Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Trinity LSE:TRIN London Ordinary Share GB00B8JG4R91 ORD USD0.01
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.75p +5.88% 13.50p 13.25p 13.75p 14.00p 13.25p 13.50p 957,586 16:35:12
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 32.7 -21.0 -42.1 - 38.12

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Date Time Title Posts
28/4/201715:36Trinity Exploration & Production PLC1,817.00
14/2/201713:30Trinity with volume charts1.00
07/2/201708:31TRINITY EXPLORATION and PRODUCTION LTD3,403.00
21/4/200420:59TRIN: Trading Index, Charts & Comments21.00

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DateSubject
30/4/2017
09:20
Trinity Daily Update: Trinity is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker TRIN. The last closing price for Trinity was 12.75p.
Trinity has a 4 week average price of 12.50p and a 12 week average price of 9.50p.
The 1 year high share price is 18.50p while the 1 year low share price is currently 1.26p.
There are currently 282,399,986 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 2,679,430 shares. The market capitalisation of Trinity is £38,123,998.11.
26/4/2017
09:06
che7win: Hustled, seems a mechanical approach, but each stock is different.As example, I loaded up in OSB after an accelerated bookbuild at 6.5% discount to market price dropped the share price on the week it was going exdividend. It was a gift, got 7.5p dividend plus share price bounced from the 395p level up to 410-415p+ in a couple of weeks, easy money.This price here is a gift, the support is slowly rising each time, it started at 12.5p, but support level keeps rising.Higher lows but also lower highs which I expect to be smashed soon once the market digests the opportunity here.
07/4/2017
15:19
whiskeyinthejar: Mark, how would the market makers use AT trades? An AT trade is made on SETS directly between a buyer and a seller. If the MM is involved, it's not an AT trade. AFAIK there's no reason to swamp order book with multiple small orders except to manipulate. Ergo traders are manipulating the share price. I believe they do it so they get a better price when they buy. And they get a better price to buy because holders have been stopped out or scared into selling when the price is pushed down.
22/3/2017
09:12
che7win: Cantors 37p target is hard to understand in light of the current share price: Old target price New target price Notes09 Mar 17 Cantor Fitzgerald Buy 13.50 - 37.00 Initiates/Starts
07/3/2017
07:43
whiskeyinthejar: The technicals arent stretched imo because you have to expect a high rsi given the transformational change. TRIN was looking pretty screwed but now it has bright future. So how quickly would you expect a restructuring transformation to be priced in? Not overnight, but it shouldn't take more than a few months either. I don't see buying drying up until the new financial situation is priced in. And by then we may have more reasons to hold. I trade on momentum as well as value. So I build positions, let my winning trades run and try to close out my losers quickly. IMO if you take a profit too soon and sit on losses instead, overall you'll lose money on the market. Its not intuitive. People think the share price is going down means -'its cheap so time to buy' or share price going up means 'its 'time to sell'. Doesn't work imo because cheap shares tend to get cheaper and shares going up, tend to keep going up. Or put it another way- both share prices and markets tend to over shoot both to the upside and the downside. IMO you don't want to be caught on wrong side of this. So I topped up yesterday because I build into a position, momentum is bullish and my exit point (based on value) is some way off. Im not going to try to trade any pull back as Im not really a trader and I think the spread is too great.
28/2/2017
12:18
zengas: AimMafia - Re 50p+ ? My thoughts are that the 2C when it is moved to 2P would make the underlying value based on $5/b an approx 54p base target. We know that Amerisur/Andes Energia are valued at up to $15/b on roughly the same metrics. If Trin was only based on it's 20.9 mmbo P2 and was in the middle of drilling, then announced it had found an additional 19.8 mmbs i'm sure the share price would have doubled overnight - yet we already have that additional oil already found. Circa current 2600 bopd base production so generating close to $50m revenue. Not many companies have a stronger baseline investment case with a total of over 40 mmbls P2/2C. Initial focus target of 3,000 bopd from existing 2P increasing the revenue further. I would expect that target to increase. With patience, it's then hoped to bring that 2C online - increasing the production, increasing the revenue further and booking those reserves. If acheived, how would the company then look perhaps doing the best part of $100m revenue a year on roughly 5,200 bopd at a $50/b oil price ? Could it add additional assets for more growth ? There's the additional exploration potential so there's a lot of longer term upside if successful. In the meantime any incentives from the Government could have a very positive impact on all of the above and in particular to valuation.
08/2/2017
12:50
mark10101: Yes a big anomaly here. I felt value was here from £1 all the way down to suspension.... The share price fall was alway massively ahead of the fundamentals which is why I held throughout. Debt levels were not even that scary but hugely better now. I think the market thought TRIN was being positioned for asset stripping. A large shareholder, Segel, came to the rescue in many peoples eyes by getting to 10% and onto the board to prevent shareholder being fleeced. Then they called time on our largest debt but the new board countered that with bankruptcy protection allowing them to sort out a deal. We are where we are now and recovering value. I agree with you price range with what we know now. The T&T government are looking to relax taxation and also want to encourage new acreage to be developed so that could give us a boost beyond. We also plan to grow productionn through workovers and eventual TGAL offshore. Oil price may or may not add to the mix. I know you will have done you research but a bit of a potted history.
04/2/2017
10:22
jungmana: Mark - the review of the fiscal regime in the hydrocarbon industry is much needed in T and T. Will be beneficial to the government in terms of tax revenue, job creation and long term investment in the country. For companies like us , will be even much better as we will keep more of our money and will be more attractive to investors. This will give further impetus to our share price long term. I think with all that's planned by the BOD, a £1 share price is possible in 18 to 24 months here.Onwards and upwards
07/1/2017
08:18
mark10101: Ah, ok that is good. Yes I agree with you on that, sadly though I held from highs hoping for TRINS mundaneness! TRIN was poorly manage and if you go back through my post I have commented many times that is was almost as if the managment were deliberately running the share price down. RNS would be few in coming and when they did come it would be poorly timed with other action on the market or a big fall in oil. The PR was so bad on that front that the actions of the managment and the way in which the RNS's were delivered they could not have achieved any more destruction to shareholder value than they did. Anyway can do little about that now, just maybe TRIn can create some excitement, I believe we have more exciting assets and prospects than PANR personally, they just need to be sold better!
30/7/2015
07:26
cammy3: Trinity Exploration and ProductionIt's no secret I have a very substantial holding in Trinity with a base cost now just over double the current share price. Trinity is an oddity in the E & P sector and is very misunderstood. It faces challenges not dissimilar from most E & P companies in this space - the misunderstanding arises around the assets, their intrinsic value and the step change the Board are trying to achieve in the production and reserves profile of the company.AssetsOnshore Assets producing c.2000-2,500boepd of low cost oil. Break even at c.8-10USD per barrelTrientes field produces the balance production of c.1,200 boepd but through lack of capex has generally underperformed. Optimisation of well design is a key factor and this has not been forthcoming in this oil price environment,TGAL discovery - c.200boepd (management best estimate of 186mboe gross) which they are looking to develop jointly in phased approach with Trientes with a partner (yet to be agreed).Centrica gas assets (40mboe of ready to develop assets. 6 wells already drilled and can be brought online with infrastructure in place). The deal has yet to complete and part of the FSP is aimed at funding the balance of the purchase price of 20.5m USD. these assets are extremely attractive. Trinity is paying $25m for them, Centrica having spent $220m on the exploration, appraisal and wells.(NB. Opex cost of production now 22USD (probably lower as management not taking salaries). Overall, excluding 1P and 2P reserves, the above provides Trinity with over 70mboe of developable reserves.)FinancialsThis is where there is much confusion amongst many pi's invested here as to where the holes in the finances lie. I have summarised below:Cash 7.3m Receivables (oil and VAT of11.2m) 27.2mInventories 11.5m Assets 46mLess:Debt 13mTrade payables 33.9mTax payable 18.4mLiabilities 65.3m There is therefore a working capital deficit of c.15-20m USD depending on current position. In addition the company needs to find an additional 20.5m USD to fund the balance of the Centrica purchase. the board have stated that the debt to Citi will be repaid from proceeds realised from the strategic review. I have no doubt there will be a refinancing and likely project finance available for gas fields but this would be post liquidation of the Citi principal.Objectives of FSP (As I see it)In my view it is pretty simple:1. Through whatever means necessary plug the working capital deficit and ensure that gas deals can complete. Ultimately this means raising in my view 45-50m USD whilst ensuring that the company can be relatively self supporting going forward.2. Work out the least dilutive and most value accretive way of doing this. The Board in their recent analyst call stated that this would most likely take the form of a combination of sales, farm outs and potentially a strategic investor. This seems sensible but it is admittedly a lot to achieve in this market. We can take some comfort from the fact that Trinity was approached with a number of offers/proposals for a range of its assets so whilst encouraging, we would hope that the recent oil price weakness or any lack of competitive tendering as a result does not hinder them moving towards simultaneous closing of deals.Encouragingly, more recently Monty stated in the AGM statement that the progress made to date had underlined their belief in the value of the companies assets.Value realisationThere are clearly a number of routes that Trinity could proceed along. I would suggest the most likely is the following:1. Sale of onshore assets for up to $25-30m.2. A strategic investor who will take up to 20-30% of the company. (See similar scenario with IOG). I would also suggest that the price paid would be at a decent premium to the current share price.3.A farm out of Trients/TGAL to develop on a phased basis in accordance with their FDP4. GSA (supposedly ready) and farm out of of gas fields along with debt/project finance.Its a tall ask, but Trinity have been working on it for a while. Clearly there will be some dilution but this does not bother me one iota. The reason being, the current market cap is £10m and I think any equity would be via a strategic partner at a premium. The equity market directly I would argue is currently closed off on valuation grounds. given the upside valuation of assets below to believe there is not significant upside from 10p you would have to believe that the equity issuance would be so penal (ie 300% of current equity in issue). I think that is commercially not viable.From a valuation perspective, I refer to Jeffries Broker note which attaches a price target of 16p to Trinity until the upside scenario becomes more clear in terms of whether they can pull the above off. their upside case on a risked basis is 45p (unrisked of 102p).Individual Asset Valuations:Jeffries conservatively value the onshore assets on a risked basis of 25p per share (valuing each onshore barrel at $6.2) or in USD terms $39m.The Trientes undeveloped aspects and the TGAL discovery have risked values of 48p and 40p per share respectively. The unrisked values are set at 109p and 142 respectively. Clearly, these assets need to be farmed out. the value of the developed assets at Trientes are probably neutral at present until further capital can be injected to enhance performance. We have to hope they are not a liability. With farm out and higher oil prices/infrastructure cost savings via economies of scale Trinity should be able to access a good proportion of the risked and unrisked upside here.Then to the gas fields. These, I have stated before are the golden goose - if they can complete the deal by raising the 20.5m and funding the devt then the upside case is very significant. Jeffries value conservatively, with large discounts for success case ahead of financing the risked values of the 1a1b fields as 33p and the unrisked value of £2.13. Clearly this has been heavily discounted due to the fact the deal/financing has not been concluded. This is why I am relatively comfortable that even with some strategic dilution, it would take an enormous amount to render the current share price reflective of value. As it stands the share price represents the uncertainty of Trinity being able to consummate the various parts of the necessary financing rather than the value of the assets. They will have to give some away, but doing so should enable them to access a step change in production and valuation.Overall, its high risk high reward. Its a brutal market, and Trinity have not just one but potentially multiple deals to do to pull this off. I understand the GSA/farm out of the gas fields was almost ready pending completion. But, asset valuations will continue to be hit by lower prevailing oil prices. the big risk is that they cannot consummate deals. Whils tI believe equity will be issued at a premium I would be surprised if equity was issued as part of the FSP on current valuations. Equally, they need to turn the VAT debtor into cash and we need to be updated on progress here otherwise this will hold up recapitalisation. The book on Trinity is now very tight. 20k of stock will move the price a penny. In these markets uncertainty is penalised so Trinity must now secure the deals they have promised. Is they do, the upside from here is very significant. If they don't, the gas fields must be relinquished. Not one for the feint hearted but still potentially massive upside at this level. They have an extremely strong board with a strong track record. I think this could drag on for longer whilst Trinity put their ducks in order. All the pieces need to fall together for it to work.
23/7/2015
15:04
griff2711: Excellent write up on motley fool by a large shareholder:Trinity Exploration and ProductionIt's no secret I have a very substantial holding in Trinity with a base cost now just over double the current share price. Trinity is an oddity in the E & P sector and is very misunderstood. It faces challenges not dissimilar from most E & P companies in this space - the misunderstanding arises around the assets, their intrinsic value and the step change the Board are trying to achieve in the production and reserves profile of the company.AssetsOnshore Assets producing c.2000-2,500boepd of low cost oil. Break even at c.8-10USD per barrelTrientes field produces the balance production of c.1,200 boepd but through lack of capex has generally underperformed. Optimisation of well design is a key factor and this has not been forthcoming in this oil price environment,TGAL discovery - c.200boepd (management best estimate of 186mboe gross) which they are looking to develop jointly in phased approach with Trientes with a partner (yet to be agreed).Centrica gas assets (40mboe of ready to develop assets. 6 wells already drilled and can be brought online with infrastructure in place). The deal has yet to complete and part of the FSP is aimed at funding the balance of the purchase price of 20.5m USD. these assets are extremely attractive. Trinity is paying $25m for them, Centrica having spent $220m on the exploration, appraisal and wells.