Uil Share Discussion Threads

[davebowler] 03/8/2016 09:42

UEMS thread for chart/price

[vacendak] 03/8/2016 08:41

Rambutan

Thanks. Well, this was for Mozy's homework, but useful to bookmark nonetheless.

[rambutan2] 03/8/2016 00:27

Alternatively, post June 07


Whilst pre June 07

[rambutan2] 03/8/2016 00:08

vacendak, this link offers all Utilico rns (including Emerging as can't separate) from Nov 2015 all the way back to Aug 2003 when it launched. Post 11/15 Utilico was renamed UIL Limited, so UTL stops appearing using the search criteria.

[vacendak] 02/8/2016 16:42

Mozy

For that you need to ferret out how many shares they had in Utilico when the "one free sub for five ordinaries on the register" happened. I do not remember ever reading about UIL actually buying any subscription share (UEMS) so they must have had them for free. No way they would have sold any of their UEMS either, UIL plays the option/warrant game all the time (hint: Resolute, Zeta, etc.).

I do not know if we can access a full archive of the RNS linked to UTL, these would definitely mention the exercise of any UEMS.

UIL has its archive from 2011, the Annual Reports mention at least a percentage of ownership of their holdings. Can't remember exactly when UEM created the UEMS though. I know the UEMS will lapse after end of February 2018.

[mozy123] 02/8/2016 16:13

cheers vacendak - its for my model - just needed the cost of debt to the investment company - not going to buy the zdp's!

Resolute has jumped after last nav yes! Also Zeta owns a fair chunk of Resolute as well!

Anyone know how many UEMS the trust has - as i note these are now in the money!

[vacendak] 02/8/2016 15:43

Mozy

From the 2015 Annual Report, page 75:

ZDP 2016, 2018 and 2020 are at an equivalent return of 7.25% per annum.
The new ZDP 2022 have a 6.25% equivalent gross redemption yield.

Note that these equivalent yields are over the life of the ZDPs. The only way to make the original stated redemption yields (7.25% or 6.25%) is to have bought them at par (or rolled them over) from inception.

You would need to check the latest fact sheet to know how much equivalent yield is left until redemption.

For instance, according to the latest fact sheet (June 2016)
There is 2.8% p.a. left on the 2016; 3.8% on the 2018, 4.1% on the 2020 and 5.5% p.a. on the 2022. As indicated in the factsheet those are based on the final value. All of these trade at a premium to their accrued capital entitlement. I guess the published remaining yields are calculated at the share price stated in the fact sheet.

[mozy123] 02/8/2016 15:22

Anyone know the accrual rates of the ZDP's off the top of thier heads?

2016 ?
2018 ?
2020 ?
2022 ?

[mozy123] 02/8/2016 13:56

hxxp://www.fool.com.au/2016/08/01/heres-why-resolute-mining-limited-shares-are-going-nuts-today/

[vacendak] 02/8/2016 10:44

Morton,

True, when I said "bond like" I should have said "bond like-like". :)
There is indeed some degree of gradual loss between
* Fire sale of Mr Saville's family silver in Hamilton, Bermuda, to pay for the ZDPs redemption.
* UIL pays its bills with freshly minted Krugerrands or Sovereigns from Resolute mining.

I may have missed something about your comment on the ZDP 2016 cover: The ZDP cover for 2016 was at 5.13X according to the latest factsheet (June 2016), the smallest being of course for the 2022s, which was still at a healthy 1.60X. This is not really a problem anyway as the money for their redemption in October is already earmarked (rollover, bank facilities, etc.). To be fair to UIL, even during the bad days for the share price, such as looking at the Annual Report for the year ending in June 2009, the ZDP cover for the longer dated ones (ZDPs 2016 at the time) was at worst 1.29X (in a passage about share buy-backs).

As for the plate spinning, they may be increasing the amount of money in play now by borrowing more at cheap/cheaper rates via ZDP issues. In the past they played around with free warrants to attract more capital. The first batch, when they restructured from Special Utility Trust to Utilico, was a nice gift, I redeemed them progressively as the share price was shooting up nicely. The second time - was it 2007? - the warrants ended-up being duds as mentioned in my earlier post. They had an exercise price around 330p+ if I remember well. Back then, it was all believable, then of course, when one looks at the share price retrospectively...

Note that Utilico Emerging Markets have currently a class of "subscription shares", which are in effect warrants (ticker UEMS); details of which appear in their annual reports.

As for the yield, yes, it is indeed very decent. In fact, I decided to sit tight with my investment because of it. Sure, I got a lot of value destroyed (the share price collapsed pretty badly since its heydays, with a nadir of 95.250 on February 11th, 2016) but there always had been a bit of cash coming every quarter. The old Special Utility Trust was advertised as "growth only" in the late '90s, we only started to get some dividends (specials then regular) in March 2011.

