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Upstream LSE:UPS London Ordinary Share KYG7393S1012 ORD 0.25P (DI)
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  +0.00p +0.00% 1.625p 0.00p 0.00p - - - 0 06:30:09
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6.3 0.4 21.9 0.1 2.23

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20/7/201716:18SHARES STRONGLY UP during July 2017450
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DateSubject
13/7/2017
23:28
master rsi: Are these dog shares turnaround candidates? - David Brenchley | Thu, 13th July 2017 - 12:59 It's been a tough week for a number of listed companies, but troubled construction services provider Carillion (CLLN) sticks out like a sore thumb. And the firm, which looks a dead-cert for demotion from the FTSE 250 index, is by no means out of the woods. Pearson (PSON) has had a stinker, too, and it's being tipped to go even lower. Carillion's profits warning has been long anticipated by the army of hedge funds who'd taken out short positions on the stock since its failed takeover bid for competitor Balfour Beatty (BBY) three years ago. Now, the heavily-indebted firm needs a Balfour-like turnaround to repair its reputation. The warning came Monday – and the devastation for shareholders must was extreme by any standards. Its share price fell three days running and is currently two-thirds below Friday's closing price of 192p. They were worth as little as 51p Thursday. A dive at education firm Pearson was less dramatic, but its shares are down 10% since Monday when it announced the sale of a 22% stake in publisher Penguin Random House (PRH) to Germany's Bertelsmann for around $1 billion (£780 million). The dividend is cut again, too. An announcement back in October 2015 by the former Financial Times owner was the first of many profit warnings that has seen the price sink to 623p. It peaked at 1,517p back in late March 2015, so has lost almost two-thirds of its market value in the intervening two years. That's pretty poor, but illustrates how savage and swift Carillion's demise has been. And it may not be over for either of these dogs. While there's no telling where Carillion's shares will end up – a rights issue looks nailed on – broker Liberum is calling Pearson sharply lower. chart1 While Pearson aims for dividend cover in excess of 2 times, excluding the contribution of the PRH stake, appears prudent, it's no gone down well with investors. Analyst Ian Whittaker says a predicted full-year payout of 16-17p is two-thirds less than 2016's 52p. "Since this would give just over a 2% dividend yield, that is likely to mean the stock loses its appeal to income funds, which held it because of its formal dividend yield," Whittaker says. "That could put pressure on the stock moving forwards." Selling the PRH stake does not solve the underlying issues the firm faces, either; they sit within its US higher education business, which makes up around one-third of profits currently. That will be higher after the PRH disposal, as well as any sale of its US K-12 publishing business. "Structural problems effectively driven by students refusing in greater numbers to pay very high prices for materials will put continued pressure on what has historically been a very high margin business for Pearson," adds Whittaker. His longstanding price target of 360p implies a further fall of 40% for Pearson shares. Others are less aggressive, but still see plenty of downside. Panmure Gordon's Jonathan Helliwell's new forecast for 2017 earnings per share (EPS) of 44p gives a price/earnings (PE) ratio of 14 times, which looks expensive, "given the depth of the structural, regulatory, and cyclical challenges the group continues to face in its core education markets". He slashed his target price by a quid to 525p and moved from a 'hold' rating to 'sell'. This would "offer a less demanding valuation of around 12 times near-term EPS." Carillion is a different beast, despite its solitary warning. This one has been highly anticipated in many circles and it was no surprise. It has been one of the most-shorted UK stock for years. After this week's crash, some of those short positions have been trimmed, though it remains the most-shorted FTSE 350 share. A 10% jump today smells of more short positions being covered. chart2 We speculated on Monday that Carillion would need a rights issue to tackle its burdensome debt pile and write-downs. Today, Jefferies analyst Sam Cullen agrees, telling The Guardian he sees "no future for Carillion without a rights issue of at least £500 million", reasoning it will find it hard to win further work with the balance sheet in its current state. Average net debt stands at between £850 million and £900 million. Include the meaty pension deficit of £587 million and total leverage for Carillion is almost £1.5 billion – and that's before considering its £420 million reverse factoring (supply chain financing), calculates broker UBS. Work has already begun on sorting its balance sheet, but it will be a huge struggle. A review will be presented with first-half results in September and UBS's Gregor Kuglitsch thinks the options include raising fresh equity, asking creditors to convert some of their debt into equity, asset disposals, or a combination of all three. How much further can the shares fall? Who knows. UBS's initial target of 78p – down from its previous 185p – has been left in the dust, while Liberum's is under review. New interim CEO Keith Cochrane is a top exec and oversaw a 142% rise in Weir Group's (WEIR) share price during his seven years in charge. But the former Stagecoach (SGC) boss has his work cut out here. We've got two months to wait until we hear his first report as Carillion chief. Until then, buckle up!
30/6/2017
12:50
master rsi: MIDDAY MARKET REPORT London shares on track for poor week It was a tough week for equity investors as shares in the UK's largest quoted companies struggled once more. The FTSE 100 nudged 20.4 points up to 7,348, meaning the index had fallen 0.7% in total since last Friday's close (23 June). There was no major corporate news among the blue chip stocks, although broader factors contributed to weakness in utility, oil and banks on the last day of the trading week. United Utilities (UU.) was down 2% to 879.7p; Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB) had fallen 0.6% to £20.81 and HSBC (HSBC) retreated 0.2% to £713.7p. Among the risers were healthcare firms Mediclinic (MDC) and ConvaTec (CTEC), up 1.9% to 747.5p and 1.5% to 319.4p, respectively. In other news, the UK economy grew by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2017, as per previous expectations. Brent crude oil increased 0.7% to $47.75 per barrel. Copper and gold were broadly flat at $5,908 per tonne and $1,241 per ounce. SMALL CAPS RISERS AND FALLERS Gamers were keen to get their hands on the Nintendo Switch console earlier this year, said Game Digital (GAME) but it wasn't able to sell enough to avoid a profit warning. Nearly a third of the company's valuation was wiped out after it said earnings were below expectations, blaming insufficient supply of Switch units and ongoing softness in Xbox and PlayStation markets. Mobile beacons technology firm Proxama (PROX) said it would try and raise at least £3.1m via issuing new shares at a 79.3% discount to last night's close price. That's its working capital requirement for the next 12 months. Its share price collapsed 62% to 0.06p. Nanoco (NANO) received its first commercial order from Wah Hong Industrial, which is buying its cadmium-free quantum dots that can be used in many applications such as medical imaging. Investors were excited by the breakthrough as the stock soared 34.2% to 43.6p. Newspaper published Trinity Mirror (TNI) gained 5.7% to 100.3p on an optimistic trading statement that forecasted a better performance in the second half of its financial year. Cyber security firm ECSC (ECSC) warned of a delay in revenue growth that would affect its 2017 results, causing the share price to shed 32.2% to 305p. San Leon Energy (SLE) jumped 13.2% to 33p after receiving a takeover offer from China Great United Petroleum Holdings. Elsewhere, a contract win at Sabien Technology (SNT) worth £287,750 sparked a 20% share price rally to 1.5p.
28/6/2017
22:58
master rsi: CLOSING MARKET REPORT Underperforming oil and utility stocks keep FTSE in the red The FTSE 100 remained in negative territory as weakness in oil firms and utilities offset gains in the mining sector. Despite a recovery in the price of Brent crude oil, which rose 1% to $47 per barrel, Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB) and BP (BP.) were approximately 0.5% and 1% down to £21.13 and 455.4p, respectively. The oil giants are among the biggest in terms of market cap, hence why their share price movements have such a major influence on the market cap-weighted FTSE 100 index, today down 0.6% to 7,385. Utility companies National Grid (NG.) and Severn Trent (SVT) also contributed to the underwhelming index performance. National Grid was down 1.3% to 971.6p and Severn Trent fell 0.9% to £22.43. Copper and gold nudged 0.2% to $5,842 per tonne and $1,248 per ounce. UK house price growth regained momentum in June, according to Nationwide's latest data. Annual house price growth was up to 3.1%, which was reassuring following a decline in prices over the last three months. OVERSEAS MARKETS The Dow Jones got off to a decent start, up 0.6% to 21,429, following reassuring comments from US central bankers last night. Financial stocks including JP Morgan and American Express were particularly in demand. Yesterday's tech-sell off in the Nasdaq index faded way and the index was back in positive territory, up 0.6% to 6,184. FTSE 100 RISERS AND FALLERS In UK-listed corporate news, Bunzl (BNZL) was among the top blue-chip performers after buying three new businesses in Spain and Canada. The share price sparked 1.5% to £23.43, helped by news that trading was in line with expectations. An 'outperform' recommendation for broadband provider BT (BT.A) from investment bank Macquarie sparked a 1.9% jump in the stock to 294p. FTSE 250 RISERS AND FALLERS Elsewhere, broker Cenkos downgraded its recommendation to 'hold' for Sophos (SOPH), dragging the share price 5.9% lower to 443p. Investors were spooked after Societe Generale sold its remaining 2.8 million shares in TBC Bank (TBC), which prompted a 4.9% decline in the stock to £15.52. William Hill (WMH) gained 1.5% to 254.4p after the US Supreme Court announced yesterday it would hear arguments on whether to allow sports betting in New Jersey and, by extension, elsewhere in the US. According to media reports, William Hill could benefit as it is the leading land-based sports betting operator in Nevada. Transport operator Stagecoach (SGC) remained cautious on revenue trends and operating profit in its bus and rail divisions in the UK. Operating profit in the UK bus division fell 11.8% to £121.1m in the year to 29 April 2017. Over the same period, UK rail performed worse as operating profit more than halved to £31m. The shares slumped 6.2% to 191p. Petra Diamonds (PDL) was also the bearer of bad news with a profit warning. The diamond miner warned that revenue was anticipated to be approximately 8% to 9% below expectations, triggering a 8.7% drop in the share price to 103.5p. In the retail sector, Dixons Carphone (DC.) ticked 0.7% lower to 293.7p with a robust set of full year results. It reported a 10% jump in headline pre-tax profit to £501m in the year to 29 April 2017. Beleaguered oil producer Tullow Oil (TLW) was up 1.5% at 154p after it flagged 'tough market conditions'. SMALL CAP RISERS AND FALLERS Among the small caps, toiletries manufacturer Creightons (CRL) was a clear winner thanks to a 171% surge in operating profit to approximately £1.5m in the year to 31 March 2017. Shares in the company soared 28.9% to 31.2p. Disappointing like-for-like sales at sausage seller Crawshaw (CRAW) failed to excite the market as the stock plummeted 13.8% to 25p. The company reported a 4.5% decrease in like-for-like sales in the 20 weeks to 18 June as it struggled with a challenging consumer environment.
