Ukrproduct Share Discussion Threads

[worc0670] 03/1/2006 13:30

Sold out in these too. Just didn't seem to get any momentum at any point even when good news was flowing. So when bad news came, which I think was brushed off a little too easily in the RNS, I got out. Will still keep an eye out on these as I want to know what effect the Russian gas issue will have.

[one for the money] 03/1/2006 09:56

Jonwig

Yes. I have sold too as this could be a significant setback. It certainly helped BG this morning!. I guess people will be stocking up on firewood or oil instead of buying cheese, and alongside the trading statement its was enough to make me sell.

I wasn't expecting much more than 80p out of these so no great problem. I may still buy back in if the dispute settles rapidly or if they get cheap.

Although I don't know if the company relies on gas I suspect market sentiment as well as sales will be affected if the dispute is drawn out.

Cheers & HNY
John

[jonwig] 03/1/2006 08:10

Have sold my small holding in these this morning.
The trading statement in December didn't spook me, but this dispute over gas price and supply has done.

DYOR, and best of luck: I may well be back in at some stage.

[one for the money] 30/12/2005 12:18

Signing off for the new year. Have a good one, everybody.

Cheers
John

[jonwig] 30/12/2005 08:45

I've been aware for some of the rumblings about Russian gas supplies and prices to the Ukraine, and these seem to be coming to a head.

However, I've read it largely as political posturing rather than a clear and present danger.

For anyone wanting to brush up, google ukraine +gas is up-to-the minute-ish.

[jonwig] 22/12/2005 10:54

John -
Happy Christmas to you, too.
And a very prosperous New Year we both hope!
John

[one for the money] 22/12/2005 10:13

I can be also be a Corporal Jones if pressed enough! :)

Happy Christmas
John

[jonwig] 21/12/2005 13:48

Encouraging recovery last two days, including a large buy (>70k shs) at 60p today.
So the Capn Mainwarings were right ... so far.

[jonwig] 19/12/2005 12:19

Roughjustice -

If you look at post #25, you'll see I came to the opposite conclusion re H1 vs H2, though comparability wasn't easy.

It's possible that WHI will be revising their forecasts.
Before the one posted in #53, dated 10/10, they had projections of 4.84p for 2005 (see post #27).
And they are talking about just the last six weeks of the financial year, so 4.8-5.0p looks reasonable, with the downside risk into 2006 unless margin erosion can be reversed.

[roughjustice] 19/12/2005 11:59

Have been working on some forecasts based on previous information.

The second half of the year is weaker for UKRProduct according to information I have got (which would explain why the dividend would not be any higher).

Thus presuming that the company improved their second half performance from last year but did not considerably better it, then I have year end EPS at 4.4p This is approximately a 15% drop from broker forecasts and is reflected in the shares.

The worrying concern is on cashflow which was predicted to be negative this year, and my estimates presume that £500,000 extra has been lost in cashflow.
The company are forecast to turn this around next year with lower capex according to WH Ireland.

More guidance from the broker or company would be good, but I don't fancy calling the Ukraine.

[roughjustice] 19/12/2005 10:53

Im holding, just because technically the company is still delivering profit growth and that is key.

However, this is the most concerning stock in my portfolio at the moment and is costing me money as I watch it drop lower.

[jonwig] 19/12/2005 10:21

Roughjustice,

Interestingly, the last update ("Analyst Update") on 7 Nov said:


The trading environment during the third quarter and for the first month of the
fourth quarter of the current year has remained buoyant. Sales across all
sectors are up significantly with margins being sustained.

The recent Trading Statement said:

Over the last month, however, margins have been impacted by high raw material
prices and lower prices for skimmed milk powder in the export market. Whilst UPG continues to believe the company will deliver strong profit growth in the current year, this growth will not be as pronounced as previously expected as a result of this impact on margins.

- so that will impact the last six weeks or so of their year, which ends on Dec 31. It may be that eps will come out below the broker consensus which I posted earlier - don't know.
The disturbing bit (apart from the superb timing) is the bit which I underlined. Though it's difficult to see how they could say anything else!

However, it could be argued that they stuck their neck out when they said, earlier, "margins being sustained", and they are retracting an over-positive statement.

[roughjustice] 19/12/2005 09:31

Except if your entry point was a little higher. Not too worried about the loss, its releasing the information at 4:25, the minimal amount of guidance and just my general feeling on this stock.

Thus I am trying to assess its value, I understand the panic selling but I also like to have a rough idea whats happening. I also know that I haven't seen a trade today bigger than my holding.

[one for the money] 19/12/2005 09:19

All IMHO.....Surely they will be paying nearly .5 divis next year anyway - even with the potential drop in profits - nowhere near a loss (?).

Doesn't that make this price cheap? IMHO some panic selling... and it will recover, though probably not today as there is no volume. Spread still wide.

Cheers
john

[roughjustice] 19/12/2005 09:05

Some new forecasts would be good.

Earnings per share in the first half were 2.8p, and the second half promises strong growth. Not quite sure of the value of the shares at the moment. Not a position I like to be in.

[jonwig] 19/12/2005 08:17

Being savagesd on -again- just one trade, though a relatively large one, below the bid at the time.
Whilst there's no doubt Friday's statement was a profit warning, the price was already cheap, and I'd rather look for opportunities to add than bale out.

[worc0670] 16/12/2005 19:51

Well we have yet to see that they can, without hurting sales. The new middle class consumers might not take kindly to it......

[grantmac] 16/12/2005 19:32

Thanks for that Jonwig. Already got a few. Will see where it gets to before adding. Marked down on 1 trade of only 765.

Looks like they are being cautious. Difficult to see how much impact a limited deterioration in margin can have over the last 2 months of the year. As you said great that they are in a position to pass the increases on.

[grantmac] 16/12/2005 16:38

Jonwig. Have you got any idea what the forecasts are for this year? I have been working on 5.17p/share as per digital outlook, but this is only 8% up on previous year. Statement implies more growth than that. ANy help would be appreciated.

[jonwig] 16/12/2005 16:33

MMs weren't caught napping here!

Ukrproduct Group Ltd ('UPG' or 'the Group'), is today providing the following
update on trading.

The consumer outlook in the Ukraine remains positive, with UPG maintaining its
market leading shares in its two core segments, processed cheese and packaged
butter. Turnover growth remains in line with expectations.

Over the last month, however, margins have been impacted by high raw material
prices and lower prices for skimmed milk powder in the export market. Whilst UPG
continues to believe the company will deliver strong profit growth in the
current year, this growth will not be as pronounced as previously expected as a
result of this impact on margins.

UPG is addressing this impact through the introduction of new high margin
products and the renegotiation of raw milk prices. The Group is also gradually
implementing increased pricing across its product range.



Spread wide at close, 57-62. Just one trade, a small buy at the closing bell.

[leadersoroffice] 14/11/2005 20:13

sorry guys i am a utter fool

[jonwig] 07/11/2005 17:12

RNS this afternoon, what they are going to tell analysts.
Nice to know they don't give them preferential treatment...

The trading environment during the third quarter and for the first month of the fourth quarter of the current year has remained buoyant. Sales across all sectors are up significantly with margins being sustained. The proceeds raised from the Group's successful admission to AIM have improved the Group's
flexibility and its ability to negotiate improved borrowing facilities.
Investment in the development of new products and the upgrading of production
facilities remains on schedule for the full year 2005.

[simon gordon] 04/11/2005 16:36

I agree total focus on one at a time is the avenue to great wealth.