Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Upstream LSE:UPS London Ordinary Share KYG7393S1012 ORD 0.25P (DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 1.625p 0.00p 0.00p - - - 0.00 05:00:10
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
6.3 0.4 21.9 0.1 2.23

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Date Time Title Posts
02/12/201616:24SHARES STRONGLY UP during December 201639.00
01/12/201622:42SHARES STRONGLY UP during November 2016592.00
28/11/201610:21SHARES STRONGLY UP during October 2016542.00
01/10/201614:47SHARES STRONGLY UP during September 2016504.00
31/8/201623:09 SHARES STRONGLY UP during August 2016507.00

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DateSubject
21/11/2016
15:55
master rsi: SXX 21.125p = Very level today on the share price but slowly the buys are taking over the order book, still plenty of shares for sell on the offer side, so I do not expect to change YET. Now there was a post on III giving a good detail of the stock from "1328745" ...... I'd just like to make it clear that I'm not an employee of Sirius Minerals as some have assumed. I'd also like to answer your question in relation to why I believe that the current share price doesn't reflect the 'shovel ready project' value. The share price immediately before the launch of stage 1 financing (37p) in some part factored in the expectation of successful financing. The 20p placing price of course doesn't include any element of 'shovel readiness' as the institutional investors aren't funding a shovel ready project. They're funding a great idea with mineral rights, planning consents, project plans etc. Without that funding it's not going to be shovel ready. Of course the share price was going to converge with the placing price as private investors sold shares to take up their open offer allocations. Institutional investors aren't going to be picking any shares up in the low 20's though until those two resolutions are passed and the project is genuinely shovel ready. Now it isn't. If those resolutions aren't voted through then they get their placing money back – no additional risk due to the uncertainty of private investor behaviour. Buying shares on the open market now at a similar price to the placement price is a risk too far until that vote goes through (even though the placing was oversubscribed at 20p). Once it does, the re-rate starts. In theory, based on the 37p share price immediately before stage 1 financing launch and the 20p placing price, the share price should be 29.5p when the new shares start trading. This was detailed in the circular. That's still very much on the low side though as the 37p only partly reflected the shovel ready value so I'd expect it to climb quite quickly beyond that. Remember that figures of 15p – 20p/share have been forecast for a long time for the equity raise. The link below shows the figures from Sirius Mineral's DFS and Liberum's own figures – albeit before the capital funding reduction was announced. The model's most optimistic setting allowed for 30p/share but the default was 15p. Shore Capital's research note on the 27th May used 20p/share. hxxp://liberum.com/models/sxxj79vi8n502m And no, I don't work for Liberum either!
20/10/2016
21:59
master rsi: BP downgraded; 'buy' Shell - By Lee Wild | Thu, 20th October 2016 - 14:33 BP downgraded; 'buy' Shell There's really been very little to separate BP (BP.) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB) this year, certainly in terms of share price performance. Both are up around 40%. But, while the third-quarter is not typically a needle-mover for the industry, profits this year will be pretty grim, and one analyst has been crunching the numbers for London-listed oil majors. When results come in during the next week or two, oil & gas analysts at UBS expect the European sector to report third-quarter earnings down 28% year-on-year in dollar terms. In the US it's 52%. However, given how close the sector is to break even earnings, the declines look worse than they are, and the broker predicts a 22% quarter-on-quarter increase in net income this side of the pond. That said, while oil prices were flat on the second quarter, they have almost doubled since January to over $52 a barrel. Brent crude is up 13% in just three weeks, and hopes are high that OPEC and the Russians can agree production cuts in Vienna next month. US stockpiles have also fallen. Share prices have followed suit, however, and BP is up 41% since early June to its best levels in over two years. Shell has surged by three-quarters from less than £13 to over £22. And that does mean valuations are now "less distressed," so investment opportunities are "less obvious," according to UBS. BP now trades on about 14 times earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2017, in line with European majors. "We are lowering our rating on BP to 'neutral' from 'buy' after strong share price performance, retaining our disciplined approach to target multiples that has largely served us well this year," writes the broker. However, UBS ramps up its price target to 500p from 445p to reflect an oil price estimate of $60 a barrel. This target implies a dividend yield of 6.5%, suggesting share price upside if oil prices exceed $60 and capital expenditure intensity "is sustainably driven downwards". Shell is still rated a 'buy', with price target raised from 2,100p to 2,250p. "We believe the potential for cost reduction at Shell is greater and the quality of the development/pre-development portfolio is higher," says UBS, "but we are less convinced of the focus to drive these through than at its closest peers; hence the two balance off." A strategy day in New York on 8 November could be the next catalyst, with American investors given an update on some of the big local issues. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL 2,174.50p 0.46% BP. 490.05p -0.02%
20/10/2016
15:48
master rsi: Oil, Gas Roundup Stratex International (LON:STI) has entered into a service agreement with Goldstone Resources Ltd, in which it holds a 33.45% interest. Under the terms of the agreement, Stratex would provide technical services to support Goldstone for a monthly fee of £1,750 plus VAT as well as a further fee in respect of any specific work streams, including but not limited to project management and analysis of results from exploration programmes. * * * SOCO International (LON:SIA) non-executive director Marianne Daryabegui has stepped down from the board following the expiry of her initial contract term this month. This is due to her employer now limiting its employees' participation as non-executive directors. The board thanked her for her excellent service and for her invaluable contribution to the company during her tenure of office and wishes her the very best for the future. The board has particularly valued and benefited from her independent thought and objectivity along with her extensive experience in oil and gas corporate finance. * * * The sector's biggest risers were Empyrean Energy (LON:EME) and Borders & Southern Petroleum (LON:BOR) - up by more than 59% and over 34.4% respectively in late trading. The biggest fallers were Gulfsands Petroleum (LON:GPX) and Solo Oil (LON:SOLO) - down by 8% and more than 4.3% respectively. At 4:07pm: (LON:AUR) Aurum Mining PLC share price was 0p at 2.58p (LON:BOR) Borders Southern Petroleum PLC share price was +0.67p at 2.87p (LON:CHAR) Chariot Oil Gas Ltd share price was -0.07p at 8.81p (LON:EME) Empyrean Energy PLC share price was -7.25p at 1.75p (LON:ENQ) EnQuest Plc share price was -1.87p at 29.88p (LON:GKP) Gulf Keystone Petroleum share price was -0.02p at 1.32p (LON:GPX) Gulfsands Petroleum PLC share price was -0.25p at 2.88p (LON:INDI) Indus Gas Ltd share price was +2.38p at 487.38p (LON:PET) Petrel Resources PLC share price was 0p at 6.13p (LON:RKH) Rockhopper Exploration PLC share price was -0.37p at 27.63p (LON:RPT) Regal Petroleum PLC share price was -0.02p at 3.73p (LON:SIA) SOCO International PLC share price was -1.5p at 138.75p (LON:STI) Stratex International PLC share price was +0.1p at 1.9p (LON:XEL) Xcite Energy Ltd share price was +0.16p at 1.66p
20/10/2016
13:59
whites123: MAYA : Mayair. 2 trades of 5000 shares go through (These are not destined for share buyback) and the result is, NMS tightens up and increase of 8% showing. Folk... DYOR etc, but it really is a coiled spring waiting to pop. The company has an approved mandate to buy back 10% of stock at an average price of £1.42. (£5,500,000) all stock bought below means the top price payable goes up. MAYA : Mayair. Very limited PI interest showing in MAYA (Mayair) still, but with just 2 small PI trades showing of £3,700 total the share price has risen some 8%. The company has an approved mandate to spend over £5,500,000 on share buy back program. Its a squeeze of epic proportions. Do some research people... Im like an over excited kid as I have not seen this situation for many a year. MAYA : Mayair Close to £5,500.000 still to spend on share buy back program. Averaged out that equates to over £1.40 per share, but all those bought lower means the upper price to pay can well exceed that marker. Tripling of the share price is easy once stock is in demand. Its a squeeze of epic proportions in the waiting. And yet another RNS from MAYA showing a further share buy back. Each and every time the rns comes out the price increases. Yesterday just 2 purchases. 1 from a PI buying 2,500 shares and the other purchase was a share buy back by the company. They have the mandate to buy approx a further 4 MILLION shares back. The share price will explode... Anyone else here excited about MAYA? (Mayair) They want to buy back 4,247,500 shares (10%) for a maximum of £5,755,750 They have already bought back 340,000 shares for £205,611 So they still have to buy back 3,907,500 shares with £5,550,139 They can pay up to 142p (£5,550,139 / 3,907,500) to acquire the outstanding stock but for every share they buy below 142p, they can pay more than 142p to complete the buy-back, so the price should keep stepping up. The objective of the buy back seems to be to get the share price up. This could triple from here. 19th Oct -2016 RNS today showing they bought back more shares.. In a lightly traded stock like this they have the mandate to buy back almost 4,000,000 more. Where will the share price be by then? Many many multiples of todays price is my best guess.
18/10/2016
21:59
master rsi: CLOSING MARKET REPORT FTSE gains on retailers, banks and miners The FTSE 100 advanced 0.8% to 7,000 on strength among retailers, banks and miners as the UK inflation rate spiked. Next (NXT) and Marks and Spencer (MKS) rose over 4%, while Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and Standard Chartered (STAN) made positive gains. Strong copper and gold prices helped to boost Polymetal (POLY) and Glencore (GLEN) by more than 3%. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell below the $50 mark to $49.90, while Brent crude oil slipped 0.2% to $51.39 per barrel, respectively. Gold glittered at $1,261 per ounce and copper nudged higher to $4,629 per tonne. TOP STOCK MARKET NEWS Bookmaker William Hill (WMH) ended talks over a possible £4.5bn tie-up with Amaya, owner of the world's biggest poker website. Investors were happy the company planned to focus on online, technology, efficiencies and international expansion as the stock nudged higher to 307.47p. Inflation increased by 1% in September according to the Office for National Statistics, as clothing and fuel became more expensive. In the US, inflation was 0.3% higher in September said the US Bureau of Labor. FTSE 100 RISERS AND FALLERS Fashion designer Burberry (BRBY) was one of the biggest fallers on the London Stock Exchange despite posting growth in revenue in the first half of its financial year. It benefited from the weak pound which is expected to benefit full year retail and wholesale profit, but investors fretted over fading growth. FTSE 250 RISERS AND FALLERS Housebuilder Bellway (BWY) rose 6% to £23.86 after its pre-tax profit rose 41% in its financial year ended 31 July. Following the Brexit vote Bellway said it sold more homes at a higher price, and reservation levels surged beyond the previous year. SMALL CAP RISERS AND FALLERS Investment company Cambria Africa (CMB) shot up 172% to 1.7p on a positive trading update, including a 44.7% increase in consolidated EBITDA from $1.23m to $1.78m in the year to 31 August. Online musical retailer Gear4msuic (G4M) reported a 74% growth in profit from £3,305,000 to £5,754,000 in the six months to 31 August compared to the same period in 2015. Revenue also increased by over 70% due to rising web traffic and higher conversion rates. Investors were frustrated with KEFI Minerals (KEFI) as it considered various financing proposals for the development of Tulu Kapi, pushing shares 16% lower. Software and solutions firm 1Spatial (SPA) was in negative territory after revealing loss after tax widened from £1.5m to £2.1m in the first half of the year. Budget airline Ryanair (RYA) cut its full-year forecasts which blamed the drop in the pound following the Brexit vote. It said net profit will be 5% lower at €1.3bn to €1.35bn, but this failed to deter investors as it gained 4.9%. Online fashion firm ASOS (ASC) fell 3.3% to £51.54 on lower profit margins, despite revenue climbing from £1,143m to £1,444.9m in the year to 31 August. Mining firm Diamondcorp (DCP) launched a company-wide strategic review in response to its funding squeeze and possible interest in the company by third parties. Investors think this will trigger a complete buyout of the busines, this, and the restart of operations on its Lace mine, saw the share price to soar 51.2% to 3.1p. Emerging hopes of a recovery in core oil and gas markets sees coatings specialist Hardide (HDD) gain 8.6%. Figures for the full year to 30 September are in line but the second half surge in demand was seen as evidence that its industry backcloth is improving. Commodity and banking stocks push FTSE higher By StockMarketWire | 18/10/2016 - 11:51 The FTSE 100 gained 0.9% to 7,010 on higher commodity and oil prices, which boosted mining and resources stocks. Randgold Resources (RRS), Polymetal (POLY) and Fresnillo (FRES) were the biggest risers, climbing at least 2.8%. Barclays (BARC) and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) also pushed the blue chip index with gains of over 2%. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was 1% higher at $50.46 and Brent crude oil advanced 0.9% to $52 per barrel, respectively. Gold gained 0.5% to $1,261 per ounce and copper rose 0.3% to $4,651 per tonne. TOP STOCK MARKET NEWS Bookmaker William Hill (WMH) ended talks over a possible £4.5bn tie-up with Amaya, owner of the world's biggest poker website. Investors were happy the company planned to focus on online, technology, efficiencies and international as the stock rose 1.5% to 309.4p. FTSE 100 RISERS AND FALLERS Fashion designer Burberry (BRBY) slumped 7.7% to £13.95 despite posting growth in revenue in the first half of its financial year. It benefited from the weak pound which is expected to benefit full year retail and wholesale profit, but investors fretted over fading growth. FTSE 250 RISERS AND FALLERS Housebuilder Bellway (BWY) nudged higher to £22.75 after its pre-tax profit rose 41% in its financial year ended 31 July. Following the Brexit vote Bellway said it sold more homes at a higher price, and reservation levels surged beyond the previous year. SMALL CAP RISERS AND FALLERS Budget airline Ryanair (RYA) cut its full-year forecasts which blamed the drop in the pound following the Brexit vote. It said net profit will be 5% lower at €1.3bn to €1.35bn, but this failed to deter investors, boosting its share price by 2.8%. Online fashion firm ASOS (ASC) fell 7% to £49.60 on lower profit margins, despite revenue climbinh from £1,143m to £1,444.9m in the year to 31 August. Mining firm Diamondcorp (DCP) launched a company-wide strategic review in response to its funding squeeze and possible interest in the company by third parties. Investors think this will trigger a complete buyout of the business, causing the share price to soar 52.4% to 3.12p. Emerging hopes of a recovery in core oil and gas markets sees coatings specialist Hardide (HDD) gain 8.6%. Figures for the full year to 30 September are in line but the second half surge in demand was seen as evidence that its industry backcloth is improving. Mining minnow Premier African Minerals' (PREM) £0.3m cash call to buy into a new gold project failed to excite investors. The company said it is buying a 4.5% stake in Mauritius registered Casa Mining, which holds prospective gold mining and exploration licences in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Investors focused on a 36% discount needed to get funding triggering a stock price crash of 8.6% at 0.36p. FTSE resumes upward bent ahead of inflation data By StockMarketWire | 18/10/2016 - 08:53 London stocks resumed their upward trajectory this morning on the back of heady gains among miners, supermarkets, property stocks and some high-street retailers. The market is looking to a raft of UK and US inflation data out today. Informa (INF) guided blue chips higher with a 2.87% surge to 680p. It was followed by Randgold (RRS), up 2.6% to 6997.5p, Rio Tinto (RIO), up 1.96% to 2639.25p, and BHP Billiton (BLT), up 1.78% to 1214.75p. Polymetal International (POLY), up 2.38% to 870.25p, is firmly on track to meet its annual production and cost guidance. Soon after the open, FTSE 100 was up 59.58 points, or 0.86%, to 7007.13, while FTSE 250 was ahead 161.67, or 0.91%, to 17,954.2. At 8.39am, WTI crude was up 0.94% to $50.41/bbl and Brent was up 0.95% to $52.01/bbl. Gold was ahead 0.48% to $1262.6/oz. Overall, risers outnumbered fallers 91 to nine. Every sector was represented to the upside in a session that has so far been rich in blue-chip corporate news. Commercial property followed Intu (INTU), up 1.79% to 292.55p. House builders traced Barratt (BDEV), ahead 1.3% to 474.8p. Tesco (TSCO), up 1.78% to 204.88p led supermarkets. Retail outfit Next (NXT) added 1.27% to 4561p, but Burberry (BRBY) dived 6.32% to 1416.5p, said its ambitious revenue growth and productivity plans were on track. H1 total revenue fell 4% on an underlying basis to £1,159m. Legal & General (LGEN), up 1.17% to 208.1p, said Sir John Kingman will take up his appointment as group chairman with effect from 24 October. Bellway (BWY), up 2.87% to 2314.5p, has reports another record year, further increasing the number of new homes sold, which has resulted in a substantial growth in earnings. EPS rose 42.0% to 328.7p, with proposed total dividedn up 40.3% to 108p. Vodafone (VOD), up 0.37% to 225.28p, and HiWEB, an Iranian ISP, today jointly announced a new non-equity Partner Market agreement for Iran. BIGGER MOVERS DiamondCorp (DCP), up 29.27% to 2.65p, said mining has resumed mining at the Lace diamond mine and also announced that it has put itself up for sale. Hardide (HDD), up 17.14% to 1.03p, expects to report FY results in line with current market forecasts, with H2 seeing an improvement over H1, as projected at the time of the interim results. Chaarat Gold (CGH), up 14.68% to 9.49p, has declined a cash offer -- at a premium of about 30% -- to buy the Chaarat deposit. It said the expression did not reflect the concrete progress it was making towards crystallising the underlying value of the deposit. Premier African Minerals (PREM), down 12.5% to 0.35p, has acquired a 4.5% stake in Casa Mining (CASA), which holds prospective gold mining and exploration licences in the Democratic Republic of Congo. It also raised £0.3m at 0.32p a share to fund the deal and for working capital. LONDON HIGHLIGHTS Marshall Motor Holdings (MMH), up 10.22% to 151p, notes the recent movement in its share price and, other than general speculation surrounding the potential impact of Brexit on the UK economy and the automotive sector in particular, directors know of no reason for this movement. Mkango Resources (MKA), up 6.67% to 4p, said the Government of Malawi has granted a further two-year renewal for Exclusive Exploration Licence (EPL) 0284, in south-east Malawi. Solo Oil (SOLO), up 4.44% to 0.24p, said site preparations for the Ntorya-2 appraisal well have now been completed and that mobilisation of the Caroil#2 rig from the Ntorya-1 wellsite is underway. Utilitywise (UTW), up 4.21% to 5.38p, has improved its FY pretax profit to £18.4m, from £14.1m. Total dividend was 6.5p a share, from 5.0p. Revenue was £84.4m, from £69.1m. ASOS (ASC), down 3.07% to 5168.5p, has reported FY retail sales up 26% to £1,403.7m, driven by strong product, delivery improvements and further price investments across its major markets. Continuing pretax profit before exceptionals rose 37% to £63.7m. Ladbrokes (LAD), up 2.54% to 141.4p, was confident of delivering FY results in line with its expectations after its fourth consecutive quarter of year-on-year net revenue growth in Q3. Orogen Gold (ORE), up 2.44% to 0.02p, is strongly encouraged by preliminary modelling of its 2016 drill results at Mutsk, Armenia, and has step-out holes planned to the north and south with an immediate drilling start-up. Shanta Gold (SHG), up 2.3% to 11.13p, said Q3 has been another solid quarter, setting it up to deliver at the top-end of FY production guidance and once again improving its position on costs with a further reduction in target AISC to US$690 - 740 /oz, from US$730 - 780 /oz. William Hill (WMH), up 1.94% to 310.8p, said that, after canvassing views from several major shareholders, its directors have decided the company will not pursue merger discussions with Amaya. Other stocks in the news included Paragon Entertainment (PEL), Hays (HAS), InterQuest (ITQ), Clinigen (CLIN), Rare Earth Minerals (REM), Polymetal International (POLY), Future (FUTR), Botswana Diamonds (BOD), Tethyan (TETH), Accesso Technology (ACSO) and Altona (ANR).
