Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[holmess] 16/11/2015 19:55

Look at the PoO - quite an intraday recovery/reversal

[holmess] 16/11/2015 17:31

dros1 - UBS seem to get it. I suspect today's positive divergence between the PoO and many oil stocks is a further sign that a bottom is in for the sector. TLW is financially secure and well hedged through 2016 before it turns into a cash generating monster in 2017 onwards.

Azalea - lol - give it up. Being a perma-bear in this sector is going to cost you a lot of upside going forwards. The funds will now start positioning themselves for the recovery phase.

[spirito] 16/11/2015 17:00

That's only 1 months worth of consumption

[azalea] 16/11/2015 16:36

3bn barrels stored in tankers are going to need a hugh increase in demand to start making a dent in that kind of volume.

[badmumba] 16/11/2015 16:21

Too many getting too excited about a small rise here ,caution at the moment ..

[mcsean2164] 16/11/2015 14:15

some serious flip flopping

hxxp://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/OPECs-Strategy-Is-Working-According-To-Cartels-Latest-Report.html

[dros1] 16/11/2015 12:36

Tullow came into the downturn highly geared and with substantial capital expenditure ahead to bring T.E.N [a project in Ghana] to first oil in mid-2016. Strategy switched to survival mode: a hard-hitting $500m cost plan saw headcount cut 40%, exploration spend down 75% to $250m and the dividend suspended. But this did not frame a compelling investment case and a hefty debt pile left the equity vulnerable to ‘lower for longer’ oil price narratives. But mission is accomplished and perceptions of a debt problem misplaced. This is a well- financed company with quality assets and a proven development track-record, offering long-term oil price exposure at the bottom of the cycle, yet well hedged at the front end (around 50% of 2016 estimated production at $75 a barrel).

UBS

[wantmorethan24p] 16/11/2015 10:16

just need the chinese SINOPEC to come to tullows rescue.

[dlku] 16/11/2015 09:59

One senior government source said that, in any case, the Saudis expected the oil price to stabilise and rise thereafter as demand rose to meet supply. The government is predicting a rise in worldwide demand of 1.5m to 1.7m barrels per day this year alone.
He said even on current budgets the authorities could live with a price of $80 per barrel.
“We believe $40 to $50 oil is temporary,” he said. “Everybody now in the market thinks the recovery is coming.

[dlku] 16/11/2015 09:54

ready to bounce

geopolitical risk will cause oil to spike
lots of supply disruptions
putin will strike soon imho

[heliweli] 16/11/2015 09:16

Need to take out 200.

[volsung] 16/11/2015 08:54

I would say 170p by close of play.

[sawadee3] 16/11/2015 08:46

PMO doing the business too :-)

[sawadee3] 16/11/2015 08:44

Spirito, take a look at all the recent surges we've had, that should give you a good clue :-)

Certainly not yet!

[spirito] 16/11/2015 08:39

Bought at 189 on Friday - what should I exit at?

[sawadee3] 16/11/2015 08:31

Why get rich slowly when you can get rich quickly :-)

God bless TLW :-)

[dlku] 16/11/2015 08:15

geopolitical tension will send oil higher and higher

[sawadee3] 16/11/2015 08:10

Reading all the negativity on the boards towards oil, you just knew we were going to have a belting open on Monday :-)

Looking forward to a great week chaps :-)

Up we jolly well go :-)

[mcsean2164] 15/11/2015 14:34

OPEC: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela

Note: Syria is not in OPEC.



Estimates by local traders and engineers put crude production in Isis-held territory at about 34,000-40,000 bpd. The oil is sold at the wellhead for between $20 and $45 a barrel, earning the militants an average of $1.5m a day.

So 'the warring' area is responsible for little or no production. ISIS is over as a force. The have poked the ants nest and will now be wiped out.

So it really comes down to will Saudi/ Venezeula/ Iraq/ etc. decrease production to increase prices. Venezeula is in serious trouble, Saudi is burning through cash reserves. I expect oil to be at least $50 in 2017. So it comes down to, can tullow survive 2016?

This should help:

"The Group's commodity hedge programme has a net positive mark
to market value of approximately $450 million;
36,011 bopd of 2016 Group oil net entitlement volumes hedged
with an average floor price protection of around $75.5/bbl "

This is the problem:

-- RBL debt capacity remains unchanged at $3.7 billion following
the routine bi-annual redetermination in September; 2015 year-end
facility headroom and free cash expected to be around $1.7 billion
and net debt around $4.2 billion

NY Boy, do you really think Tulow will fail to get through 2016?

[holmess] 15/11/2015 13:26

Russia have already begun to destabilise the mid-east, Putin simply cannot afford to see oil continue at these levels.

I'll just keep accumulating cheap oil stocks, now 110% return on capital since August in TLW alone! - Happy to supply more data to Azalea - he never replied to my last ones ;)

You just have to learn how to play the game. I remember similar rubbish being posted about BARC when I was buying in the 50p region during the financial crisis. Same old, same old. TLW will be doing fine in a few years when PoO is $100+ and in 20 years when it's $500+