Uk Commercial Property R... Share Discussion Threads

[isa23] 29/1/2009 16:21

fcpt is becoming cheap relative to ukcm. discount 34%, gearing 5%, yields 10.6% paid monthly

[pip_uk] 28/1/2009 10:09

Been watching this closely, and the share price has held up remarkably well.
After selling for a small profit decided to buy back in today.
Any uplift in the property sentiment would be very positive for this company.
With my holding of IPI bought at 30p a share I can scarcely do any worse.

[skyship] 19/1/2009 16:24

Back in sooner than I thought likely (53.9p average).....& will buy further should they challenge the recent lows.

[skyship] 19/1/2009 11:51

Better than feared. A well-managed company & one I wish to be back into asap.

[bolador] 19/1/2009 11:14

NAV announced today 71.2 for end December 2008.

[bolador] 19/1/2009 09:43

Skyship

Thanks for that reply.

To give the directors their due they have done a very good job of keeping the co in a strong position in fearful markets, the latest portfolio update was encouraging on quality. So far as my amateur eye could tell.
The test will be as how and when they spend their cash.

[skyship] 19/1/2009 09:22

Bolador - I agree with yr figures. I'm assuming worse case NAV 68p; and basing yield calcs on a 5.0p divi rather than a 5.25p divi. I bt a few again down @ 53.5p & sold those on Friday @ 56.5p. IMO the current price is in no-man's land; but I will be back in should they sell-off again.

[bolador] 19/1/2009 08:57

Last nav end Sept 08 was 81p. Assume 68p now. Yield at 56p 12% on old div say 9% now for 2009 allowing for some lease cancellation, rent default etc.
UKCM has £64m cash at last count versus mkt cap of £475 and a line of credit from Lloyds confirmed at £80m if required. Little risk then of individual catastrophe for this co thus it is probably one of the most attractive property bets available to the private investor especially bearing in mind that as a result of its reit status the board must pay out the vast majority of rental income. This prevents them having any grand ideas. One for the pension pot.

ps The Dukes of Westminster did not get to own large chunks of big cities by worrying about the odd depression, world wars and general mayhem.

[skyship] 18/12/2008 07:51

Pillion - Sorry, but I have to disagree with yr 54 above.

You are right to a degree in that the listing of UKCM coincided with the start of a remorseless decline in the valuations for commercial property; however the idea that shares are for buying and placing on a dusty shelf hasn't been the right strategy for quite sometime.

Shares are for buying & selling; and with that in mind the swings have provided ample opportunities for profit whilst being protected by the underlying value of an asset-backed investment.

Personally I'm out again now - but I am looking to buy back in should they retrace to the 49p-54p range again.

[pillion] 17/12/2008 23:26

free stock charts from www.advfn.com


Chops I agree with you

UKCM has never been a good share to buy, just look at the above weekly chart

[chopshs] 12/12/2008 20:42

IPD monthly index shows capital growth of -5.7% for Nov following on from the -5.1% recorded for October. Now looks as if the falls for the whole of Q4 will be at least 15%.
Impact on NAV's and LTV covenants is going to be horrible in some instances. UKCM insulated but with more market gloom to come in 2009, I would respectively suggest they are not a short term hold at 57p.

[chopshs] 12/12/2008 10:58

Best to compare IRET with IFD and TAP imo.
Compare IERE with MERE, KEIF, RTY and APT.
Worth reading today's trading update from INRE and the latest fund valuations from CAL.

[skyship] 12/12/2008 10:11

Thnx Ptolemy - yes, taken a nice turn, however lost it all on the fallback (again!) in IERE. But buying more there as they are down for the same reason UKCM fell - hedge fund selling regardless of price, regardless of value.

Finbarr - Tiltonboy is the expert on IRET, so hopefully he may post his updated thoughts. I believe they are still cheap; though maybe not now as cheap as IERE. Two weeks ago IFD, IERE, IRET were all standing @ 21p. Worth looking at the three for simple comparitive purposes...

[finbarr] 12/12/2008 08:47

Skyship,

Sorry for coming late to the party but what's your view on iret currently?

[ptolemy] 11/12/2008 16:33

Skyship
Well done!

[skyship] 05/12/2008 16:22

Ptolemy - incidentally, looks as though yr concerns about CED2 may have been right - dropped out of bed this afternoon......Has one of the counterparty's gone belly-up do you know?

[skyship] 05/12/2008 16:03

Ptolemy - it is the way the funds trade SETs stocks. Take a look at the trades in BLND, then click over to any other TOP 250 megacap. I only have L1; but if you have L2 you will see it all far better. As I said before - our PI trades are marked as "O"-trades.

[ptolemy] 05/12/2008 14:47

Skyship,
I don't buy this idea that most of the trades are institutional.

60 trades so far today and 60,000 shares traded = ave size of 500gbp.

Can you help out further?

[stupidboypike] 05/12/2008 12:17

chopshs, many thanks, best regards SBP

[chopshs] 05/12/2008 12:10

No it's not SBP. It's an off shore (Guernsey) based company as are all the similar PIT's. These vehicles are reasonably tax efficient but I'm not an expert. I'm not sure that there are any material advantages to being a REIT as opposed to Guernsey based (or vice versa) but perhaps someone would like to comment? There's no stamp duty to pay on acquisition of shares in these PIT's which is a bonus...

[stupidboypike] 05/12/2008 11:26

Simple question and apologies for not researching myself but could someone tell me if UKCM is a Reit? (Have it on my watch list)

Best regards

SBP

[skyship] 05/12/2008 09:28

Interesting interview on Bloomberg this morning with Patrick Sumner - Head of Property Equity Investent with Henderson Global Investors. He runs three funds which on average are invested c.43% USA, c.43% Asia (inc Japan) & only 7% Europe. Nevertheless, when asked which would be his preferred Market at the moment.....Answer:-----The UK!

Why. Because the UK has the most reactive stockmarket and the property sector has been in constant decline for almost 2yrs. At current levels it already over-discounts practically all the bad news - excepting perhaps a prolonged deflation. Even so the principal REITS are on 7%-10% yields and are not really threatening LTV breaches. He believes prices are too low as they have been professionally shorted as a compensating play to the CMSB market in the States. Not exactly sure what that is all about (Commercial Mortgage market perhaps); but the inference is that the shorts will be squeezed if the Fed underwrites that Market - as it may well do.

[ptolemy] 05/12/2008 09:19

Thanks for link. Somethings there I didn't know.

Big institutional buying today, I see (trades 3 to 16 this am). Only joking! Reinvested divis, I guess.

Chopshs,
I don't think its being cynical to think they might invest in property to increase their fees, it's their mandate to build shareholder value and that means growing the business!

[skyship] 04/12/2008 14:28

Ptolemy - they are all institutional trades - almost without exception. UKCM is a TOP250 "SETS" stock, so the trades are mainly computer generated and indicated by the letters "AT". Also most trades are booked on the Iceberg basis, ie the computer inputs any number of random small trades all totalling the Fund Manager's requirement to BUY/SELL, say, 100k or they are randomly generated as part of a tracker fund portfolio. The PI trades are almost invariably indicated with the letter "O" – though I do see my BUY trade No.41 yesterday was indicated "OK" for some – perhaps ADVFN thought it a good buy!!

Anyway, this link explains the nomenclature: