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Real-Time news about Union (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|el chupacabra: why is ADVFN's share price near a 52 week low mich?|
|wstirrup: I think I agree with llwyd, that investors really don't necessarily need access to up-to-the-second live information, but TRADERS DO.
And isn't the short-termism and volatility of the markets that has got us into this financial mess?
There are sites like:
and news web-sites in Africa, Asia, and the former Soviet Union that inform opinion, that provide information on economic policy, commodities, Precious metals, Politicians and Political economy, which bears on ALL markets.
Darren Winters reckons that 80% of a company's share-price is down to non-company factors (either the economy, politics, finance, or legal domains, impacting the company and its price) and which has ultimately led to "Crony Capitalism" as it has been called.
I've been a contributor to ADVFN since 2001, and setup several threads, and I like to think the boards have in some small way contributed to the success and discussion of these matters and of the companies I've written about.
This anti-spamming is killing the goose that laid the silver egg... (I know it was Gold, but silver was/is less valuable, and more in keeping with ADVFN's success rating so far.)
The number of worthwhile web-sites is in the Millions, if not BILLIONS, and ADVFN's database could end up being almost as big as Googles, if it wants to whitelist all the ones that serve some useful function and is growing by the hour, day, week, month, year upon year...
I suggest they abandon this before it kills the company. I agree the bulletin boards and their implementation is what makes ADVFN the number 1 site I visit. Take away that, and will it be still worthwhile? MAYBE...MAYBE NOT.
Can ADVFN take THAT risk?
|nobull: Hi, encarter. No, but I've added another 1m. (Total now 3,120k). The big worry is the other big shareholders might try to take this private: they surely just want that Mehdiabad zinc project (11 million tonnes of recoverable zinc, not to mention all that copper, lead and silver). The MOU signed suggests the Iranians really do want our expertise. Regarding the failed rights issue, I know for a fact that Lundin had the cash to take it up if it had wanted to. (Hudbay minerals took up a placing in Lundin just a couple of weeks ago, which must have bolstered Lundin's cash position - see the LUndin Mining announcements on stockhouse.com). The Jorc resource of Bon's part of the phosphate project started off at 196.1m tonnes of P205. Union's Sandpiper project next to BON's should be even better. Since the combined JV is targeting 3m tonnes of phosphate per annum, that is one hell of a lot of revenue for a tiny £2m mkt cap company. It is very exciting and very frightening at the same time. The rights document allows the directors to place any unsubscribed shares with anyone they please, and I did email them to tell them I would buy any at the rights price (up to £35,000's worth) but they never replied) and the web site has gone off line, and I know from the last Quarterly cash flow statement they must be down to their last AUS$60,000 of cash. They have no debt, but the assets on the balance sheet aren't exactly the sort of stuff you can sell off for cash (e.g. a load of drill core samples?). So I don't know what will happen. Vayama on hotcopper thinks Dr Reid could ask some of his Arab friends to chip in. After all $2m isn't a lot. Another alternative is they announce the phosphate jorc, and that could easily cause the share price to go above the rights price, thus enabling the unsubscribed rights to be placed very easily indeed. Hard to know what to do. Should I be buying more? Or is this a dastardly stitch up? We'll see.
Below is an article about Bon's announcement yesterday. Meob is next door to Union's Sandpiper project, and as you know both projects have been pooled into a JV with UCL and BON both owning 42.5% each and the balance being owned by a local Namibian investor, Tungeni Investments, which helps reduce the permitting risk: one of UCL's phospate licences needs extending.
Phosphate now the new sparkler for Bonaparte Diamond Mines.
A change of name could be in the wind for Australian explorer Bonaparte Diamond Mines now that it has a tangible marine phosphate resource off the Namibian coast.
Author: Ross Louthean
Posted: Monday , 05 Jan 2009
West Perth-based Bonaparte Diamond Mines NL (ASX: BON) announced today it has a JORC compliant inferred mineral resource of 196.1 million tonnes grading 15.8% phosphate at its Meob maritime project and projected it would have a resource update early this year following further "higher grade" sampling, including deeper core drilling.
The positive announcement on a good trading day on the Australian Securities Exchange saw Bonaparte's shares lift marginally to A8.5 cents.
Bonaparte's managing director Michael Woodborne said the resource estimate is based predominantly on coverage from grab samples which have a lower grade than the deeper sediments that have been accessed to date.
The mineralisation is open and thickens into an adjacent tenement which will be tested early this year.
The Meob project is part of a recently announced joint venture between Bonaparte (42.5%, and Namibian partners Tungeni Investments cc (15%) and Union Resources Ltd (42.5%). The joint venture incorporates Union's adjacent Sandpiper marine phosphate prospect.
Woodborne said the estimation of wet bulk density of submarine sediments is a difficult exercise, and no attempt has yet been made to measure the bulk density of Namibian phosphatic sediments either directly or indirectly through geophysical methods.
"The preliminary inferred mineral resource estimate for the Meob project is in line with our expectations," he said.
"We have determined that simple wet screening to sub-1mm produces enrichment to levels of up to 26% P2O5, indicating that the Meob project has significant phosphate resource potential for rapid development into production. These results bode well for our joint venture with Union."
He said testing will move into 800 square kilometre area in the adjacent Sandpiper prospect.
In the 1980s and 1990s Woodborne spent most of his time based in Cape Town consulting to the marine and coastal diamond operators and explorers.
After moving to Australia in the early 2000s he worked as a consultant before taking up the helm at Bonaparte when it was floated, originally with its main aspirations of finding marine diamond deposits in the Bonaparte Gulf of far northern Western Australia. Fortunately, Woodborne also put the company into the offshore diamond scene in Namibia where he had worked as an operations manager, for the Bonaparte Gulf quest proved to be a great disappointment.|
|nobull: "Any news on that placing?!"
Yes, the rights issue failed. It raised about 9% of the required funds, so they are looking at alternative sources of funding. The RNS came out in Australia last night, but they haven't got around to issuing it here yet!
The company has no debt, and is trading at about 25% of NAV (where NAV is just a pile of capitalised drilling costs and a BFS perhaps?) assuming a share price of 0.5 cents. Hopefully we won't be put into voluntary liquidation, what with Norman Lamont on the Board, but I presume there will be substantial dilution now. The phosphate Jorc resource is due out any time now. I am hoping for in excess of 60m tonnes. They will use airlift pumps to suck the phosphatic sediment off the seabed (no impellers to clog, and of course it isn't rocket science: just Achimedes Principle?: the weight of the air bubbles, phosphatic sediment and water in the vacuuming tube is at any one time lighter than the weight of the displaced water, so the whole lot rises up the vacuuming tube off the seabed into the ship. 300m water depth is not a problem (airlift pumps work down to 1500m with no problem apparently). You can test the principle with an aquarium fish tank pump at home). Film from youtube here of an airlift pump working (compressed air is bubbled down to the seabed (plastic bucket in the film) and then rises up the vacuuming tube, which causes the suction effect).
and if you are wondering how they will unload the barges full of phosphate sediment, I guess this is the sort of equipment they will use. I am hoping for production to start in 2011.
The really good thing about sucking up phosphate sediment up off the seabed is that most investors think it is all just impractical pie in sky stuff for idiots, and that it will never be a practical economic proposition. The research note for BGC Capital Partners makes reference to this: something about the "expanding information curve"! People won't believe it is possible until it happens! And of course by then the share price ought to have multibagged!
A piece here from the Australian about phosphates dated 22/12/08
Article from The Australian...
KING Mohammed VI of Morocco, it was reported recently, is the fifth wealthiest royal in the world with his personal $US1.5 billion fortune based largely on selling phosphate, of which his country is the world's largest producer.
He -- and Morocco -- plan to remain the Saudi Arabia of phosphate. The North African state is apparently refusing to budge from its asking price of $US400 a tonne of phosphate rock.
Rock has gone from $US200/t this time last year to $US400 in March; $US500 in June. There have been reports that Jordan has been selling at $US350/t but, if the Moroccans stick to their guns, the market will be tight.
In the short term this might not matter, as the world in recent months has been under-fertilising. The cost of fertilisers, along with the inability of farmers (in the US particularly) to get loans to buy this product, has resulted in big cuts to applications on farm land.
This will, inevitably, affect crop yields and already bodies such as the Food & Agricultural Organisation are warning of increased famine around the world. It was a sign of the times that earlier this month New York-listed The Mosaic Co, the world's largest producer of phosphates, reported a 38 per cent drop in sales volumes for the preceding three months.
As for local investors, they have -- after initially leaping head-first into anything related to phosphate and potash -- gone quite lukewarm on the whole idea of soft commodities (another "stronger for longer" busted flush).
The news out of Warrnambool Cheese & Butter Factory (WCB) after Friday's close won't help. Business there has "softened considerably" due to the unexpected and substantial reduction in world dairy prices over the past few weeks.
There will also be write-downs of inventory and adjustments of foreign exchange contracts to take into account the dollar depreciation.
The stock, which went above $5 on the news that WCB was going to own half of Dairy Farmers' cheese business, closed at $3.78.
