Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[mpclag] 17/4/2012 07:18

I reckon you will have to wait until May- I have reduced and will be totally out of all stocks shortly.
Hopefully the market will have its normal crazy summer upset and I can buy back for 10-20% under what I sold for.

[sanks] 16/4/2012 15:13

I still await an exit at £14
I have no reason to believe Mrs Market will not give this to me. I trust her. She is my friend. We are bonded with friendship, shagship, love, lust and trust.
Money is just a common denominator. It brings us together. I trust she will pay me what is rightly mine. Thank you Mrs Market, i await with highest respect and lust, and will continue to show you my patience and my tool.

Sanksalot.......exit target remains £14

[85gary] 16/4/2012 13:36

For general East Africa interest. The bit that caught my eye is the proposed export routings and refinery location proposals.



I see that bribery allocation is settled out of court.

[sanks] 15/4/2012 19:13

Thats some very powerful q's monkeymagic, you must have 3 brain cells in one place and 2 shagger cells protecting the 3 brain cells.

Answers to your q's:
1- originally there are 2 poodees to every poodaa, but with QE you can multiply them by the factor of 3 and then add a loola
2- yep, they are derivatives of financial shagorams, but not latin. They derive from every day financial shaggers in the city, and are commonly known as poodee poodaa.
3- Poodee only chucks one piece of wood, mainly a 4 by 2, this is only done in extreme poodee towards brokers who fail to book orders of clients playing the game like they don't want you to play.

I hope the above helps with my exit target of £14
Sankslaot

[supersturrock] 15/4/2012 17:46

TLW has also grown to be my biggest holding and I guess we will just have to get used to the fact that Africa is not like the North sea. Just think of how much oil TLW will be producing in 3-5 years' time if it is still independent.

[24thedough] 15/4/2012 17:24

This leaves me wondering if I am right in having 50% of my portfolio invested in tlw despite having bought my first shares at £1

East African Business Week (Kampala)
EMAIL PRINT SHARE
Uganda: Kenya Oil Discovery - Is an Oil Refinery in Nation Still Viable?
BY JEROME MUKASA AND EMMA ONYANGO, 2 APRIL 2012
Comment (2)
ANALYSIS

Kampala â€" The discovery of oil in Kenya has raised a complex question - Is it still viable to build a refinery in Uganda or not?

Following Tullow Oil's discovery of oil in the Ngamia-1 exploration well located in the Turkana County in north western Kenya, different schools of thought have cropped up with many claiming that Uganda's oil sector may lose out to Kenya.

It should be noted that the discovery made in Kenya has not yet ascertained whether the oil is of commercial viability. That has not stopped skeptics though from doubting Uganda's viability for building a refinery. For many the idea of a pipeline to the coast may have to be revisited.

The well in Kenya was drilled to an intermediate depth of 1,041 metres and was successfully logged and sampled. The oil found, according to a statement from Tullow oil, has similar properties to the light waxy crude discovered in Uganda, though Uganda's is closer to the surface at around 800 - 900 metres.

One school of thought suggests that Kenya's find may to some extent be a game-changer because the country already has a refinery, though old and currently operating at half capacity, and also has pipelines and other infrastructure in place.

The question many are posing though is whether Uganda still needs to build a refinery when the one in Kenya can just be upgraded to cater for the entire region.

This comes on the back of an agreement signed between the government of South Sudan and Kenya to have a pipeline directed to the Mombasa refinery. This, according to industry analysts, complicated Uganda's desire to build a refinery because it (Uganda) had hoped to refine South Sudan's oil.

Ms Irene Batebe, the Petroleum Officer-Refining at Uganda's Ministry of Energy and Mineral development, however, disagrees saying that studies for the setting up of a refinery in Uganda that were done in 2010 had shown it was viable to construct a refinery in Uganda given the low refining capacity in the region. "The region's total demand is estimated at 164,000 barrels per day and yet the region has only one 70,000 barrel refinery at Mombasa that is also operating at half capacity," Batebe said.

"If you look at Uganda alone, oil consumption in 2010 was at 21,000 barrels per day and yet the supplies are expensive and often unreliable. A refinery in Uganda would save the situation," Batebe told the press during the ministry's interface with the media in Kampala last week.

Batebe also added that the refinery would be developed as a Public Private Partnership and that 29 square kilometers of land had been earmarked for the refinery.

"The study recommended a phased approach to the set up of the refinery and a small one capable of producing 20,000 barrels per day would be set up first at a cost of $600m, then later on one capable of producing 60,000 barrels per day would be set up at a cost of $2billion," she said.

Mr. Honey Malinga, the Assistant Commissioner Geophysics in the Petroleum Exploration and Production department at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, says the decision to have a refinery in Uganda was done after a joint discussion between the heads of state of East Africa.

"The issue of the refinery didn't come up yesterday; it has been around for sometime. The heads of state of the EAC in 2007 agreed that in order to have security of supply, a study should be carried out. It was done by the EAC and it found out that we should have more refineries in the region. "Against that background, Uganda did a feasibility study. So it doesn't matter whether we have two or more refineries in the region provided they are here to help us," Malinga said.

