Trikona Trinity Capital Share Discussion Threads

[mark1000] 30/6/2009 13:26

RBCRBC

Nicely summed up - not sure if these institutions are as turned on as we are - afterall the price rise was a nice upward trend and up to say 45p to 50p a no brainer did the Institions take much interest? I suppose we deal in thousands of shares they deal in millions - this may be a situation where the PI has a better opportunity than the big guys. We make 30K we are delighted they make 30K they say why bother no wonder my investments are performing so much better now that I manage them myself rather than pay some fat cat over the odds to do a poor job.

[rbcrbc] 30/6/2009 12:48

20p would be nicer ;-)

It will be a game of nerves, as soon as any significant buying starts the price will jump quickly back up, but if we hold our nerve long enough some will get a real bargain (and the latecomers will kick themselves).

I still think that there is significant upside from 60p otherwise QVT would have been selling into the buyback, so even picking up a few at 50p and closing ones eyes for a month will yield a good return.

[papy02] 29/6/2009 19:27

ilostthelot

They won't be buying back any more till the preliminary results expected July 27.


The Company has now bought and cancelled the full number permissible under the closed period buy-back programme as announced on 27 May 2009

Contrary to that RNS, they haven't in fact quite reached the buyback number annnounced on May 27 (they are about 1.3m short of that 19.38m target).

The issue stopping the buyback seems to be more that QVC's share of the issued share capital is now 29.9% , so TRC buyback of more than a few hundred thousand more shares would drive QVC over the 30% threshold which means they must make a mandatory bid under the Takeover Code.

As RBCRBC comments, will be interesting to see how far the share price sags given the lack of buyback support pre July 27.

Also what happens after July 27, as the QVC situation won't have gone away (unless they start selling down)

[ilostthelot] 29/6/2009 13:13

It will be intresting to see if they contiunr to buywhile the share price drops. 40p would be nice to get back in at .I am glad to have made 50% myself Gray. I got in at 42 at out at 60p .It would be nice to do it again.Have a look at CPT Gray they look to be ain a similar situation to TRC. They have not declared a buy back yet ,there is a good chance of it.

[gray1107] 29/6/2009 12:15

After mulling it over for some time I ducked out with my small holding last week taking 50%. Many thanks to RBCRBC for pointing me to this one, buyback worked as expected with the little bit of uncertainty later on.

[rbcrbc] 26/6/2009 21:29

I posted this in the other place today:



how deep could the sag sag?

Who knows but if you catch it within 10% of the bottom that'd be a great catch.

Looking at the chart TA would see some support at 40p both on the way down and back up. So my target to get back on-board is 40p or 22nd July when I suspect buying by speculators will start again.

I doubt we will get news before the results, it'd be funny to give news without a total situation update.

QVC post 27th July, Tender offers is the obvious answer, with limited or no buy-back support.

This could be another very good situation if it hits around 40p, although when the climb starts before 27th July it will move fast, I suspect the MM's wont be understanding this as well as we do and will not be holding much stock - as evidenced today in the moves on reasonably small volums.

I just hope that CPT issue an update well before their AGM on July 21st so we can see some upside there to cycle into this one ;-)

This could be fun.....

[badtime] 26/6/2009 19:58

Wise move me thinks....off a tad today as well

[rbcrbc] 24/6/2009 11:19

OK we seem to be rapidly approcahing the time where the limits set in the RNS of 27th May:


The Board of the Company today announces the terms of its share buyback program.
The Company will seek to purchase and cancel up to 19,384,648 ordinary shares of
1p each ("Ordinary Shares") as part of its share buyback program. No more than
10 million Ordinary Shares however will be purchased on any given day. The price
to be paid for any Ordinary Shares acquired will not be more than 5 per cent.
above the average market value for the five business days prior to the day the
purchase is made, up to a maximum of 60 pence per Ordinary Share.

....

Since the announcement on 24 March 2009 of the Company's intention to effect
returns of capital to shareholders, the Company has purchased for cancellation
3,250,000 Ordinary Shares,


Is about to be met:

Since the announcement on 24 March 2009 of the Company's intention to effect
returns of capital to shareholders, the Company has now purchased for
cancellation 20,379,837 ordinary shares, following which the current issued
share capital of the Company is 211,420,363.


I have recently sold out completely from here for now.

It is difficult to know if the 60p level will hold until prelims are out on 27th July, or if we will see a souffle effect which could create a good buying opportunity.

I am still very optomistic that after 27 July there is great potential for prices above 60p and am very likely to buy back in just before or after 27th July.

As the company is now in a close period it is difficult to see how they could issue new buy-back instructions to their brokers.

[grahamg8] 23/6/2009 14:07

I wish they would tell me how to buy shares at below the mid market price. Perhaps I could also sell them above the mid market too and make an absolute fortune. Meanwhile without the key to the holy grail we wait to see what unfolds at the end of July.

