Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[slim 333] 08/2/2016 21:12

Although investors were hoping for a decoupling of the oil price from Tullow’s share price, there still remains a very strong correlation between the two. For some time I have thought the oil market is rigged for political reasons especially as some of the big players like Russia and Saudi don’t have much sympathy for markets. Either the Saudis punishing the US for shale oil or the US punishing Russia for Ukraine and support of Assad might explain the present glut. If economic warfare is behind the current depressed price this might last longer than normal as it takes a long time for oil producers to cut back.

Reading the Peak Oil Barrel website suggests that ‘low oil price regime might well last for the duration of Obama administration unless Russia folds.’
Happily, Obama will be on the way out just when production cuts are really biting. In anticipation of this an oil price recovery is a strong likelihood before the end of 2016. If I’m right, the rebound could be vigorous.

[edmondj] 08/2/2016 20:51

It goes back to his claims in early 2015, the business cycle was overdue a downturn, and this time around indebted companies/stocks will get hit especially hard. Each to their own opinion!

[hearts1] 08/2/2016 20:43

I still don't think his short position is based on TLW fundementals, more on he thinks there will be a market downturn and a new low for Brent.TLW has a high beta and is impacted due to debt levels. At present most of the big boys are split, with half thinking the bottom has already been hit and the rest looking for more downside.Reality is no one knows.

[jovi1] 08/2/2016 16:51

nice if my math is right and my guessing on which share odey are shorting is true they should be able to increase the position to approx. 5.3 to 6.1 or about 10 mill share.
but as they keep shorting some are covering the position and fresh by are coming back to the market. some are the T10 band confident of report.
all in all I am happy with result today given the overall market and a fall on the back of a big jump.
let hope US turn the cornet this evening and we will enjoy tomorrow

[nicebut] 08/2/2016 15:56

MAN DOWN TO .56% from .68%
OXFORD DOWN A BIT TO .66% from .70%

WAIT FOR IT...ODEY INCREASED TO 4.4% from 4.19%

[shaf5] 08/2/2016 13:56

www.rt.com/shows/sophieco/331693-oil-prices-opec-agreement/

[jovi1] 08/2/2016 13:54

my hope for today is that down open down but will rally above 16100 that I would think was the support level and this will at least half the daily loss.
what the odds for oil at 42 by end of march or before?

[jovi1] 08/2/2016 13:03

hi Dave
personally I got some more at 174.1 and that is above my average paid.
oil will be volatile for some time but share are slowly moving away from the daily oil price and in a day where down is expected to open -230 this drop is not that bad, last months in similar situation we where down 17%.
if any good news will come up in production cut it will be in usa time as it is the most effective time.
I feel sorry for genl every time they have good news the oil price tanks and all evaporate quickly,
in any case going back to my buy I have no plan to sell until 2020 at the earliest it is just timing the top up.

good luck

[fsawatcher] 08/2/2016 13:02

would be a good sign if odey begin closing out on the down days rather than adding more shorting leverage

market worried about 'WAR'?

but between which countries? turks and russia? iran and saudia arabia, north korea and south korea

low oil could be last straw tipping point for sanction / budget stretched countries

[mcsean2164] 08/2/2016 12:50

Still in and plan to hold.

Interesting....


Predicted decline of 1.5million bopd in off shore due lower in fills.

[sawadee3] 08/2/2016 12:29

Agreed. It's a flea bite of a shake.

Happy to gather up even more for the pot :-)

[investordave] 08/2/2016 12:29

Have many of you sold out today? Still holding tight but worried that my small profit is evaporating fast.

[spirito] 08/2/2016 11:48

Exactly - not much of a rogering

[hearts1] 08/2/2016 10:49

It's down 5% after a quick 50% rise.

[betelgeuse1] 08/2/2016 10:28

blimey taking a right rogering

[hearts1] 08/2/2016 10:20

Yes but no one knows where the oil price will be in 2 years.

[edmondj] 08/2/2016 10:10

The game is surely where things stand oil price wise, in roughly two years' time.

The imminent results, if not chart, may have little bearing on that.

[jovi1] 08/2/2016 10:07

does not look too good today but I take the approach in in doubt buy some more
lot of contradicting news lately but I see this as a better stage than all bad news.
expectation on the result are so low that would not take much to beat them or so we hope.
good luck

[hearts1] 08/2/2016 08:11

$600m profit, not bad where many are making a loss.

[leoneobull] 08/2/2016 07:18

Well the Dow finished down 230 pts Fri and crude down 2% so up 1% takes us back to where we were Thursday?

[holmess] 08/2/2016 07:02

Ftse futs +30, Brent +1.1% Could well see the share price near 200p today

[mcsean2164] 07/2/2016 22:25

But Nomura warned that meaningful deleveraging will require further cost reduction and asset sales, saying that with net debt at 5-6 times its earnings that debt covenants could come under pressure.

Good that Tullow say, "Active portfolio management is a key part of our strategy."

Bob Janjuah has been predicting catastrophe for a long time now, I long a lot of opportunity listening to him.