U And I Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 29/4/2016 15:55

I couldn't work out what the big increase in trade receivables was for. The notes for that line item, 9 or 10 I forget which, weren't much help. Once received they would be a big help to cash, but the increase itself was a bit of a warning.

[spittingbarrel] 29/4/2016 15:37

Hmmm - it failed miserably to get through that resistance at 205, we are hardly any better than before the results now.

[stopaloss] 28/4/2016 16:38

eeza

Thanks for that. I know how its calculated but it seems they have different ideas for the EPS and DPS figures. For example ADVFN have EPS 26.8 and DPS 13.9, whereas Barclays have EPS 26.8 and DPS 5.9 (assume they haven't taken the special divi into account) and Thisismoney have the same figures so I guess I was right, they have got the decimal point in the wrong place........

[strathroyal] 28/4/2016 15:20

Skyship - I'm with you on JPEL but await more details on timescale which is also the issue with DNE. Two very good investments at some stage.

I would feel happier with UAI if they were prepared to increase the basic dividend. Paying out via special dividends is the right approach when dealing with a one-off special situation (ARBB/STB and the sale of EDLs being a good example)but having a policy of holding the regular dividend and topping up with a special suggests that the quality and profitability of a number of their projects is in question. At least that's my reading.

[skyship] 28/4/2016 14:57

strath - I've now taken the turn in SEP. They like UAI were crudely oversold.

Personally I think the best value in that space is now JPEL following the recent Strategic Review which makes them a liquidation play. Nevertheless, best value overall remains UAI. Do think again...

[eeza] 28/4/2016 14:39

17.5 (EPS) / 13.9 (Div) = 1.26

17.1 (Epra EPS) / 13.9 (Div) = 1.23

[stopaloss] 28/4/2016 14:30

Dividend cover numbers for UAI are interesting :

1.93 - ADVFN
0.42 - Thisismoney.co.uk
4.05 - Barclays stockbrokers
4.27 - LSE

Thisismoney is pretty naff so may have got the decimal point in the wrong place. Barclays get their company information feeds from LSE but don't agree with their figure (close though). Anyone got an idea of the accurate figure? If it was 0.42 obviously this would not tally with their proposed divi's going forward.......

[strathroyal] 28/4/2016 13:39

speedsgh - One share I had been watching (and I know others on here had too) was SEP. Unfortunately it got tipped in the IC before I had the funds to buy and has since risen quite sharply, although it is still at a good price.

I am now back in funds and looking to buy UANC, an old favourite of mine which I have traded a few times. This was originally THG and was formed by a reverse takeover. If you look at the recently reported board changes you will see that the old THG management has largely gone so I think the transformation is basically complete. Resullts end of May.

DYOR

strathroyal

[mad foetus] 28/4/2016 13:34

I expect we'll see some buying in the next few days as the results sink in. In an uncertain market this looks to be a very attractive investment imo, and I anticipate those who wrote positive articles before the results will write something equally positive shortly.

[speedsgh] 28/4/2016 12:47

Skyship - Took just 5 months last time round from trough (Oct 14) to 250p (Feb 15); 9 months to peak c280p (Jun 15). So 250p by end 2016 eminently achievable subject to headwinds (Brexit uncertainty etc). In the meantime happy to collect the divs.

[skyship] 28/4/2016 12:33

Good to have broken through the 200p level and trade well North of the 50day MA; but IMO we need to substantially break through the 205p level to convincingly break the downterend. Perversely, these may be an even better buy at 210p BID.

Eeza and others. UAI is a propco, so don't rely so much upon the Conventional Trading Company norms of EPS. Propcos dance to a different tune & earnings can swing wildly upon project completions. You need to look over a rolling 3yr rasnge for a development company.

Well pleased that at last they are going to revalue projects rather than book upon completion. A sensible move which will have a profound effect upon the NAV this time next year.

Personally I won't be selling anytime soon; and like others I endorse the 250p target, which IMO we could well see in 2016.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[spob] 28/4/2016 11:27

(291+142)/205 = 111%

approx 28% per year upside if shareprice/NAV discount closes in three years time

if the discount gap only closes 50% in that time period, would still leave almost 16% possible upside per year over the 3 years

obviously this is just a rough approximation

no guarantees, etc etc

[scburbs] 28/4/2016 11:27

Thanks Sharpshare, Very interesting, relevant extract from results below. Did they say anything more on the build to rent fund? Particularly interesting would be how much capital is expected to be committed by capital partner.

"Following discussions with stakeholders, the Group will, in future years report an EPRA NAV which includes an external valuation of the properties held at cost on our Balance Sheet. This will bring the Group into line with the majority of its peer group. The first reporting period prepared in this way will be the financial year ending 28th February 2017."

[sharpshare] 28/4/2016 11:14

In the webcast presentation they announced that from next finals EPRA NAV will include a measure of development gains (currently valued at cost) to bring reporting more in line with recent industry practice. This is likely to substantially increase this NAV figure.

Targetted gross development gains within the next 3 years are £177m or 142p per share (with another potential £80m already identified for years 4 and 5). Some of this is likely to be included in the new NAV calculation.

Reported NAV excluding future development gains is 291p.

eg Inland Homes PLC recently announced NAV of 53p and an a new EPRAV NAV of 84p. INL share price now 78p.

[mad foetus] 28/4/2016 09:24

It looks likely to break out of a bloody awful looking downtrend.

[speedsgh] 28/4/2016 09:23

strath - which companies do you see as more worthy of consideration, if you don't mind sharing?

[strathroyal] 28/4/2016 09:20

Can't have this one myself. Net debt has increased this year so that if the new dividend policy had already been brought in, shareholders would only have received 5.9p. They have reduced next year's outlook (and improved Yr 2), commented that they are happy with gearing up to 50% so odds against for a special dividend next year.

So if you buy today, you get a good, even excellent, dividend yield this year but one that is likely to drop next year. Wouldn't deny that the discount to NAV remains attractive but other factors (for me) make several other companies more worthy of consideration.

[mad foetus] 28/4/2016 09:10

It is worth looking back a year - the share price was 250p and since then we have had 14p of dividends and 15p increase in NAV plus lots of directors buys at 225-230p. I think 250p is a reasonable short term target.

[tiltonboy] 28/4/2016 08:58

Well done SKYSHIP. I've taken a quick profit for a couple of holders, and will probably take the others out above 210p. I just didn't get enough at the 182p level...and didn't get any for myself as I still had unfulfilled client orders. I will be back in if they drift back down again.

[speedsgh] 28/4/2016 08:50

All pretty positive. Probably explains £500m+ director buys since Oct 2015 (note these were all at prices somewhat higher than the current price). Would hope/expect to see the discount to NAV reduce over coming weeks.

Forward visibility of development/trading gains + revised dividend poicy gives reassurance on future special dividend payments which ought to attract income investors at this level.

I do note that some development/trading gains have been pushed back from 2017 to 2018...

"Good visibility on pipeline of total gains Aggregate expectations for development and trading gains unchanged over the next two years at £114.0 million. Revised guidance for the individual years - FY2017: £42.0 million from £53.0 million; FY2018: £72.0 million from £61.0 million".

[my retirement fund] 28/4/2016 08:50

Why dont they issue every shareholder with a free tradable preference share on a share for share basis and pay surplus through this on a quarterly basis? They could declare and schedule its payment in the annual results.

[spob] 28/4/2016 08:39

£114m of development and trading gains expected over the next 24 months

£177m over the next 36 months

[mad foetus] 28/4/2016 08:35

the move into build to rent is interesting: L&G recently announced it was putting £800m into build to rent and I know others in the space are looking to do something similar. It is a very good way of providing affordable accommodation and also meeting the income requirements of an aging demographic and I expect it will also get government support in one form or another, whether through tax breaks or cheap land to develop.

If UAI can become significant players in that space there is a lot of potential work.

[skyship] 28/4/2016 08:29

Hope they continue with the post results video presentations...

[spob] 28/4/2016 08:21

Projections for epra nav 12/24 months from now ?