16/10/2016
19:28
master rsi: Banks are 'most attractive' trade right now By James Sym of Schroders | Fri, 14th October 2016 - 13:33 Banks 'most attractive' trade right now To our minds an investment in European banks represents potentially the single most attractive opportunity in our asset class. It is that very rare thing in the post quantitative easing (QE) investment world: a "fat pitch" or, for those unfamiliar with baseball parlance, an easy ball to hit. This will appear an incongruous statement. Banks have been the dogs of this investment cycle and readers will no doubt be familiar with many of the well-worn threats to the industry. Anyone doubting the wisdom of an investment in this sector is certainly not alone; our analysis suggests nearly nine out of ten professional investors in Europe are underweight the sector. To state the obvious, in a sector so unloved, given these stocks are trading way below fair value, a subsequent increase in their share prices would be incredibly painful for the many portfolios with little to no exposure. Why then do we take the other view? Our investment theses typically take place in three steps. Firstly, identify why the shares trade as they do. In other words, what's the problem? Secondly, identify why the key inputs have to change. And thirdly, when these initial conditions change, how much money could you make? Banks trade on ultra-cheap valuations To start with then these stocks are somewhere between very and outrageously cheap. For example, one of the better northern European banks might typically offer a 6% dividend yield. Venture to Italy and one can find dividend yields in the double digits. Not bad if you have spare cash for investment in a world where interest rates are 0% and over half of all European government bonds globally yield less than 1%. But why do banks trade so cheaply? Almost by definition it's because the market views the current level of profitability as unsustainable. There are the threats that make good headlines such as litigation and regulation, as well as the vague notion that new technology somehow renders the banking model obsolete. But there is one overriding, pernicious threat that has dominated the discourse around banking boardrooms across Europe over the last couple of years. And that is zero (ZIRP) and then negative interest rate (NIRP) policy from the European Central Bank (ECB). Monetary policy has hurt banks' profits There is no doubt that the alphabet soup of ZIRP/NIRP/QE has damaged banking profitability, and for the duration these policies are in place it will continue to do so. For those lucky enough never to have had the misfortune of trying to digest a bank's financial statements, it's perhaps enough to observe that since Mario Draghi announced QE in January 2015 forecasts for banking sector profits are down by over 20% and share prices by more than 30%. So we've identified the problem - excessively loose monetary policy. However we think these excessively loose monetary policies are currently under review - and rightly so. Why? Most obviously, they have done very little to stimulate demand and inflation as they were designed to do. Consider that Japan has tried ZIRP for 20 years and in the West it's approaching a decade. And economic growth has been virtually non-existent. As an aside I respectfully suggest the neo-classical economists' models, which tie low rates to booming economies, might need a rethink. Unintended consequences More alarmingly from our own experience we are seeing more and more often how counter-productive these policies are for generating economic growth. For example a recent meeting with one of Europe's largest banks confirmed that because of their low share price (which is a function of low rates and consequently low profits) they are instructing their individual business units to restrict lending to only the most profitable, lowest risk loans. This is not great if you are a small business with a new product to launch or a domestic industrial company with a factory to build. Make no mistake: this is deflationary and it is counterproductive. No wonder then we have the rise of political alternativists across the continent: Marine Le Pen, Podemos, Cinque Stelle, Alternative fur Deutschland, Freedom Party to rattle through the five biggest eurozone economies. The great collective wisdom that is represented by Western democracy is flexing its muscles. Self-preservation is a very powerful force when the elites are confronted with a policy choice: witness the recently changed rhetoric on austerity and fiscal stimulus. Policy change as inflation returns But what's the catalyst? What forces the policymaker's hand? The glib answer is it doesn't matter because the majority of banks trade below book value, which is the stockmarket's way of telling them to shrink. Given that 85% of all credit in the European economy is funded by the banks, it's obvious this policy is unsustainable and counterproductive. However, there is another, shorter term factor that will give central bankers cover to declare victory and move to a more balanced approach and that is the return of inflation. In the next one to two years inflation is likely to come back as the oil price has stabilised. Most models suggest a 1.5% to 2% headline reading by 2018 which is pretty much the objective of the ECB. While the rhetoric around fiscal policy changed at the beginning of this year, the rhetoric about changing monetary policy has just begun. So it must happen. Bond yields should rise. In this highly distorted and manipulated market they are the wrong price. Small change in rates = big impact on profits So to the third and final key question: why does this matter for bank shares? What's the upside? We can cut this a number of ways. For a country like Spain where the profits of the banking system are fairly quick to recognise the impact of a change in rates, an increase of 2% on bond yields (so for example German 10 year Bunds moving from -0.2% to +1.8% yield; not exactly outrageous and only back to 2014 levels) would be a more than 50% profit upgrade. Given they start very cheaply, we would expect at least this much back in share price terms plus the dividends. Or we could look at where the bank sector traded when bonds were last at these levels: that would again give more than a 50% return for the sector overall. Finally we might take a more fundamental approach and conduct an analysis of what the future dividend stream would be worth today if it proves sustainable. This would produce around 200% upside in a world of low growth with inflation near target levels. Conclusion: when our scenario of higher-but-still-low rates and normalised inflation comes to pass, these shares should fly. Higher quality banks likely to be the winners A final word on stock picking. While it is true the sector as a whole is cheap, we think there is little point deviating from investing in the very strongest banks. In fact some companies have been able to grow revenues even in this difficult environment. Those that have the biggest headwinds are ceding market share to the winners and there is more than sufficient upside in these winning stocks to keep us interested. It is true also that there is elevated political uncertainty across Europe so we see little benefit in ‘bottom-fishing' (i.e. buying the very cheapest banks). In summary then we can see why in a world of low rates the investment community has steered clear of banking stocks. However rising interest rates are just a matter of time and the impact for banking share prices could be very material indeed, with returns perhaps measured in multiples not percentages. Given our analysis you will be unsurprised that while nine out of ten funds are underweight, we have one of the highest weightings to financials generally, and banks specifically, across all European equity funds. Past Performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of any overseas investments to rise or fall.
16/10/2016
19:06
master rsi: Best AIM companies of 2016 confirmed By Andrew Hore | Fri, 14th October 2016 - 15:40 Best AIM companies of 2016 confirmed The AIM Awards were held at Old Billingsgate in London on Thursday night and there was the typical wide range of winners, both internationally and in terms of sector. I managed to predict three of the winners this year. Best investor communication WYG Group (WYG) I got this one right with the project management consultancy being recognised for its turnaround in recent years and how it has communicated improved prospects to investors. WYG (WYG) has international operations, but in recent times it has been the UK businesses that have fuelled growth. The international operations have scope for a much improved performance. EU-backed projects are starting to come on stream, so there is a level of uncertainty, but WYG has clearly set out how exposed it is to EU-funded work. It also has local offices that can be used to ensure that work is still won with the possibility of further local bases being set up. The recent share price decline makes WYG look attractive. Best performing share Pantheon Resources (PANR) US-focused oil and gas explorer Pantheon Resources (PANR) rose by more than 700% over the period between 1 August 2015 and 31 July 2016, and much of the share price rise came in the last few months of 2015. This was sparked by the completion of testing of the VOBM#1 well in east Texas. The test showed production of 1,528 barrels of oil equivalent/day, one-third of which is liquids. A second horizontally drilled well also found a hydrocarbon bearing reservoir but there have been drilling challenges. This disappointment meant that the share price has slumped since the end of July, but it is still more than 300% ahead of the start of the award period. Drilling has begun on a third - vertical - well which could cost $3.75 million. This will be important for further share price progress. Best use of AIM Conviviality (CVR) Conviviality (CVR) has been transformed in the three years or so it has been on AIM. Acquisitions have given the owner of the Bargain Booze chain of off-licenses a wider spread of activities in both the on-trade and the off-trade. The acquisition of Matthew Clark, a respected name that is more than two centuries old, was probably the most important of the deals. Figures for the year to 1 May 2016 show a 137% increase in revenues to £864.5 million, while underlying pre-tax profit was 124% ahead at £21.7 million. More importantly, earnings per share were 27% higher at 14.2p a share. These figures included Matthew Clark for nearly seven months. Wine merchant Bibendum was acquired after the period so there is more to come from the acquisitions this year. Best technology MaxCyte Inc (MXCT) Cell engineering business MaxCyte Inc (MXCT) has been on AIM since the end of March 2016 and has already scooped the technology award. US-based MaxCyte sells the cell engineering products and services that it has developed to biopharmaceutical companies involved in developing drugs, cell therapies and gene editing services. MaxCyte is generating revenues – a 30% increase to $5.5 million £(£4.5 million) in the first half of 2016 - although it is losing money. MaxCyte is expected to be able to grow at 20% a year. The cash raised in the flotation is helping to increase marketing in existing countries and moves into other regions. MaxCyte is developing a platform for immune-oncology treatments called CARMA, which will be used to develop CAR therapies in T-cells for a range of cancer indications. AIM transaction of the year Breedon Group (BREE) The £336 million acquisition of Hope Construction Materials completed an eight-year journey for the holding company from a shell to the UK's largest construction materials supplier – even after selling 14 ready-mixed concrete plants to please the competition authorities. I thought that Breedon (BREE) was the stand out on the shortlist. Although the transaction was announced before the end of 2015 it did not complete until 1 August 2016. Even so, Breedon had already started to progress its integration plans. The acquisition provides a better product mix for Breedon which will not be as dependent on aggregates. Asphalt, cement and ready-mixed concrete are the other main areas of the business. The group is benefiting from infrastructure spending and further acquisitions are likely as well as higher capital spending to increase capacity. AIM growth business of the year Fevertree Drinks (FEVR) This is the first time this award has featured. Spirits mixers supplier Fevertree Drinks (FEVR) has graduated from 2015 newcomer of the year to growth business of 2016. Fevertree has grown organically which makes its performance even more impressive. Cash generated from operations enabled the cash position to improve by £7 million in the first half of 2016 even though £2.65 million was paid out in dividends. Fevertree floated at 134p a share and the current share price is seven times that level even though early backers have sold some or all of their stakes, Fevertree is an international business with three-fifths of revenues outside the UK. Best research Liberum Broker Liberum has won this award for the first time. It has built up a good reputation for its research and it is broker to best newcomer Hotel Chocolat (see below). International company of the year Somero Enterprises Inc (SOM) Just like last year's winner, Hutchison China Meditech, Somero Enterprises (SOM) Inc has won the international company of the year award at the second attempt, as I thought that they should do, having been on the shortlist in 2015. The concrete levelling equipment manufacturer continues to grow strongly helped by its geographical spread. Not all countries are growing, but overall revenues and margins are improving. North America remains a strong market and China sales are picking up. The full-year profit is forecast to rise from $17.6 million to $20.3 million and, of course, this is worth more than ever for UK investors following the decline of the pound. Somero also offers a growing dividend. Best newcomer Hotel Chocolat (HOTC) Premium chocolates retailer Hotel Chocolat (HOTC) got off to a good start on AIM due to its high profile among retail investors. Although £56 million was raised in the flotation back in May, only £12 million of this was new money for the company. As well as manufacturing its own chocolates, the company owns a cocoa plantation in Saint Lucia. There is still plenty of scope to expand in the UK and there are also plans to open more outlets overseas. However, international expansion has been patchy and Denmark is being used as a test market for moving into new territories. Hotel Chocolat is profitable and cash generative. Entrepeneuer of the year Diana Hunter, Conviviality (CVR) When Diana Hunter guided Conviviality Retail, as it was then known, onto AIM in July 2013 its main focus was the Bargain Booze franchise