(NB. Opex cost of production now 22USD (probably lower as management not taking salaries). Overall, excluding 1P and 2P reserves, the above provides Trinity with over 70mboe of developable reserves.)FinancialsThis is where there is much confusion amongst many pi's invested here as to where the holes in the finances lie. I have summarised below:Cash 7.3m Receivables (oil and VAT of11.2m) 27.2mInventories 11.5m Assets 46mLess:Debt 13mTrade payables 33.9mTax payable 18.4mLiabilities 65.3m There is therefore a working capital deficit of c.15-20m USD depending on current position. In addition the company needs to find an additional 20.5m USD to fund the balance of the Centrica purchase. the board have stated that the debt to Citi will be repaid from proceeds realised from the strategic review. I have no doubt there will be a refinancing and likely project finance available for gas fields but this would be post liquidation of the Citi principal.Objectives of FSP (As I see it)In my view it is pretty simple:1. Through whatever means necessary plug the working capital deficit and ensure that gas deals can complete. Ultimately this means raising in my view 45-50m USD whilst ensuring that the company can be relatively self supporting going forward.2. Work out the least dilutive and most value accretive way of doing this. The Board in their recent analyst call stated that this would most likely take the form of a combination of sales, farm outs and potentially a strategic investor. This seems sensible but it is admittedly a lot to achieve in this market. We can take some comfort from the fact that Trinity was approached with a number of offers/proposals for a range of its assets so whilst encouraging, we would hope that the recent oil price weakness or any lack of competitive tendering as a result does not hinder them moving towards simultaneous closing of deals.Encouragingly, more recently Monty stated in the AGM statement that the progress made to date had underlined their belief in the value of the companies assets.Value realisationThere are clearly a number of routes that Trinity could proceed along. I would suggest the most likely is the following:1. Sale of onshore assets for up to $25-30m.2. A strategic investor who will take up to 20-30% of the company. (See similar scenario with IOG). I would also suggest that the price paid would be at a decent premium to the current share price.3.A farm out of Trients/TGAL to develop on a phased basis in accordance with their FDP4. GSA (supposedly ready) and farm out of of gas fields along with debt/project finance.Its a tall ask, but Trinity have been working on it for a while. Clearly there will be some dilution but this does not bother me one iota. The reason being, the current market cap is £10m and I think any equity would be via a strategic partner at a premium. The equity market directly I would argue is currently closed off on valuation grounds. given the upside valuation of assets below to believe there is not significant upside from 10p you would have to believe that the equity issuance would be so penal (ie 300% of current equity in issue). I think that is commercially not viable.From a valuation perspective, I refer to Jeffries Broker note which attaches a price target of 16p to Trinity until the upside scenario becomes more clear in terms of whether they can pull the above off. their upside case on a risked basis is 45p (unrisked of 102p).Individual Asset Valuations:Jeffries conservatively value the onshore assets on a risked basis of 25p per share (valuing each onshore barrel at $6.2) or in USD terms $39m.The Trientes undeveloped aspects and the TGAL discovery have risked values of 48p and 40p per share respectively. The unrisked values are set at 109p and 142 respectively. Clearly, these assets need to be farmed out. the value of the developed assets at Trientes are probably neutral at present until further capital can be injected to enhance performance. We have to hope they are not a liability. With farm out and higher oil prices/infrastructure cost savings via economies of scale Trinity should be able to access a good proportion of the risked and unrisked upside here.Then to the gas fields. These, I have stated before are the golden goose - if they can complete the deal by raising the 20.5m and funding the devt then the upside case is very significant. Jeffries value conservatively, with large discounts for success case ahead of financing the risked values of the 1a1b fields as 33p and the unrisked value of £2.13. Clearly this has been heavily discounted due to the fact the deal/financing has not been concluded. This is why I am relatively comfortable that even with some strategic dilution, it would take an enormous amount to render the current share price reflective of value. As it stands the share price represents the uncertainty of Trinity being able to consummate the various parts of the necessary financing rather than the value of the assets. They will have to give some away, but doing so should enable them to access a step change in production and valuation.Overall, its high risk high reward. Its a brutal market, and Trinity have not just one but potentially multiple deals to do to pull this off. I understand the GSA/farm out of the gas fields was almost ready pending completion. But, asset valuations will continue to be hit by lower prevailing oil prices. the big risk is that they cannot consummate deals. Whils tI believe equity will be issued at a premium I would be surprised if equity was issued as part of the FSP on current valuations. Equally, they need to turn the VAT debtor into cash and we need to be updated on progress here otherwise this will hold up recapitalisation. The book on Trinity is now very tight. 20k of stock will move the price a penny. In these markets uncertainty is penalised so Trinity must now secure the deals they have promised. Is they do, the upside from here is very significant. If they don't, the gas fields must be relinquished. Not one for the feint hearted but still potentially massive upside at this level. They have an extremely strong board with a strong track record. I think this could drag on for longer whilst Trinity put their ducks in order. All the pieces need to fall together for it to work.Twitter : @oilinvestorlanc
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