Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Trinity LSE:TRIN London Ordinary Share GB00B8JG4R91 ORD USD1.00
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 1.875p 0.00p 0.00p - - - 0.00 05:00:10
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 32.7 -21.0 -42.1 - 1.78

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Date Time Title Posts
09/12/201617:25TRINITY EXPLORATION and PRODUCTION LTD2,950.00
21/4/200419:59TRIN: Trading Index, Charts & Comments21.00

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DateSubject
09/12/2016
08:20
Trinity Daily Update: Trinity is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker TRIN. The last closing price for Trinity was 1.88p.
Trinity has a 4 week average price of 0p and a 12 week average price of 0p.
The 1 year high share price is 4.50p while the 1 year low share price is currently 0p.
There are currently 94,799,986 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 0 shares. The market capitalisation of Trinity is £1,777,499.74.
10/10/2016
15:27
mark10101: Even if we only just refinance the whole debt 20p would be a sell out. Many companies trading at higher with less production and more total debt. I guess the share price got hammered as it looked like share holders were going to be ripped off. I have a little hope after this recent move that they are fighting for shareholder value. Get us back trading with new finance and I may even become hopeful of recouping a good chunk of what I put in.
25/5/2016
18:47
rossannan: WTI still heading in the right direction. Long may it continue. It might have to go some to relieve the drag that this state of affairs is having on the share price:"As part of the refinancing deal it is expected that there would have to be significant discounts agreed on the outstanding senior debt and with its creditors. Without such a refinancing, the Group and Company would be unlikely to be able to continue as a going concern."Every little helps though.
13/5/2016
07:28
phoenix equity: Is not the share price at 2.75p ? It has dropped from over 20p only about 15 months ago. This is from some of the l and g selling and they still have 3.5million to dump. No buyers in trinity and once l and g start re-selling the price will drop.
22/3/2016
07:26
rossannan: PANR's low costs going forward should pretty much allow them to self-fund. Something could go wrong, as with any share, but that is the story that is supporting the share price. If something does go wrong, PANR could then become comparable to TRIN, but unless and until something does go wrong there is no comparison.
25/1/2016
10:58
mark10101: AlexP6 it seems to be what the share price is telling us. I did always say it was the most likely explanation for the share price weakness beyond the obvious oil issues. The destruction in share price value has been so brutal it looked deliberate.
19/11/2015
07:30
mark10101: Yes makes no sense but nothing has since I have been here. Market punished the share price so much I could only assume they were destroying the share price for a cheap buyout. However recent news suggest they genuingly are trying to turn things around. It may be Monty was running the company for the employment benefit of Trinadad and the market is yet to recognise this change. Hopping for a much better 2016!
21/10/2015
06:28
mark10101: I think that is an excellent RNS considering the more negative scenarios that market seemed to believe we're coming for TRIN. I think with 1200bopd left at least, with the debt paid off and the offshore assets we have £20mcap today would not be out of order (not remotely predicting that for the actually share price rise). A few years down the line we could actually regain previous highs for TRIN if there is a recovery of POO. Well done for those that held, it did look the share price was walked down to 5p in the last few days to give a platform for a rise.
30/7/2015
15:11
griff2711: Going by the current share price you forget this was issued only a month ago:"Since the FSP started the Board has been engaging with a number of interested parties to progress a number of options to maximise and ensure long term value. Progress to date has underlined management's confidence in the value of the assets. In tandem to working towards a possible solution, Trinity continues to manage its liquidity position with its creditors. Our principal lender has been supportive of Trinity during the FSP and management continues to work closely with them in terms of our existing facilities.Operationally, Trinity reacted quickly to the changed price environment in reducing overheads and cutting back on discretionary costs, and as a result we have seen a substantial fall in our general and administrative and operating costs.Trinity's current 2P reserves base continues to yield solid production rates, robust cash conversion levels and offers visibility on the upside potential from an inventory of drilling locations (across the asset base) that could enhance production levels on the deployment of capital.The steps Trinity has taken over the past year provides the Company with a solid platform from which to move forward. In the first quarter of 2015 all of Trinity's assets generated positive operating cash flow."Need some reassurance that the above is all still the case, apart from the Centrica deal collapse.
