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Real-Time news about Universal Dir. (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|ialwayswinatmonopoly: Share price will melt down to circa 20p within the next 4 weeks. The price went up before the announcement as news of the deal had obviously leaked and people were hoping of a 'premium'. The announcement came and the 'premium' didn't.
The shares are over valued at 28p and are good value at 20p. (Cheap at 14p)|
|ngen yap: Yep - think Andrew Flatt may have now completely sold out (no need for RNS anymore since below significant holdings) and hopefully, this will clear the path for share price to rise easier. The MM had been having it easy because Wayne's and private investors' buys were supplied by Andrew Flatt's holdings.
Really like the Bartercard investors and this could be a good turnaoround company to invest in at this level.
|davidlloyd: However cautious I feel we should be with this one there is an interesting increase in volume (buying) which is particularly uncharacteristic of the behaviour on this stock for a long time now - plot volumnes agains share price for all available data and you will see what I mean. The particulalry poor performance of the old manamgnet may be lingering in peoples minds and blinkering us to a potential nice little earner now. Big buying supports the thought that the nadir has been reached. Any positive news, (and I think there will be some given increased buying - how do people know???) will send this North IMO. Bombed out company on the mend. Price currently reflects historical (not actual or even potential) performance. Keep watching this space and as always DYOR.
PS Kiss of death - I am calling the bottom today - onwards and upwards from here on.|
|ngen yap: DL, any info on David Wright? There's David Wright, MP of Telford! :- )
Anyway, I think we should assess the share price today as a new investment ie. would you buy the share at this price? The interims should be out in the next two weeks, deadline is end of the year (3 months from 30/9/04). We'll certainly get a better picture of current trading and prospects.
But, I am encouraged that recent placing was at 10p, which should be the base of current share price As I said before, to raise finance, the company would have been required to present their current trading performance and forecasts. So, new investors must have been happy to take a punt at these levels. I feel if the company is able to deliver say, £500k EBITA, we can easily double from current share price
I was a little surprised with the recent sells by PIs - I don't understand why one would sell at this price nor time - but that's my personal opinion and those who sold must have a valid reason, one I would like to learn about.
Let's see what this week brings...good luck.|
|ngen yap: Dell, fully appreciate your points and in most parts I agree. The only thing I would add is that having spoken to Paul Jacques, I understand the PPP was sold by previous vendor because he had little financial experience and therefore, it resulted in the company having financial strain. However, I was assured that the acquisition is for the business and assets of PPP. Therefore, UDI only acquired the turnover and GP.
I attach an e-mail sent to Edward Adams and his response (something I normally do not do but feel it is now appropriate given the circumstances). You will note that I have spotted the potential share issue @ < 10p but it is not for sure. Also, I am comforted that EA admitted faults and wishes to bring company forward ASAP!! (as he said in the AR - results were poor!) I think it is either "stick with it and hope" or "sell @ negligible value". For me, I am willing to chance it turning positive in the next twelve months.
My e-mail dated 27/8:
Dear Mr Adams,
Trust you are well.
I had the privilege of speaking to Paul Jacques on the 18th August in your absence. The main reason I called at the time was to enquire about the release of UDI's annual report even before a preliminary results announcement was made in the stock excahnge. I was, of course unhappy about this because my shares are held in a nominee account and therefore, rely on RNS to inform me of events. If a fellow BBer had not posted the fact that the AR was received in the post, I would not have even known of its existence! Paul has since sent me the annual report and an RNS was issued the following day, even though it wasn't what I expected. Please extend my thanks to him for his prompt actions.
I had a good chat with Paul and understand the difficulties faced by the company last year. My understanding is that you have now built a good and balanced, albeit young, team which hopefully will steer the company forward. I also understand from Paul that you were away on a business trip to Italy to negotiate certain deals in the pet product business. I hope you have managed to secure the distribution deal with Imac and the change in ownership of PPP will have no effect on this.
While I am disappointed with the results, I am trying to understand the position the company was in. You will recall, I did express my opinion that the deal struck for the acquisition of UCP was risky in relation to reliance on key personnel. I am surprised this was not flagged up in the due diligence or that the company had not taken steps to protect itself eg. earn-out, deferred consideration, contracts etc. Anyhow, that's in the past and we can only learn from it and move forward.
The new acquisition in PPP certainly looks like a GOOD one. Based on the information provided, it would appear that PPP's sales and costs are reasonably predictable. Unlike UCP which relies on availability of stock and ability to sell them on, PPP runs a "pure" distribution deal, more akin to import and direct sales. As mentioned above, it is key that we secure the distribution deals with major suppliers eg. Imac, Marchioro etc. I note that there is an earn out on this acquisition and the vendor will be staying with the business as consultant for 2 years. One question I did ask Paul, which perhaps you can confirm, is why did Jonathan Bowes sell out?
I have read the numbers in the annual report several times over. Sad to say, while UDI is not my only investment, it has become a "quest" for me that I eventually realise some capital gains out my shareholding. I am sure you will like to see your 12%+ holding increase in value too! I think the numbers are pretty much self explanatory. One thing did make me curious. Under note 3, operating lease rentals - l&b for 2004 was £343k. But in note 26, continuing lease commitment is £125k. Was the difference due to the additional spend as a result of the "unsorted goods" and Andromeda?
