Udg Healthcare Public Share Discussion Threads

[culchi] 07/5/2008 23:02

sorry liars i spent month of april touring cities of southern spain with my missus, got back to a work overload .Had a glance at results in a relaxed way and saw the usual reliable performance. As i said on ang. thread , this is now my second highest stock holding in value terms. Have held since 2001 and use scribs to add to my holding. As you say a most underrated management ,now adding value by acquiring higher margin add on businesses. i now feel i will be trading less in forthcoming years, as i think i have a balanced high quality portfolio. Like most people i have learned from my mistakes, also learned a lot from posters like yourself ,jt cod etc. Bought een and dgo (thanks mainly to jt postings) with proceeds of bur. takeover, while quality companies like sfr. and sgi were highlighted in various posts and i was lucky to buy them on dips. The only stock i got doubtful about was taih. but jts reasoned posts have kept me faithful although still at a loss. Biggest loss has been with sterling slump but hopefully this will correct itself .Thanks for all your work on this and other threads, always appreciated even if we dont post often.

[liarspoker] 07/5/2008 22:22

I like blabbing on to myself. :O)

I just find it strange how everyone seems to be chasing the latest trendy share when this is growing at about 15% per year. At this rate the share price doubles every 5 years, more if you take the scrip divi.

Have you missed the boat as regards getting them cheap - I can't answer that djderry, only you can. ;o)

As I see it from an EPS perspective: Historically EPS growth has been about 15% per annum therefore a multiple of 15 would be suitable. It looks like UDG will do 25 cents this year therefore an approximate price would be 375 cents ( about where we are now ).

From an intrinsic value point of view: You can take the 375 cent figure to start with and add a little for credible management, a market leading position in Ireland, the move into diversification of higher margin sectors, brand names etc etc. You might get 400c as fair value, you might get 440c for fair value. It depends on the individual. You can also deduct a little due to regulation etc.

Anyhow that's enough rambling for me but a final thought might be to wait and hope a summer dip will occur ( like in the last few years ) and add then on a 10% discount from the 375c figure to get a little margin of safety so add at say sub 340c if you get the chance.

[djderry] 07/5/2008 20:38

Liarspoker,you must be commended for keeping this thread going! I have a very small few of these.Have I missed the boat as regards getting them cheap?

[liarspoker] 06/5/2008 18:21

Looks like a new high - strange how a thread like this gets no posts from anyone even though the share keeps making new highs and growing at around 15% per year.

Perhaps everyone has bought and have tucked them away. ;o)

[liarspoker] 06/5/2008 09:18

Sorry, my mistake. The outlook is in there and looks good. :O)

Say EPS increases by 13% over the next 5 years:

Assuming 2008 EPS ends up at 25c that gives EPS of 46c at end 2013.

This would equate a share price of around 7 Euro on a multiple of 15.

On EPS growth of 15% p/a we can expect a share price of around 7.50 at end 2013. This would be higher if we use a higher multiple of course. imo this is possible as we should be in an upward market cycle in 5 years ( touch wood ).

Historically we have seen a dip in the share price over the late summer. Perhaps it might be a good idea to buy in or add a few on the dip should one occur this year. Should be a nice bagger from 3.50 Euro......add in the scrips and it should more than double bag.

Slowly does it here. :O)

[liarspoker] 06/5/2008 07:18

Results look decent on a quick skim. I don't have time to read the results carefully till this evening. No firm forward statement though which could possibly spell trouble.

[liarspoker] 29/4/2008 08:37

Interims next Tuesday - 6th May.

[liarspoker] 13/4/2008 17:33

Article regarding UDG in the Sunday Business Post today.

Says UDG looks good for a takeover possibly from Alliance Boots although it may not come for another 2 - 5 years due to the level of debt AB took on when it went private.

I also think that some of the larger European players may be interested. Anyhow I hope that UDG don't get taken over for a long while yet. I am quite pleased with double digit growth in earnings and the divi year after year so I hope that they continue for a long time yet.

[liarspoker] 12/4/2008 23:10

Euro 4.60 target price and double digit earnings increases expected over the next 2 years:

[liarspoker] 06/4/2008 09:31

Don't worry about Forex rates when holding for the long term imo as long as the underlying business continues to perform that's all that matters. Like the company says - forex rates don't affect cashflows they only affect reporting profits:

[liarspoker] 04/4/2008 08:16

We'll get over 350p eventually JohnnyAD. I'll be holding a while yet so as long as the business continues to performs I don't mind what the share price does too much in the short term.

Another 2 acquisitions announces today:

[johnnyad] 03/4/2008 14:18

Excellent TS and positive outlook.

As you say liars, lovely share to hold, but would be even lovelier if and when we get through 350p.

Markets are depressed at present, but quality should show through eventually.

[liarspoker] 03/4/2008 07:25

Double digit growth once again despite currency fluctuations. :O)

Acquisitions performing ahead of expectations ( Pyramed was paid full earn outs early ) and all divisions performing strongly generating lots of cashflow.

What a lovely, lovely share to be in especially with Irelands aging population.

[liarspoker] 19/3/2008 12:30

T/S: April 3

Results: May 6

[liarspoker] 12/3/2008 17:01

New high at cose actually. :O)

[liarspoker] 12/3/2008 08:57

Well May will probably see another decline and December another rise to new heights if the last few years are anything to go by JohnnyAD.

In the meantime ZZZZzzzzzz. :O)

[johnnyad] 12/3/2008 08:53

Labouring somewhat liars, still when she eventually pushes through we will hopefully see the birth of a new dawn in the share price ;-)

[liarspoker] 12/3/2008 08:12

Breaking out......

[liarspoker] 06/3/2008 08:31

Trading statement due Thursday, 3rd April.

[liarspoker] 29/2/2008 08:48

I missed those other statements - new non-exec director & all resolutions passed at the AGM.

There seems to be a double top at 300p and a double bottom at 280p - interesting imo.

[johnnyad] 26/2/2008 12:35

Sweet as the proverbial nut!