Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[cricklewood] 08/10/2015 19:20

Where u get that figure from , currently $53

[holmess] 08/10/2015 19:05

PoO moving up nicely - WTI $49.40 currently..........

[phowdo] 08/10/2015 08:19

250p proving resistance as a couple of us speculated yesterday.
PoO will probably need to rally to get TLW through there.

[cricklewood] 08/10/2015 08:06

£4 easy by xmas.


I wish.

[holmess] 08/10/2015 07:20

Liking the Gabon update.

[bobsidian] 08/10/2015 01:34

Interesting point. The strictures of Reserves Based Lending. Those companies with such lending in place will benefit over those seeking to agree such funding were there to be any sustained oil price recovery.

You would have thought that the inventory build in the US would have caused the price of oil to tumble more aggressively. That it only fell by around $1.50 a barrel is interesting. The accompanying report suggested that demand and supply was moving into balance more quickly than previously considered possible. Add to that the more concrete newsflow of a possible accord between OPEC and non-OPEC countries in advance of Iranian supply coming to market and you have the potential for short sellers to be frustrated by movements in the price of oil.

The Oil & Gas Producers Index (NMX0530) makes for interesting viewing. A classic example of major sector rotation underway. What is most interesting is just how little the main indices moved on this sector rotation suggestive of how underweight the sector have been funds and fund managers. Having reversed almost all of the downward move since mid-August, the index has rocketed through its 50 day Simple Moving Average and is showing signs of encountering resistance at the 100 day Simple Moving Average. It will be interesting to see if there is enough power in the current sector rotation to see the index move to test the 200 day Simple Moving Average - some 6% above its current level. Were it to so do, the rotation would have blasted through resistance levels developed during July/August and no doubt triggered further short covering in the process. The 200 day Simple Moving Average would be a recognisable "line in the sand" by short sellers at which point the index as a whole would be technically overbought and vulnerable to a significant correction to the downside.

From a technical perspective TLW is lagging the Oil & Gas Producers Index. Though the index has already hit its 100 day Simple Moving Average the share price of TLW would need to hit around £2.74 to meet its own similar Moving Average. And if the index does indeed sail up to its 200 day Simple Moving Average the share price of TLW would need to rise to around £3.25. Interesting day(s) ahead.

One thing for certain is that it can be unwise to underestimate the sheer power of a sector rotation - signalling as it does a shift in sentiment. Take a look at the mining index. Whereas the Oil & Gas Producers Index has risen around 17% over the course of the last 7 trading sessions, the mining index has risen by 25%+ over the same period. And all that index has done is recover to meet its 50 day Simple Moving Average.

In a broader context the performance of the S&P500 makes for interesting viewing. The very recent moves in the oil and mining sectors seem to have helped create the right shoulder of a possible head and shoulders pattern underneath key moving averages. And with US earnings season about to commence there are some commentators urging caution suggesting that the next move in the S&P500 may be sharply to the downside. If this is indeed to be the case then the question may be whether or not fund managers now see the oil and mining sectors as a safer place to move into from the overvalued sectors in which they have been hiding for the last 18 months by using any resultant sector weakness as a point of entry.

[jovi1] 07/10/2015 23:14

Hi cricklewook
I generally agree with you but this time I don't. Production will come down the only way will remain at this level is if we have an increase demand.
May reasons for this are:
Slowly the decision to invest and increase production will be made by financial and not oil company at current price not many loan will be paid ever again. So my thinking is that company and financial will try to save assets as those are the warranty against the loan there is no advantage to keep pumping and not even break even. The people that eventually will be squized the most are the exploration only company as no many will have backing to get the oil out of the ground.
The reason for the reduction in rigs is not a direct choice of the producer but is the lack of founding available that will stop this process.
Even if we look at TLW almost all capex is used to put on line the actual discovered.
Even the Saudi had a massive reduction in investment and they too will need the price to improve before more investment can be made.
ultimatelly many of the smaller and medium size company will have to sell asset and bigger one will hold them undevelp just for increase the reserve
I suspect the fraking production will fall of the cliff as well production generally is not longer than few years.
I would be very surprise if the USA can keep producing at this level for much longer and all this without considering the reduction on edging cost and quantity available and the interest rate increase.
I can see oil 10 dollar more in next few months but this don't really bother me as I am in for a long run
I had and still have share in Tlw at the 73p times clearly a sold the maggiority on the way up and I am buying most of them back in the last few months waiting for next cycle whatever started already or next few year
Good luck all

[mccracken227] 07/10/2015 18:27

Holmesy, have held these 15 yrs so have seen the good times and the bad, still in profit but this share will really frustrate you, having sold a tranche at £15 they owe me nothing. I don't expect them to go up in a straight line, But they never rise as much as others but always fall further.

[jovi1] 07/10/2015 17:36

what is a fortree shake?

[holmess] 07/10/2015 17:21

LOl @mccracken & diku - up over 50% in a week and you complain ;)

Nothing goes up in a str8 line......

[dlku] 07/10/2015 15:45

just a feeling this will open down 15p tomorrow

[dlku] 07/10/2015 15:42

falking like a brick

[mccracken227] 07/10/2015 15:41

Giving it all back, typical Tullow!!

[onjohn] 07/10/2015 14:14

get ready fortree shake here

[jovi1] 07/10/2015 13:07

You very right cricklewook feeling great today
Maybe should go drunk before trade again
Got my average down on few last week and cannot stop smiling now
Tlw AV 172
Genel 287
Iae 30.25
Amer 24.5
Ophir 80
Is not a bad world

[gregpeck7] 07/10/2015 13:01

Russia started naval bombardments of Syria.. Breaking news, watch the OP go...

[tidy 2] 07/10/2015 13:01

Fancy this £12.5m cash in bank increasing dailyPoo flyingDebt free4100-5000 bopd Need confidence.....Current cap £28m &Chevron is the main operator SQZ ;)

[tidy 2] 07/10/2015 13:00

By Ese ErherieneLONDON--Oil prices hit multiweek highs in London trading Wednesday, after data out of U.S. indicated an improving supply and demand picture, boosting investor appetite for the commodity after a prolonged slump in prices.Brent crude for November delivery, was trading at $52.80 a barrel, up 1.7%, on London's ICE Futures exchange at 1012 GMT. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in November rose 1.7% to $49.33 a barrel, hovering just underneath $50 a barrel and a five week high.That followed gains on Tuesday, when Brent, the global oil benchmark, pushed above $50 a barrel to a four-week high."Since August, with very few exceptions...the price stood under $50, so it is very significant," said Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank. "Some investors, who are waiting at the moment on the sidelines, might pour their money back into oil and commodities markets."The improvement in sentiment came after the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, reported on Tuesday that U.S. crude-oil inventories are likely to have shrunk by 1.2 million barrels in the latest week. Crude also got a boost after the Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday that it had lowered its U.S. oil-production forecasts for 2015 and 2016, while raising its global demand forecasts for the same period.Oils gains also reflected greater risk appetite among some investors and views that the escalation in Syria's civil war could disrupt markets, analysts said.Others were more cautious, saying that the underlying picture of oversupply hasn't changed. There is no sign, for instance, of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting before December and agreeing to restrict their oil production, said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade, in a note."We are skeptical about this upward move in crude oil," he said.Later on Wednesday, market participants will be watching for the official U.S. crude inventory data from the Energy Department ad seeing whether that confirms the API figure. Further forward, OPEC will release its monthly report on Monday, and on Tuesday the International Energy Agency also publishes its monthly report."We must rethink and reweigh the factors which we think are the most important ones," said Mr. Weinberg. "At the moment, it isn't the demand in China, it isn't geopolitical tensions, it isn't the coming Iranian exports. It is very much about the U.S. oil production.

[onjohn] 07/10/2015 11:36

if it falls from here i might havce a few back but i want 200p tbh

[holmess] 07/10/2015 11:02

GS - what a surprise - they're still short on oil......

[onjohn] 07/10/2015 10:28

What is cnbc on!! lol


Goldman Sachs stirred energy investors last month when its head of commodity research warned of rising risks of oil prices falling as low as $20 per barrel, in a message that was reiterated on Tuesday.

[onjohn] 07/10/2015 10:19

sold a few at 257

[gregpeck7] 07/10/2015 10:18

Takeover, short coverings, cheap on a nav basis etc etc.. 300p coming

[doohoma3] 07/10/2015 10:01

anyone sniffing a takeover here