It would be nice if you could provide me with an approximate figure for the overspend (labour and storage costs) due to the "unsorted goods".
One final point if I may. I note that it is the intention of the company, during the AGM, to approve resolutions to:
a) Increase authorised share capital;
b) Sub-divide 10p shares to 1p and 9p ordinary and deferred shares respectively; and
c) give authority for the issue of £500,000 shares.
To be honest with you, I am a little concerned to learn about the sub-division AGAIN. This implies to me that the company has little confidence that it can raise finance @ > 10p, which makes me wonder about your confidence of the business and the current share price (which is at its lowest since I started investing). Today's share price is equivalent to 0.12p pre-consoildation. Should the company be issuing shares at < 10p in the near future, this equates to < 0.10p pre-consolidation. What a massive loss in value to us shareholders who stuck with it, including yours.
If UDI is indeed going to make a profit in FY 2005 and going forward, surely we can justify a multiple which in turn justifies equity value > 10p per share? You have much more experince than me in this field having been a fund manager and research director. But, to my knowledge, raising finance is a combination of being able to sell your product (ie. UDI shares and its prospects) and demand.
Pardon me for the long e-mail. Just a few of my thoughts.
Hope to hear from you.
With kind regards,
His response dated 3/9:
I agree with you about issuing equity below 10p and this would be unfortunate.
On the accounting points if you could revert to Paul Jacques I would be grateful.
On other matters I have disappointed myself and others. My objective is to put the company on a strong footing ASAP with new management and sustainable direction.
|ngen yap: Topvest, thank you for your post. As I hold my shares in a nominee account, I have not received my annual report and as such, wouldn't have known of its release other than through your post.
I have since had a 20 minutes chat with the FD of the company, Paul Jacques. He informs me that the RNS was released to the NOMAD and is checking the reason why it has not been published. So, I'm not overly concerned with the "mishap". More interestingly, we spoke about the business and way forward. Paul confessed that last year was a bad year for the company in that the exiting management made a large purchase of 9,000 pallets which required additional casual labour and warehousing space to accomodate. These do not come cheap and resulted in additional expenses and eventually a stock write off. However, my understanding is that the Chairman has been built a solid team going forward and hopefully, they will make an impact.
The warehousing and logistics of the PPP business are, as we speak, being transferred to UCP's Market Drayton base, as reported in the trading statement. He believes the acquisition of PPP is complementary to UCP's business and is in effect an acquisition of c. £2m turnover and gross profit. As I understand it, the Chairman is now negotiating to consolidate PPP's position in the pet products market.
I appreciate there's nothing significantly new above. But like any other business, it will take time to reconfigure businesses post acquisition and I for one, am willing to be patient to see if the management can finally deliver shareholder value. The current share price is certainly low enough for me not to sell and in fact, if you hold the opinion that the company will be profitable in the next financial year, this will be a good investment at this level.
I do not agree with your point re. leak of news on late profit warning. For one, there has never been an announcement to suggest there will be profits last FY. Of course, we were all hopeful and I was too, expecting a profit. The loss of £300k before goodwill and stock write off was a little disappointing, but should the inefficiencies form prior year be trimmed, we will see a profit in the future. Another reason why I disagree with the "leak of news" is because the share price fell on light volume. If you look through the trades over the past few months, the net sells couldn't have been too much. Just that, every day, the total of a few thousand shares get sold, and with low liquidity in the share, it becomes very easy for the MM to mark down. Similarly, the price will increase quickly if there's consistent small volume buys.
I am equally frustrated with the slow progress being made. But am willing to risk not selling @ 11p for a potentially greater return in future.
It will be nice to see some director buys post prelims.
Good luck and thanks for post again.|
|ngen yap: Yes - absolutely terrible. Looking at the spread, which is 5p at the moment or nearly 33% of offer price, this must be one of the most illiquid stock at the moment. Which probably goes a long way in explaining the dip in share price on small volume.
It really wouldn't surprise me if the management proposes an MBO to take advantage of the low value and make a further bundle of ££! But any MBO must be a premium to this.
£660k to own this company - UCP made this level of profits in the last FY alone!!|
|simonevans: You would think the FD would get the results out before going on holiday! Maybe the results were so bad he needed a holiday before finishing them! Poor management and share price looks to me like the market knows that the results are rubbish.|
|ialwayswinatmonopoly: Watch the volume of shares trade in the coming weeks. Word on the street is that they have just secured a deal with Great Universal Stores to soak up their 'off stock'. I honestly don't know the full details but will try to get more on this as soon as I can. I don't know if UDI are acquiring their stock overhang or are buying their 'returns' but the deal will mean that UDI will obtain an additional GBP2M stock PA.
The effect on the share price will depend on the details of the deal but I know the people at UDI are laughing their heads off as the stock is been practically given away!.
With the price of the shares at the moment just off their all time low, now might be the right time to top up.
I'll report back when the full are know (unless of course a news release beats me to it)|
|ngen yap: Dear all,
Just thought I should share this with anyone interested to know. UDI has finally set up its own website as follows:
Let's hope this company is going to turnaround and this will be reflected in the share price.
Must be great value for money now at 39p. In fact I recently bought some at 37.5p. At a market cap of 1.68m with only 4.5m shares in issue (with > 40% held), these will rocket easily when it does.
Looking forward to the interim results, which will incorporate UCP trading.
Universal Dir. share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange