Universal Coal Share Discussion Threads

[jeffsmith] 24/10/2005 10:51

More buying by GAM LONDON LIMITED - now own 7.81%.
JS

[jeffsmith] 17/10/2005 12:53

GAM LONDON LIMITED have now upped their stake in UCL to a 7.67% shareholding (14/10/05) paying £1.30 per share. Takeover approach is in being - interesting times!
JS

[hounddog1] 13/10/2005 18:30

rambutan2 - good quality institutes also managed to lose their customers a great deal of money during the hyper hype days of the internet boom....

jimlad - good point re contract values. Maybe there is an FX angle that is not broken out in the figures? Also this is a very competitve market and pricing is under severe pressure - just look at the mobile phone price war in the UK alone.

Also, EU is putting a great deal of pressure on the mobile operators to lower their v. high roaming tarrifs - and these have been coming down significantly. Just look at Vodafone's new Passport roaming fees - flat rate of 75p and then same charge / use of minutes as a national call. Very good deal by the way for those abroad alot of the time! Makes a change from £1+ a minute!!

Therefore it is only logical that operators will be passing on the pain to their suppliers when will this be factored into UCL's business?

Also where is the growth from UCL? Can't remember a serious operator joining for a while now. The proof will become clear when this last year's operating figures are released.

One thing puzzles me however, why would the CEO and MD consistently sell so many shares if the future is so rosy? Proper owners of successful companies don't sell out on the cheap just a few years after starting out!

[rambutan2] 13/10/2005 10:53

i dont see it going for under 150p.
unless, things arent as rosy as expected.
good quality instit money has bought into this in recent months...

[boadicea] 13/10/2005 10:44

jimlad - I have assumed (dangerous perhaps!) that H2 earnings will be at least as good as H1 with a probability of about 2.8pps giving around 5p for the year.
A growth rate like that warrants a high p/e tempered by its being a small AIM stock. Throw in a significant t/o prospect (I am referring to the view pre yesterday's announcement) and I would not expect the share price to be any less than 100p, at which my estimate of prospective p/e is 20.
At 130p, based on annualising 2005H1 profits, the p/e is 30 - albeit on a sub-normal tax charge which will probably remain sub-normal for next year also.
On my estimate of 5pps for 2005, this falls to 26.

Of course, if absorbed into a competitors operation with a large part of £2M overheads and operating expenses eliminated or shared, the effective pbt to them is likely to be in excess of £2.5M or 10pps after 30% tax. How much a predator would 'offer' depends on whether paper or cash and their own current p/e. £1.50 per share does not look out of bounds.
All imho and dyor - perhaps I'm just a starry eyed optimist.

[jimlad] 13/10/2005 00:26

Boadicea,
Over recent months UCL have anounced several contract gains yet at no time have they sugested a valuation for any of them, until some results are forth coming one can only guese a vigure,However to anounce a posible aquasition sugest to me that they are making some money somewhere.

Jimlad

[srpactive] 12/10/2005 20:48

boadicea

Quite interesting mkt cap £20m with rtd raising
a further £18m debt facility with further cash
available of £3m after todays announcement,
i would suspect the share price to stay around
137p as it has been resistance in the recent past
but if i am wrong and 137p approx breaks no past
resistance and who knows from there.

pe 68 could be a bit rich for cc though.

hope that helps i will go back under my RTD rock.



dyor all

regards

active

[boadicea] 12/10/2005 20:42

hounddog - If you hold and think the share price is more than co is worth then you should sell. Its value lies in the growth rate and margin with no cash worries to hold it back. The key to getting out is spotting when the growth is about to stall.
Anyway, it looks as if valuation is out of our hands for the present.

[hounddog1] 12/10/2005 20:24

on what basis is this company worth 130+p? Easy money being put into a 'good' story that otherwise would sit on deposit? I must be missing something?

[diogenesj] 12/10/2005 19:37

ITL has been suggested as a possible buyer.

[boadicea] 12/10/2005 19:11

In case anyone should think I had inside info - I didn't. I certainly didn't expect my speculation to come home so soon.
Just occasionally, I suppose, one can be lucky and buy at exactly the right moment (Monday afternoon @110p to be precise.)
Now we just have to hope it follows through.

[ppowerscourt] 12/10/2005 18:55

Who's the suitor?

[diogenesj] 12/10/2005 17:57

Well, well, very cheering on a dull day. :-)

[ppowerscourt] 12/10/2005 17:07

No doubt, UCL is a strong company, I see now.

[rambutan2] 12/10/2005 16:35

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

well well well!!!!!!!!!!

[boadicea] 12/10/2005 10:35

Sentiment remains positive this a.m. against the general market trend.
Deals of ~£30K are not small investors dabbling.
Look like all buys if you adjust for the publication delay on the deals over 6xNMS.

[telecomstrader] 11/10/2005 18:32

wouldnt billing services (bill) be the one?

[boadicea] 11/10/2005 08:54

hounddog1 - You're reading more into my comment than it actually says.

I am not aware of any bid talk specific to UCL. However, it has found a rapidly exploitable niche in the payment processing sector which has seen two takeover offers in the past few weeks. The first was Cybersource making an offer for a small US outfit that had encountered security problems (forget name but can look up) and then last week's announcement by RTD whose target is as yet unnamed. (Suppose it could possibly be UCL but not very likely.) I have just rememberd also the TRX takeover of XNC and others - they have a voracious appetite atm, although UCL is not quite in their line.
Companies that use electronic systems can usually increase volume at minimal expense and greatly increased profit because consolidation gives the turnover of two companies for the overheads of one. Don't forget that payment processing/settlement is an international business which is one of the reasons companies outsource it to specialists.

Regarding your 130p share price hopes, the current rate of growth would justify it alone, imo - provided that the market perceived that it would be maintained. I think the recent dip probably has more to do with the investigation of director dealings in the shares of the company. Anyway, it looks as if the dip (if not the investigation) may now be in the past as no further bad vibes have surfaced.

[hounddog1] 11/10/2005 01:48

Thanks ppowerscourt - have been away but am keeping an eye on CDL.

boadicea - what news of this outside bid target?

Who, where and why? Given UCL's balance sheet is this so called bid talk already in the price? Or, as just recently speculation could push UCL back up to 130+ territory?

[boadicea] 10/10/2005 18:15

Don't be fooled by the delayed trades posting. The only probable sell today was the initial 3000. All 110p trades were 'buys', the last of which at 15.14h appears to have caused the tick up.
Looks as though 110p support has held so may quietly top up further. At this market volume it's not necessary to chase it and a prolonged quiet period may see it drift for a while.
There is an outside chance imo that this could become a bid target. Some consolidation is due and now commencing in this market segment.

[wiganer] 07/10/2005 08:36

UCL testing that 110p support level.

[ppowerscourt] 06/10/2005 23:41

Hounddog1: OFF-TOPIC

Read the CDL thread. The CDL vs. JKX price per barrel was not a strictly fair quote by the CEO due to the mix of oil and gas per barrel. Hydrocarbon contains both. After these two days' fall in the sector, any producer would seem a good punt now!

My latest excellent find is CDS oil and gas, IPO in Paraguay's High Chaco Basin. currently 10% below IPO open. Starts Drilling on 18th Oct. Jeremy Eng involved.

[ppowerscourt] 06/10/2005 23:15

Off-topic:

Need a big favour!----Could anyone of you start a thread on I-mate, epic: IMTE asap? I can't do it.
.

[wiganer] 06/10/2005 13:23

Interesting that on a day when small caps are getting hammered that UCL is flat. Would have expected maybe to see recent slide continue on a day like this.

Then again, 110p was that the institutions paid for director shares back in August, so maybe it will form a support level...

[rambutan2] 06/10/2005 01:17

hadnt noticed this lot before...