BUT Andrew Drummond, who runs Minemakers (MAK), is not worried by this. The world has got to eat, and the imperatives of food production will, he argues, mean that phosphate prices will be off again within 12 months. Incidentally, the world's largest potash producer, Potash Corp of Saskatchewan, is predicting shortages in the next few years as fertiliser demand recovers.
Drummond believes he can get phosphate rock from the Wonarah project across the wharves at Darwin for around $US100/t. The company claims to have Australia's largest phosphate resource at 461 million tonnes and he is now looking to raise around $100 million to allow the first phosphate to be loaded on a train to Darwin in just over 12 months.
While most exploration sectors have gone quiet, the phosphate and potash crowd is clearly working on the same assumptions as Drummond and Potash Corp.
In Queensland, GBM Resources (GBZ) has begun drilling its Burke River phosphate deposit while NuPower Resources (NUP) has got itself very excited about the Lucy Creek project, saying its review of the former CRA's drilling records from 1993 leads it to believe this may be a world-class deposit.
Worth watching will be Transit Holdings (TRH), run by Richard Monti (an Andrew Forrest mate from the days of Anaconda Nickel), which is running the ruler over a potash project in Utah. But if political risk is more your game, there's Oklo Uranium (OKU), which has just acquired a permit in Mali that contains what appears to be a very large phosphate occurrence.
And for those with nerves of steel, there's always Russia. Red Emperor Resources (RMP) is to acquire a 70 per cent interest in a Siberian potash project. Interestingly, the announcement contains the qualification that the deal is conditional "on the vendor demonstrating that it has clear title to the project". Plucky is the only word we can think of to apply here.|
|nobull: Some broker research that shows what our share price will be (32 cents) if the phosphate project comes good. The target price mentioned for us (we are called UCL.AX in Australia) is a bit unrealistic (it perhaps assumes Standard Moroccan Rock Phosphate will be worth $350 a tonne for ever more. A bit unlikely.
If it is the phosphate project you like, then you should look also at BON.AX (I've already bought a few of those). Then there is SKR (Sunkar Resources) which seems to require a lot of capital. Also the popular one is MAK.AX (Minemakers) but I don't rate that much. It needs port facilities at Darwin, and also it is miles from Darwin (transport costs will be high: road transport to Tennent Creek and then rail to Darwin: ugh, and then there may be permitting issues). The best with lowest opex and capex are UCL (and if you wish to avoid the liquidity risk and anything to do with Iran) then BON.AX maybe the one (it has a profitable cash flow stream from diamond mining to support its company making phosphate project).|
|nobull: Encarter, I have lived and worked in Iran (during the most violent part of its modern history), so I don't have the normal reservations that most people have. The headlines in the press about Iran are dire (and all of them are true of course, including all the stuff about building an atom bomb, at least as far as I am concerned). The directors are not just a bunch of Ozzie con artists (descendents of transportees and all that). No. Far from it. I am very impressed with them. Dr Reid is a Geochemist who has worked in Saudi Arabia (advising the Saudi Govt. on the privatisation of Ma'aden: a very large company). Then there is Norman Lamont, a honourable sort of fellow IMO, who wouldn't associate himself with some spiv outfit [Recall he is former UK chancellor of the Exchequer]. Also Lundin mining own a great deal of the company, and what they don't know about zinc can't be worth knowing. This is really quite an exceptionl company with mega liquidity (risk of running out of cash) and dilution risk already in the price (if the rights issue fails the company could go belly up, and the rights issue closes in a matter of days and the rights price is far above the market price, so it all looks massively dangerous. But I've put my order on for 2m overnight (strictly limited of course). There can't be many £1m companies with the prospect of becoming $1.2bn companies, but this is one. How will they raise the finance with sanctions on Iran? Good question. I don't know the answer to that, but the Presidential elections are due in June 09 and it is possible the current mayor of Teheran, Mr Qalibaf, will be elected and that Obama will reach some sort of deal with a new regime in Teheran. Also there are plenty of countries who wouldn't take any notice of UN sanctions on Iran: Russia, South Korea - they just want to do business and make money. Mehdiabad is the largest undeveloped zinc mine in the world, and we aren't going to go looking for zinc on the moon because the Iranians are too difficult to deal with, are we? A compromise will have to be reached. The reasons given for the cancellation of all the agreements were a load of codswallop. Just a dispute about how to share the profits. Canny hagglers the Iranians. Try buying a carpet off them: you get Persian carpets cheaper in John Lewis. Mehdiabad will be built.
Finally the company has a very attractive phosphate project. Phosphates are a non-renewable resource, like oil. Unlike oil,they are essential for life: Tricarboxylic acid cycle: ADP and ATP and all that biochemistry rubbish? Plants take them out of the soil, and we eat the plants but it is not convenient for all office workers to deposit their "phosphates" back on the soil where they are needed (it's against modern office etiquette?- except in Australia, and they can't produce enough phosphates to cover their land), so there is a deficit and subsequent plant yields drop off unless phosphates are put back into the soil (fertiliser). Sucking the phosphates up off the seabed (phosphatic sediment) is cheap and easy (no crushing as with land based rock phosphate mines). Anyway in short these are a mulibagger in the long run, and it's very nice to be the only nutter in the UK who has bought shares in this company. I have great faith in it. DYOR. I hope my holding is more than 3m tomorrow. Good luck. Seriously though I would advise having an interest in all things Iranian, otherwise the offputting news headlines about Iran will make you a weak holder, and then the volatile share price and the long down trend will get to you, or yes they might be insolvent next week. All the best.|
|nobull: News expected shortly is likely to be one of the following:
1. An announcement we are going to start arbitral proceedings (which might take 4 years to complete) against the Iranian Govt. (or against IMIDRO?)
2. We are accepting an offer to quit Iran that values us at a multiple many times that of the current mkt. cap.
3. We have reached an agreement to proceed with the development of Mehdiabad. (For anyone following the story of how strongly companies are discouraged from investing in Iran due to its unwillingness to cease enriching uranium, I presume capital is available via possible Chinese and Russian partners, who of course relish doing business in an Iran largely free of competition from Western companies?).
4. We are going bust.
Option no. 4 hopefully won't happen, although we are totally dependent for support from shareholders to keep the company alive. Hopefully Norman Lamont wouldn't have joined the Board if that was the case.
Dr. Liam Fox has recently commented "We want to see a more prosperous and free Iran take its rightful place as an important regional and global player. It is a self-serving elite who are condemning Iran to economic failure, inflation and international isolation. The people of Iran deserve so much better but it is they who must be the final arbiters of their own destiny."
And of course two thirds of the population is under the age of 30, and the Telegraph has commented that the country is ruled by apathy. So a lot of patience will be needed with this stock?
This must be the only company in the world whose share price has gone down inversely in proportion to the size of mineral discovery made!|
|nobull: Union Resources Dividends
No dividends found
Trades for 15-Oct-2007
Time Volume / Share Price
10:07 300,000 @ 0.75p !|
|nobull: I expect in the next week or so a negative result to the talks to re-start the project. We will now have a 2 year arbitration battle, half way through which we can expect dilution and liquidity worries to plague the share price again, and we could be down to a 1 cent share price (Currently 1.9 Aus cents) in 1 year's time? In the event of having to drop the project we are probably owed the Aus$15m we have spent on it (it is protected under Iranian Foreign Investment Law and has been approved by the Ministry of Finance) but Iranian debts are no currency to discharge office overheads, even in Dubai. It is a terrible shame, especially for the workers formerly employed at the now idle smelter (built by the Chinese and only operated for two years) in Yazd province. Bank Melli's shares in the smelter must be almost worthless? Meanwhile, the world's largest undeveloped zinc mine must remain undeveloped, unemployment must stay high, Iran's economy must stay lopsided in terms of high dependency on oil and in terms of level controlled by Govt. (70% command economy?). The problem seems to be we are not from Venezuela, North Korea or Belarus, the price of zinc is too high (they don't want to transfer the exploitation licence) and they only want to pay equity finance suppliers debt-like finance returns (through buy-back agreements or through insisting on selling us our own ore at market prices rather than at extraction cost prices) and they feel we are responsible for their smelter going bust.|
|nobull: From the July 2006 update document
"Base on the key assumptions the NPV at 8% discount pre tax and financing is
US$1,477 million. The IRR is 15% which is considered to be favourable for such a large project. The next step is to determine if the project is financeable."
It is not financeable. In the event there is a change of regime (and a change in attitude to the demand to stop nuclear enrichment, the fully diluted NPV per share (pre financing costs and pre tax) at an 8% discount rate using a long term zinc price of $1700 per tonne is 1,477,000,000/1,377,642,778= US$1.072.
At the current share price of 2.6 Aus cents it is intuitively obvious this is easily a 20 bagger (taxes are low in Iran, but of course the financing costs are going to be substantial, so although it should be a 30 bagger there perhaps isn't any hope of that). The only other problem with the NPV figure of $1.477 bn is what %age of ownership was assumed?|
Union share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange