Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[ben chod] 05/3/2012 09:47

Tullow Oil Jefferies flashnote. February 21.2012

[85gary] 04/3/2012 09:02

The bit I'm picking up on is that Uganda can't afford to dawdle now they have discovered oil, i.e. all that can change if Kenya and Tanzania discover oil?

[ringer12] 02/3/2012 18:22

A target of 1650P and advice to reduce..strange logic.

[pr4w2b0y] 02/3/2012 17:16

lol, here's to another 6 years.

[eipgam] 02/3/2012 16:53

You're early... the bb 6th birthday party isn't until the 17th March!

I also sense that all is well with TLW.

[pr4w2b0y] 02/3/2012 16:26

Agreed habax.

This is a little dated but still worth watching. A nervous AH at 3:30 re Government approval in hindsight I don't he had anything to worry about.

[habax] 02/3/2012 14:47

and short after nomuras reduce, the share price pops :)

To me this is a buy. Given the current oil price and the potential to produce 200000 boepd to me the shares are fairly valued. But there is upside to the oil price, IMO and there is exploration potential in Tullows prospects. Altogether I am optimistic for these shares.

[sillyname] 02/3/2012 13:10

Nomura's new target price for Tullow is £16.50

[ringer12] 01/3/2012 15:55

A quick trot would be even better.

[tomgorham12] 01/3/2012 08:58

Hopefully not tempting fate, but barring wider market issues, would like to see a gentle run up before the results mid-month.

[tomgorham12] 29/2/2012 13:07

wodahsnoom - I've worked there, and the answer is 'sometimes'.

[wodahsnoom] 29/2/2012 08:19

Does anybody proof- read headlines in the Scotsman?

[85gary] 29/2/2012 08:16

Rumour is out there still?

[85gary] 28/2/2012 22:04

No worries eipgam. Having seen c31161's post and your mentioning Tullow standing aside on Ntorya-1 I thought I'd mention there is an interesting debate on Aminex board as to whether Tullow are standing aside on just this well or on the licence as a whole.

If you read this c31161, maybe you have clarified your opinion on Tullow's position with your source? I'm sure there are many here who would be interested in your view.

Personally I see a 3m gas discovery, 16.5m of further interest (Aminex not saying much on this, excluding tullow from gaining any info imo), having put in tubing to facilitate flow test later, which may actually suggest a liquid find! Then of course they are drilling deeper.

All very interesting.

[c31161] 28/2/2012 21:12

sorry if this has already been posted

London broker Shore Capital has raised its net asset value estimate on Solo Oil (LON:SOLO) to 1.6 pence a share from the previous 1.2 pence following the news of a gas reservoir discovery in the Ntorya-1 well.

Ntorya 1 was drilled in an onshore location in eastern Tanzania, as part of the Ruvuma block Production Sharing Agreement in the country operated by Aminex (LON:AEX).

Shore Capital analyst Craig Howie said: "What is clear is that Aminex and Solo have a declared gas discovery on their hands, taking them firmly into the appraisal stage which seems likely to include infill seismic data acquisition and drilling of two wells over the next couple of years."

The well was deepened earlier this month after it initially missed its primary pre-drill target. However it did encounter gas deeper in the well. Yesterday Aminex revealed that the Ntorya-1 well found a sand interval with 25 metres gross pay, with a 3 metre net gas bearing pay zone.

Aminex is the operator of the project and it has a 56.25 per cent in the asset, while Solo Oil owns an 18.75 per cent interest. Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) is also a partner with a 25 per cent stake. However it decided not to participate in the well deepening exercise.

As a result, Aminex has a 75 per cent stake in the deeper section and Solo has the remaining 25 per cent.

Howie wrote in note on Solo Oil that Ntorya-1 was originally targeting high quality sands previously encountered in Likonde-1, 14 kilometres to the north. Ntorya-1 has since surprised on the upside, with deepening operations and logging resulting in the gas discovery just announced.

Although the Ntorya-1 discovery well is now due to be deepened further, it is clear that Ruvuma has already been materially de-risked by drilling of the Ntorya prospect and the improved stratigraphic understanding this provides across the whole block, the analyst believes.

"We have revisited our Risked NAV estimate for Solo which rises to 1.6 p/share from 1.2 p/share previously. The Ruvuma project continues to dominate our sum-of-the-parts valuation and we look forward to an updated resource estimate at the appropriate time."

Solo Oil was last trading at 0.68 pence.

[eipgam] 28/2/2012 19:48

Thanks for your reply Gary... now you have answered it, I am not sure why I asked it as I now remember that TLW unequivocally stated recently that they are definitely oil focussed (as is confirmed by stepping aside at Ntorya? (AEX))

So I think that BLVN are a very unlikely target for TLW.

Got there in the end... that's what bb's are all about. That, and telling everyone what you're having for dinner (I have to admit to spending far too much time reading the drivel on a certain other board!)

[85gary] 28/2/2012 19:16

Not sure eipgam. I don't know enough of BLVN to comment. My gut feeling is the cost of dealing with the volume of gas is a problem, so may put Tullow and shareholders off? Dragon seem to have done well to drop judging by share price reaction, but maybe they want to cherry pick? Anybody else hold a view? I understand Tullow was the rumoured interested party before Dragon so I see why you ask the question.

[eipgam] 28/2/2012 18:57

I won't fret about what Macquarie say.... just prior to us reaching all time high, one of the acclaimed brokers had us down as a sell with a 1000p target!

Does anybody think we will be interested in BLVN now that they have been roughed up a bit by DGO?

[85gary] 28/2/2012 18:55

Bushwhacker, spot on......my take too. I must stop trying to be humorous! It is obviously the way I tell 'em

[85gary] 28/2/2012 18:52

ringer12.........i.e. that is what is written in the article. I had to read it a few times......I think the journalist got confused!

[bushwhacker] 28/2/2012 18:49

85 Gary- I think the sentence is not correct- $1.5 billion refinery I think is what they mean- not $1.5 billion barrels per day!! In any event Tullow no longer is responsible for all the peripheral infrastructure, and no doubt they will negotiate with their stronger partners re pipelines and refineries. Not seeing what contratual repsonsibilities they have, with their new partners, it is difficult to surmise, but Tullow is an exploration company foremost, and will do what they do best, in Uganda, other African countries and accross the Atlantic.

[flyingbull] 28/2/2012 18:44

Looking for a challenge!? This is the third monthly Oil stock competition including Advfn users since the beginning of this year. To post your entries for March, please go to the following link

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[ringer12] 28/2/2012 18:43

Excuse my ignorance but what exactly is a $1.5 billion barrelspd refinery.

[85gary] 28/2/2012 18:27

I see Macquarie has downgraded Tullow Oil from neutral to underperform.



Or maybe market reacted negatively to this sentence?

Moreover, a $1.5 billion barrels-a-day refinery and a 1,300 kilometer-long pipeline are expected to be constructed to support an oil export project.



My personal view is, looking at long term graph, although share price went to all time high it did not manage to break trendline. I guess shareprice might meander a while? (I hope you can see what I mean as I'm not confident enough to post a graph)!