off-licence and convenience store chain. She had spent nine years at Waitrose before taking over the business and was behind the strategy to take Conviviality into the on-trade. The largest on-trade drinks distributor Matthew Clark was acquired in 2015 for £200 million. In 2014-15, Matthew Clark generated revenues of £811.2 million. The integration of the business is ahead of schedule. This acquisition was followed by the purchase of wine merchant Bibendum for £60 million, including debt. Bibendum's annual revenues were £270 million, taking the group's pro forma revenues to more than £1.4 billion. Company of the year Restore (RST) Restore (RST) was beaten to the Best Use of AIM award by Conviviality, but it secured the top award. The document storage firm has been a consolidator in its sector under the leadership of Charles Skinner. Recent interims show a 35% increase in pre-tax profit to £9.6m and the interim dividend was increased by one-third to 1.33p a share. The disposal of the Ireland-based offshoot of a recent acquisition has helped to reduce debt by £27.8 million and provide scope for further acquisitions. Since the end of June, PHS Data Solutions has been acquired, which has made Restore the second biggest document shredding business in the UK, as well as boosting the records management and scanning operations. The second half of the year has started well and a 2016 profit of around £21 million is expected.
06/10/2016
21:40
master rsi: 15 stocks with substantial upside - By Interactive Investor | Thu, 6th October 2016 - 15:16 15 stocks with substantial upside With the FTSE 100 (UKX) near an all-time high and economic data strong, the UK's reaction to Brexit has shocked many City pundits. But, as we edge closer to "B-day" - or at least when Article 50 is triggered next year - and continue to negotiate the terms of how we leave the union, uncertainties persist. In response, broker Barclays has tweaked its Top Pick portfolio, which it reckons can deliver 23% upside. "The subsequent unprecedented monetary reaction from the Bank of England, the benign and ongoing positive data surprises, and the corporate world's rapid move to head off panic and promote the benefits of weaker sterling have subdued volatility and restored the uneasy equilibrium between uninspiring earnings growth, late-cycle dynamics and a lack of investable alternatives which seem to continuously loop back to equities as the 'last man standing'," says the Barclays team in a meaty 50-page note. Underpinned by cheap valuations, Barclays is "cautiously" confident equities will continue to "grind higher" in the fourth quarter, preferring the cyclical sectors consumer discretionary, financials and industrials. Their portfolio of 28 European top picks has 23% potential upside, according to Barclays, and offers a secure 3.2% yield. The energy sector has the most profit potential, while power & utilities have the least upside. Boasting of average earnings per share growth of 17.5% and trading on a price/earnings (PE) multiple of 13.2 times, the portfolio is cheaper than the European index, which trades on a multiple of 14.4. The portfolio has an average return on equity of 22%. Below, we detail the investment case for the 15 London-listed members of the portfolio, which also includes the European quote for consumer groups Unilever (ULVR) and Ahold Delhaize (AHOG), Société; Générale (GLE) and industrials SAFRAN (SAF), BMW (BMW), Vastas Wind Systems, Vinci (DG) and AENA (A44). Retailer Luxottica Group (LUX), tech groups SAP (SAP), Nokia (NOKIA) and Orange (FTE) and Swedish miner Boliden (BDNNY) also made the list. Making way for the new additions Vinci, WPP (WPP), Société; Générale and Unilever, Barclays kicked out ASOS (ASC), Grifols, REX (REX), Linde (LIN) and ING (ING). graph 1 Imperial Brands (3,927p) Target price (TP): 4,400p - Upside: 12% Imperial's (IMB) improving organic sales momentum, profitability and cash generation should underpin double-digit dividend growth over the medium-term. As a sub-sector, tobacco's high barriers to entry and protected profit pool positions it well against risks seen elsewhere in Staples, and Barclays reckons Imperial's margins will continue to outperform, especially in the US. There are some short-term pressures: UK competition, losing a PMI distribution contract and EU regulatory costs. But with its brand migration strategy ahead of target, cost efficiencies on track and currency headwinds set to turn into a benefit, things should get better. Its share of the attractive US market has also stabilised over the last year, with investment to step up a gear. "IMB is trading on a CY 2017E PE of 14.2x, but we believe the c.25% PE discount of Tobacco to Staples in Europe is overdone," say the analysts. BP (473p) TP: 600p - Upside: 27% Barclays has tipped BP shares up to £6 for over three months now, although a lot has happened to confuse the investment case. Restating its bullish view for the oil giant, BP (BP.) trades on 10.8x Barclays' 2017 earnings per share (EPS) guidance, a discount to Shell's (RDSB) 12x. BP has protected its dividend throughout the collapse in oil prices, and the shares now trade with a 6.5% yield, compared to Shell's 6.8%. Repeating its 'overweight' rating, Barclays reckons BP's investment story lies with its imminent production growth, better margins, better efficiency and an ability to grow the portfolio without an acquisition. With oil prices now expected to trade above $50 a barrel in 2017, cash flow should increase by $4.5-5 billion. We covered the story yesterday, read it here. Ophir Energy (79.17p) TP: 125p - Upside: 58% Concerns over the quality of Ophir's (OPHR) Fortuna Floating Liquefied Natural Gas project has caused the group to significantly lag its European peers in the valuation tables, trading at a 45% discount to its tangible net asset value (NAV) compared to the sector's 20% average discount. With a project PV10 breakeven of under $4/million cubic feet (mcf), the project's strong economics position it well to join forces with upstream partners without reducing its 80% stake and keep on track for first gas in 2020. The priority is to ensure midstream partner Golar can deliver the converted vessel and finalise gas sale agreements. Finding an upstream partner to free up capital for other exploration can be put off until after the Final Investment Decision. Taking advantage of low drilling costs, a two-three well campaign could start in early 2017 in Myanmar and Cote d'Ivoire. Petrofac (906p) TP: 1,250p - Upside: 32% With its valuation at multi-year lows, it's not been easy for Petrofac (PFC). Disappointing execution of the Laggan-Tormore project, controversial decision-making, slow order intake, higher working capital and the recent departure of its CFO has weighed on sentiment. But with underlying profitability, a solid order backlog and management's determination to improve cash flow generation, Barclays reckons the fundamental investment case is "intact". 3i (675p) TP: 700p - Upside: 3.7% While the UK economy has surprised most in its strong reaction to the decision to leave the EU, there is no doubt that global macro uncertainties are only going to increase into next year. With the upcoming US elections and invoking Article 50, investors will want an investment sanctuary. Private equity giant 3i (III) is one such safety net, reckons Barclays, boasting of defensive characteristics and strong net asset value growth potential. With strong weighted earnings growth behind its private equity portfolio, the group has promised a 16p base dividend and a proportion of net realisations for 2017. Last year a dividend of 22p was the equivalent of a 3% yield. Prudential (1,441p) TP: 1,648p - Upside: 14% A true bull on the pensions group, Prudential (PRU) is the one true large-cap growth stock in the European insurance sector, reckons Barclays. Of course, it is exposed to industry risks and no investment is truly "safe", but the analyst reckons there is enough underlying growth momentum. With market-leading businesses in Asia, the US and UK, its record of growing earnings by 17% (compound annual growth rate) since 2004 is likely to ease back to 9% over the next five years, but this doesn't cloud Barclays' sentiment. Barclays says: "We believe Prudential is the only large-cap company in the sector with sustainable compound growth over a prolonged period, and that the multiple of 10x FY 2017E earnings does not reflect any premium for this growth." Derwent London (2,486p) TP: 3,500p - Upside: 41% A repeat outperformer of the UK Real Estate Investment Trusts, Derwent London (DLN) delivers returns over that of the London office market. Even though post-Brexit concerns have weighed on sentiment, Barclays reckons the experienced management team can succeed with its £800 per square foot portfolio trading at a 25% discount to sport net asset value. While the analysts don't rubbish concerns over macro uncertainty, they reckons low vacancy rates and limited supply should stop rents falling as low as the share price suggests. Wolseley (4,492p) TP: 5,000p - Upside: 11% Wolseley's (WOS) US business is on the cusp of a multi-year opportunity to expand in its fragmented core and adjacent markets. While a fifth of its sales come from online - and this is growing - 95% of its competitors have no internet offering at all. Delivering 4% US sales growth last year despite headwinds, Barclays is confident in its outlook for 2017. The UK business has so far held the group back, but a new strategy should be able to turn this around. Investors will hope the Nordics division can share the same fate. Even against European uncertainty, earnings should still grow at high-single-digit percentages (on a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) basis). Oxford Instruments (657p) TP: 970p - Upside: 48% While industrial and scientific tool maker Oxford Instruments (OXIG) remains high risk, there is the potential for high reward here, reckons Barclays. 2016 earnings were in line with guidance, but the better-than-expected debt level is likely to have grown again due to its earnout payments and dollar-denominated debt. Still, Barclays reckons the majority of this risk is discounted into the current price. On a positive note, the US research budget outlook looks good and Oxford should benefit from sterling's devaluation. Redrow (405p) TP: 432p - Upside: 7% Unlike some of its peers, housebuilder Redrow (RDW) continues to invest in its own future growth, which should underpin performance further out as the current housing cycle shows no signs of slowing down. Its re-entry into the London housing market includes the recent Colindale scheme that has gross development value of over £1 billion, but the majority of its units will be priced at less than £600,000 - the upper limit of the help to buy scheme. Yes, investors will have to sacrifice near-term dividends, but they will get exposure to a longer-term growth story, says Barclays. Ashtead (1,310p) TP: 1,279p - Upside: 2.4% A key driver of sentiment over equipment rental company Ashtead's (AHT) share price is the health of the American economy, so Barclays' belief that the US is just slowing and not entering a recession should be taken well. With market conditions supportive of the rental industry, the non-residential property market should continue to climb higher, allowing Ashtead to outperform - given its track record. Investors should expect some margin outperformance as its rental stores mature, which is expected to be the share price catalyst. WPP (1,808p) TP: 2,100p - Upside: 16% Over the last ten years, which includes a recession, marketing group WPP has grown organic revenue by 2.8% and EPS by 10% (on a CAGR basis). With recent results ahead of expectations, Barclays reckons management will continue to deliver double-digit EPS growth during times of growth, recession and recovery. The largest listed advertising group, management reckon it will achieve full-year organic growth of over 3% and a 30 basis point jump in margins. While the group trades at a premium, it's deserved reckons Barclays. SSE (1,542p) TP: 1,675p - Upside: 8.6% Kitted out with a sustainable 6% forward dividend yield, diversified business mix and exposure to structural growth in renewable and regulated networks, SSE (SSE) is Barclays' top European Utilities pick. Although there is concern UK supply regulation may become tighter than recent recommendations, the utility group has limited exposure. Even a cancellation of Carbon Price Support will reduce cash profit by just 2%. Paddy Power Betfair (8,820p) TP: 11,500p - Upside: 30% Barclays' favourite in European leisure, the analysts see the Paddy Power Betfair (PPB) brand as the recent merger of the two best quality names in the sector. Its multi-year growth story includes the potential for strong free cash flow growth and subsequent capital returns. Strong EPS growth will be underpinned by high operational gearing and no balance sheet constraints. "Scale is key and the business operates in structurally growing markets, with a strong management team and leading technology platform that can benefit from centralised technology and resources to develop new products to segment and target consumers in order to take market share," says Barclays. Cineworld (572p) TP: 665p - Upside: 16% With consumers still going to the cinema, even during periods of economic weakness, Cineworld's (CINE) defensive nature looks attractive. With limited supply growth in the industry, minimal exposure to the National Living Wage and attractive cash flow, Barclays is bullish on the group. Its cash flow allows it to finance its rollout, refurbishments and 55% payout ratio, while still paying down debt. EPS is expected to increase 10% over from 2015-2018, and its 2017 dividend currently yields 3.6%. "This offers investors double-digit total shareholder returns assuming no change in the PE multiple," they add.