30/7/2015
06:26
cammy3: Trinity Exploration and ProductionIt's no secret I have a very substantial holding in Trinity with a base cost now just over double the current share price. Trinity is an oddity in the E & P sector and is very misunderstood. It faces challenges not dissimilar from most E & P companies in this space - the misunderstanding arises around the assets, their intrinsic value and the step change the Board are trying to achieve in the production and reserves profile of the company.AssetsOnshore Assets producing c.2000-2,500boepd of low cost oil. Break even at c.8-10USD per barrelTrientes field produces the balance production of c.1,200 boepd but through lack of capex has generally underperformed. Optimisation of well design is a key factor and this has not been forthcoming in this oil price environment,TGAL discovery - c.200boepd (management best estimate of 186mboe gross) which they are looking to develop jointly in phased approach with Trientes with a partner (yet to be agreed).Centrica gas assets (40mboe of ready to develop assets. 6 wells already drilled and can be brought online with infrastructure in place). The deal has yet to complete and part of the FSP is aimed at funding the balance of the purchase price of 20.5m USD. these assets are extremely attractive. Trinity is paying $25m for them, Centrica having spent $220m on the exploration, appraisal and wells.(NB. Opex cost of production now 22USD (probably lower as management not taking salaries). Overall, excluding 1P and 2P reserves, the above provides Trinity with over 70mboe of developable reserves.)FinancialsThis is where there is much confusion amongst many pi's invested here as to where the holes in the finances lie. I have summarised below:Cash 7.3m Receivables (oil and VAT of11.2m) 27.2mInventories 11.5m Assets 46mLess:Debt 13mTrade payables 33.9mTax payable 18.4mLiabilities 65.3m There is therefore a working capital deficit of c.15-20m USD depending on current position. In addition the company needs to find an additional 20.5m USD to fund the balance of the Centrica purchase. the board have stated that the debt to Citi will be repaid from proceeds realised from the strategic review. I have no doubt there will be a refinancing and likely project finance available for gas fields but this would be post liquidation of the Citi principal.Objectives of FSP (As I see it)In my view it is pretty simple:1. Through whatever means necessary plug the working capital deficit and ensure that gas deals can complete. Ultimately this means raising in my view 45-50m USD whilst ensuring that the company can be relatively self supporting going forward.2. Work out the least dilutive and most value accretive way of doing this. The Board in their recent analyst call stated that this would most likely take the form of a combination of sales, farm outs and potentially a strategic investor. This seems sensible but it is admittedly a lot to achieve in this market. We can take some comfort from the fact that Trinity was approached with a number of offers/proposals for a range of its assets so whilst encouraging, we would hope that the recent oil price weakness or any lack of competitive tendering as a result does not hinder them moving towards simultaneous closing of deals.Encouragingly, more recently Monty stated in the AGM statement that the progress made to date had underlined their belief in the value of the companies assets.Value realisationThere are clearly a number of routes that Trinity could proceed along. I would suggest the most likely is the following:1. Sale of onshore assets for up to $25-30m.2. A strategic investor who will take up to 20-30% of the company. (See similar scenario with IOG). I would also suggest that the price paid would be at a decent premium to the current share price.3.A farm out of Trients/TGAL to develop on a phased basis in accordance with their FDP4. GSA (supposedly ready) and farm out of of gas fields along with debt/project finance.Its a tall ask, but Trinity have been working on it for a while. Clearly there will be some dilution but this does not bother me one iota. The reason being, the current market cap is £10m and I think any equity would be via a strategic partner at a premium. The equity market directly I would argue is currently closed off on valuation grounds. given the upside valuation of assets below to believe there is not significant upside from 10p you would have to believe that the equity issuance would be so penal (ie 300% of current equity in issue). I think that is commercially not viable.From a valuation perspective, I refer to Jeffries Broker note which attaches a price target of 16p to Trinity until the upside scenario becomes more clear in terms of whether they can pull the above off. their upside case on a risked basis is 45p (unrisked of 102p).Individual Asset Valuations:Jeffries conservatively value the onshore assets on a risked basis of 25p per share (valuing each onshore barrel at $6.2) or in USD terms $39m.The Trientes undeveloped aspects and the TGAL discovery have risked values of 48p and 40p per share respectively. The unrisked values are set at 109p and 142 respectively. Clearly, these assets need to be farmed out. the value of the developed assets at Trientes are probably neutral at present until further capital can be injected to enhance performance. We have to hope they are not a liability. With farm out and higher oil prices/infrastructure cost savings via economies of scale Trinity should be able to access a good proportion of the risked and unrisked upside here.Then to the gas fields. These, I have stated before are the golden goose - if they can complete the deal by raising the 20.5m and funding the devt then the upside case is very significant. Jeffries value conservatively, with large discounts for success case ahead of financing the risked values of the 1a1b fields as 33p and the unrisked value of £2.13. Clearly this has been heavily discounted due to the fact the deal/financing has not been concluded. This is why I am relatively comfortable that even with some strategic dilution, it would take an enormous amount to render the current share price reflective of value. As it stands the share price represents the uncertainty of Trinity being able to consummate the various parts of the necessary financing rather than the value of the assets. They will have to give some away, but doing so should enable them to access a step change in production and valuation.Overall, its high risk high reward. Its a brutal market, and Trinity have not just one but potentially multiple deals to do to pull this off. I understand the GSA/farm out of the gas fields was almost ready pending completion. But, asset valuations will continue to be hit by lower prevailing oil prices. the big risk is that they cannot consummate deals. Whils tI believe equity will be issued at a premium I would be surprised if equity was issued as part of the FSP on current valuations. Equally, they need to turn the VAT debtor into cash and we need to be updated on progress here otherwise this will hold up recapitalisation. The book on Trinity is now very tight. 20k of stock will move the price a penny. In these markets uncertainty is penalised so Trinity must now secure the deals they have promised. Is they do, the upside from here is very significant. If they don't, the gas fields must be relinquished. Not one for the feint hearted but still potentially massive upside at this level. They have an extremely strong board with a strong track record. I think this could drag on for longer whilst Trinity put their ducks in order. All the pieces need to fall together for it to work.
23/7/2015
14:04
griff2711: Excellent write up on motley fool by a large shareholder:Trinity Exploration and ProductionIt's no secret I have a very substantial holding in Trinity with a base cost now just over double the current share price. Trinity is an oddity in the E & P sector and is very misunderstood. It faces challenges not dissimilar from most E & P companies in this space - the misunderstanding arises around the assets, their intrinsic value and the step change the Board are trying to achieve in the production and reserves profile of the company.AssetsOnshore Assets producing c.2000-2,500boepd of low cost oil. Break even at c.8-10USD per barrelTrientes field produces the balance production of c.1,200 boepd but through lack of capex has generally underperformed. Optimisation of well design is a key factor and this has not been forthcoming in this oil price environment,TGAL discovery - c.200boepd (management best estimate of 186mboe gross) which they are looking to develop jointly in phased approach with Trientes with a partner (yet to be agreed).Centrica gas assets (40mboe of ready to develop assets. 6 wells already drilled and can be brought online with infrastructure in place). The deal has yet to complete and part of the FSP is aimed at funding the balance of the purchase price of 20.5m USD. these assets are extremely attractive. Trinity is paying $25m for them, Centrica having spent $220m on the exploration, appraisal and wells.(NB. Opex cost of production now 22USD (probably lower as management not taking salaries). Overall, excluding 1P and 2P reserves, the above provides Trinity with over 70mboe of developable reserves.)FinancialsThis is where there is much confusion amongst many pi's invested here as to where the holes in the finances lie. I have summarised below:Cash 7.3m Receivables (oil and VAT of11.2m) 27.2mInventories 11.5m Assets 46mLess:Debt 13mTrade payables 33.9mTax payable 18.4mLiabilities 65.3m There is therefore a working capital deficit of c.15-20m USD depending on current position. In addition the company needs to find an additional 20.5m USD to fund the balance of the Centrica purchase. the board have stated that the debt to Citi will be repaid from proceeds realised from the strategic review. I have no doubt there will be a refinancing and likely project finance available for gas fields but this would be post liquidation of the Citi principal.Objectives of FSP (As I see it)In my view it is pretty simple:1. Through whatever means necessary plug the working capital deficit and ensure that gas deals can complete. Ultimately this means raising in my view 45-50m USD whilst ensuring that