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Real-Time news about Ultraframe (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|edmondj: It means it isn't as bad as they previously thought!
Explains the share price recovery from the trough but 'who wants to own shares in a declining business?' is the issue. Raises the possibility of UTF being acquired or split up though.|
|monty burns: From the financials and available information, rambled on at length about further up the thread, UTF is far from a certain dead duck.
But with the uncertainty of future sales - the UK looks particularly bad judging from their comments on the first 2 months' trading, plus the 'strategic review' (flog the US business for sod-all), it's not a gamble I'll be taking.
But I honestly think there could be an opportunity here - trouble is the share price suggests otherwise and that I'm missing something.|
|jonwig: Investors Chronicle today:
If Ultraframe were a dot-com outfit, the 93 per cent drop in its share price over the past five years would pass by almost unnoticed. But it's not. It's a leading specialist in conservatory systems, and the past year has seen a catalogue of profits warnings, litigation and plummeting sales - the latter have come under pressure from lower-priced competition.
UK turnover in the past two months is down 22 per cent from last year. And, although the US operations posted operating profits of $4.8m against a comparable operating loss of $900,000 - boosted by cost savings of $3m - Ultraframe cautions that progress will be restrained. So the board has enlisted the help of investment bank Rothschild to explore its strategic options, which could result in the disposal of divisions or assets. Exceptional items included £6m on legal costs and court awards as Ultraframe fought and lost a case against Burden over intellectual property rights. The company is now appealing against the decision. Ultraframe did, however, win a case against Eurocell, and damages will be awarded in February.
Shore Capital expects pre-tax profits for 2006 of £3m and EPS of 2.2p.
Last IC view: Sell, 46p, 2 Sep 2005
The US side offers some hope, as does the end of litigation and the strategic review. However, the UK business remains a big worry and the shares, so have fallen heavily since our sell tip (46p, 2 July 2005) are still high enough.|
|dsamson: slightly odd, not sure why a falling knofe is something which goes up 20% and keeps going.... please explain when you have 235,800 on the buy volume, and 41,250 on the sell vol, with a depth of 19 to 9 how the price action is possibly indicating a fall?
Yes it has performed v badly as a company but there is definitely a share price appreciation arguement - look at the volumes and sizes. At these levels the valuation is well underpinned by the UK operation (admit US is a shambles), but I am a strong buyer|
|mattylt: One possible bullish thought....I just tried to speak with them and foudn out that their directors are in the city until Tuesday next week. I am cant believe they will not hear a clear message from the city. They would have to be particularly stubborn not to act on it. In short, a bullish possibility is that they change strategy and move to a more cost focused agenda. Having said that, probably only stop further share price erosion. The market will only value this business again rationally once the management have reestablished their credibility. Earnings of £10m would be plausible in this scenario leading to a share price of 80-120p. Still not a lot of upside from today though|
|fusebox: Lost your nerve dippie! You are likely right to take your profit now. The share price is weakening getting nearer the results...bad news and the share price will take a hit.|
|jelfsie: How on earth can an institution "dump" heeps of shares when the share price remains stable / goes up Fusebox?. You really are a pratt. The "fundamentals" you so elloquently refer to like a broken record are one of the reasons for the collapse in the share price to currently levels. Unlike you, the stock market looks 6 / 12 months ahead and in this respect the consensus is for UK interest rates to have reached their current cycle peak. Interestingly enough one of the issues you havent raised which is more pertinent IMHO is the failure to break the 100 EMA downtrend on this current move. Short term we are indeed looking at a possible pull back so your "prediction" by sheer luck may now prove correct.
L & S, you are right and I have no idea. Interesting.?!!! Im still long in small at 71p, having taken profits on 50% of my pozzie at 81p - unfortunately on hols when we spiked above 90p.|
|long and short: Fusebox
Reference your post number 77 I suggest you complete some actual RESEARCH because in a short post, you have made two factually inacruate statements, namely:
"You cannot disregard whats happening in the market in general as that is the reason for the profit warnings the last year. That being part of the problem and the market getting worse for its products, suggests to me further concerm for the company."
The above is incorrect. Not all company's are suffering - the problem is that UTF has lost market share. Indeed, the market they operate in is flat NOT going down. For example, one major window manufactuer has just opened a new £9.5m factory in the north.
Second, it does not follow that their market place will get worse from here. There is a lot of evidence which suggest that people are and will continue to add space to their property by adding a conservatory rather than moving up - the cost may be equal or less than the stamp duty involved in moving.
So, I think that unlike the competition that has pinched market share from UTF, all UTF has to worry about is how they are going to get their market share back with new products and pricing. Therefore, I conclude that for the next two years or so, the size of the overall market for conservatory roofs is irrelevant to UTF. Only, having re-established a decent market share need they start to worry about which direction the market is going in.
Clearly you are not a person to do ANY detailed research or change your mind, so I suppose you will stick to your broad sweeping statements and I shall have to learn to live with that. However, one small bit of research you might like to do is to try and estimate the value of the US business alone and what a sale of that will mean to UTF. What percentage of UTF's current market capitalisation does the US represent?
In summary, my belief is UTF is a punt on THEIR recovery and if that does not occur, I have the "back stop" of assets and strong cash flow to suggest they will get a bid from one of their competitors. Failing all else there is the dividend yeild, which I think you will find can be maintained at a very decent level for an indefinate period.
A few final smaller issues:
When have management talked up the share price?
Why are you constantly concentrating on the short term share price? Does it really matter if the share price goes up or down a few pence? Surely, your focus should be on the bigger picture and a time frame longer than the seconds you spend responding to posts? Is it really so important for you to be correct and for the rest of us to be wrong? What do you acheive if that transpires to be the case?
Havn't you got something more interesting in your life then spending so much time posting negative comments on a company you don't even know and do not have any interest in?|
|fusebox: According to Killik...they indicated the institutions had been exiting the company !
As for refering me to the RNS well anybody can do that...and that aint gona tell me very much.
I would normally contact the co....however they have badly let the market down moreover i doubt if the management can be trusted other than talkng the share price up. In my opinion sustaining the divi as it is an attempt to shore up the share price. That shows bad management bear in mind it will drain cash when they need it most.
In that respect...i think i know enough of the co's markets to confirm my view that things will get far tougher from here.
This co is now at high risk in my opionion and as i said before i see far more
downside than upside.
Very high divis in smaller companies usualy spell dissaster.|
|fusebox: This could well go lower.
Management indicate they will still pay the same divi as last year. Very well...however beware...the markets Utraframe are in are set for a further slowdown. In the UK in particular consumer borrowing is far to high...interest rates may go up further the Bank of England warn. We have a slowdown in house prices and a correction looks on the cards.
The US economy is neither that great...oil prices soaring does not help matters and you have a court case appeal.
It difficult to assess whether the board of Ultraframe are confident of trade picking up and therefore holding the divi or holding the divi to hold the share price up.
Quite honestly I do not think Ultraframes markets are looking that rosy looking forward and the holding of the dividend looks to me like an attempt to hold the share price up.
That spells danger...very high yielding shares have a habit of turning nasty. Moreover should trade deteriorate running up to the results the board of Ultraframe can change there mind over the dividend.|
Ultraframe share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange