Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[yasx] 13/3/2017 10:15

I this morning have taken a few more.

[mark10101] 13/3/2017 10:00

Yes seems like people are stepping in now.

[the big fella] 13/3/2017 09:53

Indeed. Had another 150k at 14.95p

[mark10101] 13/3/2017 09:38

Yes profit taking at 18p was always on the cards even when looking up from the 7p relisitng price and seems to be playing out as expected. Combined with WTI it is a welcome cool off. Ultimately MM know they shift a lot more stock when rising the prise so these resets are short sharp and controlled so they can then switch and achieve hugely more volume on the next leg up. I can understand somone selling at 18p, who in there right mind will sell in the 14p's? Very few judging by today volume.

[onedayrodders] 13/3/2017 09:35

Agreed BF ... natural consolidation

Quick O/T in this quiet period

Beautiful breakout at DISTIL PLC (DIS)

Creates brand drinks to be sold to majors ... star performer Red Leg Rum now breaking into the top 10 sellers. Tesco, Sainsbury's and Waitrose supermarkets all now stocking.

Last week it was revealed that Weatherspoons (1000 outlets) are now selling.

Typical sell value of leading spirit brand anything from £50m upwards.

And they have other top 10 brands in the Gin market which has seen a renaissance with exploding sales.

Mkt Cap £10m + change

Follow the RNS's over the last 6 months to get a feel for a potential big winner in the making.

ODR

[the big fella] 13/3/2017 09:28

I think the fall in WTI combined with a bit of profit taking has lead to this retrace. I would be surprised if it fell much further.

[mark10101] 13/3/2017 09:24

LGO 16m MCAP up 15% today due to a new well producing 45 bopd. TRIN is still looking massively undervalued here.

[whiskeyinthejar] 11/3/2017 17:31

Wwick, my comments were about the short term, not economics. Im well aware the world needs oil!

Im also aware of break evens, taxes and possible hedges, but a $5 or $10 fall in wti does cut into trin revenue and sentiment.

A cut in general oil production is exactly what Cramer said he thinks is necessary for oil to bottom.



He also says fall in wti is an opportunity to buy into low cost producers.

So not a return to $30, but a dip to convince shalers to cut back.

Saudi said this week they wont extend their cuts another 6 months to prop up shale. But I don't see shale cooperating in any kind of deal.

So IMO Cramer is right, wti has to fall just a little bit more to get shale to cool the beans with their plans.

And Im not sure rise in fed rates if it happens this week is priced in.

Again, Im talking about the short term, which isn't relevant to long term value.

[aimmafia] 11/3/2017 16:41

Broker notes are normally unrealistic most of the time. 37p seems achievable near term.

[wwick] 11/3/2017 16:05

Whisky, regarding oil price, with a Operating Break Even of c. $29 TRIN are better placed than most. If oil $ continues to slide some producers with a higher Operating Break Even would be forced to cut production, or lose money and this cut in production would redress the downward pressure. Economics aside, governments will not let the industry be damaged like last year IMO, the world needs oil, it is too important. Also suggest you google 'Oil prices to rise to $70 by 2018, says Morgan Stanley'.

[whiskeyinthejar] 11/3/2017 14:46

Is 37p their valuation then, or just their target?

I don't believe there's any conspiracy.

IMO it just sounds like Cantor are being fair. You wouldnt expect them to price in things where there's no firm plans eg. they can't calculate the value of trin under reformed tax system as hasn't happened yet. And they need to risk things according to the rules they apply to all company broker notes.

It just means we as investors can look to further upside beyond their valuation. That's normal imo- investor's are optimists in any company, believing in managements ability to deliver, believing in fiscal reform will happen etc.

Short term, the oil price is my worry. Sentiment affects things more than facts sometimes. Market is obsessing about inventory and pattern has been builds. Interest rates could go up this week, which means stronger dollar and weaker poo. And Saudi comments about extending their cut in production another 6 months have been mixed.

Anyway, i hope management use the Cantor note to sell trin now, because haven't seen this note but sounds like no one will be able to pick holes in it.

[mark10101] 11/3/2017 13:26

It really would not surprise me if we are taken out before we reach that conservative brokers rating. It may be a reason for it being so conservative.

[wwick] 11/3/2017 13:07

Cantor Fitzgerald BUY 37p facts: 1)assumes 2017 production rate <3k bopd. 2)based on only depletion of the 1P reserves. 3)assumes new drilling largely stops after 2018. 4)excludes any allowance for T&T fiscal reform. -In addition, reference is given to the 700MMstbbls STOIIP Galeota anticline (Malcy also reflects on this). The unrisked NPV for this is >$600m and risked is >$30m. Using the risked NPV, the associated p/share is >10p. -In summary the CF target valuation is CONSERVATIVE!!!!

[richyggg] 11/3/2017 11:54

Aim Mafia - "I remember at 8p when you couldn't give trin away. "

Untrue.

[mark10101] 11/3/2017 10:42

Aim no need to defend youserlf, your strategy was clear and 18p was a good trading exit point and you sensibly waited to see how things went at that point, because with a rise in oil above $55 and the brokers note together I think we would be above 20p now. We have hopefully a short term oil blip and we do see you again.

As a long term holder I feel I should hold until we are taken over, will make the decision for me.

[astorcourt] 11/3/2017 10:31

Good luck AimMafia,
Buy back in here soon, you add color to the thread with your ongoing commentary,

[aimmafia] 11/3/2017 10:15

Astor court I remember at 8p when you couldn't give trin away. A few people said I needed my head seeing too. Guess what 18p last week.Everyone has their own trading strategy. Mines working just fine. My Portfolio is now 238% up since December 2016. Just because my selection of stocks do not match yours, doesn't mean I need my head seeing too. Trin will continue to rise. And if my other selection does what I think it will then I will be back here with a much larger wedge.All the best. Mafia.

[runwaypaul] 11/3/2017 09:52

“If oil prices continue to slide, then the risk increases that the weaker Opec nations [Iraq, Venezuela, Angola] start to export more oil to reduce diminishing revenues,” said Olivier Jakob of Petromatrix, a Switzerland-based consultancy

[3dwd] 11/3/2017 09:42

I shorted Rose !!! ...will buy back sometime next week !

[astorcourt] 11/3/2017 08:00

AimMafia, if you sold this to buy into ROSE, you need visit to the clinic!!

[astorcourt] 11/3/2017 07:52

SO 44% look to be in the hands of individual longtermers, maybe add 5% retail long termers, those looking for longer term fair value or takeout. (not Aim Mafia Types)

What will happen to the share price should a few institutions want in on the action?

[wwick] 11/3/2017 06:37

For anyone new, I suggest you start with this link and then consider the major shareholders (copied below).
[...]
David and Christina Segel Living Trust 33,917,256 12.01%
Angus Winther 22,657,015 8.02%
Gavin White 22,657,015 8.02%
Bruce Dingwall 12,215,498 4.32%
Scott Casto 11,328,507 4.01%
Lan-Dirk Lueders 11,328,507 4.01%
Tim & Lisa Robinson 11,328,507 4.01%
Cantors explain how their valuation is conservative and I shall be happy to help others understand this. Cheers

[mark10101] 10/3/2017 20:12

Does anyone know what TRIN has hedged at, they did say they were going to strategically hedge.

[aimmafia] 10/3/2017 19:30

I bought at 8 sold at 16.89That's it. Hardly trading it :)

[runwaypaul] 10/3/2017 18:48

cant see many thick wedges sold over 18 on the trades lists,must be delayed.