U And I Share Discussion Threads

[yupawiese2010] 20/10/2016 10:50

Dublin update.

[loobrush] 19/10/2016 22:42

I have a holding and despite the small write down in asset value they still seem incredibly cheap to me against all other REIT's.
There is a difference with them in that half the business is development and half rental income so it becomes difficult to value to a degree I suppose-despite that they are cheap.
I thing that they will be rerated as the post Brexit property fear fades and especially as they get towards their finals as that is when they announce the special dividends plus the normal ones.Their stated aim is to improve value by 15% pa and if they do that by finals the share price will be much higher.

[sleepy] 19/10/2016 21:23

Anyone seen or been in their boardroom?

[verulamium] 19/10/2016 20:45

I know their Bromley South development is only a small part of their work in progress, but I really don't understand the economics of it. Due to have been finished by now, it's now scheduled for Mid 2018. There generally seem to be a couple of workers on site, but everything's going painfully slowly. Apparently (according to local gossip) discovering the River Ravensbourne running through the site was a great surprise, even though it's been there for several thousand years. Seems strange to tie up so much money for so long rather than just getting it finished, unless cashflow's a problem. Still, the crane has a very nice U&I logo on it.

[skyship] 19/10/2016 19:16

Interesting to look at the chart of UAI versus two random picks - BLND (a major) and SREI (a minor). Will possibly post the cghart late tomorrow when back from a non-Java travel!

Looking back from Jun'07 when the property crash hit, UAI tracked these two until 2014. At that stage the discount widened and UAI substantially under-performed in Sp terms; but NOT in NAV terms.

What is apparent is that there have been numerous great trading opportunities in 2014, 15 & 16.

I actually sold stock @ 290p c2yrs ago; but bought back in too early and haven't played it well recently. Currently in HOLD mode & certainly won't be selling at a 40% NAV discount....especially when their successful Dublin investments are likely to be reflected well in the Finals.

[jl9] 19/10/2016 17:39

Just idle aping. Sorry.

[jl9] 19/10/2016 15:55

I'm not invested and haven't been for some while. I can't say what's going to happen with these going forward except that the omens are not good.

[salchow] 19/10/2016 13:51

JL9 - I can never understand why people who are so against a particular company or its directors bother hanging in when there are so many other opportunities. Clearly anyone who felt that way could have got out at over 250p only a year ago. Do you see a realistic likelihood that there will be changes that will see the share price improve to nearer net asset value?

[jl9] 19/10/2016 12:58

salchow - the bonus scheme (among other things) was the subject of institutional anger that eventually forced change at the company. There are even now one or two hanging on in various roles just so they can collect their bonus payments.

The utter mess here is the result of perverse investment incentives and simultaneously the protection they need against predator interest that would see them lose their jobs. Genius.

[salchow] 19/10/2016 12:29

JL9 - I am not looking back over past year's accounts as I don't have time. Perhaps you could provide details. I can tell you that over the past twelve months the directors have bought a total of 321,066 shares on numerous occasions from 237p down to 160p which gives me some comfort.

[valhamos] 19/10/2016 10:45

EPRA adjusted eps for the last couple of years has totalled 41p which puts the comment "Over the past 5.5 years they have profits of circa 43p a share." into some perspective.

Development gains of £35-40m forecast for this year (£11.5m booked in H1) with £65-70m expected for the following year.

There are risks (and its good to see the reduction in gearing) with property prices but UAI looks attractive at these levels imo.

[strathroyal] 19/10/2016 08:30

Been following these for sometime without getting involved and after these results, that approach remains. It is apparent that they should not have paid last year's special dividend as it wasn't affordable, average cost of debt is 5% which alone says a lot about how management is viewed and swaps would take a further 11p off nav if liquidated.

Of course management have expressed a more positive take but not for me (yet).

[horndean eagle] 19/10/2016 08:18

Skyship

Why not scroll through your posts over the last few years vs my own and see how they stack up. UAI have promised huge development gains etc for years. They barely translate into profits. This time next year Rodney. That sums it up. Over the past 5.5 years they have profits of circa 43p a share. That's off a starting NAV of circa 250p or a return of 3% or so a year. This is despite them picking up cheap development assets in the depths of the recession when they raised a lot of cash to do exactly that (2009). How many years do you need before profits come to fruition. This restated nav isn't the panacea you guys think it will be. All they will be doing is reporting lower profits in future as they have written up assets in the meantime.

[skyship] 19/10/2016 07:57

Bizarre comment from HE.

Figures and prospects actually encouraging; and the NAV not panned by Brexit. So the discount of just under 40% headlines the continued undervaluation...

2. The development portfolio is reported at the lower of cost and net realisable value at the end of August; a full EPRA NAV will be reported at the end of the financial year to value the development and trading assets at fair value.

[colonel a] 19/10/2016 07:50

Can't say I agree.
They quote development and trading gains, which is what they generate.
No doubt HMRC is interested in the actual split and accountants are paid to try to minimise the result of that interest.
Drop in NAV is not good but not so surprising as it is a conservative figure in uncertain times.

[horndean eagle] 19/10/2016 07:31

Today's results are terrible again. Company is just a dog with fleas. Even with new management there seems to be no change. Why report trading gains rather than profits from development. Better headlines I guess. Existing investment portfolio looks terrible. I know a lot of you guys have been in for years but surely the penny must have dropped for you now as well. This company is run for the benefit of management rather than shareholders. Hence the discount.

[scburbs] 18/10/2016 21:32

Agreed Skyship and Speedsgh. The fact that H1 may be average doesn't mean they aren't very good value at current discounted share price.

[skyship] 18/10/2016 19:40

Scburbs - accept that; just need to see an affirmation of no great NAV reduction.

[speedsgh] 18/10/2016 19:37

scburbs - not expecting much from tomorrow tbh but will be interesting to see updated NAV & how that contrasts with current share price Value will out eventually. In the meantime am happy to collect the income.

[scburbs] 18/10/2016 18:17

Unless they publish a valuation of all the trading stock I wouldn't get too excited about H1 results. Slide 22 makes clear that H1 will be very underwhelming from a trading gains perspective.

hxxp://www.uandiplc.com/~/media/Files/D/Development-Securities/results-and-presentations/2016/prelims-presentation-2016-print.PDF