Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[the big fella] 15/2/2017 16:07

Indeed. The current cashflow will see that small amount of debt that remains paid down in no time.

[marvelman] 15/2/2017 16:05

Yes Big Fella, I did you an injustice for not giving you credit also for a very interesting read on the intro to this thread. I have very quickly gone overweight on this company having been a holder a while back and sold when I decided the debt position was untennable. Very different now.Regards.

[the big fella] 15/2/2017 15:59

Just a quick reminder why TRIN remains IMHO the most undervalued oil play around:

282.5m shares @ 11.75p = £33.1m m/cap.

Long term net debt is only $9.7m and short-medium term it's actually a net cash position of $4.5m and with current production levels debt will disappear quickly.
Break even off shore $29.50/b and might fall some more (incl royalties, opex etc).
Break even on shore = $18/b.

TRIN quoted assumption was getting $45/b when the WTI oil price was $50/b.
Assuming 10% discount to the latest price - then we should be getting $50/b now.

Doing 1400 bopd onshore at $50/b less $18/b breakeven gives $32/b or $16.4m/yr.
Off shore at 1200 bopd at $50/b less $30/b breakeven gives $20/b or $8.76m/yr.
That's currently $48m revenue and $25m+ currently back after all costs so over $2m month.

If they progress that to the 3,000 bopd target pro rata from on and offshore that would take revenue to $60m and $30m/yr back at $2.5m month.

Valuing 20.7 mmbo P2 at just $5/b = $103.5m (£80m).
19.8m 2C at $1/b = further $19.8m (£15m).

Valuation currently of £33.1 versus £95m of both production/reserves value = fair value of 33p. The valuation post restructuring is totally and unequivocally cheap – Where else do you get such significant revenue, net backs, production, both P2 and 2C discoveries so cheaply?.

[marvelman] 15/2/2017 15:58

Good point Rodders. Very comfortable to sit and wait with the debt position (or lack of it) a very welcome sight and the envy of many (or most) of the other oilers.

[onedayrodders] 15/2/2017 15:54

Worth noting mkt cap of Andes Energia which is used in ZENGAS valuation case above has since increased to £168m

[mark10101] 15/2/2017 15:46

WTI could be a good tail wind for the end of the session. I still think we are in the early phase of the rerate so still think anyone joining now is ahead of the curve.

Zengas numbers are sensible but don't account for the markets becoming exuberant. Things could get very interesting here in an overvaluation situation.

[marvelman] 15/2/2017 15:40

Bought in yesterday on the write up from Zengas and addded today. So under valued based on those numbers and as always peeved not to have been more awake to this when it re-organised its finances. Regards to all.

[woodpeckers] 15/2/2017 15:36

I'm good thanks del, hope you are too. Welcome che, good time to hop on board.
What a lovely group we've got here! Let's hope TRIN makes us all rich! :-)

[che7win] 15/2/2017 15:05

Joined you all this week.

[deltrotter] 15/2/2017 13:48

hi woody - hope you are well.

[aimmafia] 15/2/2017 12:36

Al the delayed buys to stop the share price getting away

[760il] 15/2/2017 12:15

It seems MMS shuffling bid side when buys gets reported.

such as the one 82k @ 12.62p

[loveandmoney1] 15/2/2017 11:58

delayed 124k buy@12.45 looks like it was responsible for kicking it up
hopefully a break up into 15-20 range soon gl

[kaos3] 15/2/2017 11:45

lets steal Venezuela oil. that is my mayor investment premise here (and all the rest which mark explained in concise fashion). same oil system

[woodpeckers] 15/2/2017 11:41

Glad to see you haven't changed del! ;-)

[aimmafia] 15/2/2017 11:35

12.75 on the bid will be a new high

[onedayrodders] 15/2/2017 11:34

cheers del

[kaos3] 15/2/2017 11:25

despite being Slovene I have a cup with: next year this time we will be zillllllionaires

[astorcourt] 15/2/2017 10:57

One Day Rodders and deltrotter, together, funny.

[wild billy boy] 15/2/2017 10:56

Buys in the background .

Just marked up to 13p.

[deltrotter] 15/2/2017 10:54

Oil I think rodders.

[onedayrodders] 15/2/2017 10:52

nice pics . just need the company to confirm whats flowing through them

[someuwin] 15/2/2017 10:43

Yup - those pics are from their website.

[astorcourt] 15/2/2017 10:40

someuwin, wow, does all that belong to trinity?