Uk Commercial Property R... Share Discussion Threads

[garycook] 24/6/2014 05:39

Sold UKCM out of both my Portfolio,s and put the proceeds into FCRE and SLI for 6 % Dividends

[christh] 31/5/2014 08:28

next dividend 10 September 2014

[skyship] 07/5/2014 08:21

XD 0.92p today. Paydate 30th May...

[skyship] 29/4/2014 17:37

Surprised that these held up as well as they did.

At 81.15p they yield 4.54% on an 8.6% premium to the Mar 31st NAV.

With no good reason to buy, they are likely to drift back into the 70s...

[jonwig] 29/4/2014 09:07

They were held back by high street and shopping centres. The low gearing is a good reason to continue holding for the present.

[dr biotech] 29/4/2014 08:41

The dividend drop was flagged well in advance, so thats not a surprise. I was a bit disappointed at the increase in NAV - it was below what SLI announced recently.

I have these as a long term investment - they are not exciting but a solid income play.

[redsonning] 04/2/2014 12:10

Thanks Eezy! You are entirely right of course. In the end fundamentals are what matters. My analysis above was aimed at demonstrating the strong position of UKCM (which the fundamentals support). I shall attempt to avoid straying into the path of idiotic humanity!..........post script.....Mr Market appears to be pushing the shares back up.......and up again.....

[eezymunny] 04/2/2014 11:39

Hmmm only Mr Market will decide where the share price goes, red. I have no idea.

I only hold UKCM because I'd sooner own it than cash....valuation looks about right here to me.

I think looking at NAVs is dangerous with cp. It's just the opinion of some idiotic human who judges NAV by current market. I much prefer looking at cash flow FWIW.

[redsonning] 04/2/2014 11:19

Correct Eezy. The NAV numbers are very good indeed. UKCM has simply been later than others in reviewing the dividend, primarily because it has had such a hugely strong balance sheet. In my opinion this has noticeably been holding back the share price, compared with those such as FCRE, SREI and PCTN who have all reviewed dividends downwards, following which their shares have risen as a result of the better financial balance.
UKCM is now of course even stronger than it was before the dividend reduction and the reduction in management fee which they have negotiated.
The rise in NAV, together with today's weakness in the share price leaves UKCM with a very small premium to net assets compared with it's peers. Despite Skyship's love of buying 100p for less than 90p (which I love too by the way!) I suspect the underlying financial strength of UKCM will continue to support the shares.

[eezymunny] 04/2/2014 08:58

Yes jonwig

IRP/IPT was the same b4 they merged into FCRE.

Anyone holding yesterday and selling today just because of an almost inevitable and long overdue (IMO) divi cut is simply bonkers. It's the same buildings, same tenants etc!

[jonwig] 04/2/2014 08:47

The so-called 'dividend' was always a 30p payment of your capital for every 70p earned in net rents, roughly.
The Schroders IT did the same last year, with no great comeback.

With UKCM, low gearing is a positive, over-weighting of retail a mixed blessing.

[aleman] 04/2/2014 08:30

Another result that suggests the UK economy is not as strong as official numbers are making out. Profit warnings spiked in Q4 at the end of a much improved year and continue higher into Q1 2014. It ties in with the capita dividend report saying that actual dividend growth slowed in Q4 and the expected growth for 2014 was revised down. This was at the same time the ONS told us the economy was accelerating. You can't trust government numbers these days, especially running up to an election.

[soi] 04/2/2014 08:18

Sold out, got 75.1, thought it would drop a fair amount.

I guess a 4.9 % yield from a solid company still good but think I`ll try find something with a higher yield.

[dr biotech] 04/2/2014 08:06

A 30% dividend cut then - I guess it makes sense from a longer term view but disappointing. I'll hold though, just as it as a bit of diversity to my holdings.

[skyship] 07/11/2013 12:06

Yes, heard that on R4 & Bloomberg - an appalling statistic for an already overcrowded island; and of course most of the gain coming from immigrants and the higher birth-rate among non-AngloSaxons.

Every time we return to the UK to visit friends and last few family we are increasingly struck by the noise, the traffic, the incessant multi-cultural humanity. All rather worrying IMO.

If you are retiring, then consider joining us in the peace and tranquility of SW France - a great lifestyle choice in so many ways.

Anyway, the most obvious conclusion is that the Government is really going to have to get heavy over its changes to the planning laws - far too important to leave to local council planning officers! House-building in the UK needs to ratchet up by 100% - toute de suite...

[rcturner2] 07/11/2013 11:04

The UK seems to be committed to a long term policy of mass immigration, which will only increase property values and yields.

The telegraph reckon another 10m over 25 years.

[dr biotech] 07/11/2013 11:01

I think that most in here are in it for the longer term yield, which hopefully is sustainable. I see it as an alternative to a company bond - there is more risk but over a 5 year period it should beat cash and be a decent bet against inflation. Commercial property is also still way under its previous (overvalued) peak.

[skyship] 07/11/2013 10:02

Always a hostage to fortune buying propcos at a premium to underlying NAV. Sure there is a good yield, but does that justify a 10% NAV premium. Odds are that this will prove a pretty boring investment at this level.

Of course boring is not necessarily a bad thing; it is just that you can do better. My current Best Buy is LSR (I've now banked the DSC profits). Sp 31.75p; NAV 46p; EPRA NAV 56p; company in voluntary liquidation so swap liabilities won't be triggered. Ergo current NAV discount = 43%; and with this in mind take a quick look at Post No.164 on this thread...then click back to 146...

As to those valuations, interesting to listen to this Bloomberg interview as to why Schroders are/were underweight the sector:



At some stage interest rates must rise; and that will act as a drag on valuations through the Discount Rate. The debate of course is will those rates rise Q1'14....or Q1'17?

[rcturner2] 06/11/2013 15:09

Well if a unit is paying £80k rent and is valued at £1m, that is a conservative valuation. The yield off the assets implies a conservative valuation, that's all. That is just my opinion, nothing more.

[jonwig] 06/11/2013 14:44

The NAV is calculated in the normal way, as I see it ... in what way is it calculated consevatively?

Earnings for the last year were £5.3m, adding back property valuation losses. The dividend costs £6.3m pa - uncovered.

Retail is the key - how would a rise in interest rates impact the value here?

[rcturner2] 06/11/2013 08:44

I think the way that they calculate the NAV is very conservative, which is sensible.

[dr biotech] 06/11/2013 08:41

I liked the statement this morning. Decent yield, however my concern is that the price is a bit too much above the NAV, although over a 5 year period I think this will be inconsequential. I am trying to get a balanced portfolio with about 20% in property and more of these is certainly an option.

[rcturner2] 06/11/2013 07:59

Decent statement.

[aleman] 13/9/2013 14:21

hxxp://www.cbre.co.uk/uk_en/news_events/news_detail?p_id=15536&title=CBRE_UK_Monthly_Index

London, 11 September 2013 – All UK Commercial Property performance continued to improve in August, with total returns of 1.1%, increasing the number for the year to date to 5.2%, according to CBRE's latest Monthly Index. Capital values continued to grow, increasing by 0.5% over the month, resulting in a small positive capital value growth of 0.1% over the year to date.


Aleksandra Starczynska, Analyst, CBRE Research, said:

"August was a strong month for the regional office markets which showed positive capital growth. Encouragingly, this was the first sign of growth in the regions since October 2011 and confirms the stronger performance of the market outside London as the economic outlook across the UK improves."

[wskill] 25/5/2013 14:37

Dont think there is any hope for IERE they have too many empty properties and are selling the let properties but ALPH have a pretty decent 85% of portfolio let and are even managing to increase this but they have a much better class of property in their portfolio and I believe this makes them a better bet,not for widows and orphans of course.