Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[gregpeck7] 27/8/2015 11:37

Not finished? Its not even started! :D

[sawadee3] 27/8/2015 11:21

Bull run not finished, I suggest holding your oil shares very tightly chaps :-)

[holmess] 27/8/2015 10:31

Yet another assumption on oil prices! Lets see what OPEC decided in the coming weeks........

[cricklewood] 27/8/2015 09:33

Wade in, the price has to recover no ifs or buts about it.

[phowdo] 27/8/2015 09:14

WTI back up through $40.

[holmess] 27/8/2015 08:41

Bear SQUEEZE......

[holmess] 27/8/2015 08:11

Indeed Cricklewood - Looks like the simplistic analysis of a 5 year old ;)

[cricklewood] 27/8/2015 07:21

Load of old tosh LOL

[buywell3] 26/8/2015 17:57

Posts on here tend to be boring one liners

If you ain't got anything worth saying why bother ?

This is the sort of thing you should be knocking out .... Big Picture thinking

Cos what is happening now is going to be what is coming down the line in 2016



................ China and the 2015/2016 Currency World War ..............

Yes well spotted OVER 50% of their debt is property related

A capitalist type bubble waiting to go pop

Setting up a stock exchange based upon western standard as the Chinese Government has ... they are now probably regretting or will be soon.

The recent highs have been on the back of PI's in China borrowing from Shadow banks and other high interest lenders.

There will be a lot of poor former PI's that bought shares thinking they were a one way bet.

Which will be a major headache for the Government of China , (currently is one)

Their various actions over the last few weeks shows they are in crisis , and are trying a variety of quick fix solutions.

A currency war, full blown type , will hurt the USA and the EU more than it will hurt China

I still expect them to devalue by another 5% before Nov 5th .

Another 10% drop then in Global share markets

But by xmas the weaker Yuan should start to help exports albeit only by a few points to get the manufacturing index up to nearly 50.

I expect China to devalue further by another 10% next year in two tranches , the 1st in Jan or Feb 2016 .

Another 10% fall and the DJIA is now sitting at 14,000 .... end Jan early Feb

Chartwise this is a perfect fit if the DJIA goes sideways at around 16,000 ( which I called on another thread a couple of weeks back)

The USA will then be very accommodating towards China ... as the dollar will then be going higher and their export markets and the EU export markets suffering.

In other words Global recession by Feb 2016 will be the case.

China will also probably do another 0.25% interest rate cut before xmas this year just to put the boot in and make uncle sam say ''uncle''

All the USA and EU will have left is more QE to drop the value of their currencies ... as 0% is a white flag and means the currency war has been lost.

Expect to see China adding more GOLD to its reserves at these lower prices every couple of months for the next year and a bit ... though they will try to keep it mum.

GOLD to $2,000 plus within 3 years looks on as a result of the wall of paper coming our way.

OIL ... not looking good for 2016 as Global recession is conceded by the powers that be.

Time to consider Safe Haven Sector stocks and has been for the last 12 months and more if you paid attention to the BIG picture and stopped reading ramping tripe

[azalea] 26/8/2015 17:49

Very interesting article on the future direction for oil prices.

hxxp://citywire.co.uk/money/article/a834078

[edmondj] 26/8/2015 11:11

Yes it's largely macro.

Dilemma that it will take a few months yet to see what is the genuine underlying trend in China, than weekly scare statistics, this being the key factor on the demand side - versus producers' disarray.

[ny boy] 26/8/2015 10:45

Just too many dead cat bounces all over the market place, this would only be a buy if 280p can be help and well supported again, otherwise, could easily drift or tank lower.

Most are busy laying staff off, shutting down rigs etc.

Collateral damage has been done, it will take a while to recover,6-18 months, first the price of oil needs to bottom and as of yet there is no sign of that happening.

[edmondj] 26/8/2015 08:31

Naa, not a knife worthy of Tullow.

Now that's a Tullow knife:

[phowdo] 26/8/2015 08:24

Tullow knife catcher...

[p@] 26/8/2015 08:06

Catch a falling knife?

[jovi1] 26/8/2015 00:35

Let me starting saying that I have share in this company as in the past have been good to me.
I think one of the issue that as all oil company buying at this price seems a bargain as most of us expect for oil to go up again in the future hopefully the near one. But is true as well that there is little special on tlw that we don't see in many oil company.
On the assumption that oil will go up again one day is better have share in tlw with large debit but with large resource and low production cost or some of the smaller one with maybe little higher ops cost but no debit and maybe some spare cash?
Clearly both camps are down but it seems to me that at the time tlw broke the 280 mark the shift was to hold the company that were debit free that increase the fall of tlw among other.
In the last 3 days many of the debit free company have regress more that in debited company so at the level we are now the market see tlw and few with lower ops cost in a better position to survive this crisis that the debit free with higher cost or larger commitment.
I suspect the oil as not yet find the bottom but share in General have or are really close to it, as we know from past experiences that share bottom before oil prices.
Banks will start to support share prices soon as if this industry goes down they go down too with over a trillion borrowed from oil company with no hope to pay in the near future if at all.
Good luck to all

[sawadee3] 25/8/2015 10:51

Couldn't agree more holmess.

I have more money invested in Oilies now than I'd planned to have, thanks to the doom n gloomers :-)

All well in profit today :-)

[gregpeck7] 25/8/2015 08:56

+1, i think this is a valid point, dont always follow the crowd.

[holmess] 25/8/2015 08:48

Added a few more this morning. A BB full of bears makes this a screaming buy, the same crowd who were scream buy when it was £15 ;)

[cricklewood] 25/8/2015 08:46

Then again ?