The decision to have a refinery could have been appropriate at the time since Kenya had not yet discovered oil. One thing that is clear is that Uganda does not have money to build an oil refinery much as it would want one on its territory.

It is apparent that the same players in Uganda's oil industry are also in Kenya oil exploration and it is highly unlikely that a company like Tullow or China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC) or Total would go ahead to build a refinery in Uganda and another in Kenya, assuming the later quantities are viable.

The Uganda case becomes complicated in that the amount of oil discovered so far would only last for some 20 or 30 years making it not feasible to build a refinery at a whopping $2 billion.

To make matters worse there is a likelihood that as peace returns to Somalia, many companies which had earlier been granted licences to explore for oil will throng the country and in the absence of infrastructure, the cheapest and easiest alternative is to ferry the oil by sea to Mombasa, get it refined and distributed to the market.

This then puts Uganda in a dilemma in that whereas Kampala may want a refinery on its soil, it has huge interests in Somalia since together with Burundi they have sacrificed a lot to pacify that country.

But at the same time Uganda would like to reap from the benefits of a prosperous Somalia, the way the united States has reaped from Iraq. But this could mean supporting a move to have Somali oil refined at Mombasa which is against Kampala's interests.

One thing that is certain is that oil companies do not care about the opportunities a refinery would bring to Uganda or any country. They are only interested in getting profit and if we are to go by the rules of commerce, the more profitable venture would consequently attract more investment.

Then there is the issue of Southern Sudan. The world's newest nation has already signed an agreement with Kenya to build a pipeline and transport its oil to Mombasa for refining.

This prospect together with the newly discovered oil (assuming it is viable) and the possibility of discovering oil in Somalia could warrant a new refinery in Mombasa.

The mere fact that Mombasa has the advantage of being an international sea port renders it a more viable venture for any investor.

But a section of industry experts have backed the idea of building a refinery in Uganda saying that transporting the oil to Mombasa would be very expensive because of the nature of Uganda's crude (which is waxy) since it would require a heated pipeline.

Their argument is further strengthened by the fact that since oil exploration is being carried out on the DR Congo side of Lake Albert, a refinery in Uganda would provide her neighbour with a closer and cheaper alternative to have its oil refined.

Apart from a pipeline, Uganda could opt for a railway which would serve multiple functions including carrying crude to Mombasa.

Kenya still has advantage since it already has a refinery in place and is not landlocked like her East African counterpart. This means that if Kenya found oil of commercial viability, she would fast track her infrastructure ahead of Uganda. Kenya also has several options since it has proximity to a coastline and could opt to export oil as crude.

Malinga argued that the discovery of oil in Kenya would help the region share ideas and infrastructure from a wider perspective. "Kenya has been in this longer than Uganda and have drilled more wells than Uganda. We have been promoting ourselves as a single bloc and so as a region, we are happy that they have finally struck oil. We would therefore like them to fast track so that whatever infrastructure we have in the region can be shared," he added.

Uganda's oil and gas sector though remains more attractive to investors given the discovery rate is at 90%.

As the debate rages on whether to build a refinery, a pipeline or a railway in Uganda, it boils down to one fact; the money. Any investor would like assurances that they will get maximum value for their money. The mere fact that Uganda does not have the money to put up a refinery makes it more likely that Kenya may be the most viable option.

Their case is made much stronger in that a refinery in Uganda would be assured of business for some 20 or 30 years yet that in Kenya could still be useful even if the oil dried up in the entire region since it would still be needed to refine crude imported from elsewhere as the case is now.

But as the saying goes whoever pays the piper calls the tunes. It boils down to who has the money to decide where to build a refinery.

Simple economics seems to favour Kenya, but it will be Tullow to answer the riddle. To build the refinery in Uganda or not will remain the question.

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Tagged: Business, East Africa, Kenya, Petroleum, Uganda


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[eipgam] 15/4/2012 13:11

Uganda

Commercial oil production to start in five years

Ugandans will have to wait for five more years before enjoying proceeds from the much treasured oil resources because plans to meet the earlier target are "quite challenging", oil companies have said.

Contrary to information provided by the government, Total General Manager in-charge of exploration and production Loic Laurandel told the parliamentary Ad Hoc Committee on Oil on Friday that "We have to wait for a minimum of four and a half years. The first oil from these blocks is expected in 2017."

Total joined Uganda's oil sector in February when Tullow Oil transferred two thirds of its assets to China's CNOOC and Total in a deal worth about $2.9b. CNOOC is seen as instrumental in the construction of the oil refinery.

Mr Laurandel said they are presently appraising the areas (Exploration Area 1), New Exploration Area 1, Exploration Area 2, Kanywataba Prospect Area and Kingfisher Discovery Area. Appraising involves getting additional geological data, testing wells and analysing the oil samples, among others.

Government and Tullow Oil had initially planned to have first oil production by 2009 but this was pushed to 2010 and later to 2012 as Ugandans waited in vain.

Mr Laurandel said they face challenges of importing equipment needed for the work because Uganda is landlocked and, therefore, it takes time to get the deliveries to arrive. He said the little oil that would be produced before 2017 would be used within the country by mainly heavy industries.

Since 2011, Tullow has sold 67 per cent of its shares to Total Ltd and Chinese firm, CNOOC, with each now holding a 33.33 stake. Mr Laurandel said over the next two months, they would drill between 15 and 20 blocks. He also said they would invest $300 million within the next 12 months and that by 2017, $10 billion.

A senior official in the Ministry of Energy said in February that commercial oil production is expected to start in 2015 when the oil refinery is completed.

It is expected that the construction of a refinery could take three years and would coincide with the time oil will start flowing.
The government has put it clear that it will not export crude oil for refinery.

[e-mail]

[eipgam] 14/4/2012 12:14

Thanks Ben... copied to AOI thread. Cheers.

[ben chod] 14/4/2012 08:57

seriously i think you need professional help

[monkeymagic3] 13/4/2012 17:40

Sanks, I'm new to this game so can I ask a couple of questions?

(1) how many poodees are there in a poodaa and will quantative easing have any adverse affect?
(2) I think I am right in saying that poodee and poodaa are modern day derivatives of the well known Latin phrase poodeei, poodaaii, poodayoo ( we poodees, we poodaad, we poodayood). If this is the case, where is the cheapest place for me to buy pickled onion monster munch?
(3) how much wood would a wood chuck, chuck, if a wood chuck could chuck poodee?

Appreciate your help.

[sanks] 13/4/2012 10:18

Yeah, he's sitting back till it hits £14 so i can exit my doggie position.
Very kind of him

Hope this helps

[eipgam] 13/4/2012 10:09

85G... that's a very long proposed pipeline coming out of Sudan. 3000kms? You would have think that the Chinese would have to be involved in such a large capital project.

Anyway, bb chatter elsewhere seems to suggest that we can expect further news from the Ngamia prospect within a week or two. And if Tim O'Hanlons comments are anything to go by.....

[sillyname] 13/4/2012 08:16

Tullow Oil: Nomura raises target from 1,650p to 1,663p.

[sanks] 13/4/2012 00:00

Gonna keep my loola on the table till this poodees to a more poodaa level towards my exit target of £14.
Short term loola lift before the poodee poodaa continues

Hope this helps
Sanks

[85gary] 12/4/2012 22:24

That is some presentation eipgam. The more I see, the more I'm fascinated by this region. The combination with Tullow on a lot of their prospects is not lost on me. I looked a while ago at the various players in this area. As an aside I noted that Africa Oil have a holding in Horn Petroleum, so you have a "safe" way to play Somalia as well. I guess all depends on drill results, but maybe risk is spread rather than looking at Red Emporer / Range, although I'm tempted to speculate a small amount in any one of the three after today's drop?

Did you take note of the "proposed pipeline" routing in the pdf coming down from South Sudan? China may have an interest in this routing as they are increasingly concerned of no oil coming out via Sudan. I have no idea how it all plays out, but it has caught my eye. Export through lamu and Mombassa (for Uganda) would provide a welcomed alternative in case of continued problems in Straits of Hormuz and S Sudan via Sudan, assuming trouble continues Sudan / South Sudan over the next few years?

Hopefully no objections from others to chat occasionally on this area? As you say eipgam, worth a look at that pdf just for Tullow part imo.

[eipgam] 12/4/2012 19:44

85gary, they have a new presentation out on their website today


It's not o/t as there is a lot about TLW in it.... AOI seem well pleased to have TLW as a partner.

[eipgam] 12/4/2012 19:20

KingKev2 - 12 Apr'12 - 19:02 - 276 of 278



from the AOI bb.

[eipgam] 12/4/2012 09:38

They may have been attempting to discredit political rivals, and TLW was but a pawn in the game?

[phillis] 12/4/2012 09:37

the question remains: who was behind the atetmpts to blacken TLW's name and reputation

[sanks] 11/4/2012 19:12

Does your name mean "sheep" in Nobland?

[eipgam] 11/4/2012 18:34

proved my point..... sell at £14?

[sanks] 11/4/2012 18:15

Cheers spenny...no point explaining to the other type of poodaays, they're in ramp mode, hence my £14 exit target will not register!

I could, on the other hand, exit and close my poodee position now, but i insist in seeing this one through all the way to poodaa land.

Hope it helps
Sanks.............44p to drip and i'm out

[spennysimmo] 11/4/2012 17:35

He called it short on 27th March when the share price was 15.91. Good call.

[eipgam] 11/4/2012 17:30

Not like me to take the bait... but what a couple of peabrained nincompoops we have here!

"Got me sell order in place at £14.00 Can't wait till it hits...that'll be me done for the year."

Any halfwit can sell at £14 when the share price is £14.40....

[spennysimmo] 11/4/2012 17:22

Good call harry.