soon enough I guess, and even a miserly offer - say £4.00 (so a 20% premium to pre-announcement) - would underpin the share price. Well no, lift the share price and then put a high floor under it. So - famous last words (and full disclosure: I bought into GLA, so my holding is indirect and I'd like a quick cash exit) - these shares look fairly low risk!

[nielsc] 14/6/2007 17:46

utwiq,

That seem to make sence, but as you have said yourself "Areva or the Chinese are not going to open with a bid 50% higher than the previous price". So with two players an auction isn't so out of the question.

Something in range you gave is what is keeping me holding these for the time being.

Cheers,
Niels

[utwiq] 14/6/2007 16:59

When takeover talks were announced the price was £3.30 and you think the bid is going to come in at £5.00? That seems to me to be quite unlikely. Areva or the Chinese are not going to open with a bid 50% higher than the previous price. If management agree to the bid, then it might be in the £4.30-£4.50 range. And that'd be great. The only way we are likely to see over £5.00 is if an auction breaks out. And there is no sign of that just yet.

[sagem] 14/6/2007 16:54

Paddywak...Yes I totally agree with you, at last somebody here is talking sensibily...the share price will be a minimum of £5.00 the company is well worth that with all their potential plus being producers of Uranium in 2008.

[paddywak1967] 14/6/2007 16:17

Why would they sell for less than it's currently worth? The share price has risen consistantly, RNS's have all been good and the company seems to be doing fine as it is. On top of this they have a product in demand and several suitors showing interest. This will go for a premium believe me! Otherwise why would the directors even entertain the idea of selling.

[rumblinged] 14/6/2007 16:16

Interesting rns just out:
"The Rea Project consists of a large exploration package (446,330 acres) covering the under explored western margin of the Athabasca basin in northeastern Alberta. The project surrounds the high-grade Maybelle River deposit held by AREVA."

[papillon] 14/6/2007 16:13

News update on JV with DRA but not the news we were expecting. I bet SAGEM must be getting impatient?

[papillon] 14/6/2007 16:08

I feel UMN is currently worth between £5-£6, but it seems that the Directors are keen to sell up and count up their profit (many millions) in CASH so I feel it will probably go for less, unless we get more than one bidder.

[gbb483] 14/6/2007 16:04

Still just noise compared to movement in the previous weeks.

[liam1om] 14/6/2007 15:50

Possibly, quite a different seen from 11am this morning.

[paddywak1967] 14/6/2007 15:46

This is beginning to move quite quickly now. Wonder if someone knows something?

[pec2004] 14/6/2007 14:38

A few pence up is probably just due to Canada opening.

[mad jack mcmad] 14/6/2007 14:38

News? Spike up suggests something.

[sagem] 14/6/2007 14:16

TAKEN FROM....Guardian Unlimited
Lower down the market uranium producer UraMin dipped 6p to 371p awaiting bid developments. French nuclear group Areva has admitted it is in talks with the company. Traders are hoping for a 400p-plus offer for each UraMin share.

[netsdeal] 14/6/2007 13:29

pap, sorry you didn't get back in TMC, after i mentioned that TheShareWeekly tipped it again, but take comfort in that VEL has steadily gone up 60% since TheShareWeekly tipped it just a couple of weeks ago... more than reaching my first target.

hope UMN will eventually receive a cash offer (no paper, pls)

[1967] 14/6/2007 13:21

The deal on ZRL with ZNI is something like this from fading memory.

ZRL still own 34 million shares in ZNI.
On top of that.
ZRL still own 40+ % of everything that they gave ZNI & ZNI are paying for all the exploration though ZNI can claim more by spending more.
ZRL receive anything else apart from any Uranium found.
Stand to be corrected

Sorry to be off the UMN topic.
I am a holder of both & GLA.

[netsdeal] 14/6/2007 13:19

Areva has a stake in ASX:SMM, which rejected ASX:PDN's offer and since then share price has dropped from A$6 to 3.5. Hope this won't happen to UMN; otherwise, it's possible to test 265. to protect profit, i've just upped my stop 60p higher to 355, but still hoping it can reach my target of 405p.