U And I Share Discussion Threads

[hugepants] 20/3/2017 13:00

Well RLE dropped sharply on no news then rose 10% in a few days. If there was anything material it would have been mentioned in the trading update surely?

[luckymouse] 18/3/2017 13:02

Sry to make a negative remark guys - but for me theres still to many black candles on this chart - someone is obviously still getting out - I would check the OBV & short term MF immediately before the results - if they are tanking someone knows something - conversely if they are strong rising its a good sign.
ATB LM

[hugepants] 17/3/2017 17:25

Topped up today.
Final results on 26th April according to the website

[eeza] 17/3/2017 14:52

The 'Bots' playing at Star Wars again.

[sleepy] 10/3/2017 08:13

Nice to know that property is always conservatively valued

[mad foetus] 09/3/2017 09:58

I recall from LXB there are real problems with NAV calculations for development sites. under normal rules you have to account for them at cost until development is complete, at which point there is a sharp uplift. In any event, property is always extremely conservatively valued, so NAV is invariably understated.

[skyship] 08/3/2017 14:46

"I do recall they were promising a valuation of the trading stock which would be very interesting albeit not mentioned in the update."

scburbs/speedsgh - many thanks for your posts above. I'd totally forgotten that!

The f/c 280p could well be outdone. Just a £10m revaluation would deliver another 12.5p on the NAV...

[speedsgh] 08/3/2017 13:22

Well remembered, scburbs. From last year's Preliminary Results rns...

Preliminary Results -

"Following discussions with stakeholders, the Group will, in future years report an EPRA NAV which includes an external valuation of the properties held at cost on our Balance Sheet. This will bring the Group into line with the majority of its peer group. The first reporting period prepared in this way will be the financial year ending 28th February 2017..."

Estimates
1.5 Valuation of property assets
The key source of estimation uncertainty rests in the values of property assets, which affects several categories of asset in the Balance Sheet.

The investment property portfolio (and the operating property) are stated at fair value, which requires a number of judgements and estimates in assessing the qualities of the Group's assets relative to market transactions.

The same uncertainties affect the determination of fair value of certain available-for-sale financial instruments with the further complexity that the value of these assets requires estimates of future construction costs, tenant demand and market yields.

The Group's development and trading properties are carried at the lower of cost and net realisable value. The determination of net realisable value relies upon similar estimates, with the added challenge, in some cases, of judgements about uncertain planning outcomes. These amounts are disclosed in note 8.

[scburbs] 08/3/2017 11:44

I for one will be very happy if they hit the bottom of the £65-70m range regardless of the £4m. That should generate material NAV growth.

With the running costs, £35m is not going to do anything too exciting to the NAV and if they had been at £40m there wouldn't have been anything to get excited about either (was £51m and £46m in the previous two years). It is a steady as she goes update which is fine if you are buying at current share price, albeit the company itself should be assessed against NAV.

I do recall they were promising a valuation of the trading stock which would be very interesting albeit not mentioned in the update.

[horndean eagle] 08/3/2017 11:19

Lets see if 18 numbers benefit from a £4m uplift. My guess is they won't and will instead pad out losses elsewhere. Last update was £65-70m gains for 2018.

[mad foetus] 08/3/2017 11:14

Thanks SBP for chasing up.

[valhamos] 08/3/2017 11:14

The appropriate time for 2018 guidance is surely next month when the results are announced.

[my retirement fund] 08/3/2017 10:46

If they were credible they would be shouting from the roof tops something to the lines of ...."Therefore we expect 2018 to be at least 4M ahead of guidance. In realty they wont be saying that as they will be using that 4M to cover their underperformance in 2018 no doubt!Not that I'm sceptical its just that this is what this lot are all about as has been consistently proved correct by an underperforming historical track record.

[spectoacc] 08/3/2017 10:30

Agree it's not as bad as it first seemed - thanks for the research. Also, I suspect most of us are in for the discount as much as the earnings.

[stupidboypike] 08/3/2017 10:28

Just got this from investor relations:-

"Many thanks for getting in touch. To clarify, we are within the range of guidance without the £4m. The £4m relates to projects that were in our FY17 guidance but have experienced minor delays meaning they will now be realised in FY18.

So to confirm, without the £4m (which will be realised in FY18) we are at the lower end of our guidance range for FY17."



I think that makes them a very good buy at this price. (my comment - not theirs!)
Best regards SBP

[valhamos] 08/3/2017 10:27

HugePants - agreed. Good update confirming gains realised in FY2017 within range though they would have liked to have done more and got closer to last year's figure. Always an issue of timing with these and the additional £4m will help towards FY2018 as they aim for £50m gains p.a. Discount to NAV too large.

[hugepants] 08/3/2017 10:04

Horndean Eagle8 Mar '17 - 09:13 - 759 of 762 2 0
I think your being a little optimistic in your reading of it. Id guess bottom of the range including gains to be booked. When have UAI actually ever surprised you on the upside.

It's pretty clear in that the guidance is only for gains in the "2017 financial year". ie year to end 2017. The gains to be booked after year end are not included.

"It is pleasing to note that development and trading gains realised in the 2017 financial year are within the range of guidance laid out at the interim results in October 2016, albeit at the lower end of the range. Projects contributing to the gains in the second half of the year included Birmingham International Park and Woking where we disposed of both sites having added value by securing improved planning consents. We also pre-let the entirety of the Vertium Building, a 172,000 sq. ft. prime commercial development in Dublin, triggering our profit payment entitlement. Management expect to secure further profits of £4 million ahead of the announcement of the full year results in April, from the sale of the remaining part of the site at Maidstone and two other projects that were included in guidance for the 2017 financial year."

[hugepants] 08/3/2017 09:36

Update ok. The discount to NAV on this stock looks to be at least 10% bigger than any other mainstream property stock so I topped up. Some will say a bigger discount is justified but I think its way overdone. Even a 30% discount to an NAV of say 278p at end December would give a 194p share price and you still collect a chunky dividend.

[salchow] 08/3/2017 09:17

At least they gave you a specific range and have come within it. I suppose it depends how you look at it. I expect they thought you should look at it as 35M good to 40M very good. I don't think you were supposed to look at it as 35M poor to 40M good.

[my retirement fund] 08/3/2017 09:15

Very disappointing as usual imo.

[horndean eagle] 08/3/2017 09:13

I think your being a little optimistic in your reading of it. Id guess bottom of the range including gains to be booked. When have UAI actually ever surprised you on the upside.

[spectoacc] 08/3/2017 08:38

That reading would explain the muted share price reaction, & the upbeat tone.

[mad foetus] 08/3/2017 08:18

I'm not sure that is right. Guidance was for 35-40m, they say it will be at the bottom range of that, but then go in to say that they expect to sell a property for an additional 4m profit before results are published (but after the end of year cut off). If you treat that 4m as last year's, they have hit the top of expectations. So it seems to me a slight timing issue is all, but as with many RNSs, the drafting isn't as clear as it should be. If I have time I will drop an email to see if they can clarify.

[spectoacc] 08/3/2017 08:16

It's an odd t/s - lots of "pleasing" and "stronger", accompanied by "..albeit at the lower end of the range..".

[quepassa] 08/3/2017 08:10

lower end of expectations.

the Uk property market is going through a murky phase.

qp