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UIL Limited Share Discussion Threads
Showing 601 to 624 of 625 messages
|8.1% spread... pfff...
Hopefully this will close a bit around Christmas when that divi gets paid and reinvested.
Oh look! Just gone up by 3.75p. That being said, yesterday it went up by five to fall back to flat at close.|
|Spread vs divi maybe! Tho agreed nice to see it not fall. Income stock... ;)|
|Going ex-dividend today.
Surprisingly no sell-off so no complaint so far.|
|The chairman welcome to the Zeta Resources AGM (November 29th):
Nothing much: RSG up over the past year and some good news about nickel, which should allow them to reopen some of the Panoramic mines that had been mothballed.|
|Freefalling again: -8.75p at opening this morning.
Things might improve soon though when the Italian referendum goes the way of Brexit and Trump: Fear for the end of the EU/euro should rule, gold should soar and people could be scrambling for UIL Ltd/Resolute all the way up to 190-200p again.
That being said, gold had a good day yesterday but RSG managed to lose 1.2% overnight.
We are going ex-dividend in two days too, so the price could tank a bit more.|
You sound like Tim Bennett from "Killik Explains" (formerly at MoneyWeek).
I find his videos are very instructive.
I agree with your dividend comment: Apart from the fees, I see this as the other way for the big shareholders to milk UIL Ltd. Smaller fry like humble me can still benefit. So at some point it could go up indeed.
There is also a lot of lingering fear and distrust over the split-capital structure, which could explain the reluctance of bigger fish getting interested in UIL Ltd. I wonder if British Empire (BTEM) will one day see UIL Ltd as "value" and dump a few dozen millions in it.
With hindsight the drama of the past two weeks is very likely linked to the most recent investors who smelled gold via Resolute and misunderstood UIL Ltd for a gold miner investment. On the other side of UIL, The Trump effect has alread helped the financials, at least reassured them, so Somers should shine in the medium term. Still I am not spitting on the TouchCorp/Afterpay story though.|
|I know I posted (572) on why they should just cancel ZDP's they own. Thinking further on this for a short term investor here I don't think they should be buying back ordinary shares until the debt levels are reduced significantly. My logic is as follows - buying back shares increases the gearing and therefore does not help the short term investor unlike the advantages for an ungeared company SP?
The current situation:
Fictitious company to keep the maths simple - ICM InvTrust
£ 4 million assets
£ 2 million debt
2 million shares
NAV is £ 1 per share (£ 2 million)
100% gearing (£ 2 million debt : £ 2 million of nett assets)
At 50% discount share price is trading at 50 pence
So similar setup to UTL
Option A – ICM Inv Trust starts buying back shares
Sell £ 1 million of assets and buy back 1 million shares at 50 pence and cancel them.
£ 3 million assets
£ 2 million debt
1 million shares - NAV is still £ 1 per share
Gearing now 200% (£ 2 million debt / £ 1 million of nett assets)
Looks (rightly) scary to most investors so share price likely to actually end up lower than a 50% discount so < 50p
Option B – ICM Inv Trust starts paying down the debt
Sell £ 1 million of assets and pays off £ 1 million of debt
£ 3 million assets
£ 1 million debt
2 million shares - NAV still £ 1
Gearing now 50% (£ 1 million debt: £ 2 million of nett assets)
Now looks a lot less scary so share price narrows..
A difference is that the income is being shared among less shareholders in Option A.
Since Dec 2013 UTL shareholding has reduced from 99.1 million to 90.3 million. Dividend payments have stayed the same at 7.5 pence per share per annum. By keeping the dividend payments the same over the last 3 years its actually costing them 10% less £ to pay as fewer shares in issue. It cost £ 7.4 million in 2015 and £ 6.8 million in 2016 for that reason. So those of us still invested have not benefited from this at all as yet and in fact are suffering (short term) as the gearing is up.
The revenue reserve (for the dividends) stands at over £ 10 million as noted before so is a sort of hidden asset for Long term investors, helped a little by the reducing number of shareholders. So from my perspective as a LTI maybe it is better for share repurchase but the amplification of the gearing feels wrong so I would prefer the debt paid back.
If I have understood this then I would hope/ expect that the dividend should increase by at least 10% this year as LTI so I can get some benefit from the past purchases. It will have to happen at some point given the reserves. As the £ 25 million short term bank loan needs repaying do not expect it to happen before then. I doubt that reserve is actually sitting in a deposit account..
Overall no reason I can see to not reinvest my upcoming dividends which was why I looked into this.
btw Afterpay (AFY) is continuing to look promising - chairmans report from AGM this week worth reading.
Touchcorp perking up as well / as a result (it has a locked in shareholding in Afterpay which was 30% before recent 'heavily oversubscribed' AFY fund raising)
If Afterpay can develop their model internationally then it and TCH could do very well. On a look through basis Afterpay around 2% of gross assets assuming TCH and UTL could sell their shares etc etc.|
|More ZDP sales, or indirect debt issuance at slightly lower than the equivalent face coupon as Morton would correctly point out.
|289.85p yeaahhh... :(
At least it has stopped sinking.
We were at 331.33p in October.|
|Gold really suffered tho; not much better today.
Slight tick-up in NAV reported from yesterday, though we all know NAV's a moveable feast when holdings trade so little.
An income stock!|
|Went up nicely by more than 6p during the day but closed at -0.75p. Oh well...|
|Gold cliffing it again, but UTL up - hooray! Albeit on that 15p spread..|
|@Morton & vacendak - I don't check RSG at all, I just check you two ;)|
I have RSG on my watchlist too. :)
What I meant was that last week's excitement seemed to have been generated by the various "estimated NAV" values that showed up here and there. Some of those values indicated some terrible collapse (well below 200p). They turned up, thankfully, being very bad estimates. As soon as the RNS dropped for the official NAV, we gained/recovered 10p.
As you know, I am sort of holding for life anyway, but I am also greedy, so do not like when UTL dives like that. At least some "scalpers" must have lost a pretty penny on last week silly games.
A big buy @ 154p has just appeared.|
|@V - seem to recall the NAV is done by the registrar and not ICM. Once a week and at month end feels fine to me. Still think too much focus on the NAV short term because we have to accept a lot of the portolio is not traded that much and is off market so difficult to value. With that said have to admit to checking RSG most mornings!|
|Well spotted on the silly spread indeed: 9.7% what the...?!?
ICM should make some efforts about NAV disclosure. Once a week does not seem to be enough. Daily could be difficult though considering most of the portfolio is not really traded.
The standard NAV publication frequencies seem to be daily, weekly, quarterly (PE usually), half yearly (property). From what I hold anyway.|
15p spread probably not helping! Was relieved to see that NAV RNS from last week.|
|Quiet start of the day: If it ain't traded, it ain't sold either! :)|
|It looks like people were fretting about the NAV.
The drop seems to be less than feared, UTL up by 10p on the day.|
|Maybe Gordon Gecko bought a lot of UIL Ltd stock last month and a meddling Bud Fox is misappropriating "Blue Horseshoe" to bring him down?|
|Gearing is a little odd in that the monthly factsheet has (for years) a different % used than the Annual results which use the reasonable measure of divide the debt over the nett assets.
Annual results for the year to end of June 2016
£ 222.1 million debt
£ 218.6 million nett assets
= 102% gearing
(this % is on Page 6 of annual report)
Presumably this is the ratio they then refer to throughout the Annual report when commenting on gearing.
The monthly factsheet for the end of month of June 2016 includes the ZDP they own as a Gross Asset but exclude them from the amount owing (only know this as the maths works). What is odd is how they then report the Gearing as 82.7% which is based on the AIC definition which I cannot find or reconcile as they do not use that % anywhere in the the Annual report. As above they have been doing it this way for years. I don't think its the ZDP owned that account for the difference.
I also worked out what would happen if all the assets dropped by 25% since October factsheet:
NAV would be 170 pence
Gearing would be 160% (using Annual report way of doing it)
Not pretty but neither would it be catastrophic unless the ZDP cover multiples trigger something.
If its RSG that's spooking investors they were 18.9% of the gross assets end of September so could be totally wiped out and it would not be the end of UIL. I cannot see this happening as noted previously.
Does seem odd that the share price has dropped so far and fast. Volumes not that great in last few weeks and its never been a deep market for UIL. Perhaps wih the share price and NAV falling does not attract in any short term traders and not enough long term investors to mop up on this dip?
Like Specto feel discretion required at this point in case there is something I am missing as added quite a few shares this year.|
|Let's look at what happened for the past two ZDP rollover/redemption by unearthing the factsheets.
ZDP 2014 (redeemed October 2014)
Bank debt £0 (yep, that low)
Share price 117
Bank debt £54.7m
Share price 114
Delta sp: -2.6%
Delta NAV: -5.1%
Bank debt £52.2m
Share price 116
Delta sp: 1.7%
Delta NAV: -0.5%
ZDP 2012 (redeemed October 2012)
Bank debt £2.6m
Share price 160.5
Gearing expressed as 1.90x
Bank debt £47.9m
Share price 175.5
Delta sp: 9.3%
Delta NAV: -0.02%
Bank debt £47.9m
Share price 175.5
Delta sp: 0.0%
Delta NAV: -0.6%
The bank debt stated on the September 2016 was £13.6m and the gearing 65.6%
So, slightly less prepared to redeem the ZDP 2016 than in 2014, but the gearing was nothing like it was back at the time of the 2012 and 2014 redemption dates. Note that the bank debt shot up in both earlier redemption cases, so again nothing new.
Something else than the debt must be scaring people holding UIL Ltd.
We are losing more than 50% a month on the share price right now.|
|FWIW just checked price with dummy sells, 2 hours ago could not get an online quote to sell even NMS 1500, now can get offer to sell 30,000 @135p online. At or near the bottom?
Also tried dummy buy, cannot buy even 1000 online. (edited)|
|NAV estimate is off a cliff (presumably gearing effect of zeros) so it's just maintaining discount I guess? HL reckons discount lower here than at £1.80.|