Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[cincinnati_kid] 15/4/2016 13:25

I beg to differ, I suspect that the outcome of Sunday's meeting will be positive for oil prices.

[dlku] 15/4/2016 09:40

My target 183p on monday after nothing goes on on sunday

[opodio] 15/4/2016 08:58

back under 200p i suspect

[khanittag] 15/4/2016 07:08

https://www.yahoo.com/news/dont-expect-oil-price-change-051700099.html

[frazboy] 14/4/2016 14:54

it's a brave man that shorts Tullow - the share price defies logic. it's definitely a case of the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid. which is not to say that I don't think they're overvalued, they are. although they *may* be able to claim back some, or all, of the lost revenue from the insurer (for the turret issue), I've not known many insurance companies just hand over the readies immediately, and without question.

[opodio] 14/4/2016 14:36

JEFFRIES


Tullow Oil (TLW LN): Jubilee Turret Update - The Solution is a Major Project
Rating UNDERPERFORM
Price Target 166.00p
Price 193.40p
Bloomberg LSE: TLW LN

[opodio] 14/4/2016 14:36

180p come to pappa

[opodio] 14/4/2016 14:27

this is overbought heading to 180p

[frazboy] 14/4/2016 10:35

The press release on the 8th April said that production was shut-in due to the turret issue, and was expect to start in 2 weeks, and ramp up. But where is the press release which says it was shut-in, in the first place, and on what date? Anyone know?

[swerves1] 13/4/2016 19:31

Bigdazzler, I totally agree with you. Just wonder how these people in their positions still get paid for writing such rubbish!

[guy_fawkes] 13/4/2016 18:10

Tullow has a comprehensive package of insurances in place, including Hull and Machinery insurance, procured on behalf of the Joint Venture which covers relevant operating and capital costs associated with damage to the FPSO, and Business Interruption insurance which covers consequent loss of production and revenue. Claims under both policies have been notified to our insurers.

[paulbiya] 13/4/2016 17:23

If bank deal tomorrow insider trading.

[paulbiya] 13/4/2016 17:23

I am begging ny boy to turn up on the blvn board so it goes stratospheric

[bigdazzler] 13/4/2016 16:57

swerves1 13 Apr'16 - 13:36 - 26484 of 26487 0 0

Damaging report that from Jeffries!




Yep swerves really damaging. Can we have some more damaging reports that send the share price up over 11% please.

[hearts1] 13/4/2016 16:06

Whatever NY boy goes short on always increases at a faster rate than its peers. Get him on the ENQ bb and it will double within a week.

[panic investor] 13/4/2016 15:17

gents, why is this up so much compared to ENQ etc ?

[swerves1] 13/4/2016 13:36

Damaging report that from Jeffries!

[brambuz80] 13/4/2016 12:39

EMA200 is a massive resistance from a TA point of view...last time it was tested was mid 2014.If the price breaks out from here and oil doesn't collapse we have a catalyst for a good run upward.

[onjohn] 13/4/2016 12:10

Poo. Stagnating.

[dlku] 13/4/2016 10:53

jeffries only target is 166p :(

JEFFRIES


Tullow Oil (TLW LN): Jubilee Turret Update - The Solution is a Major Project
Rating UNDERPERFORM
Price Target 166.00p
Price 193.40p
Bloomberg LSE: TLW LN


Key Takeaway
Speaking at length with Tullow management this morning clarified the timeline to a potential Jubilee Turret solution: 2-3 months to decide on 1 of 3 potential solutions then a further 9-12months to implement (either offshore or including taking the FPSO into dock). In the meantime, the new production off-take set-up will mean lower field rates.


The Jubilee FPSO turret bearing has been confirmed damaged (no longer able to rotate). Long-term remediation options are being evaluated with an initial view the issue “can be resolved”. In the meantime the vessels required to restart production offtake "are in place” (principally a dynamically-positioned shuttle tanker and a storage tanker for liftings) but c.2 weeks more are needed to safely implement production start-up (with additional time to ramp up).


Speaking to the company at length this morning (COO) the timeline for resolution is 2-3 months to decide on 1 of 3 engineering solutions and 9-12 months to implement the chosen one:


Replace the necessary parts of the Turret in-field to allow it to rotate once more. Essentially this would be fabricating and installing a new rotational ball-bearing race above the old one. One has to appreciate the size of these parts to understand the engineering this would require.
Convert the Jubilee FPSO to a “spread moored anchor set up” essentially by-passing the need to rotate around a Turret. Currently, 2 tug boats (and a 3rd on standby) are effectively doing this job - holding the FPSO on a fixed heading - because with the turret unable to rotate, any rotational movement of the FPSO (due to sea current/wind etc) places huge stresses on the Turret anchor chains. (we are available to explain in more detail).
Bring the FPSO into dock and replace the entire Turret. In our view, the apparent scale of the engineering involved would make this solution the most realistic (and safest) long term option.

These are all major projects in themselves but as ever with hardware issues we are confident the engineers will resolve the problem and crucially, it is not a reservoir problem. However, regardless of insurance recovery possibilities the Turret situation does impact asset value. For example, we find it hard to imagine the Jubilee Full Field Development plan will be sanctioned until the production facility (FPSO) is fully resolved. Ironically, we had already seen that sanction at risk of further delay simply due to TLW drive to reduce overall group capex.


Production guidance will be reissued once the new off-take procedures are confirmed as working (101kb/d Jubilee gross prior to shut-in TLW 35%, KOS US 24%, APC US 24%). With on-going RBL debt re-redetermination process (end April for news) and ND/EBITDAX reaching 6.5x by 1H16 on our numbers (before the turret issue), we see further risk to the shares despite the insurance claims already field. We recently Downgraded TLW to Underperform specifically due to news of this Turret issue adding to operational issues at Jubilee since First Oil at end-2010. Our Core NAV for TLW (mostly all Ghana value) is 115p/sh. To get to our target price of 166p a further 56p of East Africa "upside" is required.

[gersemi] 13/4/2016 10:47

Look at this go!!

[bigdazzler] 13/4/2016 10:45

Said it was time to go tullow!!!