05/10/2016
21:32
master rsi: How BP can narrow the valuation gap - By Harriet Mann | Wed, 5th October 2016 - 14:49 How BP can narrow the valuation gap Less than three months ago, Barclays upgraded its price target for BP (BP.) to 600p. The broker still thinks the shares are worth that money, but a lot has happened since then to cloud the investment picture. BP currently trades on 10.8 times Barclays' earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2017, a discount to Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB) on 12 times. The prospective dividend yield is broadly comparable at 6.5% and 6.8% respectively. "Although we see a clear valuation argument for owning BP shares, we do recognise that valuation alone has rarely proved enough for individual companies in the oil sector to outperform, with the stocks having the ability to remain cheap for long periods of time," writes analyst Lydia Rainforth. "Yet the coming 18 months for BP should see the results of a multi-year improvement programme, making a meaningful difference to the bottom line without the drag of both elevated Macondo-related payments and restructuring charges that remain over the course of 2016." Rainforth repeats her 'overweight' rating on the oil major, arguing that four key messages from BP's field trip to Azerbaijan in June have been overlooked: imminent production growth, better margins, better efficiency, and an ability to grow the portfolio without an acquisition. Rainforth still thinks BP should be trading 28% higher at 600p, not seen since Deepwater HorizonOil prices are now expected to trade above $50 a barrel (/bl) in 2017 following OPEC's shock agreement to some level of production cut for the first time in eight years. BP's share price has surged 9% since the news, filling the gap left after BP's double-digit summer slide. Trading at an intra-day high of 470p, Rainforth still thinks the shares should be trading 28% higher at the 600p not seen since the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster in 2010 - that cost BP an eye-watering $61.6 billion (£46 billion). Chief executive Bob Dudley has been adamant he would "rebalance the financial framework" to sustain the dividend he increased just before the industry collapsed. It's been controversial, but efficiency has improved - cash costs have fallen by $5.6 billion over the last year. Rainforth reckons the reduction in capex and planned project start-ups will also help cover future dividends from organic cash flow with oil prices at $50-55 a barrel in 2017, just a tad higher than where they are now. With a simpler portfolio and more efficient operations across both its upstream - exploration and production - and downstream - refining and marketing - businesses, BP's production and cash flow should surge. It wants to add 800,000 barrels of oil (kboe/d) to 2015's daily production by 2020, with 500kboe/d of capacity available in just 15 months' time. Watch out for its North Sea projects Quad 204 and Clair Ridge in the first half of 2017 and the Khazzan project in Oman. Not only will these growth and other projects increase production, but they'll also be more profitable. Expect operating cash margins 35% better than the current portfolio. In a $50/bl world, this should increase cash flow by $4.5-5 billion, with total pre-tax cash flow estimated to be around $7-8 billion. Despite the widely-held belief to the contrary, BP also has enough options for growth past 2020 "without the need for a big acquisition", upstream chief executive Bernard Looney said at the field trip. What constitutes as "big" is clearly up for debate, but this should ease some concerns. "This improving financial and operational performance comes at a point when the share price is offering a yield of 6.5% and over 30% potential upside to our 600p per share price target," says Rainforth. "As such we see a material opportunity for the share price to continue to rerate. BP is our Top Pick in the sector and we rate the stock 'overweight'."
11/8/2016
21:52
master rsi: When will sloth-like Lloyds make its move? - By Alistair Strang | Thu, 11th August 2016 - 10:23 Lloyds Banking taxpayer share price technical analysis flat trading moves target We last commented in our headline feature against Lloyds (LLOY) nearly three weeks ago. The intervening period has witnessed the share price moving by sod all. It was trading at 56p on 21 July and on 10 August, it closed the session at 55.43p. The intervening period experienced a bandwidth of around five pence, whereas the FTSE 100 itself has enjoyed growth of 2.5% and a bandwidth of 250 points. As can be guessed, we're frustrated at the share's lack of activity. Even RBS (RBS) & Barclays (BARC) are showing early signs of some reasonable activity. The funny thing about Lloyds also comes from its sloth-like behaviour, as this tends to give a clue as to what is planned. The situation now, allegedly, is of movement above just 55.87p mid-price provoking growth toward 57.2p. Given the tight spread the share tends to enjoy, this is actually fairly reasonable but, as the chart below highlights, such a small movement takes the price above the immediate downtrend and into a region where 64p becomes our next point of interest. graph 1 This 64p thing will prove to be of considerable interest to our in-house nerd. There's a downtrend (dashed blue) which dates back to 2007 and we've no idea yet whether it will prove important. We suspect it shall prove to be an issue, as closure above this level will make it difficult for us to avoid strong speculation about the future. There is a further downtrend since 1999 which currently intercepts the share price at 88p and we're comfortable this is a real trend, one which, if bettered, should herald the start of an optimistic story against this share. The "problem" the market faces in the near term is a lack of excuses stopping the price increasing if the share actually were to close above the dashed blue line, as we'd expect a challenge against the price's long-term downtrend. Obviously, this attitude only works if you accept the stance of "the market" trying to stop a share price increasing in value... The alternate situation Lloyds therefore faces is an attempt at a slowdown. Movement now below 51p justifies eyebrow action, as it could easily provoke reversal toward 46.75p, very effectively double-bottoming the share. Aside from the unpleasant detail of closure below 46.75p pointing at 33p or less. For now though, Lloyds share price seems on the edge of being forced to "show and tell".
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