[papy02] 23/6/2009 11:28

I see today's buyback transaction RNS shows an incorrect number of shares-in-issue-remaining (has gone up since last RNS!) - I have left a voicemail for TRC Investor Relations.

[badtime] 18/6/2009 21:54

thy sed thy wudnt buy any north of 60p..i guess thts what he means

[mark1000] 18/6/2009 18:30

Graham
Why can it not be TRC?

[grahamg8] 17/6/2009 11:10

Curious this morning at 11.00 it's all sells and yet the share price has actually gone up! Surely this means there is a large buyer hidden away somewhere? But it can't be TRC as the price is >60p, and it can't be QVT because they are right on the brink of breaching 30%. A waiting game it seems or perhaps reduce/exit like ilostthelot. For the holders looking to go all the way to 80-100p with a a following wind we have another chance of breaking significantly above the current resistance level at 60p

[ilostthelot] 16/6/2009 15:49

I am out for the time being. Bought at 42p sold at 60.5p so a decent return.

[grahamg8] 12/6/2009 08:42

QVT built up their holding during 2007 to reach 69.01m on 7 Feb 2008 which was 29.77% at that time. They look to have sold down to 62.54m (29.06%) in order to avoid triggering a compulsory take over bid. But if they were at all worried about the near term future of the share price then the buy back would have been an ideal opportunity to have made a larger reduction. Holding on at near the maximum permitted level seems to confirm that QVT at least expect the price to moving beyond 60p for reasons that have been amply covered in previous posts. If it's good enough for them it's good enough for me.

[badtime] 11/6/2009 20:01

Lol..don't worr i top sliced half way thru this rise ..doh!

[rbcrbc] 10/6/2009 14:30

I just posted this in the other place:



OK So my speculation of 27th May:

QVT & Carrousel may not be too happy if scottish widows want all the buy-back money, so they can sell out for less if they want ......

Proved not quite correct, it was Scottish widows who wanted out at 60p, but not all the way out.


They have now dropped to 12.6m shares and 5.85% from 6.72% when there were 228.5m shares in issue so they had 15.35m or so allowing for some rounding it almost tallys with todays RNS.

Three interesting things:

1) SW have RNS'ed on the drop from 15.25m to 12.6m, I believe that if they were still in the process of off-loading then they would be allowed to hold back on the RNS until they finish. So on the basis that Lloyds and SW probably dont know less than me about reporting rules I conclude that SW have finished selling, and wanted to raise £1.65m for some reason.

2) The 27th May RNS stated 228.55m shares in issue up to 19.384m to be bought back, Todays RNS states 216.5m shares in issue, so we have the facility to purchase 7.3m left at up to 60p.

3) We are getting both buys and sells today above 60p

I suspect we will see:
- No more buy-backs
- A slow drift upwards or steady around 61-65p
- A new announcement at prelims time on 27th July of the cash that was due to be realised with 3 months of the AGM, and current NAV and the next step on return of capital to shareholders.

A breathing space of 6 weeks for those who want to trade out or slice.

Maybe WShak was right to get out, I dont see much happening for a while. So I have top-sliced a few myself today.

Although I am fairly good at seeing opportunities (even if I do say so myself) I am generally useless at geting out at the right time!

[grahamg8] 10/6/2009 09:29

Smicker, interesting point that I hadn't thought about but it could well make sense. RBCRBC, I like your comments in #579. Certainly a pause for breath at around 60p is quite likely. But the optimists may well still have the upper hand as the share price has gone up again this morning even though there are more sells than buys, albeit on low volumes. Even with the buy back now on hold with the price >60p the relentless upward movement may well just keep on going, IMO probably losing momentum from mid July onward as the results on 27th approach.
At 3 to 5p per week we could get to 75-85p nicely bracketing that first resistance level.

[rbcrbc] 09/6/2009 09:32

So only 4m of yesterdays trades were the buy-back, I was getting worried it might have been more, surely that is excellent news and means people are buying at these prices.

[smicker] 08/6/2009 22:32

Is it possible that TRC contacted the major shareholders and asked them to nominate a price at which they would be prepared to sell sufficient quantities to use up available cash and hence the limit to the buyback price and no complaints from the activist shareholder?

[eeza] 08/6/2009 15:02

The 60p trades must be delayed buys, else the share price would have dropped.

[mrwhippey] 08/6/2009 14:27

3.7m sell went through at 12.54 (60p) with a value of £2.22 million. This is obviously institutional selling. What are the odds of this being QVT themselves starting to cash in at 60p?

[ilostthelot] 08/6/2009 13:54

Great volume today the company must have been buying a big wack today. 60p will be tough resistance IMO. Sideways trading until the 27th july IMO.

Time to sell ? Maybe out and back in by the 27th. Just an idea.

ATB

[rbcrbc] 08/6/2009 12:40

Where to from here ?

A chartist will point to resistance at 80p
A Psycologist will point to the 100p barrier
An Optimist will look at 138p NAV.
A realist will look at the prelims on 27th July before answering ;-)