Tribal Share Discussion Threads

[its the oxman] 23/6/2014 17:25

Shame to see the most senior management simply deciding to sell all the shares that they were granted recently. Could be reasons but doesn't boost my confidence.

[illtud] 23/6/2014 17:08

I have a lot of confidence in Tribal. I like their products, the way they have recovered from the previous management's disastrous policies, entirely self funded and how the company is expanding internationally.

The downside, if you can call it that, is that there are not that many people interested in them and the IC article was goodish and not brilliant.

I am confident that the shares will pick up when people realise how the company's business is performing but that might not be until later in the year.

[johnwise] 23/6/2014 12:23

Reassuring to see a Director buying more of the Company.. cost him £45+ grand, you don't spend that much if you are not confident of the Company's progress..


Tribal Group PLC Director/PDMR Shareholding

23/06/2014

Tribal Group plc ("the Company") has been notified of the following purchases of ordinary shares of the Company.

On 20 June 2014, Robin Crewe purchased 25,000 ordinary shares in the Company at a price of 189.82p per share. Following this purchase, the number of ordinary shares in the Company in which Robin Crewe and his connected persons are beneficially interested is 25,000 or 0.03% of the Company's total issued share capital.

[illtud] 23/6/2014 10:55

I wouldn't be surprised if it drifts lower

[gucci] 23/6/2014 09:13

small spread just bought some at 180.25 - posted as a sell

[illtud] 20/6/2014 07:32

But I wish they didn't issue all those extra shares

[illtud] 18/6/2014 18:34

The IC article was a bit like the curate's egg. Good in parts

I feel that they missed a bit out regarding Tribal's history - Tribal's 'poor' track record. It wasn't mentioned but I think it may have been partly responsible for the high risk rating that IC gave it.

The way I see Tribal is that those day are over and now are only represented in the remaining debt that was inherited fom the bad old days. The new management has reduced that debt very quickly over the past few couple of years and it is now at a much lower level than it originally was.

Tribal has reinvented itself and is now a different business.

Personally, I have confidence in the way that Tribal is currently being managed and continue to hold.

[illtud] 16/6/2014 22:58

The main points in the IC write-up were:

Bull points:

*Market leading position in UK education
*International expansion
*High-profile recent client wins
*Strong balance sheet

Bear points:

*Second-half weighting
*Diminishing work for Ofsted

IC tip rating:

Tip style: SPECULATIVE
Risk rating: HIGH
Timescale: LONGTERM

Round up:

'The shares sre trsding at a 15 per cent discount to their 52-week high and on a 2014 forward earnings multiple of under 14 times. That's a sizeable discount to the 29 times average of software services peer group. If Tribal can keep building on its international momentum - and all the signs are that it will - it doesn't take a universty professor to work out there is a substantial re-rating potential.
Buy.'

[welsheagle] 14/6/2014 19:59

Simon Gordon,
Think there was a good write-up in IC this week.

[simon gordon] 13/6/2014 13:58

Was wondering where all the buyers were coming from this morning, quick look at the IC website to see it's been tipped by them.

[simon gordon] 02/6/2014 14:46

WHI Ireland - 2/6/14:

2014
EPS - 13.4p

2015
EPS - 14.5p

Upgrades and share price upside

We have upgraded our numbers on the back of today's announcement, by 7% in the first full year (PBT) and 6% (EPS). Following from Thursday's OFSTED announcement, which showed TRB letting go of some of its more marginal and less profitable work, today's announcement should serve as a reminder of some of the key strengths of a business which is growing both organically and by acquisition. We believe there is decent upside from a PE of no more than 12x for FY2015E.

[illtud] 02/6/2014 07:26

Interesting news this morning:

'Tribal Group plc ("Tribal"), a leading provider of technology enabled management solutions to the international education, learning and training markets, is pleased to announce that it has acquired the entire share capital of Human Edge Software Corporation Pty Ltd ("Human Edge"), a provider of student management systems primarily to the Australian schools market.



Human Edge is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia, with a software development centre based in Manila, Philippines. Human Edge systems support approximately 1,900 schools and education management organisations throughout Australia and South East Asia.



The Human Edge installed customer base is predominantly in non-state operated Catholic and private schools in New South Wales and Victoria. This is highly complementary to the New South Wales state school network across which Tribal's software is currently being deployed through the New South Wales Student Administration and Learning Management (SALM) programme. Following completion of the SALM programme, Tribal expects to be providing student management systems to over 25% of schools across Australia.



The acquisition is expected to be earnings accretive in its first full year in the Tribal Group. Total consideration for the entire share capital of Human Edge on a debt-free/cash-free basis will be A$15.23 million, satisfied in cash.



The unaudited revenue and normalised operating profit of Human Edge for the year ended 30 June 2013 was A$7.3m and A$2.0m respectively and the value of gross assets at that date was A$13.0m.



Keith Evans, Chief Executive of Tribal, commented: "Our strategic focus is to deliver technology-based systems and solutions which support management teams across education institutions. Bringing together Human Edge with our work for the New South Wales SALM programme establishes Tribal as a leading provider of schools management solutions in Australia and enhances our existing global credentials in schools student management systems."'

[illtud] 01/6/2014 19:23

I agree with you, OXMAN.

[its the oxman] 30/5/2014 13:15

Tribal says outlook unchanged but must be some impact. Shame as I like the story but feel it is sensible to wait for next results now.

[simon gordon] 29/5/2014 19:13

BBC News - 29/5/14:

Ofsted is to stop contracting out inspections of schools and colleges and will only use directly employed inspectors from September 2015.

The announcement from England's education watchdog will mean that inspectors will be managed in-house.

Most inspectors assessing schools are currently employed by outsourced private contractors.

Ofsted says it will mean direct control over the "selection, training and quality assurance" of inspectors.

The change will come when current contracts with groups such as Serco and Tribal expire in August next year.

Chief inspector Sir Michael Wilshaw has previously said: "Inspection, as far as I'm concerned, is just too important for Ofsted to simply have oversight of third-party arrangements."

Head teachers' leaders immediately welcomed the change as a way of improving the consistency of inspections.

It will mean that the "additional inspectors" who are currently employed by private contractors will become directly managed by Ofsted.

'Efficient and flexible'

These are a majority of inspectors, who carry out the day-to-day inspections and evaluations of schools and colleges.

The current outsourcing contracts have been running since 2009, but will not be extended further.

A statement from Nick Jackson, of Ofsted, said that with the conclusion of these contracts "the time was right to look again at how Ofsted can best deliver a service that is both efficient and flexible".

Russell Hobby, general secretary of the National Association of Head Teachers, welcomed the change.

"The variability of delivery is one of the profession's biggest concerns," he said.

"Ofsted needs to be sure that its own internal quality assurance is up to spec, though. It is inspecting too many things too frequently for us to be entirely confident about quality."

The move was also welcomed by Malcolm Trobe, deputy general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders.

But he wanted the changes to go further to ensure the quality of inspection teams.

"We believe HMIs should lead the inspection service. The inspection workforce should involve serving or recently retired school leaders who work directly for Ofsted and who receive the calibre of training needed to support the work of HMIs leading to a skilled, knowledgeable and respected inspection team."

[simon gordon] 29/5/2014 16:43

RNS - 29/5/14:

Statement re Ofsted

Tribal notes the announcement this afternoon by Ofsted regarding changes to its future approach to inspections of schools and colleges.

Tribal confirms that its expectations for 2014, 2015 and 2016 are unchanged by this announcement and it does not alter the Board's outlook for the Group.

Tribal's strategic objective continues to be focussed on providing technology-enabled management and performance improvement solutions to the international education market, in which the Group is achieving increasing success and momentum.

=====

I can't find anything on Google about the changes.

[illtud] 22/5/2014 09:21

irchris. That is exactly as I see it.

Not only that, it is no small thing for a university to take on a new system and once the new 'Tribal' system is installed, it is an even bigger deal to change it again. That is why Tribal can be so confident that they will probably keep their university contracts.

It would take a much better rival system coming on the market to upset the apple cart. Nothing has appeared yet.

[irchris] 21/5/2014 11:01

We shouldn't get too hung up on the "weighting towards the second half of the year". Tribals customers are in the education sector, and as such the customers generally work to an academic year calendar. This is probably the reason why new sales and consultancy may be weighted in certain months as they may want to wait to the start of a new academic year to implement a new solution so that they only need to use one system rather than several for a particular academic year. The important thing to take from the mention of a second half weighting is that it is totally typical for this company to have more income in the second half of the year than the first, and it doesn't matter when you look at it over a longer view (at least a year) which half of the year the income actually slotted into.

[illtud] 20/5/2014 08:30

I haven't looked back as you have. I might just do that.

The 2nd half weighting has been mentioned in previous years but perhaps by Hardman & Co, the analysts.

I take your point about the difference between 2013 and 2014 and thank you for your advice, however, I remain confident so I'll stick with this one.

I've tried trading before but I prefer to play a longer game now : )

[simon gordon] 17/5/2014 12:55

Illtud,

I appreciate what you are saying but TRB do mention that earnings are more 2nd half weighted than in 2013.

16/5/14:

"As a result of anticipated timing of some important contract closures and software installations, our profits in 2014 will show a greater weighting towards the second half of the year than in 2013. We remain confident of the outturn for the full year. "

-

17/5/13:

"Trading since our year end has been in line with our expectations for 2013. As anticipated at the start of the year, our profits are likely to be weighted towards the second half of the year."

-

16/5/12:

There is no mention of a 2nd half weighting...

"Tribal Group plc ("Tribal"), a leading provider of technology products and services to the education, learning and training markets in the UK and internationally, provides the following update on trading, covering the period from 1 January 2012 to 15 May 2012.

Trading since our year end has been in line with our expectations for 2012. Our order book at the end of April was GBP193 million, an increase of 9% since 31 December 2011. Our net debt levels remain in line with our expectations for the full year.

The current year is a period of further investment in Tribal, as we establish the resources to deliver our three year strategic objectives, and we are pleased with our progress on our key initiatives."

=====

2014 EPS forecast range is 12.2p to 12.9p:

12.2p - 186p = 15.2x

12.9p - 186p = 14.4x

I can't see the shares rising until they prove up 2014 which might not be be confirmed until Q4. If a contract slips and TRB hit 12p and are given a rating of 13x = 156p.

I will continue to follow the story and wish you well.

[illtud] 16/5/2014 12:12

simon gordon,

As you probably know,I have been following Tribal for some years and have a fair amount of confidence in the company.

I like their products, especially SITS VISION. They don't seem to have any real competition for it. Their recovery is entirely internal, their growth is organic, they are making consistently good, growing profits and significantly reducing their debt, year on year. I also like the cautious approach of the current BOD.

The statement about profits being weighted towards the 2nd half of the year is their routine statement that they always make at this time of the year.

In Tribal's case, it is not really a note of caution. More a statement of fact because the 2nd half of the year is when they seem to get in most of their income.

illtud

[the drewster] 16/5/2014 10:43

With suitably deep pockets, and a good dose of patience, I think there are some financially life changing opportunities beginning to emerge in the small cap sector.

[simon gordon] 16/5/2014 10:21

IIltud,

"2014 will show a greater weighting towards the second half of the year than in 2013."

I have sold most of my small cap holdings, including TRB, as I am cautious on the market.