26/6/2017
10:19
master rsi: Top 15 stocks since Brexit vote - By David Brenchley | Fri, 23rd June 2017 - 16:32 A year is a long time both in politics and the City, and it certainly has been an eventful 12 months since Britain voted to leave the European Union on 23 June 2016. Yes, share prices plummeted in the aftermath, but then followed one of the most incredible rallies in stockmarket history. We now have a new prime minister, albeit with a greatly reduced majority, and negotiations around our withdrawal from the EU are underway. It's early days, but time taken for Theresa May to agree a deal with the Democratic Unionists is hardly comforting. European elections went rather more smoothly, although across the Atlantic Donald Trump got elected to the White House - the real Big Orange also upset the odds to win the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot this week. Through all this, stockmarkets worldwide have been buoyant. Initially, the FTSE 100 (UKX) slumped 9% on the Brexit decision, but by the following Wednesday had fully recovered losses. In fact, the blue-chip index - at 7,443 at time of writing - is over 17% higher than it was on 23 June last year, before we knew the result, which most expected to go to the 'Remain' camp. Thank a slump in sterling from $1.50 to a 30-year low near $1.19 for that. The more domestically oriented FTSE 250, on the other hand, fell harder – down 14% by 27 June as a weaker pound increases import costs – and took longer to recover. However, it was back at pre-referendum levels by 5 August, and it continued to fly. It's trading near record highs now and is up 14% from the close 12 months ago. As we mark the anniversary of the 'Leave' vote, we thought it would be interesting to look at the best-performing stocks since close of play on 23 June 2016. Most of the best performers are now trading at record or multi-year share price highs, showing the initial fall across the board was hideously overdone. Some sectoral themes emerged, with miners clear winners. Glencore (GLEN) (up 84%), Ferrexpo (FXPO) (490%) and SolGold (SOLG) (1,200%) have been stunning performers on the FTSE 100, FTSE 250 and AIM All-Share respectively, while Antofagasta (ANTO) (76%), KAZ Minerals (KAZ) (240%) and Bellzone (BZM) (1,000%) are close behind. By the Monday after the vote, Glencore had slipped 12%, but was a bottom for the stock and it went on to hit a two-and-a-half-year high in February. It's drifted since, but broker Investec reckons it can get back above 350p, tipping it to go 26% higher from here. Best-performing FTSE 100 shares since Brexit vote Rank Company Ticker Market cap (£bn) Price (p) Performance (%) Forward PE Forward yield 1 Glencore GLEN 40 282 84 11.7 5.3 2 G4S GFS 5.1 332 84 N/A N/A 3 Antofagasta ANTO 7.5 774 76 20.5 1.8 4 Coca Cola HBC CCH 8.6 2,397 70 26.1 1.7 5 Burberry BRBY 7.6 1,764 59 22.9 2.3 Best-performing FTSE 250 shares since Brexit vote Rank Company Ticker Market cap (£bn) Price (p) Performance (%) Forward PE Forward yield (%) 1 Ferrexpo FXPO 1.0 186 490 4 3.9 2 KAZ Minerals KAZ 2.1 475 240 9.4 N/A 3 Melrose Industries MRO 4.9 261 230 28.1 1.5 4 Coats Group COA 1.0 77.6 200 16.9 1.4 5 Sophos Group SOPH 2.1 462 160 N/A 0.9 Best-performing AIM shares since Brexit vote Rank Company Ticker Market cap (£m) Price (p) Performance (%) 1 SolGold SOLG 558 39 1,200 2 Bellzone Mining BZM 28 2.05 1,000 3 Monchhichi MCC 17 33 880 4 Echo Energy ECHO 57 16.5 870 5 EVR Holdings EVRH 88 9.12 790 Source: Sharepad (23/06/2016-22/06/2017) At the opposite end of the scale, financial services firms are among the worst performers, while more recently the general retailers have had a tough time of it due to the culmination of rising inflation and weak wage growth affecting retail sales. DFS Furniture (DFS) has already crashed after warning on profits. DFS's furniture-selling peer Dunelm (DNLM) (-37%) has had a nightmare, though, while Pets at Home (PETS) is down 41% and high-street bellwether Next (NXT) the second worst-performing blue chip, down 28%. Only BT (BT.A) at -36% beats it. Financial services firms have struggled, with the Neil Woodford backed Allied Minds (ALM) down 62% and spreadbetter CMC Markets (CMCX) currently 45% below its pre-referendum price. One sector that has a noted diversion in performance is the support services sector. G4S (GFS) has recovered from a shocking 2015 to post gains of 84% since the referendum, putting it level with Glencore as the best FTSE 100 performer. Rentokil Initial (RTO), Ashtead (AHT) and Electrocomponents (ECM) just miss out on the top five in their respective indices. And analysts at Barclays thinks there will be even more divergence from the sector peers' performance in the coming weeks and months as the outcome of the general election hits each in different ways. G4S is much less sensitive to political oscillations than the likes of Capita, Serco (SRP) and Mitie (MTO), the broker says. G4S initially plummeted 20% on the Brexit result, but finished on the Friday just 4% down. It's more than recovered since, and sits at a 21st century high. On the other hand, it's a well-documented fact that another Woodford favourite, Capita (CPI), has struggled (-36%) since the referendum. However, it would have been much worse for the outsourcer had it not staged a recovery from December's 11-year low. While Barclays worries about Capita's vulnerability to political uncertainty - half its revenues are derived from the UK - it's reversed incredibly since the profits warning and is now two-thirds higher at a shade under £7. As Brexit negotiations begin and Theresa May clings to power, and as investors get jittery over generous stock valuations, it'll be interesting to see how many of these winners hang onto gains. As always, quality will always shine through.