Considering yesterday jump of 7p, I would say that the only thing to moan about now would be the level of gearing, which this time indeed seems to be enhancing the valuation. The July factsheet should be out in less than two weeks now, and that should be even lower than the last reported value of 82.7%.

Apparently, UIL has just made it to the FTSE "600" last week at 599:
hxxp://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php

Still some ways to Royal Dutch Shell, but hey!
On a more serious note, this could increase the visibility and the level of trades, hence lower the spread in the longer term.

[pherrom] 02/8/2016 09:49

Resolute (unaudited)results:

[vacendak] 01/8/2016 13:27

Morton
Another interesting post. UIL is on fire today, +7.00p (about 5%) at time of typing.
Zeta up by 10.6% too.

I would have kept my 2022 though, people tend to like bonds (or equivalent) a lot these days and the 2022 have already gained a nice premium during their short lives. Since you mentioned the reserves for the dividend, I expect the ZDP covers (for all classes) to increase significantly by the time of the next report, which should be coming soon (AR to June 2016). This in turn might increase their demands from the risk-adverse investor.
Considering the recent share price recovery, hence the renewed strength of the company, the ZDPs could become relatively safe havens. I have been putting a few pennies towards the various ZDP classes to play the long-term rollover game, with the "safer hedge" side in mind.
Still doing 6% in less than two months on the ZDP 2022 is a very acceptable return indeed.

Also to put in the improvement column: The ZDPs (again all classes) tend to have a relatively decent spread (between 0.5 and 1.5%) making them relatively liquid.
Talking about spread, the one for UTL is also down significantly, now around 2.5%. I remember some values being closer to 5% not long ago.

Despite all the recent fireworks, we should remind ourselves that back in '07, UTL was above 300p. I remember letting my warrants lapse (those had been free anyway) a few years later.

I used to get the "predicted/estimated NAV" from the FT with regards to UTL and it was usually pretty good. I do not know how they did the forecast either. I cannot find it any longer with their new layout and somehow it is no longer possible to get back to the old layout for the company info.

[morton2011] 01/8/2016 11:08

Resolute flying this morning in Aus. Very positive update on long term future for Syama. UIL had sold 5 million shares last week at 150 $AUD in Resolute approx along with Alliance but not Zeta and others that ICM manage. UIL still holds a lot more shares (over 150 million incl ZETA and UEM in RSG) and the share price is over 190 $AUD close of today. Morningstar have a 'predicted NAV' for UIL I noticed today, not sure how they calculate it but it was at 307 which given the Resolute price sounds feasible.

I have alos been looking at the revenue streams for UIL and they are looking pretty solid, UEL, SOM, Infratil and likely to be some from Resolute and in the next couple of years likely to be more from the tech shares. There is a years worth of dividends in the reserves so the yield seems secure.

Sold out of the 2022 zdp (at over 106) and into the ordinaries as the share price c/should test 200 pence feasibly and even if the NAV does drop the dividends attractive when buying at 150 share price with a yield of 5%. This should reward the LTI

[vacendak] 29/7/2016 09:40

Zeta (ASX:ZER) is up by 30% today.

Considering where the share price had been sitting for a while and that it had not even registered a trade for a month (FT graphs) this may not look too surprising.

Still, as this has not been a "top performer", to put it mildly, in the UIL portfolio of late, this is good news.

More on the CETO-6 / project from Carnegie and another mention of UIL:
hxxp://www.4-traders.com/CARNEGIE-WAVE-ENERGY-LIMI-10356983/news/Carnegie-Wave-Energy-CWE-Quarterly-Report-Quarter-Ending-June-30th-2016-22777160/

[energiser01] 28/7/2016 16:32

Added a few more, given the widening discount. With good chance boe will cut rates next month. Dyor etc..

[vacendak] 28/7/2016 15:26

And another few ticks upwards for the NAV: GBX 274.82 (cum income)

[pherrom] 28/7/2016 09:44

Interesting article; well spotted.

Current value of UIL holding in CWE is about £3 million. Historically the share price has been 10x the current price (A$0.03), not that that is particularly relevant to the future possibilities here.

[vacendak] 27/7/2016 21:14

The REH/Carnegie story:
hxxp://greenbarrel.org/10-news/435-the-history-behind-uil-s-acquisition-of-shares-in-carnegie-wave-energy

While the share price of the company (CWE) is still apparently pretty low, the returns on that odd indirect investment by UIL could soon become quite savoury.

I would not put it past UIL to have eyed the CWE shares from the beginning when they lent some money to REH.

[vacendak] 19/7/2016 20:08

And they have just sold even more 2022 at a premium on the market:


This is already 5% profit since late June (placement of 2022) when these were issued and "bought" from UIL Finance at par.