the company can be relatively self supporting going forward.2. Work out the least dilutive and most value accretive way of doing this. The Board in their recent analyst call stated that this would most likely take the form of a combination of sales, farm outs and potentially a strategic investor. This seems sensible but it is admittedly a lot to achieve in this market. We can take some comfort from the fact that Trinity was approached with a number of offers/proposals for a range of its assets so whilst encouraging, we would hope that the recent oil price weakness or any lack of competitive tendering as a result does not hinder them moving towards simultaneous closing of deals.Encouragingly, more recently Monty stated in the AGM statement that the progress made to date had underlined their belief in the value of the companies assets.Value realisationThere are clearly a number of routes that Trinity could proceed along. I would suggest the most likely is the following:1. Sale of onshore assets for up to $25-30m.2. A strategic investor who will take up to 20-30% of the company. (See similar scenario with IOG). I would also suggest that the price paid would be at a decent premium to the current share price.3.A farm out of Trients/TGAL to develop on a phased basis in accordance with their FDP4. GSA (supposedly ready) and farm out of of gas fields along with debt/project finance.Its a tall ask, but Trinity have been working on it for a while. Clearly there will be some dilution but this does not bother me one iota. The reason being, the current market cap is £10m and I think any equity would be via a strategic partner at a premium. The equity market directly I would argue is currently closed off on valuation grounds. given the upside valuation of assets below to believe there is not significant upside from 10p you would have to believe that the equity issuance would be so penal (ie 300% of current equity in issue). I think that is commercially not viable.From a valuation perspective, I refer to Jeffries Broker note which attaches a price target of 16p to Trinity until the upside scenario becomes more clear in terms of whether they can pull the above off. their upside case on a risked basis is 45p (unrisked of 102p).Individual Asset Valuations:Jeffries conservatively value the onshore assets on a risked basis of 25p per share (valuing each onshore barrel at $6.2) or in USD terms $39m.The Trientes undeveloped aspects and the TGAL discovery have risked values of 48p and 40p per share respectively. The unrisked values are set at 109p and 142 respectively. Clearly, these assets need to be farmed out. the value of the developed assets at Trientes are probably neutral at present until further capital can be injected to enhance performance. We have to hope they are not a liability. With farm out and higher oil prices/infrastructure cost savings via economies of scale Trinity should be able to access a good proportion of the risked and unrisked upside here.Then to the gas fields. These, I have stated before are the golden goose - if they can complete the deal by raising the 20.5m and funding the devt then the upside case is very significant. Jeffries value conservatively, with large discounts for success case ahead of financing the risked values of the 1a1b fields as 33p and the unrisked value of £2.13. Clearly this has been heavily discounted due to the fact the deal/financing has not been concluded. This is why I am relatively comfortable that even with some strategic dilution, it would take an enormous amount to render the current share price reflective of value. As it stands the share price represents the uncertainty of Trinity being able to consummate the various parts of the necessary financing rather than the value of the assets. They will have to give some away, but doing so should enable them to access a step change in production and valuation.Overall, its high risk high reward. Its a brutal market, and Trinity have not just one but potentially multiple deals to do to pull this off. I understand the GSA/farm out of the gas fields was almost ready pending completion. But, asset valuations will continue to be hit by lower prevailing oil prices. the big risk is that they cannot consummate deals. Whils tI believe equity will be issued at a premium I would be surprised if equity was issued as part of the FSP on current valuations. Equally, they need to turn the VAT debtor into cash and we need to be updated on progress here otherwise this will hold up recapitalisation. The book on Trinity is now very tight. 20k of stock will move the price a penny. In these markets uncertainty is penalised so Trinity must now secure the deals they have promised. Is they do, the upside from here is very significant. If they don't, the gas fields must be relinquished. Not one for the feint hearted but still potentially massive upside at this level. They have an extremely strong board with a strong track record. I think this could drag on for longer whilst Trinity put their ducks in order. All the pieces need to fall together for it to work.Twitter : @oilinvestorlanc
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