02/5/2017
09:35
master rsi: LONDON HIGHLIGHTS Nighthawk (HAWK) lost 10% to 0.9p on news it had notified Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) that the company was not in compliance with the minimum production requirement covenant for the month of April 2017. CBA had agreed a waiver to this breach. Ortac Resources (OTC), down 10% to 3.38p, has raised £2m gross via a placing of 66.67m new shares at 3p each to fund the acquisition of a $2m convertible loan note (CLN) issued by Casa Mining Ltd. Sphere Medical (SPHR), up 6.12% to 6.5p, said it was very pleased with the market reaction to Proxima 4 and encouraged by the early response from customers. "We look forward to building on this through 2017," said CEO Wolfgang Rencken. InnovaDerma (IDP), up 5.97% to 222p, has acquired the entire share capital of Ergon Medical Ltd. InnovaDerma said Ergon owned the intellectual property rights of Prolong, the world's only medical device cleared by the US FDA for premature ejaculation. Trinity Exploration & Production (TRIN), up 4.67% to 14.13p, has materially reduced its FY pretax loss to $9.7m, from a loss of $30.9m, as it completed balance sheet restructuring and was now focused on growing its reserves and production levels. Rose Petroleum (ROSE), down 4% to 0.12p, has issued an update on the permitting process for its proposed 3D seismic survey in the Paradox Basin, Utah. It had now amended the shoot design and resubmitted the documents to the Bureau of Land Management for review. Access Intelligence (ACC), up 3.03% to 4.25p, said its recurring revenues from continuing operations increased 39% to £8.8m in 2016. Operating loss from continuing operations before impairments was £3m, from a loss of £1.5m. Other stocks in the news included Just Eat (JE.), NMC Health (NMC), Range Resources (RRL), Oakley Capital Investments Ltd (OCL), Cambium Global Timberland (TREE), Bluejay Mining (JAY), Palace Capital (PCA), Civitas Social Housing (CSH), HICL Infrastructure Company (HICL), EU Supply (EUSP), Stratmin Global (STGR) and Digital Barriers (DGB). At 8:52am: (LON:BP.) BP PLC share price was +9.23p at 451.73p (LON:CAPD) Capital Drilling Ltd share price was +7.5p at 57.5p (LON:PURE) PureCircle Ltd share price was -32p at 298p (LON:PVG) Premier Veterinary Group PLC share price was -55.38p at 185p (LON:UKX) share price was +48.81p at 7252.75p
19/4/2017
22:36
master rsi: Excitement brewing at AIM star Thalassa - By Lee Wild | Wed, 19th April 2017 - 17:13 Just before Christmas we covered a small AIM-listed company providing marine services to big oil companies. Its share price had just shot up to a five-month high, but there was confidence another 38% was there for the taking. Less than six weeks later, target was achieved, but things are happening again and the shares are on the move. Shares in Thalassa (THAL) suffered harsh treatment last week, despite beating house broker full-year results estimates at the pre-tax level. Better gross margin performance helped generate adjusted pre-tax profit of $3.6 million, but the shares still fell to a three-month low. However, having upgraded from 80p in January and 65p the month before, John Cummins, an analyst at house broker WH Ireland, thought they were worth at least 100p, implying upside of well over 50%. Latest activity is justifying that optimism. "The long-term nature of our current book of business (five-year plus contracts), asset light model and flexible management structure gives us a remarkable competitive advantage, which thankfully our competitors do not share," said chairman Duncan Soukup on 12 April - results day. "It is, therefore with a certain amount of confidence that we are able to look out thee-to-five-years into the future in the knowledge that we should continue to perform in line or above expectations, as long as we perform to our clients' satisfaction and the price of oil does not collapse for any extended period of time." And regular Interactive Investor contributor, oil industry analyst Malcolm Graham-Wood, was perplexed by the market's grim reaction to the figures. "The shares should be up, not down as the operating side of the company has performed very creditably and continues to do so. Top stuff Duncan." And finally the market has woken up Wednesday, with Thalassa shares up as much as 19% to their highest since the end of February, after Soukup confirmed he's in early-stage talks with a potential buyer of one or both of the firm's subsidiaries - WGP Group and Autonomous Robotics Limited (ARL). This is all part of Thalassa's strategy to "bridge the gap between [its] current share price and the board's assessment of the intrinsic value of the company's assets", following a 10% drop in the share price since the annual results. "With WGP holding two long-term [permanent reservoir monitoring (PRM)] contracts over four fields providing good visibility, and positive progress in development continuing at ARL, we believe that there is substantial value in these two businesses," writes Cummins. "Value also exists in the group's 23.3% stake in [The Local Shopping REIT (LSR)], as illustrated by the most recently reported 43p/share at LSR's full year results in December, in addition to Thalassa's latest reported net cash position of $7.7 million. "On the back of this announcement, we maintain our 'buy' recommendation and 100p net asset value-based share price target, whilst we estimate the underlying intrinsic individual value of the group's interests combines to generate more than double this valuation." This is a convincing argument, but investors should understand the risks here. The sale won't happen if the two sides can't agree a price. Thalassa shares are fairly illiquid, too, which means they could move down as quickly as they went as up. That area just either side of 70p is also hugely significant. Thalassa shares were worth over 300p only three years ago. There could still be plenty of shareholders who bought at around that level and who regret not selling during the good times. It proved stiff resistance in 2015 and has again on a handful of occasions in 2017. It will require some special news to make a break above that stick. Watch this space.
06/4/2017
23:57
master rsi: Why I’d buy fast-growing Hurricane Energy over turnaround candidate Imagination Technologies - Kevin Godbold | Thursday, 6th April, 2017 The fortunes of Imagination Technologies Group (LSE: IMG) and Hurricane Energy (LSE: HUR) couldn’t be more different right now and that reflects in their share prices. Ups and downs Those invested in tech firm Imagination Technologies have suffered a calamitous plunge of 62% or so since the end of March. The firm’s largest customer, Apple declared its intention to abandon Imagination’s intellectual property offering around 15 months or two years from now, so that will pull the rug from under around half the firm’s current revenues. Meanwhile, oil exploration company Hurricane Energy has delighted its shareholders with a more-than-450% uplift in its shares since April 2016 on the back of a successful oil exploration programme in the North Sea. The firm now thinks it could be sitting on “the largest undeveloped discovery on the UK Continental Shelf.” What now? Whether you hold these firms’ shares already, or if you are considering a new purchase, at every point in a stock’s journey there is a decision to be made. At frequent periods, I reckon we should ask ourselves whether to ‘buy’, ‘sell’ or ‘hold’. However, one school of thought has it that if you don’t rate a stock as a ‘buy’, it is by default a ‘sell’, and that’s an opinion I’m increasingly drawn to in my own investing. Unpleasant things can happen to those that hold for too long, perhaps the most common of which is the dreaded share price reversal, which can cause once perky portfolio profits to evaporate. Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch and other well-known successful investors built their fortunes by nailing down profits when they had them, not by holding on and on and on, despite what we often hear in the media. So if I was sitting on big profits with Hurricane Energy now I would probably take at least some of them by selling some of my shares. When it comes to a decision to buy these firms now, the choice offers opposing characteristics. Is the most interesting company the one that has run into operational problems and needs to turn around its fortunes, perhaps with a new strategy? Or is the tempting candidate the firm demonstrating operational success and a bright outlook? To be, or not to be contrarian It’s well known that many investors seem to gravitate to shares making new lows. When a company such as Imagination Technologies runs into operational trouble, the valuation can shrink and the shares can look like a bargain. However, Imagination has been relying on Apple for a long time and has been slow to build a more diverse revenue base. Now it looks like the firm may become embroiled in a legal dispute with its hitherto main customer. The situation looks messy and I think there may be risks ahead for shareholders. The clear choice for me is to focus further research on the company that is performing well and on the share price that is breaking new highs to reflect that good operational performance, so Hurricane Energy tempts me the most. However, if I did decide to plunge in now and buy some of the firm’s shares I’d remain vigilant and be prepared to sell at the first sign of things not turning out as expected.
06/4/2017
15:45
master rsi: KIBO 6.675p +0.875 (+15.22%) I mention the stock a couple days ago and has never turn back since, as volume reaches record highs again UKIS 2017 KIBO Notes - 2 Apr '17 Policy Changes - Can you explain the difference between the Tanzanian Energy and Policy Procurement Review that is underway, as per the recent presentation and the MEM Policy Review that is completed as per 23/3/17 RNS? These are two completely different reviews. It's hard to put a linear %, in terms of how much of the TEPPR is completed but it's believed the main components have been completed and these aren't really a dealing factor to the ultimate delivery of the project. There is a gazetting process to ensure any changes don't conflict with any other laws etc before being made official. In your assessment how long will the Tanzanian Energy And Policy Procurement Review take to complete? Unable to accurately say but see above that the main bulk of the work has been completed already. So we should be on the home straight. As discussed last year, can you tell me of which, if either, KIBO have had direct input too? Yes they have had input into both of these. Therefore, I read they must have reasonable knowledge of the processes and there shaping of the future. Overall how do you expect all policy changes to benefit the MCPP? Kibo will be benefit for a more robust, solid and sustainable set of rules within the overall framework of reliability within Tanzania. I.e it will ensure all payments etc will be made as agreed which is important for a project like the MCPP which is going to, run for over 25 years. ESIA - What does the ESIA Certification process involve? Literally just a final check and a signing off process. There could be the odd question that may come back to KIBO or a confirmation of certain elements but basically it is what it is, a signing up process. Given the timelines for ESIA certification acquired by other companies, the ESIA certification for KIBO should be imminent. Is there anything else that is holding this up i.e hanging on outstanding policy changes and should we expect this any day now, by that reasoning? Yes KIBO are awaiting this to drop anytime now with nothing else holding this up. SML - Given the timelines for SML approval acquired by other companies, the SML approval for KIBO should be imminent. Is there anything else that is holding this up i.e hanging on outstanding policy changes and should we expect this any day now, by that reasoning? Again, yes KIBO are awaiting this to drop anytime now with nothing else holding this up. PPA - Given the phrases used in the RNS of the 23/3/17 of 'ensuring that a final PPA can be concluded ASAP'. Can we verify that preliminary PPA tariffs were applied to the facilitate the production of the IBFS and Financial Model? The conversation quickly negated this section of questions. LC explained that we have no figures to plug in anywhere and this method of thought is the direct opposite to what is actually happening in reality in this process. We are working this completely the other way around. We are saying what the tariff figures should be, driven from the independently produced figures via the feasibility studies completed. We have control and push negotiations to where we want them to be not the other way around. To me, this means we guarantee a profitable outcome for the project. If so, we're these preliminary PPA tariffs agreed with Tanesco? N/A Again, and if so, are the accuracy of these tariffs still withstanding given the policy reviews? N/A FC - Can we assume once we have an ESIA, SML and PPA we can advance straight to FC or are there any other work streams that need completing that will hold up going to FC? Yes, although some parallel work means part of FC can already be in progress. It is possible to call a scenario of being in a Preliminary FC. Are SEPCO bound to pay you the $3.6m on entering FC or at the completion of FC? This will be on competition of FC but this is not seen to cause any problems in anyway. Will there be a news blackout during FC due to its sensitive nature? Once we reach FC, or more accurately on signing the PPA, that is when the real figures and detail can be released. LC seemed to allude on more than one occasion to look at the figures for the coal that you can workout to give a good pointer to the value that lies ahead. Therefore I don't see FC as requiring a suspension or news blackout. MCPP General - How our partners feel about the delays induced by the Government? They seem pretty understanding of the region and it's development. Obviously they have huge budgets and can outside these types of delays, so no issue here. Did Sandersons acquisition of part of the MCPP surprise you, especially vs their usual MO? LC agreed that obviously it isn't there normal line of business and that it probsbly surprised Sandersons themselves more than it did himself when they got so deeply involved. They have made a huge commitment that the believe they will benefit from. Are you any closer to knowing whether the project will be separated or integrated? No comment. What is your gut feel on which route you prefer to go down? No comment. Do you feel a 30% retention as previously alluded to is realistic or had that changed +/-? Yes this is entirely still possible and and therefore valid figure to base any calculations on. When Sandersons took their 2.5% valuing the MCPP at a discounted $100m, what was the agreed discount valued at? Although he couldn't recall the discounted figure he interesting said this value was based only on the figures from the mine. This took me back a touch as it was the complete opposite to what I expected. In fact, it may well, give rise to the fact my recent 25p a share figure for u the mine for each 300MW is too low. It puts it back to being more 35p and discounted at that !!! He must be expecting a much better price than $32.7mt for the coal being sold into the plant, imo. Can you confirm this 2.5% of the MCPP includes the mine. N/A How does the MEN's statement that 30% of Tanzanian Mining Companies Share holding must be floated on the DSE affect all of our projects especially the MCPP? This would only affect projects that require an SML. Therfore only affect the MCPP. That said, LC was of the opinion that this would in all likelyhood NOT apply to us due to the National Strategic Importance of the project. Make of that, what you will. Can we still expect the MCPP to be spun out ala Katoro? It will either be spun out or in all likely hood, Hanetti will be spun out leaving the MCPP on its own with KIBO. If so at what point would you need to initiate this? N/A. As an aside Noel seemed very excited about Hanetti. I had the feeling more work had been going on there than they have let on possibly. Sandersons - Can you give the exact repayment date of the current 2.9m loan facility? There is no set date and this is a very fluid arrangement. The distinct impressions I got was that there is alot more commitment between all these parties towards eachother than we give them credit for. Sandersons are not there to screw KIBO over for missed dates etc. From what LC said it seems very fluid and flexible. He seemed relaxed to the point of dismissing this as any issue whatsoever. How much currently of the facility has been drawn? I found it hard to believe they didn't know the answer to this but felt it was more a point of not wanting to give any shareholders privileged information, therefore, as it stands we received no figure on this. Given the slippage in timelines for FC what contingencies have you in place for settlement of monies drawn under the current Sandersons agreement and how can we best expect you to negotiate a solution to this? See above. Totally unworried, I suspect an alternative cash injection possibly from selling part of this his he MCPP down, potentially GE appeared the favourites imo. Do you conceed that where Sandersons has the right to convert up to £1.5m of amount drawn down on the Facility into Kibo Shares at the 30 day VWAP prior to the repayment date of the total Facility amount that there is an interest in the KIBO share price being low going through this period for them? LC seemed to be of the opinion this wasn't in Sandersons interest to have a low share price. I asked him if maybe it was in their favour for a short time i.e the 30 day VWAP period at least to get the max shares for the upto 1.5m but LC seemed to say the it was at our discretion whether upto max 1.5m of the facility was repayable as shares. I assume that as the deal and a repayment date seem flexible this maybe isn't a problem as previously explained but also I feel he has access to an alternate funding to eliminate this problem. I.e selling down a small stake in the MCPP possibly. How you you feel about this, as lot of investors feel uncomfortable with it and suspect some share price manipulation? They have and our investigating but so far have not found how or who is//could be causing any manipulation. Beaufort - Given the significant progress made with the MCPP, how do you feel when your house broker cannot upgrade their stock recommendation, despite your best efforts? Also how do you feel this looks to new or potential investors from the outside? Very small potatoes in the grand scheme of things. Government of Tanzania What actually tangible evidence can you show investors as to the government being completely behind this project at this point? Look there isn't a letter or anything assigning KIBO any such special privileges. It's something that needs to happen and KIBO have got themselves to the front of the queue in terms of project development They have great relationships in terms of being completely transparent and honest with the Government and this extends both ways. Can we have some insight as to how KIBO benefits from a supposedly 'special' relationship with the Government? See above Have you any agreement with the government in any form that the MCPP will provide Stage 2 and 400MW for export via the ZTK? Yes this seems obviously where this second stage is going to go, however LC also and passionately pointed out this was not the only option. Only 300MW or Stage 1 can be evacuated into the grid as it stands now. However as an IPP’S he can sell Power to whomever he likes. It need not only be to Tanesco or into the ZTK. He can deal directly with the EAPP too for example or sell as to cement factories etc etc. Sepco III - :-) Can you confirm that KIBO initiated the revision to the original JDA agreement with SEPCO III for their best interests and not that Sepco the JDA was revised as they were not prepared to commit funds due to low IRRS of the Power side of the project. Emphatically and rightly pointed out by LC. Why would SEPCO enter into a deal for 1.8m plus 3.6m just for backcosts and nothing else when the original deal was $3m for 15%. There was no need for further discussion. NPV - Who verified or confirmed the RNS'D NPV figures? Tractebel, MINXCOM etc plus these were again independently assessed, produced and verified. Can you 100% confirm the NPV figures quoted of just shy of $500m per 300MW configuration are figures post debt interest, as I expect them to be. See above, do you really think these companies don't know how to calculate NPV that relates to the rest of the business world? Institutional Investors - You been on record as saying approx 50% of calls into you were from Investors wanting to get in on the MCPP. How come - barring Sandersons, we have no institutional investors notifiable in Kibo? LC was of the opinion that we are under the radar of serious II's. At a 30m cap they will become inerested and can invest. He has had alot of interest, so imo, on the back of significant news we won't possibly retrace next time we go past 10p, we might have bigger buyers buying into the price at the level for the reasons stated. Do you see this as an issue and are you attempting to address it? See above. Diversified Mining - What is the minimum mining permission needed for Kibo to start selling coal locally or will we be waiting for an all encompassing SML? It will be covered under the SML, already applied for. If less than an SML what is the minimum period to get it and can it be converted to an SML later? It will be covered under the SML already applied for. We know the Capex of the mine with regards the MCPP is $17m, what is the CAPEX for getting the mine into early production and how do you intend to raise this amount? The mine is the mine, it will take $17m What ia the current sell price per tonne of Tanzanian coal in local market? Amazingly $60/ $70 per mt What is the profit margin per tonne? No comment What is the nitial and potential sales potential for local domestic market? A lot of interest has been shown so far and still feeling out its full potential. Is there much competition in local market? Not much only one company he mentioned, he didn't seemed to know quite who Edenville would have as customers. Most other mines will have high transportation costs where as at Mbeya they are right on the train track therefore will be able to keep their costs down and provide coal still a lower price than other companies. LC was adamant no one would beat them for price. Is exporting of this coal feasible and being explored? Not impossible but for internal use only for now. CSR Program - What else will this entail and under what conditions were you required to run this? This was triggered via the ESIA but nothing else significant is planned for now. RNS - General feedback is that RNS' need more proof reading, could include more numbers for the market to correctly value us on, along with maybe a little shine when we do things well, although I do think we attempt to hide not so good news well. It was noted but felt most issues were not related to the real material news. Q & A - Given the amount of mails sent into you that must take up valuable time, can we schedule a monthly Q & A through Vox Markets, as this seemed to be a great way of investors being able to interact with you on current issues and may not only cut down on your email inbox but act as great PR. Dedicated email address to be set up with a monthly Q and A sessions as previously conducted via Vox. SP Value - As much as we can see progressions on all project fronts and especially the MCPP, do you conceed that there is only a material increase in share price value when the share is consistently worth more this year than it was last year? Although I didn't ask this the general conversation regarding the share price led to the opinion there will be several significant catalysts for share price improvement coming over the next 2/3 months. To that end, what do you think will be the trigger for realising solid share price value with regard the MCPP, bar an offer being made for the project. See above. I have a value of approx $150-175m for selling a 300MW config with the coal, if retained being worth 25p at the 32.7mt price. Do you feel this is accurate? Approached the his in a slightly more round about way. They certainly didn't argue and I felt this wasn't far off of what they were thinking either. If sold, how do you I tend to make sure we don't end up selling a 1000MW plant for the price of a discounted 300MW plant. This was probably the most significant part of the his home day for me. Each 300MW will be sold as as separate company. Different level of ownership could be assigned over each stage. Therefore KIBO can benefit and realise from the full 1000MW. This IMO, significantly raises the value of the total investment we could realise given a longer term view. Assuming this does reach FC then alot more is at stake than a 300MW value. This alone as the most revealing part of the day. There is an absolutely massive value waiting to be unlocked. I also asked if now relationships between all parties had been established if a rinse and repeat of the whole project could be on the cards? LC just smiled and said, "Yes, of course it could". How do you best expect to materially realise value back to all share holders, would a special dividend vs income be your preferred method of distribution? A special dividend would always be a way to go, when realising share holder value.
04/4/2017
11:34
master rsi: BROKERS TIPS Broker tips: BP, Rotork, Mediclinic, housebuilders Deutsche Bank has upgraded its stance on oil giant BP to 'buy' from 'hold' with an unchanged price target of 505p. The bank said it was upgrading the stock that after a challenging six months which saw the shares lag the European peer group by 7%. "In doing so we position for anticipated newsflow on project starts (Egypt, Oman, UK, T&T) and external indications that Macondo cash outflows are now moderating. "Following two disappointing quarters for operating cash flow which have served to undermine confidence in the group's ability to rebalance its cash cycle at current Brent prices we believe the risk/reward balance in the equity is notably improved and that impending volume adds will aid conviction that BP's dividend is not only sustainable but will be augmented by late 2018 buy-backs." When DB downgraded the stock to 'hold' back in October 2016, it had argued that following the largely sterling-induced run in the nominal share price the valuation placed upon the shares was no longer competitive on a sector basis. In addition, with the cash outflows on Macondo rising sharply following BP's decision to accelerate the pay down of claims for business and economic losses, DB expected to see a period of added cash flow uncertainty and with it potential investor concern about the group's ability to rebalance its cash cycle at a 'realistic oil price', at least in the near term.. Six months later and the bank said these risks have in essence come to pass with the company's relative share price performance undermined in the process. Rotork Rotork rallied as JP Morgan Cazenove upgraded the stock to 'overweight' from 'neutral' and lifted the price target to 265p from 230p, saying the company was positioned to return to growth. The bank said it reckons the group's earnings power has increased and earnings can significantly exceed previous peaks. "Our analysis increases our confidence that end-market headwinds are easing, the group remains well positioned to benefit from the recovery and growth opportunities exist outside of just oil & gas capex." JPM said that incorporating its analysis into its model drives double-digit upgrades and its forecasts are now above consensus. The bank upped its estimate for 2017 adjusted earnings per share to 11p from 10.1p and for 2018 EPS to 12.8p from 10.8p. It increased its forecasts for full-year revenue in 2017 to £637m from £609m and for 2018 to £670m from £620m. JPM said it builds only a modest recovery in end-market demand over 20172017 into its forecasts, but this represents a reversal on the downturn pressures. Mediclinic International Macquarie downgraded South African private hospital group Mediclinic International to 'neutral' from 'outperform' and reduced the price target to 770p from 860p. The bank said it expects the business environment in the UAE health space to remain tough and that a recovery to the previous margin levels is highly unlikely in the near term. "Furthermore, we also expect Mediclinic's SA business to be under pressure on the back of the tougher trading environment while the Swiss business will continue to chug along with potential regulatory risks in the near to medium term." Macquarie expects it will take some time for the company's Abu Dhabi operation to start turning around, having been hit by a meaningful loss of doctors since the reverse merger took place. In addition, the bank said it is concerned about the potential oversupply of beds in the medium term in the region, which may lead to pricing pressure. It also said that pre-opening costs for Parkview hospital, which is due to begin trading in the fourth quarter of 2018, will be negative for margins during that period. At 1020 BST, the shares were down 2.4% to 693.50p, also weighed down by the weaker rand, which slumped overnight after Standard & Poor's cut South Africa's sovereign credit rating to 'junk'. Housebuilders Analysts at Liberum have raised their forecasts for housebuilders, preferring growers rather than returners, but they remain cautious about the housing sector due to share price gains. The broker raised its earnings per share forecasts by about 10% for 2017 and 15% for 2018 as house price inflation expectations increase to 3% in 2017 and slow materially to 1% the following year, while economic forecasts improve. But it is cautious on the housing sector, despite higher target prices due to recent share price gains. It prefers growers who can offset expected margin pressure from house price inflation with volume growth to returners, such as Bellway, MJ Gleeson and Redrow. Liberum upgraded Redrow to 'buy' from hold' and raised its target price to 561p from 415p, while Bellway and MJ Gleeson were maintained at 'buy' with target prices of 700p and 3,032p, up from 662p and 2,780p, respectively. However, Persimmon and Berkeley were downgraded to 'hold' from 'buy', although their target prices were raised to 2,161p and 3,169p, from 1,900p and 3,150p respectively, on valuation. Barratt Developments remains Liberum's least preferred stock with its rating maintained at 'sell' with a target price of 492p, up from 425p, as its short landbank makes its dividend less sustainable under stress than for the other returners. The outlook of the British economy has shifted and Liberum claimed that economists are now more optimistic about 2017 and expect only a mild slowdown in 2018/19 with the rate of unemployment now anticipated to rise to only 5.3% in 2018. Liberum also said that the macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, housing affordability "looks stretched", and looks that way to the regulator too. It expects the government's Help to Buy scheme to face tests in 2018, but said it is likely to come through unscathed. It also forecasts that any interest rate hikes would likely impact sentiment rather than the housing market, the build cost inflation is likely to persist and that the land market may become more competitive.
21/3/2017
23:00
master rsi: The 'critical' price for Royal Bank of Scotland shares - By Alistair Strang | Tue, 21st March 2017 It's easy to dislike banking shares at present. Everything is in hiatus, feeling like there's a major news event about to happen. We last viewed Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) at the end of last month and, frankly, very little has changed. The situation remains of a glass ceiling just below the 260p level and the need for the share price to actually close above this point (according to recent behaviour, 258.9p is critical) for the price to "prove" some growth is coming to 277p, maybe even 321p. In fact, if we're generous, we should admit a rather more distant 354p would be on the radar if the share price would just close above the downtrend since 2008. But for now, the share price is trapped in an imaginary circus ring with the rest of the clown acts. Circled on the chart is one of our hated "GaGa" movements, this particular one feeding the price with sufficient force to bottom at 222p. Oddly, despite numerous opportunities, the share price has not yet hit the 222p level, and now it appears such a movement would not be the worst thing in the world. Essentially, trades near-term below 231p look capable of driving the share down to 222p and a bonk against the downtrend since 2015. In itself, not awfully alarming as the share is required to slither below this trend to promote alarms, along with trouble in the direction of 205p For now though, it's boring...
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