Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[jovi1] 10/6/2016 14:32

what the odds for a blue day today?

[leoneobull] 10/6/2016 11:43

Since the turn of the year, shares in Tullow Oil(LSE: TLW) have risen by a whopping 50%. Clearly, that's at least partly because of the rising oil price, with it having almost doubled from its 2016 low. This has caused improved investor sentiment towards the wider oil and gas sector, with it reducing uncertainty regarding the financial outlook for Tullow Oil and its peers.
On this front, Tullow Oil is forecast to return to profitability in the current year. Clearly, the higher oil price has a lot to do with that and should mean that asset impairments are somewhat reduced in the short-to-medium term. However, Tullow Oil is also set to increase production at a rapid rate with its Project TEN in Ghana expected to come on-stream in the coming months.
This increased production is due to increase Tullow Oil's pre-tax profit from £36m in the current financial year to as much as £198m in the next financial year. Such a rapid rise in profit growth could cause investor sentiment to improve significantly, thereby pushing Tullow Oil's share price considerably higher. And with the company's shares trading on a price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio of only 0.1, there seems to be major scope for an upward rerating alongside rapid profit growth.

[mcsean2164] 10/6/2016 11:08

The don't seem to be able to say no.

Let's hope TEN comes online soon and the turret is fixed.

[billy_buffin] 10/6/2016 10:12

Government has signed and awarded a Petroleum Exploration Licence in Northern Province to Tullow Oil.

And Tullow Oil vice president exploration Ian Cloke says his firm will invest 69 million United States dollars over a period of time for exploration.

Mines minister Christopher Yaluma says Petroleum Exploration Licence number 028 for block 31 (Edit far North) is among other blocks with high potential for oil and gas in Northern Province.

[paulbiya] 10/6/2016 08:16

I miss NYBOY http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Oil-Futures-Market-Tells-Us-The-Glut-Is-Over.html

[jovi1] 09/6/2016 19:50

cricklewood
oh I was thinking your average was at 3
well in any case it is a lot closer that it was last we spoke

[robo175] 09/6/2016 15:32

Total working GAS in storage forecast 77 Billion actual 65 Billion

[spacedust] 09/6/2016 09:35

Took some profits coupe of days ago. Put it in EDR

[p_dharmendra] 08/6/2016 17:59

Yes bigdazzler Always at 11:20 and 14:20 Tullow price goes down Why I don't know!!!

[bigdazzler] 08/6/2016 16:07

Normally time of day when someone pulls tullows price down ???

[cricklewood] 08/6/2016 14:46

jovi1
8 Jun'16 - 11:06 - 27098 of 27099 0 0


hi Cricklewood
good job you did not sell in February you must be almost there on target by now

good luck


I need £4 to break even.

[brucie5] 08/6/2016 13:15

What price oil does this become profitable? (AISC)

[jovi1] 08/6/2016 11:06

hi Cricklewood
good job you did not sell in February you must be almost there on target by now

good luck

[cricklewood] 08/6/2016 06:14

Another nice bounce today, poo is nicely up.

[mcsean2164] 07/6/2016 23:47

nice bounce today!

[qs99] 05/6/2016 07:15

And your point on TLW thread is? v. v. small miniscule minority getting front page is ridiculous....

[yeah man] 03/6/2016 08:13

doubling UP ?

[nicebut] 03/6/2016 07:26

4m trade there.... Someone doubling down?

[yeah man] 03/6/2016 07:19

The only way is up for crude claims Opec as it declares the worst is finally over following decision not to cap output

Saudi energy minister Khalid Al-Falih said ‘the worst is clearly behind us’, while Iraq’s deputy oil minister Fayadh al-Nema predicted prices could reach as much as $65 in the coming months.


Read more:

[investordave] 02/6/2016 17:12

How very clever of you; and your motive for posting along these lines is what? Congratulations for making it to my ignore list. Needless to say, I won't miss your inane, biased ramblings.

[wexboy] 02/6/2016 16:41

2016 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part II):

Company: Tullow Oil (TLW:LN)

Last TGISVP Post: Here

Market Cap: GBP 2,173 M

Price: GBP 238.2p

Tullow’s probably one of my biggest & most ambitious TGISVP calls to date. Back in 2012, at 1,543p per share (close to its peak), I predicted a near-80% decline with a fair value of 339p. Just imagine the howls of outrage from TLW shareholders at the time…of course, the irony today is that I was being overly-generous! But this wasn’t some prescient bet on an oil price collapse – despite being one of the few resource stocks deserving of a P/S & P/E multiple at the time, I couldn’t ignore the mathematical logic of the long-term discounted value of its proved-up assets in-the-ground vs. its net debt burden (which was actually much lighter then). But as happens so often with over-valued stocks, price & valuation don’t necessarily converge – negative trigger(s) may be required. In the end, the oil price collapse was the obvious trigger here, but production issues with the Jubilee Field & a Ugandan tax battle were also reminders of the operating, financial & political risks facing an increasingly African-focused company.

TLW management’s done its best to respond to collapsing revenue & earnings – by re-focusing capex on W Africa, slashing costs & head-count, eliminating a major portion of the exploration budget, and getting rid of the dividend. And fortunately, debt service is technically not an issue – the company’s continued to generate a healthy $1.4 billion pa of operating cash (on average in the last two years) vs. an average $0.2 billion pa in finance costs paid. The real problem (& perhaps opportunity?!) is actually the TEN Field – perhaps fearing a worse alternative, Tullow & its lenders opted for an all or nothing bet on TEN’s development. Which means TLW’s actually averaged $(1.0) billion FCF pa & net debt’s doubled to $4.5 billion (as of end-April) in the last couple of years, with nothing tangible to show for it yet…production & reserves are down in the last five years, production costs are up, and everything’s now pinned on timely (so far, so good) & successful TEN production.

An asset-based valuation is the only one that makes sense here now. My standard in-the-ground valuation of a barrel of oil equivalent (based on market and M&A multiples) was $10 per proved boe, with a 50% discount for probable boe, and occasionally I’ll include contingent resources at a 75% discount. Obviously, such a valuation must necessarily discount long-term price, geological, operating, political, tax, etc. risks over a life of years & even decades. As a rule of thumb, it tends to approximate 10% of the average spot price. Post-oil price collapse, this 10% rule doesn’t make sense…I think it’s prudent to adopt an $8 per proved boe valuation & to discount in similar fashion. Tullow now has 322 million boe of proved & probable reserves (see p. 170), which we’ll value at $6 per boe (assuming a 50:50 split). It also makes sense to include its 975 million boe of contingent resources at $2 per boe. Of course, we must adjust for the company’s latest net debt figure, and it’s only fair to include net derivatives of $0.6 billion (representing profitable oil hedges):

(322 M boe Proved & Probable * $8 * 75% + 975 M boe Contingent * $8 * 25% – USD 4.5 B Net Debt + 0.6 B Net Derivatives) / 1.4623 GBP/USD / 912 M Shares = GBP 0.2p

Yeah…

You read it right: I reckon Tullow’s essentially worthless at this point. Now, let the foaming of the mouths re-commence… If it’s any consolation, this absurdly precise price target is purely academic. Because, as with most (potentially) distressed companies, there’s a completely binary outcome to handicap here. Clearly, the profit (& more importantly, the cash flow) on a TEN boe that’s actually produced & sold this year should be worth far more than my discounted in-the-ground/under-the-seabed valuation. So maybe TEN starts up on time without a hitch, maybe production hits 100 K bopd net next year, maybe the oil price doubles, maybe Tullow can slowly dig itself out of this hole… But who knows, the oil price may take another sub-$30 dive, TEN may suddenly hit a disastrous production (or political) issue, the lenders may finally lose patience and/or force a horrifically dilutive equity raise on Tullow, short-sellers become more aggressive, whatever… Time will tell, but my price target stands right now.

Price Target: GBP 0.2p

Upside/(Downside): (100)%

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For related links/graphs/files, and more TGISVP analyses/price targets: Google the Wexboy investment blog.

[bakedbean57] 02/6/2016 13:54

My hindsight one says get out...