Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[kevjones2] 17/8/2016 16:37

"KEV --- the President of Ghana is scheduled to do a switching on ceremony tomorrow at the TEN project...TLW would be seen as disrespectful if an RNS was not released...but there again the directors might take it with a pinch of salt....who knows."

Ibug, I agree there is a very high possibility of an RNS tomorrow but assuming they'll all be busy wining and dining the Ghanaians, monitoring the actual switching on process, flow, equipment etc, they may not get the time for an RNS to announce something everyone knows is happening anyway. Stating (anything really) with certainty can lead to disappointment with potential investors. That's how ramping CAN negatively affect a company - no matter in how small a way. I thought you agreed and said I had made a 'fair point'?

[kevjones2] 17/8/2016 16:37

Double post.

[kevjones2] 17/8/2016 16:32

That's a valid point, Ibug. Everyone used to assume that oil needs rose in winter because of cold (referring to the biggest oil market - the US)but it's actually the summer months - air conditioning, sprinklers etc)!

However, even including that good point by Ibug, it's worth noting that Tullow's share price stayed fairly even during the pre-oil price crisis years - regardless of seasonal demand. It's coming together here but it will just take time, in my opinion.

[ibug] 17/8/2016 16:30

KEV --- the President of Ghana is scheduled to do a switching on ceremony tomorrow at the TEN project...TLW would be seen as disrespectful if an RNS was not released...but there again the directors might take it with a pinch of salt....who knows.


Looking forward to tomorrow morning...either way this looks to be a good investment --- very young long life projects.

[ibug] 17/8/2016 16:25

Investors have not realised that this time of year equates to maximum drawdown for oil related products that every year production of oil has failed to keep pace with. This year might be different but history of production for the past ten years show a pronounced dip with supply vs production and that dip tends to move markets for oil to a higher price.

Just observations of historical fact...perhaps this year will be different...but it would harbour a surprise imo....Thus oil prices short term are likely to rise this week and next imo benefitting the TLW share price

[kevjones2] 17/8/2016 16:24

No problem, Ibug. Let's hope there is an RNS tomorrow but if there isn't, any potential new investors/readers on/of this board should not be disappointed. The RNS will come because Tullow are obliged to inform the market of any negative issues with TEN. Assuming there are no such issues the RNS will come when Tullow feel like issuing it. That might well be tomorrow, Friday, next week, it doesn't matter. Things are looking very good here.

[nicebut] 17/8/2016 16:17

You`d think PoO approaching $50 again would`ve had more of an effect, but not atm.

BTW Odey dropped back to 4.7% short from 4.8% on 12th (as reported today)...Worth noting..Have they started to close?

[ibug] 17/8/2016 16:17

KEV --- VALID POINT TAKEN...WILL calm down and just wait....thanks for the reminder.

[kevjones2] 17/8/2016 16:07

Ibug, I really wish you'd calm down. There may well be an RNS tomorrow but it will be because Tullow has decided to issue one not because Merrill Lynch or any other company think so. There may be an share price rise up to 285p as suggested by whomever you quoted not because they said so but because they guessed correctly. You've now turned that guess subtly into an 'expected 30% re-rate'. What you're doing is called ramping and ramping always ends up having a negative impact.

I don't want to start an argument with you but you have previous so I'm asking you politely to dial it down a bit.

[ibug] 17/8/2016 15:06

The SHORTERS will be watching and weeping on the morrow imo....as the share price soars on an expected 30% rerate. i WILL BE CLAPPING ON THE SIDELINES...lol

[hazl] 17/8/2016 15:02

phew been out........climbing a fraction again I see

[ibug] 17/8/2016 14:52

Still an offset against gross profit and more revenue for debt payment amounting to about $700 million USD + interest and bank charges incurred during the project development cycle imo.

[hearts1] 17/8/2016 14:45

The carry costs are not a lump sum, but taken back each month under the terms of the PSC.

[ibug] 17/8/2016 14:07

iNVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDER FORMATION --- with enough volume this might takeoff rather sharply if news as expected is released about the TEN production well producing first oil of circ: 23,000 bopd tomorrow....plus a statement about Ghana paying 15% carry costs back to developers. Effectively derisking Tullow's debt repayment programme; also production from TEN is planned to rise to approx 80,000bopd by Q4.

[suarez99] 17/8/2016 10:28

COURTESY OF IBUG :

Bank of America Merrill Lynch upgraded Tullow Oil to 'buy' from 'neutral' and lifted the price target to 285p from 275p.

BofA noted the shares have materially underperformed the sector.

"Over the past 24 and 36 months, shares have returned -70% and -80% respectively, against the sector at - 60% in both time periods.

"Further, we believe when we overlay the operational progress with our commodity price view, Tullow Oil is one of the most compelling levered E&Ps to gain exposure to an upswing to a recovery in oil prices."

Merrill pointed out that Tullow is on the cusp of a 30% increase in group production, while simultaneously lowering opex and capex 25% and 40%, respectively.

"With the TEN field start-up imminent (18 August), Tullow is in a position to generate 15%+ free cash flow yields as group production grows 30% year-on-year."

In addition, BofA said that while Tullow's net debt position has been a perennial overhang for the company, with an organic pay-down focus, it will now be in a much stronger position in negotiating its reserves-based loan facility at year-end 2016.

"Indeed, we think Tullow is about to enter the most rapid deleveraging of any company in our coverage, moving from YE16 net debt: EBITDA of 5.9x to 3.9 x by year-end 2017."

Furthermore, it said that now that management has successfully raised $300m via a convertible issue in July, it is under significantly less pressure to sell upstream assets pro-cyclically, which is a positive step.

[ibug] 17/8/2016 08:36

Just read that the government of Ghana have a 15% interest in the TEN project have been carried for costs but they will have to start paying their share of carried costs when production starts. Which is from tomorrow; therefore Tullow should get repaid from tomorrow.

[hazl] 17/8/2016 08:19

There will be reasons for up days and down days for oil and gold but its better than buying at the height of a cycle,that's the way I'm looking at it any way.

IMO

[hazl] 16/8/2016 19:47

Thank you ibug.......any predictions for TLW?
At its height it was very impressive..........I can wait!