Tullett Prebon Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 13/7/2015 08:09

Money flows will start to rise again over the coming weeks as Greece reaches important step in negotiations with the Eurocrats and Grexit fears subside.

Volatility is good for Tulletts.

Volatility within stability is even better.

Expectant of 400p ++ in line with the recent recommendation of Numis.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 10/7/2015 17:50

do not kindly borrow my posts in future for this thread.

I will go back to my posh thread.

Clearly it is not talking to myself - otherwise how could you ( amongst many many others ) possibly have seen it?

There are some unpleasant types on this bb and that is why I dislike it and moved elsewhere.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[darias] 10/7/2015 17:06

I didn't say there was a downturn yet QP.

I consider that I may or may not know what I am talking about but I do know how to read.

Please read my comments again or go back to your "posh" thread and talk to yourself.

[quepassa] 10/7/2015 09:57

No downturn. You don't know what you are talking about.

Sentiment changed because of the improving performance, increasing profitability, arrival of new CEO, BGC litigation win, higher volatility and better market conditions.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP.

[darias] 10/7/2015 09:29

From Que Pasa's "posh thread"

10 Jul'15 - 08:22 - 83 of 83 0 0

On 7th. July Barclays issued a Broker Note and REITERATE their EQUAL WEIGHT recommendation on Tulletts with a slight increase in TARGET PRICE to 365p.


With the enormous recent market volatility, I continue to think that trading will be very buoyant this year for Tulletts.

However, Numis at a TARGET PRICE of 420p seems more likely to me.


But what is quite clear is that BROKER SENTIMENT has turned from NEUTRAL/SELL last year/early this year to POSITIVE/BUY since Q1 2015.

This all bodes well for the share price prospects for Tulletts.

What que Pasa does not seem to understand is that Brokers usually follow the herd rather than lead it. So that is why "Broker Sentiment" changed from "Neutral/sell" to "Positive/Buy" now. Brokers missed the upturn and will also miss the downturn.

As Que Pasa says, and take heed. DYOR

[quepassa] 10/7/2015 08:22

On 7th. July Barclays issued a Broker Note and REITERATE their EQUAL WEIGHT recommendation on Tulletts with a slight increase in TARGET PRICE to 365p.


With the enormous recent market volatility, I continue to think that trading will be very buoyant this year for Tulletts.

However, Numis at a TARGET PRICE of 420p seems more likely to me.


But what is quite clear is that BROKER SENTIMENT has turned from NEUTRAL/SELL last year/early this year to POSITIVE/BUY since Q1 2015.

This all bodes well for the share price prospects for Tulletts.

ALL IMO> DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 07/7/2015 11:36

The Greeks have a long reputation for heavily over borrowing. The Hellenic finances have been teetering on the brink of disaster for decades.

Is it surprising that we have inevitably arrived at this final monetary end-game and crisis?

At least Tsipras is being honest that they really cannot afford to repay the debt unlike previous governments who let the charade and financial tea-party continue. The EEC and IMF were the top guests at that tea-party in my opinion.

If you ask me, it has been only too obvious for many years what a precarious situation they were in.

But THE ECB and IMF are very complicit in my opinion in the Greek crisis. I think it was highly irresponsible lending by them. Why did they ever agree to lend the Greeks so much when it was known that the Greek tax collection system was shakey and that the Hellenic economy not strong and fundamentally unable to support such a humungous debt pile?

Turning a blind eye to debt is not a defensible excusefor fundamentally irresponsible lending in my opinion.

At the same time, the Greeks can't really expect the debt to be forgiven in entirety.

My recommendations are :-

1. Attenuated Austerity packages.

2. ALL IMF and ECB and other Supranational loans to remain outstanding and continue to be full obligations of Greece but to be rescheduled along the following lines:-

- MATURITY to be converted to PERPETUAL DEBT
-INTEREST to be reduced to 0.001% pa
- REPAYMENT - PERPETUAL DEBT but good faith talks every 5 years to attempt to countenance some nominal repayment in the event of an improving economy.


If Greece want to stay in, it seems to me incumbent on Merkel, the ECB, IMF, the EEC and Brussels to do all in their power to keep Greece in.

A face-saving exercise is needed. Perpetual maturity and a reduction in interest to a nominal figure would accommodate many requirements.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 29/6/2015 12:39

Volatility, volatility, volatility.

Isn't that what the brokers thrive on?

Aren't these favourable times for hedging instruments and financial flows which benefit the brokers?

All said and done, Greece is less than 2% of the GDP of the EEC but more than 92% of its current headache. Headaches are normally temporary and it's nice to get rid of a head-ache.

Talk of Greek contagion. But contagion to whom? Is this a Lehman moment? There was a clear link and understandable knock-on effect to the other US investment banks when Lehman collapsed with their funding lines collectively being pulled. They were all central to the global financial system of liquidity, markets and bank funding. In my view, Greece isn't.

It's not as if global markets or the IMF or ECB will have liquidity issues if/when Greece defaults given their supranational status.

Greek default is unlikely to cause a market-wide global liquidity crisis in my view. Nor, in my view is there a systemic crisis for the Euro if Greece defaults.

And who actually would Greece contaminate if it defaults on the IMF loan and/or pulls out of the Euro and starts printing drachma? I haven't heard any evidence so far that lines are being cut to Spain and Portugal.

Time will tell. But I am scratching my head just to figure out who, if anyone, is truly in the same boat as Greece.

We used to talk collectively of the PIGS countries. If you take the G out of pigs, you are left with the PIS countries and they seem to be doing a pretty damn good job at holding it in my view.

Dented pride, tough times ahead for the long-suffering Greeks, some likely further containable losses on Greek debt for some banks/funds/institutions.

But hardly global financial meltdown and monetary Armageddon in my opinion.




ALL IMO DYOR.

QP

[asmodeus] 16/6/2015 08:10

That sounds a bit fishy, to me.

[quepassa] 16/6/2015 08:01

Generally a down day in the markets yesterday and according to The FT today, Tulletts faded 8% after HSBC advised to take profits after Tulletts' rapid 60% rise since December.

Taking profits and crystallising gains is a great strategy. You can't go wrong with that. Cash in the bank is always good.

But have HSBC got their call right? In the short term for quick profits, as already mentioned any recent investor would have done well.

A little profit-taking after a meteoric rise. No share goes up in a straight line. Some profit-taking is only to be expected.

In the longer-term, my view is that yesterday's slip will be insignificant. A blip along the way as the sctor continues to show great strength amidst increasing volatility, the key to Broker profitability.

In my opinion, nothing has fundamentally changed whatsoever with The Tulletts proposition. Indeed, the new CEO is only just getting into his stride.

Yesterday's slide has perhaps thrown up a very juicy buying opportunity and Tulletts can now be bought on a historic yield of 4.5%. It would not surprise if yield-hunters quickly take up the likely short-lived slack created by shorter horizon profit-takers.

HSBC may have helped their clients to catch a sprat but they have perhaps missed the chance to catch the bigger fish.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[slopsjon2] 16/6/2015 07:55

Broker moved from Buy to Hold.

[edwardt] 15/6/2015 16:25

x/d today or why the drop?

[quepassa] 10/6/2015 11:32

Important article on Page 30 of to-day's FT describes the major volatility in the currency markets at the moment which very much looks set to continue for some considerable time.

The FT article is headed: " VOLATILITY WREAKS HAVOC ON STRATEGISTS' FORECASTS" and further into the article talks for example of

-the Eurodollar roller-coaster ride last Thursday,
- a year of extreme currency swings,
- that the past few weeks have been particularly challenging,
- the intrinsic nervousness amongst traders and
-that fear is driving the market.


The full article makes valuable reading.

All this market volatility can only be one thing for Tulletts in my opinion.

-And that is, VERY GOOD INDEED!

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 04/6/2015 06:10

Mario Draghi tells the markets to be prepared for higher market volatility.

He pronounces that the markets need to "get used" to volatility. Especially debt markets.

Bond yields are now all over the place.

Draghi has got a good reputation , credibility and if he says there's going to be volatility, he's probably right.


Volatility is what stimulates financial instrument volumes.

Seems like it will be an increasingly positive backdrop for Tulletts' business.

This is extremely good, supportive and positive for volumes, throughput, and in turn, for the prospects for Tulletts.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 29/5/2015 11:56

The stock has now convincingly breached 400p.

A rapid rise of some 60% since the December 250p lows.

A warm market welcome for the new CEO and management's patience and cost-cutting being well rewarded by the market.

A re-rating of the stock has and continues to take place. Market sentiment towards Tullets vastly improved.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 21/5/2015 17:58

Strong finish and momentum for Tulletts today. Up 1.5% to 384p.

If you factor in and add back the recently paid 11.25p dividend, we are as near as dammit at 400p and at a 3 year high.

Personally, I see this going significantly higher based on increasing volatility, the cost-cutting of last year feeding through to the bottom-line this year and good volumes from their oil-trading desks in North America.

Looks set to continue its upwards trajectory.

The current yield of 4.2% based on a very strong and reliable history of paying dividends remains highly attractive. Especially for a stock with real growth potential.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 14/5/2015 08:50

Today is Pay Day for Tullett's juicy final divi of 11.25pence.

QP

[quepassa] 08/5/2015 08:18

On the back of the Conservatives' very convincing victory and the subsequent stimulating yet reassuring impact on UK financial markets, I now expect Tulletts to trade through 400p rapidly.


ALL IMO> DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 06/5/2015 13:59

Numis issue a Broker Update today.

They REITERATE their ADD recommendation and significantly INCREASE their PRICE TARGET (from 360p in March) to 420p.

This indicates that NUMIS see some 20% UPSIDE to today's share price of c. 360p.

It would not surprise me if other brokers follow suit.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 06/5/2015 09:01

VERY, VERY strong Trading Update from Tulletts today in my opinion:


- HIGHER VOLATILITY in certain markets this year compared to 2014

- ASTONISHING - Revenue for 4 months to end April 2015 is a whopping 15% than last year.

- Performance of recent acquisition PVM Oil Associates is ahead of expectations

- Improved margins due to cost-cutting in 2014

- £64.4million now received from BGC litigation win.

- Company banking facility of £150m refinanced with new 3year deal on same terms as before

- Company financial position remains strong.



Robust and encouraging. Cost-cutting measures feeding through. Volumes increasing. Volatility higher then 2014

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 21/4/2015 15:20

Looking strong again.

Goes x-d in two days on 23rd April for 11.25p.

Pays 14th. May.


ALL IMO> DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 24/3/2015 08:26

Fascinating article in The FT today (p.19) with the title " China Brokers look to bolster clout" which talks about China's brokers, asset managers and insurance companies being "flush with cash" and on the hunt for international acquisitions.

The article mentions that China is now turning its attention towards overseas financial companies with a view to laying an international footprint to aid international flows of domestic Chinese capital.

The Ft references Everbright Securities which recently bought a controlling $500m stake in broker, Sun Hung Kai Financial and a deal in December by Haitong Securities to buy Banco Espirito Santo de Investimento of Portugal for c E500m.

The article concludes by saying that more acquisitions are expected in Europe after shares of China brokers and insurers have soared in value over the last year with billions being raised in share placements as a consequence.

Certainly an influx of Chinese acquisition capital focused on the European broking and financial arena will only serve to bolster market sentiment.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 23/3/2015 09:01

Looking set fair in my view to hit 400p in short order and higher after that.

The never-ending parade of fund managers in the financial media all say the same thing. The only place to get any yield is on equities.

As a yield-play, Tullets is a great candidate, against a vastly improved sector backdrop for the brokers.

Moreover , all the bad sentiment which has dogged the brokers for a long time with libor/fx/rate-fixing scandals has thankfully all but dissipated. Sentiment is turning fast from negative to positive.

There are in my view many supportive factors in evidence for a strengthening share price for Tullets.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[darias] 23/3/2015 08:47

Seems there is increased resistance towards £4. Get through that and who knows!

[quepassa] 19/3/2015 08:34

All the economic news and

1.strengthening $,
2.weakening Euro,
3.ECB QE
4.Rotation into equities
5.Microscopic Govie bond yields
6.Yellen's musings on patience/impatience about $int. rate increases
7.Oil weakness
8.Currency volatility

make for a strong back-drop for massive capital flows.

I cannot believe that the brokers won't soon start profiting very handsomely from all this which is putting a rocket under global financial activity and volumes.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP